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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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benjipwns

Banned
You keep repeating stock words and phrases common and thinking this makes your argument substantive.
No, I'm using specific terms from Human Action.

In a way, both of you guys are agreeing with the book while arguing against it.

Human Action and praxeology != Austrian Economics. They contribute, but Austrian Economics has gone off on its own thing well past Mises. Where they agree is that econometrics aren't adding very much valuable information beyond their underlying logical axioms.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
And yeah, note the EPA case. Scalia is a shitstain, ruling against himself -- either that or he is senile and should promptly retire (wishful thinking)...

Is this about EPA v. EME Homer City Generation? In that case, Scalia didn't "rule against himself." He misstated the EPA's argument in a prior case (by confusing it with the argument of the other party in that case). But in both cases, Scalia said the EPA couldn't do what it was trying to do in EME Homer.

I'm just waiting for Metaphoreus to make his Superkyro post and then all of this can be over.

I don't know what this means, but "Super" sounds awesome and I could use a funny link. So, source?

I think he's a lawyer. The kind of partisan one politicans ring up all the time. At least that's what he is aspiring to be...

xZt3KPW.png
 
Delurking to say that Black Mamba v. Metaphoreus is why I read PoliGAF now.

Knowing very little about how the law works, I find these exchanges very informative (and maybe a bit entertaining). I knew that the ACA was a massive pitfall of nuance, but never any of the details until this thread and some OTs dug into it.

Anyway, err, carry on!
 

Chumly

Member

Gruber noted that his own analysis assumed subsidies would be available in every state. He added that it was "never contemplated by anybody who modeled or worked on this law that availability of subsides would be conditional of who ran the exchanges."
Sounds pretty convincing to me. If they never even contemplated or ran analysis that some states wouldn't get subsidies based off who ran it.... Looks like it was always intended for everyone to get them.
 
So your argument is that humans are entirely predictable at all times due to "factors" and thus mushing them into a handful of variables is strong science and absolutely not axiomatic in any way?

I'm just trying to understand why people are so vehemently against the idea that individuals have their own motivations and can therefore engage in unpredictable but purposeful behavior.

No I'm not saying humans are predictable at all times. I'm saying that we can take many people and draw inferences from that how populations react and will react. You're against that because random people can do unpredictable things, that doesn't negate looking at history and the vast majority of people to draw inferences and decide what the best polices are.

No, I'm using specific terms from Human Action.

In a way, both of you guys are agreeing with the book while arguing against it.

Human Action and praxeology != Austrian Economics. They contribute, but Austrian Economics has gone off on its own thing well past Mises. Where they agree is that econometrics aren't adding very much valuable information beyond their underlying logical axioms.

I'm not agreeing with the book. I'm an empiricist. I don't trust 'logic' in the abstract.

Praxeology rests on the fundamental axiom that individual human beings act, that is, on the primordial fact that individuals engage in conscious actions toward chosen goals. This concept of action contrasts to purely reflexive, or knee-jerk, behavior, which is not directed toward goals. The praxeological method spins out by verbal deduction the logical implications of that primordial fact

This is bullshit. People don't consciously chose every action, and even if they have choices they have fundamental constraints based on their experiences and biology. Praxeology is pseudoscience, its crap. No serious person besides someone who wants a certain politic end (namely lower taxes and less government, aka the entrenchment of current economic and political power) would advocate it.

The entirety of it is 'deducted' from something that's factually wrong.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Praxeology is pseudoscience, its crap.
It's not pseudoscience because it never claims to be a science. It's philosophy like the rest of economics, political science, history, sociology, etc.

You're against that because random people can do unpredictable things, that doesn't negate looking at history and the vast majority of people to draw inferences and decide what the best polices are.
You don't decide policy through empiricism, it's decided through morals.

No serious person besides someone who wants a certain politic end (namely lower taxes and less government, aka the entrenchment of current economic and political power) would advocate it.
This doesn't compute because almost every "Austrian" of fame opposes the entrenchment and cementing of power and status quo. Mises alone probably wrote about five books against politics that entrench power for example.

It's the Austrian/Hayekian opponents who seem to reject the fact that all knowledge including knowledge of the future is not perfectly knowable in the immediate.

This is bullshit. People don't consciously chose every action, and even if they have choices they have fundamental constraints based on their experiences and biology.
...
The entirety of it is 'deducted' from something that's factually wrong.
I think you should probably read the book (or at least the rest of that Rothbard article) before you go off continuing to agree yet arguing against what you think something is.

But feel free to choose any action you wish.
 
Here's the main issue. Axioms are for laying the foundation for how you even begin to think about something. They're pretty much the ground rules for everything that comes after. In philosophy, you're talking about how things can exist seperately from other things. In math, this is on a lower level than addition. In geometry, you're talking about what a "point" and "line" mean. In science, it includes the assumption that natural laws hold true over time and distance.

Even if you think human behavior is too mysterious to be accurately modeled, defining it by axiom and then extrapolating a model from that can lead to wildly inaccurate results that remain internally consistent. In other words, you have recommendations for austerity and then a total inability to handle the fact that it isn't fucking working. This is pretty much religious behavior, not scientific behavior.

And in this case, I don't even know if it is internally consistent. Most of its outcomes are predicted by ignoring accumulated interactions. Which will always lead to a participant making all the right choices.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
It's not pseudoscience because it never claims to be a science. It's philosophy like the rest of economics, political science, history, sociology, etc.


You don't decide policy through empiricism, it's decided through morals.

Deciding economic policy through morals seems like a completely useless way to decide policy, in particular because, unlike something like gay marriage (okay yeah you can argue it has economic implications, irrelevant to my point) we have very real variables like GDP, employment, mean and median incomes, etc that we're trying to influence. Are you literally arguing that we can't draw inferences from economic history in order to devise future policy?

benjipwns said:
This doesn't compute because almost every "Austrian" of fame opposes the entrenchment and cementing of power and status quo. Mises alone probably wrote about five books against politics that entrench power for example.

It's the Austrian/Hayekian opponents who seem to reject the fact that all knowledge including knowledge of the future is not perfectly knowable in the immediate.

They may want that, but I've never heard an argument for how such measures wouldn't lead to entrenched power that don't ultimately come back to variations on "the market will naturally break up monopolies" and "people always act in their best interest" (hint: its actually "people always act in what they think is their best interest")

See, my problem with the Austrian school and the whole "unpredictability" think is that it never actually results in economic agnosticism. No-one ever says "we can't predict how people will behave, so economic policy is inherently pointless", they always say "we can't predict how people will behave, so rather then inferring from past market behavior what policy should look like we should instead infer from my vaguely defined conceptions of human nature what policy should look like". Its just basing things on an even flimsier footing.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Deciding economic policy through morals seems like a completely useless way to decide policy, in particular because, unlike something like gay marriage (okay yeah you can argue it has economic implications, irrelevant to my point) we have very real variables like GDP, employment, mean and median incomes, etc that we're trying to influence. Are you literally arguing that we can't draw inferences from economic history in order to devise future policy?
I was arguing that Mises and others are arguing that you're chasing your own tail. Econometrics aren't actually giving you more useful information and you aren't influencing them in the manner you think. GDP, employment, mean incomes, etc. just aren't all that important or relevant because of the noise level.

My statement about policy being decided through morals is mine (I don't want to ascribe to Mises or anyone what they may or may not have said) and does apply to all policy.

To use an example, if tax cuts "worked" no one would know or not and their policy objectives would not change with this information because they've already decided their morals of higher/lower taxes.

Definitions of tax cuts and worked being more important than any empirical models results.

They may want that, but I've never heard an argument for how such measures wouldn't lead to entrenched power that don't ultimately come back to variations on "the market will naturally break up monopolies" and "people always act in their best interest" (hint: its actually "people always act in what they think is their best interest")
The last part is the last thing you'd need to tell Austrians.

Maybe decentralizing and democratizing power won't work out all that well, but it certainly makes more sense than further entrenching power so that it can...un-entrench itself by...gathering more power?

EDIT:
See, my problem with the Austrian school and the whole "unpredictability" think is that it never actually results in economic agnosticism. No-one ever says "we can't predict how people will behave, so economic policy is inherently pointless", they always say "we can't predict how people will behave, so rather then inferring from past market behavior what policy should look like we should instead infer from my vaguely defined conceptions of human nature what policy should look like". Its just basing things on an even flimsier footing.
I view it more as "stop trying, you're just making things worse" or something along those lines. That was certainly the tone of Mises and Hayek's better books.
 

benjipwns

Banned
For you Tech, since it was in the Rothbard article APK quoted from:
Ludwig von Mises said:
here are, in the field of economics, no constant relations, and consequently no measurement is possible. If a statistician determines that a rise of 10 percent in the supply of potatoes in Atlantis at a definite time was followed by a fall of 8 percent in the price, he does not establish anything about what happened or may happen with a change in the supply of potatoes in another country or in another time. He has not "measured" the "elasticity of demand" of potatoes. He has established a unique individual historical fact. No intelligent man can doubt that the behavior of men with regard to potatoes and every other commodity is variable. Different individuals value the same things in a different way, and valuations change with the same individuals with changing conditions.…

The impracticability of measurement is not due to the lack of technical methods for the establishment of measure. It is due to the absence of constant relations.… Economics is not, as … positivists repeat again and again, backward because it is not "quantitative." It is not quantitative and does not measure because there are no constants. Statistical figures referring to economic events are historical data. They tell us what happened in a nonrepeatable historical case. Physical events can be interpreted on the ground of our knowledge concerning constant relations established by experiments. Historical events are not open to such an interpretation.…

Experience of economic history is always experience of complex phenomena. It can never convey knowledge of the kind the experimenter abstracts from a laboratory experiment. Statistics is a method for the presentation of historical facts.… The statistics of prices is economic history. The insight that, ceteris paribus, an increase in demand must result in an increase in prices is not derived from experience. Nobody ever was or ever will be in a position to observe a change in one of the market data ceteris paribus. There is no such thing as quantitative economics. All economic quantities we know about are data of economic history.… Nobody is so bold as to maintain that a rise of A percent in the supply of any commodity must always — in every country and at any time — result in a fall of B percent in price. But as no quantitative economist ever ventured to define precisely on the ground of statistical experience the special conditions producing a definite deviation from the ratio A:B, the futility of his endeavors is manifest.[33]

...

The quantities we observe in the field of human action … are manifestly variable. Changes occurring in them plainly affect the result of our actions. Every quantity that we can observe is a historical event, a fact which cannot be fully described without specifying the time and geographical point.

The econometrician is unable to disprove this fact, which cuts the ground from under his reasoning. He cannot help admitting that there are no "behavior constants." Nonetheless, he wants to introduce some numbers, arbitrarily chosen on the basis of historical fact, as "unknown behavior constants." The sole excuse he advances is that his hypotheses are "saying only that these unknown numbers remain reasonably constant through a period of years."[34] Now whether such a period of supposed constancy of a definite number is still lasting or whether a change in the number has already occurred can only be established later on. In retrospect it may be possible, although in rare cases only, to declare that over a (probably rather short) period an approximately stable ratio which the econometrician chooses to call a "reasonably" constant ratio prevailed between the numerical values of two factors. But this is something fundamentally different from the constants of physics. It is the assertion of a historical fact, not of a constant that can be resorted to in attempts to predict future events.[35]The highly praised equations are, insofar as they apply to the future, merely equations in which all quantities are unknown.[36]

...

In the mathematical treatment of physics the distinction between constants and variables makes sense; it is essential in every instance of technological computation. In economics there are no constant relations between various magnitudes. Consequently all ascertainable data are variables, or what amounts to the same thing, historical data. The mathematical economists reiterate that the plight of mathematical economics consists in the fact that there are a great number of variables. The truth is that there are only variables and no constants. It is pointless to talk of variables where there are no invariables.[37]
Have at ye!

And since I know somebody really likes the disconnect between my politics and one of my hobbies, some random links:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/820953/201415/leaders.htm
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/820953/201415/projections.htm
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...8W6Iz0bIX6oZkZaT4C--A4-ys/edit#gid=1549587686
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
The last part is the last thing you'd need to tell Austrians.

Maybe decentralizing and democratizing power won't work out all that well, but it certainly makes more sense than further entrenching power so that it can...un-entrench itself by...gathering more power?

My concern with decentralization and "democratization" of power is that various powers (for our discussion broadly characterized as "private organizational power" and "public governmental power") have evolved in kind of an oppositional symbiosis. Yes, there are problems with collusion but lets be honest: capitalism could be much much worse from a human perspective. Limitations on things like child labor and working conditions and honesty in advertising are tangible checks and balances on the ability of private power to exploit individuals. What's my point here? My point is that those displays of "public power" did not exist until they were shown to be necessary. Much of the governments power is reactive, implemented in response to the behavior of private groups. Private power, in contrast, is historically proactive, and I think that the evolution of whatever system results from decentralization could be negative because of this

Look, lets say that we somehow, as a thought experiment, do manage to completely decentralize power in the United States, public and private. Government doesn't significantly extend beyond the level of the state, and companies like WalMart and Goldman Sachs do not enjoy market dominance. What mechanism would now exist to stop various private powers engaging in socially undesirable or shady practices in order to climb back up to as great or even greater levels of power? (or hell, even "on the level" practices that still lead to positions of monopoly, collusion, and market dominance)
I've never had this answered to my satisfaction. I don't like the idea of decentralization not out of any great love for the current system but because I worry it would be like a brushfire, tearing through all of the old growth that had achieved some level of stability and clearing the way for a new system that exceeds the previous one in scope and level of power.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
For you Tech, since it was in the Rothbard article APK quoted from:

Have at ye!

And since I know somebody really likes the disconnect between my politics and one of my hobbies, some random links:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/820953/201415/leaders.htm
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/820953/201415/projections.htm
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...8W6Iz0bIX6oZkZaT4C--A4-ys/edit#gid=1549587686
But again, he clearly still held economic beliefs. He believed in the gold standard. Clearly he didn't think that things were entirely unpredictable, since he "predicted" that abandoning the gold standard would be a bad thing. Which brings us right back to the basis for those predictions. And I'm just not convinced that so-called "axioms of human behavior" are a better basis for prediction than actual observation of past behavior.
 
Looks like there is a possibility we are heading towards another government shutdown.

All aboard the train!

Awhile ago I would have said no but now...perhaps the GOP feels Obama is properly beaten up for them to take him on in a shutdown fight. The last time they did it, it backfired and people were clearly on his side. This time, with everything turning to shit globally, multiple scandals, a lame duck president making erratic public decisions, a White House that changes its message weekly, approval ratings in the low 40s, [ed's note: this isn't my perception, just wat the GOP might be thinking], maybe NOW they think they can get away with it.

Especially if Obama goes through with that immigration executive order.
 

benjipwns

Banned
What's my point here? My point is that those displays of "public power" did not exist until they were shown to be necessary. Much of the governments power is reactive, implemented in response to the behavior of private groups.
See, this first part is where I disagree. I agree that it's reactive but that it wasn't shown to be necessary, instead it was enacted to maintain the status quo of power distribution. Often to ward off known upstarts. Many "necessary public power" acts like the federal minimum wage were enacted in part with the idea of harming blacks by increasing their barriers to challenging the status quo they were engaged in by offering their labor for wages under those of whites.

Almost all of public policy is written by the elites both private and public with their goals in mind, not some greater good. And even more "popular" policy like immigration restrictions throws human rights and morals away in a futile attempt to maintain the status quo.

Look, lets say that we somehow, as a thought experiment, do manage to completely decentralize power in the United States..... What mechanism would now exist to stop various private powers engaging in socially undesirable or shady practices in order to climb back up to as great or even greater levels of power? (or hell, even "on the level" practices that still lead to positions of monopoly, collusion, and market dominance)
But this is an irrelevant question. We don't and can't know what mechanism would arise, maybe one won't, maybe utopia will. The answer isn't to go 180 degrees and enact greater unchecked centralized power and allowance for it to engage in negative practices simply because we don't have perfect knowledge.

The future is dynamic.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
But this is an irrelevant question. We don't and can't know what mechanism would arise, maybe one won't, maybe utopia will. The answer isn't to go 180 degrees and enact greater unchecked centralized power and allowance for it to engage in negative practices simply because we don't have perfect knowledge.
And the consequences of that gamble being wrong are too high for me to comfortably consider it. We've never seen an example of a utopia, but we've seen what can happen when private organizations wield too much power. On the basis of historical human development one outcome is certainly more probable than the other.

I'm not asking for perfect knowledge, but I am asking to be given an idea of what's going to replace what current positive systems we have now, and the answers I always get back are too blithely optimistic about human nature for me to accept.
 

benjipwns

Banned
And the consequences of that gamble being wrong are too high for me to comfortably consider it. ...
I'm not asking for perfect knowledge, but I am asking to be told what's going to replace
There's no intelligent designer, only evolution.

too blithely optimistic about human nature for me to accept.
I don't think this is the case. Instead they assume the negatives of human nature, thus why no one should be granted monopoly power just because we're afraid of the unknown.

I mean think of the largest corporations in the United States. Walmart controls what, 2-3% of GDP? The state controls 40+% (debt 100+%) and is growing much faster (in absolute percentage points) and with much more unchecked power.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I don't think this is the case. Instead they assume the negatives of human nature, thus why no one should be granted monopoly power just because we're afraid of the unknown.

The assumption is always either that large private power either won't arise, or if it does arise it will be maintained at socially acceptable levels because of competition. The idea of collusion or private power outstripping its competitors to socially detrimental effect aren't particularly addressed, what arguments I have seen usually seem to boil down to "it probably wouldn't happen because such things just wouldn't happen". That's what I call blithely optimistic.

The natural tendency of human development is exploitation. We've seen this hundreds of times across thousands of years. I want to actually know what people think will inhibit that tendency, not just take it on faith that "we'll figure it out"
 

benjipwns

Banned
I guess it's a fair criticism in general, but it's a better answer than the alternative.

1. We trust in evolution and the breadmakers greed, not his good will.
2. We give up and grant all power to one corporation. Trusting only in their good will.

I don't consider a mix viable, because #2 will always win larger shares of the mix.

The natural tendency of human development is exploitation. We've seen this hundreds of times across thousands of years. I want to actually know what people think will inhibit that tendency, not just take it on faith that "we'll figure it out"
But why put faith in one unaccountable entity rather than the liberal position of competition increases individual power?

I also want to make a note about your earlier point because this reminds me, and also a point many make. In the 1890's for example, the power of the state was less and people were exploited more by private power right? But that's relative to our standards. Relative to their own, it was a time of great improvement for pretty much every class. It was those very improvements than shone the light on other inequalities. The problem with the hammer of the state is the endless supply of nails.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I guess it's a fair criticism in general, but it's a better answer than the alternative.

1. We trust in evolution and the breadmakers greed, not his good will.
2. We give up and grant all power to one corporation. Trusting only in their good will.

I don't consider a mix probably, because #2 will always win larger shares of the mix.

But #1 will always evolve towards 2. This is the story of human history. Be it various forms of monarchy, plutocracy, in ancient egypt, in china, in south america, wherever and whenever centralized power is the natural result of the development of civilization. I'm not going to say its inevitable for all eternity, but given that it basically always has in the past I understandably want more to go on than just "well maybe this time it won't". The current uneasy answer we've arrived at is to just try and maintain as much populist control of 2 as is possible, and sure, that's flawed as hell, but its where that evolution has led us so far.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Of course vigilance is necessary. The problem with #2 is that it doesn't allow you to withdraw power from it (let alone refuse to grant it power) too easily. Meanwhile 99% of businesses and the wealthy are dead.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Of course vigilance is necessary. The problem with #2 is that it doesn't allow you to withdraw power from it too easily. Meanwhile 99% of businesses and the wealthy are dead.

Withdrawing power from 2 is exactly what we're discussing though. Which I'm all for in a certain sense but I also want to know what new way of inhibiting the development of 2 we're going to employ that hasn't occurred in the 4,000 years of human history. The perspective of the various decentralization philosophies always seems to treat the arising of system 2 as an abnormal occurrence that we could avoid if we just shrunk everything back down and tried again. But power has always trended towards aggregation, and the decentralists don't seem interested in explaining how they'd counter that trend so much as just saying "well it was unnatural in the first place, so it wouldn't happen this time"
 

benjipwns

Banned
Well, I agree with Nozick that it'll come back. And I agree with some that the Constitution was a good stab at dealing with that fact even if it needed an enforcement mechanism and some more enlightened liberalism.

My personal solution is to understand that I hold the power of consent and can withdraw it. And to vouch for the denial of granting monopolized power or support to corporations, be they designated public or private. And to mock the pretense of democracy. And to deny the legitimacy of any man to rule over another. And advance voluntaryism through voluntaryist means.

In other words, arguing aimlessly on the internet because I'm an meaningless idiot.
 
All of the social sciences are based on axioms, no matter how much they attempt to copy other fields, it's just a veneer. (Actually, at it's core, what isn't based on them?)

For example there's no falsification in political science because there's no actual testing. There isn't a model that adds anything of triumphant value beyond the axiom underlying it.

And every variable you're choosing to include in your model or more importantly, not include, matters infinitely more than any result you get.


That's not the idea. The idea is that things are driven by human action with individual motivations that we can't always know. So to collectivize individual behavior as a singular mass with a handful of motivations is faulty.

Basically they seem to be saying . . . it is too hard to figure out so we are just gonna make shit up. And coincidentally that shit just always seems to align with the personal financial interests of the people making the shit up. Funny how that works.

If they they think it is too complex then they should find another line of work and let people that actually use empiricism and science to work on economics.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Well, I agree with Nozick that it'll come back. And I agree with some that the Constitution was a good stab at dealing with that fact even if it needed an enforcement mechanism and some more enlightened liberalism.

My personal solution is to understand that I hold the power of consent and can withdraw it. And to vouch for the denial of granting monopolized power or support to corporations, be they designated public or private. And to mock the pretense of democracy. And to deny the legitimacy of any man to rule over another. And advance voluntaryism through voluntaryist means.

In other words, arguing aimlessly on the internet because I'm an meaningless idiot.

Which is...fine I guess, I disagree pretty wholly but we've covered that ground. At the end of the day, given how much exploitation is woven into human history and given that our current uneasy equilibrium at least makes small gestures to counteract it I'm not going to get onboard trading the known for the unknown unless I can be convinced that actual thought has been given to keeping history from repeating itself. Which isn't to say that you don't put lots of thought into this, just that like I said there doesn't seem to be much acknowledgement that history will have to be kept from repeating itself. Power has always trended towards aggregation, and we're nowhere near the peak of just how nasty it can be
 
Humans have motivations. Gravity, evolution, thermodynamics don't.

So? That doesn't present an excuse for not using proven scientific method.

Quantum Mechanics works on particles that work in crazy non intuitive ways . . . an unobserved particle is not in one particular place but is instead in a superposition of multiple places simultaneously and it does not exist in one places until it is observed. You literally cannot know where the particle is (sort of like you might not accurately know the motivations of every person), yet science has been able to develop Quantum mechanics in a probabilistic manner which provides some of the most accurate predictions in all of science. The same can be done with economics. Perhaps you won't be as accurate but at least you can provide something useful.

If you just sit around thinking about things with this praxeology pseudo-science, you are just like the old philosophers of the ages that thought they could figure things out just by thinking about them. No, you can't. You need to make measurements, study the evidence, build models, test them, etc. This praxeology is nothing but faith-based economics.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Basically they seem to be saying . . . it is too hard to figure out so we are just gonna make shit up. And coincidentally that shit just always seems to align with the personal financial interests of the people making the shit up. Funny how that works.

If they they think it is too complex then they should find another line of work and let people that actually use empiricism and science to work on economics.
But that's the argument, that economics isn't a science. I think there's a good case for the calculation/knowledge problem.

And the stuff they "make up" runs directly counter to everything corporate elites want and get enacted. Dynamic evolution is the foe of entrenched elites.

You need to make measurements, study the evidence, build models, test them, etc.
And that's the problem with economics, you can't build a model and test it. In part because most of the measurements aren't that useful.

given how much exploitation is woven into human history and given that our current uneasy equilibrium at least makes small gestures to counteract it
I think the current system pretends to, but actually entrenches it further. And then people handwave the injustice away with "you get to vote!"

Then whine if you don't or "throw your vote away" or criticize the notion that it does anything.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I think the current system pretends to, but actually entrenches it further. And then people handwave the injustice away with "you get to vote!"

Then whine if you don't or "throw your vote away" or criticize the notion that it does anything.

Entrenches it further compared to what though? Everything is relative. Look, take one of the implications of the ACA: if as a result less people receive healthcare through employers and are therefore more free to explore alternate employment with decreased fear for their health, that is a tangible increase in individual liberty compared to the previous iteration of the system
 
It's not pseudoscience because it never claims to be a science. It's philosophy like the rest of economics, political science, history, sociology, etc.


You don't decide policy through empiricism, it's decided through morals.

I read this as "We muddy the waters by trying say that studying economics is impossible and then instead selecting policies THAT WE WANT."

This is economic thinking that is not even wrong. It is destructive to people trying to do real economic work.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Entrenches it further compared to what though? Everything is relative. Look, take one of the implications of the ACA: if as a result less people receive healthcare through employers and are therefore more free to explore alternate employment with decreased fear for their health, that is a tangible increase in individual liberty compared to the previous iteration of the system
I don't see being forced by one corporation to buy something from another corporation as an increase in individual liberty. Especially when the set of things I'm being forced to buy are limited.

But different strokes and all that.
 
But that's the argument, that economics isn't a science. I think there's a good case for the calculation/knowledge problem.

And the stuff they "make up" runs directly counter to everything corporate elites want and get enacted. Dynamic evolution is the foe of entrenched elites.
Bullshit! Well if you really want to shake things up then you should have a 90% or so estate tax. That will stop the entrenched elite. Do they advocate such policy? No, they think there should be no estate tax which then creates a permanent economic elite.


And that's the problem with economics, you can't build a model and test it. In part because most of the measurements aren't that useful.
Then why the fuck do they present us with their bullshit even if they think it can't be studied? They should just say "We are frauds, ignore us." and go find something else to do.

This is the same way conservatives address climate change . . . oh, we can't build accurate models and test it . . . so we don't really know anything . . . so let's just instead forget about it and just do what we want to do instead.

Yes, economics is very difficult. But science figured out evolution without being able to 'test it'. We've figured things out about the stars, galaxies, and the universe without being able to build & test it all.


Economics is very much like evolution except that instead of operating on energy, it operates on money. And we've learned a lot about evolution . . . and although it can produce great things, it is horribly brutal process and leads to periodic massive ecosystem collapses. With our study of economics, we can hopefully tame the process so it can continue producing great things but we reduce the brutality of it and we prevent massive collapses.
Conservatives think they have found this magic of the free market and liberals just don't get it. But the liberals understand the free market and know it does great things . . . we've seen it before in the form of evolution (something many conservatives still can't admit is real). However, the liberals also understand the problems with the free market and seek to reduce those problems. They are one step ahead. Perhaps when conservatives can wrap their minds around evolution they might get it.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I don't see being forced by one corporation to buy something from another corporation as an increase in individual liberty. Especially when the set of things I'm being forced to buy are limited.

But different strokes and all that.

It means that they are free to explore employment opportunities that they would normally have turned down due to a lack of benefits. It's easier to go into business for yourself or take a chance on a smaller company with a lot of potential. You are not as bound to your job as before and that's a good thing.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I don't see being forced by one corporation to buy something from another corporation as an increase in individual liberty. Especially when the set of things I'm being forced to buy are limited.

But different strokes and all that.

You don't see how an increase in the number of options of what corporation to buy from and what type to buy is an increase in your agency and liberty? In purely analytical terms, completely regardless from how you'd like things to be in a perfect world?
 

benjipwns

Banned
Bullshit! Well if you really want to shake things up then you should have a 90% or so estate tax. That will stop the entrenched elite. Do they advocate such policy? No, they think there should be no estate tax which then creates a permanent economic elite.
Estate taxes contribute to an elite class, not stop them. Seizing wealth just to destroy it does nothing for anyone but the fellow elites.

Conservatives think they have found this magic of the free market and liberals just don't get it. But the liberals understand the free market and know it does great things . . . we've seen it before in the form of evolution (something many conservatives still can't admit is real). However, the liberals also understand the problems with the free market and seek to reduce those problems. They are one step ahead. Perhaps when conservatives can wrap their minds around evolution they might get it.
Conservatives don't support the free market and never have. The liberal revolution of the Enlightenment is what introduced the moral tenets of the free market, and that Mises, Hayek, Rothbard (since we're talking about Austrians here I won't name anybody else) continued in the path of.

It's the reactionary conservative/progressive/socialist/fascist movements of the 20th century that have tried to roll back the findings of the liberal revolution and re-entrench an elite class. They just disagree on who should be in it.

You don't see how an increase in the number of options of what corporation to buy from and what type to buy is an increase in your agency and liberty? In purely analytical terms, completely regardless from how you'd like things to be in a perfect world?
Aren't there fewer plans being offered in the exchanges? I know for example there's a lot of various restrictions on what type you can buy once you hit 30, etc.

Not to mention the very fact that there's even a standard required of what's being purchased shows there's less options. (Not that I have love for the state's prior solutions to the problem of not having enough control.)
 
Conservatives don't support the free market and never have. The liberal revolution of the Enlightenment is what introduced the moral tenets of the free market, and that Mises, Hayek, Rothbard (since we're talking about Austrians here I won't name anybody else) continued in the path of.

It's the reactionary conservative/progressive/socialist/fascist movements of the 20th century that have tried to roll back the findings of the liberal revolution and re-entrench an elite class. They just disagree on who should be in it.

The fact you believe this is laughable. Its rewriting history and funny in its sense that 'only we are fighting for liberty! everybody else is a sell out'

Also the fascist movement that mises and hayek wrote almost approvingly of? (yes they couched their terms but it was obvious they feared the socialists more because they threatened the wealth and viewed facism as better )

Libertarianism is a response to the idea that other people can undermine your entrenched wealth nothing more. Its the refuge of those already wealthy (or those who think they will be) as a way to justify their decidedly unlibertarian accumulation of that capital. Of course libertarians will say they don't endorse the original taking but they seem to be ok with keeping the arraignment as any solution is dismissed.

I'll respond more tonight.
 
Do you even know how estate taxes work? That is completely untrue.

Because that money goes to 'the corporation' which is a elite its enriching the elite. At least that's my expectation of the response.

He conveniently dismisses democracy and society ('there is no such thing as a society')

Austrian economics and praxeology are a complete dismissal of human history and biology. Its nonsense and should be treated as such. Theocracy has more support.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Once again, context matters. You are conflating two different types of "assuming." One is, "Let's assume, for the sake of argument," which is what Alito does and is completely different. Scalia's assuming is "I am of the understanding that the law intends to do X."

The bottom line is this: Scalia didn't decide the Halbig question in NFIB. For all we know, he was never aware there was a question like that presented in Halbig. Because the issue was not raised, there's no basis for concluding that Scalia considered the question and intended to answer it in NFIB.

But set all my other arguments aside. Let's say that you're right, and Scalia assumed that the subsidies would be available on the federal exchanges. Why should he be held to that assumption in the face of arguments he was unaware of at that time? In other words, why shouldn't he be able to change his mind once he discovers that the IRS rule isn't as ironclad as he had initially been led to believe?

In ordinary circumstances, you wouldn't hold anyone to such a high standard. Imagine if Scalia and Ginsburg went to see Inception, and upon exiting, Scalia turned to Ginsburg and said, "I can't believe it was all a dream!" Then, two years later, Ginsburg emails Scalia, exclaiming, "Oh my God, Nino! I just read that the top wasn't Leo's totem at all! The totem was his wedding band!" Should Scalia be prohibited from changing his opinion on the question because of his statement two years prior, or would you grant him the prerogative to incorporate newly available information in deciding the issue? The fact that Scalia's statement in NFIB came in a court opinion doesn't change anything compared with the above example. The salient facts remain the same: Scalia made a statement at Time X based on information available then, and later receives new information that calls his Time-X statement into question.

Here's how Ginsburg dealt with a similar problem to the one you're attempting to foist upon Scalia; namely, the fact that her dissent in Hobby Lobby expressed a contrary view to an opinion she joined in City of Boerne v. Flores: "Concerning that observation, I remind my colleagues of Justice Jackson's sage comment: 'I see no reason why I should be consciously wrong today because I was unconsciously wrong yesterday.'"

Oh. My. God. You are going to an extreme with your contrarian stuff right now. I'm not going to write the whole novel for this example, but you clearly understand my point there and now I wonder if you're trolling.

Yes, I do understand your point. And it's wrong. A reader doesn't have to conclude that Mamba shot Metaphoreus. But there was one part of this that I didn't address: let's say that Scalia wrote a book report about your novel two years ago, and in it, stated that Mamba shot Metaphoreus dead. Now, two years later, let's say someone offers him some new arguments that call that view into question. Is Scalia permitted to repudiate his prior interpretation?

No. Because naming one is an obfuscation. The problem is that the argument doesn't work in context with ALL OF THEM together.

Here's my problem with this: you could know jack shit about the law and the majority opinion in Halbig and still make this argument. If I'm going to engage in a discussion about whether the D.C. Circuit considered 36B in the context of the whole statute, I need some indication that you're not just yanking my chain and expecting me to go about disproving a point you haven't even tried to support with evidence.

And, for all the ridicule some of you think is deserved by the Halbig and King challengers, bear in mind that three of the four appellate judges who ruled against the challengers concluded the statute was ambiguous. They didn't reject the challengers' arguments out of hand--they said they couldn't determine which argument was right, and so the IRS was entitled to decide.

BTW, you're entire argument really boils down to semantics. And semantics almost is never the right position.

You say this a lot, and you shouldn't. We're not arguing over what to call something (i.e., "semantics").

Finally, you want to know what I believe about whether the ACA provides subsidies on federal exchanges. I've already answered this question: I find the challengers' (and Halbig majority's) argument persuasive. That's not to say I can point to an individual member of Congress who subjectively believed that subsidies would be limited to state-established exchanges when he or she voted on the ACA. It means I can look at the text and see a persuasive argument that it means what it says.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Do you even know how estate taxes work? That is completely untrue.
Let me know when an estate tax anywhere does anything to the elite classes.

Or any tax for that manner.

The fact you believe this is laughable. Its rewriting history
Yes, to be accurate.

Conservatism has always been anti-liberal when liberalism contradicts the status quo. The socialist, progressive and fascist movements all oppose liberalism because they undermined the unity of the class/nation. In the major literature of all three you can find condemnation of the individual and glorification of self-sacrifice in the name of the collective. To quote Trilling, liberalism is "a political position which affirmed the value of individual existence in all its variousness, complexity, and difficulty."

E. H. Carr is one of the best examples since he followed every fad of the "Left" during the 1930's:
The crucial point about Hitlerism is that its disciples not only believe in themselves, but believe in Germany. For the first time since the war a party appeared outside the narrow circles of the extreme Right which was not afraid to proclaim its pride in being German. It will perhaps one day be recognized as the greatest service of Hitlerism that, in a way quite unprecedented in German politics, it cut across all social distinctions, embracing in its ranks working men, bourgeoisie, intelligentsia and aristocrats. "Germany Awake!" became a living national faith

...

In a sense, Marx is the protagonist and forerunner of the whole twentieth century revolution of thought. The nineteenth century saw the end of the period of humanism which began with the Renaissance-the period which took as its ideal the highest development of the faculties and liberties of the individual...Marx understood that, in the new order, the individual would play a minor part. Individualism implies differentiation; everything that is undifferentiated does not count. The Industrial Revolution would place in power the undifferentiated mass. Not man, but mass-man, not the individual, but the class, not the political man, would be the unit of the coming dispensation. Not only industry, but the whole of civilization, would become a matter of mass-production.

...

Over the greater part of Western Europe the common values for which we stand are known and prized. We must indeed beware of these values in purely nineteenth-century terms. If we speak of democracy, we do not mean a democracy which maintains the right to vote but forgets the right to work and the right to live. If we speak of freedom, we do not mean a rugged individualism which excludes social organization and economic planning. If we speak of equality, we do not mean a political equality nullified by social and economic privilege. If we speak of economic reconstruction we think less of maximum production (through this too will be required) than of equitable distribution.


Also the fascist movement that mises and hayek wrote almost approvingly of?
Would love to see more than the usual truncated quote for this.

Libertarianism is a response to the idea that other people can undermine your entrenched wealth nothing more. Its the refuge of those already wealthy (or those who think they will be) as a way to justify their decidedly unlibertarian accumulation of that capital.
Yeah, nobody says entrenched wealth like Spooner, Warren, Godwin and Tucker.

Of course libertarians will say they don't endorse the original taking but they seem to be ok with keeping the arraignment as any solution is dismissed.
Well, except for all of those many solutions they support, and the things like TARP and farm subsidies and the war on drugs, etc. that they oppose.

He conveniently dismisses democracy and society ('there is no such thing as a society')
No, I said that society is not a tangible thing with a singular definition. And that it's not the same thing as the state.

I don't dismiss democracy, I point out that pretend democracy aka elections is a fraud and is not a check on power nor a form of consent.

I'll respond more tonight.
You should do something meaningful instead. Really, especially since you just think I espouse nonsense. (Which is true irregardless of the objective truth of everything I post.)
 
Let me know when an estate tax anywhere does anything to the elite classes.

Or any tax for that manner.

So taxes do nothing then? Is that really your contention now?

Without estate taxes, wealthy people can just stick their money in the bank/market/etc., live off the interest, and hand it down, and rinse & repeat. As long as they don't have too many kids and principal grow, then a family dynasty can live on forever and not ever work.

Not exactly what we want from the children of our best & brightest. It is sort of an anti-evolution principle.

Estate taxes reduce the wealth and thus the kids will still get millions but they'll have to work a bit if they want to be as wealthy as their parents. Perpetual dynasties averted. People like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates Senior, and Bill Gates Junior realize this and want estate taxes to continue. This encourages people to donate their wealth to avoid taxes, keeps their kids active, and prevents useless lazy family dynasties.

I'm sure you can figure it out . . . it is basic math. But your ideology may blind you from the truth. That damn empiricism and evidence can be so annoying!
 

benjipwns

Banned
Without estate taxes, wealthy people can just stick their money in the bank/market/etc., live off the interest, and hand it down, and rinse & repeat.
Awesome. Where's the downside?

People like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates Senior, and Bill Gates Junior realize this and want estate taxes to continue
Hmmm...why might somebody like Warren Buffet want estate taxes...he's a member of the elite isn't he? I forget...
 
You should do something meaningful instead. Really, especially since you just think I espouse nonsense. (Which is true irregardless of the objective truth of everything I post.)

You've come into the thread in the past few months constantly goading us into responding to your nonsense with trolling comments and occasional links to noted racists's blogs and quotes which attempt to tie liberals with hitler.

You've also in the past shown your arguments aren't in good faith.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Nowhere did I tie liberals to Hitler, if you read the paragraphs above my quotes from Carr, you'll see that I in a very distinct manner separated liberalism and the various movements Carr flocked to that oppose liberalism.
 
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