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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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C

Cloudy

Banned
BTW Obama has to find a way to diffuse this Libya thing like now or Romney is just gonna attack him with it in the FP debate
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Cloudy said:
BTW Obama has to find a way to diffuse this Libya thing like now or Romney is just gonna attack him with it in the FP debate
Click to expand...

100%. Romney has the perfect opportunity with the messaging errors on the part of the team to exploit Obama on one of his best strengths: Foreign policy.
 
7

786110

Member
Cloudy said:
BTW Obama has to find a way to diffuse this Libya thing like now or Romney is just gonna attack him with it in the FP debate
Click to expand...

I think it will come up during the town hall given it's focused both on foreign and domestic issues, and it seems far more prescient in the public's mind then anything else.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
100%. Romney has the perfect opportunity with the messaging errors on the part of the team to exploit Obama on one of his best strengths: Foreign policy.
Click to expand...

They need to just say information was wrong. We were under pressure to put something out there ASAP and it was wrong. The failure to have a top official come out and just say that makes this a "who knew what and when" story that the other side will use to hammer them every day.

Hopefully Obama is asked about this in his interview today with Sawyer
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
It's rather interesting how after the USS Cole, there wasn't the same level of partisan level scoring that is now playing out after the Benghazi incident.

More or less, the message was that we needed to come together.

It seems that only under Obama, that the immediate response to an attack is to assault the sitting President as weak.
 
D

DEO3

Member
I've been slammed for the past week and haven't been able to pay much attention to current events. So, uh, what the hell happened? Surely this isn't all from last week's debate? I was under the impression debates historically didn't matter all that much.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Cheebo said:
"Independents in the Fox poll swung from 44%-39% for Obama, to 42%-32% for Romney from the same poll before the debate."

Big reason for the shift to Romney.
Click to expand...

That seems wrong. I can't possibly imagine that big of a swing.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Sirpopopop said:
It's rather interesting how after the USS Cole, there wasn't the same level of partisan level scoring that is now playing out after the Benghazi incident.

More or less, the message was that we needed to come together.

It seems that only under Obama, that the immediate response to an attack is to assault the sitting President as weak.
Click to expand...

Democrats don't do this kind of shit. That said, they have to respond because the media won't let it go till someone takes the fall and the GOP won't let it go till Nov. 7th
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
DEO3 said:
I've been slammed for the past week and haven't been able to pay much attention to current events. So, uh, what the hell happened? Surely this isn't all from last week's debate? I was under the impression debates historically didn't matter all that much.
Click to expand...

Debate went great for Romney. Heavy shift in his direction. I think most of the more patient posters on here realize that what will PROBABLY happen is that the numbers will start to normalize soon. Several years from now we'll look at the data and once again conclude that "debates don't matter." Unfortunately we're all stuck in the here and now and don't have the privilege of looking at a month's worth of poll data in the blink of an eye.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
DEO3 said:
I've been slammed for the past week and haven't been able to pay much attention to current events. So, uh, what the hell happened? Surely this isn't all from last week's debate? I was under the impression debates historically didn't matter all that much.
Click to expand...

it is

it looks like things are sorta stabilizing though. tomorrow will be the first day in the 7-day trackers that the immediate aftermath of the debate will subside. if things are decently better (say +1 or +2 in obama's favor) tomorrow, and continue to improve, then it'll just be due to the huge advantage romney had immediately after the debate no longer being tracked.

or maybe that's friday, i dunno. monday will be a different story though, with the vp debates and any possible problems from that.
 
D

DataStream

Member
Cheebo said:
"Independents in the Fox poll swung from 44%-39% for Obama, to 42%-32% for Romney from the same poll before the debate."

Big reason for the shift to Romney.
Click to expand...

This seems like Romney consolidating support mixed with Obama supporters being really embarrassed by his performance in the debate and not feeling comfortable saying they support him.
 
F

Forever

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I know the Joe Walsh fuckery was posted already so I won't comment on his specific comment/photo, but watching it I'm rather impressed by Duckworth's answer in relation to Medicare:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...Pick-Backfires-On-America-s-Biggest-Douchebag

Very clear, concise answer wrapped in some sarcasm. Politico had a story earlier about the Ryan plan not being the weapon dems thought it would be, and I think this goes back to poor messaging; republicans tend to be much better at simple messaging than democrats. Duckworth got to the heart of the issue rather effortlessly though: an old woman is not going to do better negotiating on her own with an insurance company, nor is she better off with a health care coupon as opposed to having Medicare.
Click to expand...

Awesome.

Members of the audience booed profusely, but Walsh wasn’t fazed. He went on to address his criticism of Duckworth picking out her clothes for the Democratic convention — by holding up the photo.

The audience booed again, very loudly, as Walsh was finishing his statement. For her part, Duckworth accused Walsh of trying to distract from the issues — and she got in a kicker of her own.

“And yes, I do sometimes look at the clothes that I wear,” she said. “But for most of my adult life, I’ve worn one color — it’s called camouflage.”
Click to expand...
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Souldriver said:
Because you ignore me, probably the moment you realized the point I was making is valid.

Pre debate:
PPP: -5
Rasmussen: -15
Average: -10


Post debate:
PPP: -10
Rasmussen: ?
Average: ?


You say that PPP just adjusted itself to the polling average. But you use the polling average pre-debate. And we all know the every poll has tightened since the debate.

Therefore, I point out that given the overal trend, it's more realistic that a new potential Rasmussen poll will also show a decent drop for Obama, therefore changing the polling average, and making your whole analysis incorrect.

If you are honest, you'll have to admit that it's probably more likely that all polls will show and Obama drop, instead of PPP adjusting itself to the mean while the other polls somehow remain constant.
Click to expand...

I didn't ignore you. I addressed this.

The average was not -10. The average was -7 (with PPP included). Without PPP it's probably closer to -8 and right around where Silver put it (-8.8).

What you seem to not be understanding is that this new PPP poll being -10 doesn't necessarily mean a 5 point post debate switch. What it could mean is PPP's last poll being 3 points off due to random sampling noise (which is common) and showing a TWO point post debate swing. I'm saying their last poll was too tight, NOT BECAUSE OF METHOD BUT BECAUSE OF RANDOMNESS. If they ran that poll 100 times, they'd be closer to -8 rather than -5, but thems the breaks.

Hence, the new number is closer to reality. So if the true pre-date average is -8 and there's a 2-3 point post debate swing, it would be around 10-11.


edit: And you won't have a uniform bounce among polls because they use different methods. Methods will over-state and under-state a bounce. If PPP actually showed a 5 point swing from a bounce, Ras can show 1. It's wholly consistent.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Cloudy said:
Democrats don't do this kind of shit. That said, they have to respond because the media won't let it go till someone takes the fall and the GOP won't let it go till Nov. 7th
Click to expand...


Cole was under Clinton.

No one needs to take the fall. That just plays into the blame game. See: Van Jones.

Obama just needs to point out that he's curbed down the attacks on diplomatic missions to a far less amount than the attacks under Bush, Clinton & Reagan. He needs to point out that in times past, Americans came together and were united in their response in these issues. He needs to ask Mitt Romney why he is choosing to divert from this path of being united in finding an answer, and is instead choosing to sow division and dissent, and complicate the matter.

Bottom line: Someone doesn't need to take a fall. Obama needs to show that the Republicans are being unreasonable and naive here.
 
S

Souldriver

Member
Black Mamba said:
I didn't ignore you. I addressed this.

The average was not -10. The average was -7 (with PPP included). Without PPP it's probably closer to -8 and right around where Silver put it (-8.8).

What you seem to not be understanding is that this new PPP poll being -10 doesn't necessarily mean a 5 point post debate switch. What it could mean is PPP's last poll being 3 points off due to random sampling noise (which is common) and showing a TWO point post debate swing. I'm saying their last poll was too tight, NOT BECAUSE OF METHOD BUT BECAUSE OF RANDOMNESS. If they ran that poll 100 times, they'd be closer to -8 rather than -5, but thems the breaks.
Click to expand...
But that's... pure guessing from your part? If I read correct, you're saying that PPP's previous result was "within the margin of error but ended up favorable to Obama", while now it is "within the margin of error, but closer to reality". Or am I again reading you wrong?
 
T

Touchdown

Banned
fallagin said:
You know I couldn't put my finger on it before, but Mitt reminds me of the cybernetic ghost of christmas past from the future.
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lol ..... and this....

tumblr_mbfv5idquY1rc8pwco1_500.gif

tumblr_mbfv5idquY1rc8pwco2_500.jpg
 
S

Snake

Member
Prediction for NBC/WSJ tomorrow:

OH: 49-48 O
VA: 48-47 R
FL: 47-47 tie

If the numbers are better than that I'll be very happy.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Souldriver said:
But that's... pure guessing from your part? If I read correct, you're saying that PPP's previous result was "within the margin of error but ended up favorable to Obama", while now it is "within the margin of error, but closer to reality". Or am I again reading you wrong?
Click to expand...

With an obvious Romney bump from the debate, yes.

Of course it's guessing, but it's not blind. I'm using the other data points to make that claim.

It's why you never take 1 poll on its own. It can say +5 but really be +8 and be totally consistent with the +5 answer. You can't take 2 polls and say there's a definite switch.

Measuring bounces can only be done with a lot of polls mixed in. One or two won't cut it. What one or two polls tell you is like "Romney is +5 with MoE of 3, therefore he has a 92% chance of winning based on this poll).


edit: PPP is saying Gary Johnson is eating at Obama's numbers. Obama and Johnson are pretty much opposites. Silly voters.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
Godslay said:
Is it really though? I haven't heard it mentioned (mainstream media, not cable news) all week.
Click to expand...

Abc news (world news tonight) led with an obama interview tonight, and it was all about the debate. "How bad was it?.... What happened?... Can you explain it?... Is it possible you lost the election that night?..."

No, I'm not exaggerating or paraphrasing, that was the nature of the interview.

His epic fail has dominated the mainstream news cycle for an entire week; never seen anything like it.

His responses were solid and focused on romney's lies, fwiw.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
gkryhewy said:
Yes, because it makes sense that a handkerchief would unfold perfectly flat and he'd want it to be present on top of his podium.
Click to expand...

It's white, it's folded into a rectangle, and he uses a white, rectangularly folded handkerchief later in the debate. So...
 
7

786110

Member
gkryhewy said:
Abc news (world news tonight) led with an obama interview tonight, and it was all about the debate. "How bad was it?.... What happened?... Can you explain it?... Is it possible you lost the election that night?..."

No, I'm not exaggerating or paraphrasing, that was the nature of the interview.

His epic fail has dominated the mainstream news cycle for an entire week; never seen anything like it.

His responses were solid and focused on romney's lies, fwiw.
Click to expand...

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/obama-sawyer-romney-president-interview-debate-politics-us-17446753

How much more was there?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
I was skimming through just now and thought all those posts were actual poll results, until I found the call for predictions. So. Confused.
 
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