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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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benjipwns

Banned
Good. If we want to get involved again, they should be forced to pass a new resolution instead of someone in the current or a future administration just using (abusing) the previous resolution. Rand Paul at least should be on board for this on the R side.
They need to get rid of or at minimum seriously change the 2001 AUMF too.

lol ya rite
 

Vlad

Member
The Obama administration is hoping for an impeachment movement at this point. I hope they bring it on too. Let the far-right push their view on the national scale and let it be judged. (Of course this already happened in 2012 but let it happen again.)

If anything, it does them more good to just talk about it. Every time someone mentions it it gets everybody all riled up. They get to create more ill will without having to actually act on anything.
 
Because it's more than often just a liberal circle jerk that nobody else cares about? Sometimes a Todd Akin emerges who becomes a national story, but more often than not Daily Kos, this thread, Media Matters, etc spend a whole lot of time focusing on stuff that no one is outraged about except for a few liberals.

I've pretty much disengaged from most liberal blogs because it just boils down to either "x said y and the so called liberal media isn't reporting it!" or "why x isn't really bad news for Obama/democrats/etc." Meanwhile the president's polls crash on nearly every issue. Hispanics aren't happy about his handling of the border "crisis," which really makes me think they'll throw a hail marry on that immigration executive order and thus fuck over red state democrats.

You voted for Rick Snyder. Your argument is invalid.

More seriously, Obama's numbers are crashing because they want him to solve all the world's foreign policy problems without actually using any troops or money, magically fix the immigration problem without being nice to any brown people, and fix the economy when one branch of the government literally wants to help him in no way possible.

Frankly. if that's why Obama's number are crashing, good. Bill Clinton left office with a 65% approval rate. He also got nothing done for the progressive movement.
 
The Obama administration is hoping for an impeachment movement at this point. I hope they bring it on too. Let the far-right push their view on the national scale and let it be judged. (Of course this already happened in 2012 but let it happen again.)

I think the refugee influx has changed the equation though. Without it, Obama probably could get away with an executive order to legalize folks. But with his approval on immigration crashing and people buying the idea that Obama made the situation worse...I just don't believe the public would support a unilateral executive order. The WH doesn't do much of anything unless its poll tested to hell so I believe that National Journal article was a trial balloon, internal polling isn't looking good and they'll decide not to do it.
 

benjipwns

Banned
His numbers are crashing because of the strong Putin 2016 campaign:
7dDLlRs.png


Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?
[RANDOMIZE LIST]
Summary Chart
Approve
Health care - 41%
The economy - 40%
Foreign policy - 36%
Immigration - 34%
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict - 29%
 
I think the refugee influx has changed the equation though. Without it, Obama probably could get away with an executive order to legalize folks. But with his approval on immigration crashing and people buying the idea that Obama made the situation worse...I just don't believe the public would support a unilateral executive order. The WH doesn't do much of anything unless its poll tested to hell so I believe that National Journal article was a trial balloon, internal polling isn't looking good and they'll decide not to do it.

If they don't they're stupid. It will cement latinos (and its the right thing to do). Its an executive action, what's the damn downside?

Otherwise you have Obama talking a great game on immigration and delivering nothing.
 

Tamanon

Banned
I would hope most people thought Putin had the upper hand in Ukraine over President Obama. It's a pretty clear fact, just based on geographical power alone.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I would hope most people thought Putin had the upper hand in Ukraine over President Obama. It's a pretty clear fact, just based on geographical power alone.
But he wouldn't if we had a strong foreign policy based on the Kirkpatrick principles headed by someone with real leadership.

Obama could learn from Johm McCain who showed strong leadership and patriotism during crisis when Russia took over South Ossetia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjyeqWAPiSE
 

Diablos

Member
Frankly. if that's why Obama's number are crashing, good. Bill Clinton left office with a 65% approval rate. He also got nothing done for the progressive movement.
Word.

lol @ people harping on Obama over stuff going on in Ukraine.

But he wouldn't if we had a strong foreign policy based on the Kirkpatrick principles headed by someone with real leadership.

Obama could learn from Johm McCain who showed strong leadership and patriotism during crisis when Russia took over South Ossetia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjyeqWAPiSE
7V7vDDV.gif
 

Cloudy

Banned
I think the refugee influx has changed the equation though. Without it, Obama probably could get away with an executive order to legalize folks. But with his approval on immigration crashing and people buying the idea that Obama made the situation worse...I just don't believe the public would support a unilateral executive order. The WH doesn't do much of anything unless its poll tested to hell so I believe that National Journal article was a trial balloon, internal polling isn't looking good and they'll decide not to do it.

I don't think they care at this point. Notice how they didn't cancel fundraisers this week or send Obama to the border despite the GOP, the MSM and even some Dems trying to bully them into it?

Immigration is the last big campaign promise (Deferred action for Dreamers doesn't cut it) and I think they're going to do it and take their lumps in the short-term. Dems will lose the Senate and next 2 years are going to be about implementing Obamacare amid GOP attacks, getting out of war zones and vetoing garbage bills
 

Tamanon

Banned
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/charlie-crist-climate-change-scientist-brain

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) recently deflected questions about climate change by saying, "I'm not a scientist."

Now Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist has offered a response. He said, according to SaintPetersBlog: "I'm not a scientist either but I can use my brain and I can talk to one."

On Friday, Crist reportedly attended a 25-minute presentation by Jeff Chanton, a professor at Florida State University who specializes in chemical oceanography and has offered to meet with Scott. Chanton discussed rising sea levels as a consequence of climate change, which scientists say threatens Florida's infrastructure and real estate near the coastline.

Scott's campaign dismissed the move as a publicity stunt, per SaintPetersBlog.

Crist, a former governor of the Florida who wants the job back, is a Republican turned independent turned Democrat. In 2007, he said "global climate change is one of the most important issues we face this century."

Finally a politician making the sensible retort to this "I'm not a scientist" nonsense.
 

kehs

Banned
Charlie Crist said:
"I'm not a scientist either… but I can talk to one"

Charlie Crist says he's not a scientist, but he can "talk to one" when it comes to his convictions.

This election, tell Crist what you think about using others as a crutch.
 
https://mobile.twitter.com/carter4governor/status/492812109785595905

Jason Carter leading 47-40 in a poll against Gov Nathan Deal (R).

That same poll also has Michelle Nunn leading David Perdue 47-43 for the Senate race.

Fuck battleground texas, Democrats need to invest in getting these guys over 50 on election night.

Also, Mary Landrieu to receive endorsement from the US Chamber of Commerce: http://nyti.ms/1uoXV2o

To be honest I'm not as worried with the red state races as I am with the ones in Colorado and Iowa.
 

Wilsongt

Member
https://mobile.twitter.com/carter4governor/status/492812109785595905

Jason Carter leading 47-40 in a poll against Gov Nathan Deal (R).

That same poll also has Michelle Nunn leading David Perdue 47-43 for the Senate race.

Fuck battleground texas, Democrats need to invest in getting these guys over 50 on election night.

Also, Mary Landrieu to receive endorsement from the US Chamber of Commerce: http://nyti.ms/1uoXV2o

Man, look a the Republican wave. Sonlong, Senate.
 
To be honest I'm not as worried with the red state races as I am with the ones in Colorado and Iowa.
Yeah, neither of them look that good right now. But Joni Ernst (the R candidate in Iowa) is nuts and I think Braley will win by 5-10 points come election day. And Colorado's polls are always skewed to favor the Republicans, there's no way Mark Udall is going to lose.
 
To be honest I'm not as worried with the red state races as I am with the ones in Colorado and Iowa.

Colorado is difficult to poll due to Hispanics and the archaic way many polling companies handle things. I'd imagine the democrat will outperform the polls by 3-5 points, as Obama did there in 2012.

Iowa is going red imo.

And I'd imagine any progress being made in red states will be wiped out when Obama issues that executive order on immigration.
 
Colorado is difficult to poll due to Hispanics and the archaic way many polling companies handle things. I'd imagine the democrat will outperform the polls by 3-5 points, as Obama did there in 2012.

Iowa is going red imo.

And I'd imagine any progress being made in red states will be wiped out when Obama issues that executive order on immigration.

Because as we all know, it's impossible for a Red State Democrat to effectively campaign against Obama's agenda.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIJORBRpOPM
 

Diablos

Member
Because as we all know, it's impossible for a Red State Democrat to effectively campaign against Obama's agenda.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIJORBRpOPM
Holy shit I never saw this.

What an asshole.

Did he intentionally try to sound like he dropped out of school after 6th grade when he said 'CAUSE ITS BAD 4 WEST VIRGINIA DERP'? Or is he really this dumb?

Why is Joni Earnst so far ahead? I thought Iowa was one of the good ones?
I have no idea but it makes no sense to me whatsoever that she is looking to be poised to win this thing. The polling has to be wrong. I don't want to believe this.

She's folksy.
She introduced herself to the world by saying she got started cutting off pig dicks.
 
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/diplomania/.premium-1.607332

If Kerry did anything on Friday it was to thwart the possibility of reaching a cease-fire in Gaza. Instead of promoting a cease-fire, Kerry pushed it away. If this failed diplomatic attempt leads Israel to escalate its operation in Gaza, the American secretary of state will be one of those responsible for every additional drop of blood that is spilled.

never mind the thoughts on the conflict but this paints a damning portrait of Kerry going in to something with no real plan and failing miserably
 
Why is Joni Earnst so far ahead? I thought Iowa was one of the good ones?

But Aaron Strife told me that Braley was safe, and his farmer comment was no big deal! Braley is fucked. He's running against a charismatic true believer in a state that has completely turned against Obama
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I'm curious to know what's going wrong in Iowa and Colorado as well, but last time I started panicking about polls everything got better a month later, so I've been trying to wait longer before acting like one month of disappointing polling is a huge deal.
 
But Aaron Strife told me that Braley was safe, and his farmer comment was no big deal! Braley is fucked. He's running against a charismatic true believer in a state that has completely turned against Obama

Damn you aren't kidding about Ernst being a true believer. She's said outright she would vote against the Farm Bill, wants to abolish Medicare and Social Security and eliminate the minimum wage.
 
But Aaron Strife told me that Braley was safe, and his farmer comment was no big deal! Braley is fucked. He's running against a charismatic true believer in a state that has completely turned against Obama
And PD told me Todd Akin would win the night before he lost by 16 points. And how you were looking forward to posting my 332-206 prediction map.

Also Braley is leading in the polling average (slightly), what the hell are you guys talking about Ernst leading?
 
I'm curious to know what's going wrong in Iowa and Colorado as well, but last time I started panicking about polls everything got better a month later, so I've been trying to wait longer before acting like one month of disappointing polling is a huge deal.

Braley's not the most fantastic candidate (even though almost every Republican candidate has said something dumb) and Colorado polling is always horrible for some reason. Once Ernst and Gardner's actual views are shown, it won't be a big deal, unless Braley really screws up.

ATM, I'd say Colorado is a 80/20 DNC hold and Iowa is a 65/35 DNC hold. Even with the doom doom doom coming from various segments.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Braley's not the most fantastic candidate (even though almost every Republican candidate has said something dumb) and Colorado polling is always horrible for some reason. Once Ernst and Gardner's actual views are shown, it won't be a big deal, unless Braley really screws up.

ATM, I'd say Colorado is a 80/20 DNC hold and Iowa is a 65/35 DNC hold. Even with the doom doom doom coming from various segments.

Well, there's already a billion ads about Gardner's backwards views on abortion.

It's always interesting to me how little people care about abortion politics most of the time, but it's always the number one place to go to for ammo against any republican in attack ads come election season.
 

Diablos

Member
Kerry's plan is fine and reasonable.
Israel rejected it for political reasons, Netanyahu needs to able to paint this yet another round of pointless violence as a victory.
Netanyahu is a terrorist. A rich, powerful one leading a country with lots of army and tech at his disposal.

Honestly, how can anyone only blame one side in what happens between Israel and Palestine? They're both deeply flawed.
 
Kerry's plan is fine and reasonable.
Israel rejected it for political reasons, Netanyahu needs to able to paint this yet another round of pointless violence as a victory.
Never mind the fact that I disagree (I've banned myself from discussing the conflict on GAF).

It shows a secretary, that doesn't understand who he's negotiating with and their positions. It shows a sense of outside nativity on Kerry's part that he's going to parachute in and get a ceasefire while seemingly ignoring one sides position and lying about negotiations. He's now pissed off both sides. The Israels are kissed and the Palestines are pissed.

I'm really starting to agree with many of the criticisms of Obama. While I agree with his caution much of his foreign policy team is seemingly ignorant of local issues and grievances, reactive , and lacking in any idea what they stand for with any coherence.
 

alstein

Member
Netanyahu is a terrorist. A rich, powerful one leading a country with lots of army and tech at his disposal.

Honestly, how can anyone only blame one side in what happens between Israel and Palestine? They're both deeply flawed.

Plenty of folks are giving Hamas a free pass- some of which is underdog syndrome.

You're right they both are to blame, and neither side gives a crap about the people in Gaza.


Also, in the latest NC is dumb series:

http://www.wsoctv.com/news/news/local/houston-officials-trying-lure-nc-teachers-texas/ngnP4/

NC is losing many of its teachers to Texas by way of underpaying them $20k.
 
PoluGAF thoughts on Sullivan's Hillary Piece?

http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/07/24/self-aggrandizement-isnt-diplomacy/

He raises a couple of good points, especially Hillary's answers on the foreign policy front are just dumb.

Funny how I don't remember much criticism from him or anyone else during Obama's vapid 2006-2007 media tour.

But it certainly is true that Hillary is again running an emotionless, dated, campaign. And whereas last time she had a clear policy goal (healthcare) I'm not sure she has one right now. Healthcare is done; the future of healthcare is the ACA and what additions and subtractions occur over the next few years, until the program inevitably leads to some type of universal coverage in the future.

Is it "tough" foreign policy? Well good luck selling that to the American public, especially when you can't identify how exactly you would do things differently from the administration you were tied to for four years. Climate change? No one cares outside of liberals. Civil liberties? Unlikely since you support the administration's broad violations of those. etc.

I'll be voting for Hillary for four more years of decent judges, support of the ACA, avoiding stupid wars, and a Justice Department that realizes racism actually exists. I don't see her getting much else done outside of economic compromises, and assuming the economy continues to improve she'll certainly have a better "record" on jobs than Obama. But in terms of legislative victories like the ACA or the CFPB? Unlikely with a republican House until at least 2020.
 

Chichikov

Member
Never mind the fact that I disagree (I've banned myself from discussing the conflict on GAF).

It shows a secretary, that doesn't understand who he's negotiating with and their positions. It shows a sense of outside nativity on Kerry's part that he's going to parachute in and get a ceasefire while seemingly ignoring one sides position and lying about negotiations. He's now pissed off both sides. The Israels are kissed and the Palestines are pissed.

I'm really starting to agree with many of the criticisms of Obama. While I agree with his caution much of his foreign policy team is seemingly ignorant of local issues and grievances, reactive , and lacking in any idea what they stand for with any coherence.
Again, his offer is pretty damn reasonable, I know you're not debating it (while kinda still do) but that's THE most important question here.
The Israeli government is not being reasonble, their demands will not be accepted and for a good reason.
The Hamas are being quire reasonable, and just wait and see, their demands will for the most part be accepted by Israel - Isreal will withdraw, the blockade will be eased, the fishing area will increase, it's just that Netanyahu need to be able to show that he "won".

Kerry has been put in an impossible situation since it's politically impossible to criticize Israel, let alone pressure it, at least he didn't further erode what little trust the US had in the Arab world by packaging Israeli talking points as a proposal.

Netanyahu is a terrorist. A rich, powerful one leading a country with lots of army and tech at his disposal.

Honestly, how can anyone only blame one side in what happens between Israel and Palestine? They're both deeply flawed.
Nothing depress me more than seeing so many liberal American Jews close ranks and blindly support an ultra-right wing that makes the GWB administration looks like George McGovern.
And by the way, since it's important to keep mentioning it, Netanyahu throughout his career used external threats (first it the PLO, than Iran and its nuke, now the terror tunnels) to pillage the country through privatization and tax cuts for the rich that made him and his billionaire friends a lot of money.
You guys aren't helping, you're enabling.
 

alstein

Member
And in the US people are prone to having a kneejerk reaction that Israel can do no wrong and is only defending itself, period. This is incredibly stupid.

I haven't seen a lot of that this time. I think the perception in mainstream secular America things both sides are bad. The fundies support Israel because they see them as future Christians.

That said, this is an issue where AIPAC can do its magic, because Americans ultimately don't care all that much either way as long as Americans aren't dying, so money can talk.
 
Is the only reason Carter is leading Deal because of Deal's atrocious handling of the winter storm? Or did he also shat the bed like a 2 year old with diarrhea like Brownback did in Kansas?
Probably a little of both. I don't follow Georgia state politics that much but I've heard Deal is pretty shady in general.
 
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/diplomania/.premium-1.607332



never mind the thoughts on the conflict but this paints a damning portrait of Kerry going in to something with no real plan and failing miserably
Kerry Ceasefire Plan
First, both sides would agree to a suspension of hostilities of at least five days or up to a week, beginning Sunday, to allow for humanitarian assistance to Gaza’s besieged civilian population.

Second, Israel and Hamas would begin negotiations toward a more long-term settlement of the Gaza crisis during the truce, with Egypt playing the role of mediator and the Palestinian Fatah organization participating.

According to the plan, the United States, the European Union, and United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon would serve as guarantors that the negotiations would work to the end goal of meeting both sides’ key demands: for Israel, ridding Gaza of the rockets and tunnels that pose a security threat to the Jewish state, and for Hamas, ending the Israeli embargo of Gaza that for years has choked the small Palestinian enclave.

The new plan was taking shape less than two weeks after Hamas rejected a cease-fire proposal from Egypt that Israel quickly accepted. But Kerry’s plan includes key differences from the earlier proposal that not only reflect a very different situation on the ground as a result of Israel’s military incursion into Gaza, but which also aim to entice Hamas to accept a cease-fire this time around.

New to this plan: inclusion of the guarantors as well as international pledges that Israel’s blockade and a plan to repair heavy damage sustained in the Gaza Strip will be addressed.

The proposed cease-fire plan also takes into account the presence of the Israeli military inside Gaza and does not call for a full Israeli withdrawal. Instead, it would allow for some units to remain during the cease-fire period to continue locating and destroying tunnels into Israel.
Can you point out exactly what the fuck is unreasonable in Kerry Ceasfire Plan. It is a very fair plan and absolutely no one but the hawkish of hawks thinks it's tilted towards Hamas' favor. But then again those who support Netanyahu blindly are so far to the right, anything fair looks like it's way too far on the left, so it's rejected. Just like how Teabaggers think even a center-right proposal (Obamacare, halfway doing of Bush tax cuts, etc) are a liberal, communist takeover of America.
 
Again, his offer is pretty damn reasonable, I know you're not debating it (while kinda still do) but that's THE most important question here.
The Israeli government is not being reasonble, their demands will not be accepted and for a good reason.
The Hamas are being quire reasonable, and just wait and see, their demands will for the most part be accepted by Israel - Isreal will withdraw, the blockade will be eased, the fishing area will increase, it's just that Netanyahu need to be able to show that he "won".

Kerry has been put in an impossible situation since it's politically impossible to criticize Israel, let alone pressure it, at least he didn't further erode what little trust the US had in the Arab world by packaging Israeli talking points as a proposal.

Im not debating it because the Israel discussion on any social media has taken a turn towards idiocy and hyperbole to the extreme and it accomplishes nothing, there's always been that in the discussion of the conflict but the amount of 100% assurance everything the chosen side does is right or justified has been taken to new heights. I still discuss the issue personally and offline but this conflict has turned a switch which has released things and arguments that are just shutting down any discussion or any position that isn't 100% for one side or another. The Jon Stewart clip hits the nail on the head.

And Kerry plan is Qatar/Hamas/Turkey plan (the PA is against the 'reasonable plan'), right or wrong reasonable or not, it doesn't have the one thing Israel wants (at least on paper) which is disarmament, again my argument is not really on the merits but the fact that Kerry is stumbling about when these things aren't hidden. If he can't see what's going on or 'can't criticize Israel' (which I disagree with) then he shouldn't be over there making a fool of himself. What is he hoping to accomplish? Does he think was really asking for the US to be a broker in any arrangement? The US pushes both sides away from agreements.

Kerry should take the 2006 Lebanon resolution substitute Gaza for Lebanon and both sides will agree to it and ignore it at the same time. But at least the fighting will stop.

Just one thing though, can people admit APAIC isn't as all powerful as they think? they didn't get the iran sanctions they want, they're not driving this discussion and they never 'win' any races. Its an argument used by those that are unwilling to dig deeper into the Israel-US connection and want a convenient scapegoat as to why their views aren't represented. the basic fact is American's favor israel and taking views that are political unpopular aren't common with risk adverse politicians. Its not some scheming lobby threatening politicians. I say this as someone who's been in a office where AIPAC has come in.
 
@Ibishblog
Israel enraged at Kerry reported ceasefire terms. Hamas flatly rejected them. Is Israel misreading the terms, or Hamas misjudging realities?

@Yair_Rosenberg
To recap, both Israel AND the Palestinian Authority have now accused Kerry of sabotaging ceasefire efforts in favor of Hamas. Crazy times.

get kerry the hell out of there. He's making it worse

also interesting

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/jul/26/liberal-zionism-after-gaza/

that's about it for my comments on this issue though.
 

Ecotic

Member
Is the only reason Carter is leading Deal because of Deal's atrocious handling of the winter storm? Or did he also shat the bed like a 2 year old with diarrhea like Brownback did in Kansas?

He opted out of the Medicaid expansion and us Georgians are having to solely use the federal exchanges. Also the GOP state legislature is doing everything possible to make Obamacare not work for people. That's the big issue that's haunting him. Also, Georgia has this belief about itself that while we may be folsky and old-fashioned we're not Arizona crazy. That whole "guns everywhere" bill seems to have woken people up to GOP overreach.
 

Chichikov

Member
Israel is not going to get disarmament. Everybody knows that, including Netanyahu.
Fuck, his offer didn't even called for a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza as a condition for the cease-fire.
And the point of putting such proposal forward is to get the diplomatic ball rolling and start ramping up the pressure on those of reject them, look at history, no one ever accept the first proposal.

And just wait and see, Israel will accept a ceasefire under very similar conditions pretty damn soon.
also interesting

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/jul/26/liberal-zionism-after-gaza/

that's about it for my comments on this issue though.
Ari Shavit is a piece of shit war monger who plays that quasi Thomas Friedman centrist game, but even with less writing talent.
Fuck him.

Real liberal zionists (and I promise you, they exist, even today) have always said that opressing millions of people without human rights will lead to not only an uneding cycle of violence but a moral erosion of Israel. The fact that their predictions came true saddens them, but it does not challenge their world view, quite the opposite actually.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
@Ibishblog
Israel enraged at Kerry reported ceasefire terms. Hamas flatly rejected them. Is Israel misreading the terms, or Hamas misjudging realities?

@Yair_Rosenberg
To recap, both Israel AND the Palestinian Authority have now accused Kerry of sabotaging ceasefire efforts in favor of Hamas. Crazy times.

get kerry the hell out of there. He's making it worse

also interesting

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/jul/26/liberal-zionism-after-gaza/

that's about it for my comments on this issue though.

If Kerry pissed both of them off with the same ceasefire deal then odds are good neither side really wanted one in the first place.
 
Ari Shavit is a piece of shit war monger who plays that quasi Thomas Friedman centrist game, but even with less writing talent.
Fuck him.

Real liberal zionists (and I promise you, they exist, even today) have always said that opressing millions of people without human rights will lead to not only an uneding cycle of violence but a moral erosion of Israel. The fact that their predictions came true saddens them, but it does not challenge their world view, quite the opposite actually.

And this is why I don't discuss this issue on the internet.
 
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