The reaction in 1998 was hysterical. It's one of those rare moments that made me wish we'd had more widespread internet back then.
PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News
- Thread starter bananas
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Aaron Strife
Banned
Would be great if Dems picked up seats in the House and broke even in the Senate.
Will settle for just holding the Senate.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Muslim Guy WANTS to shoot US Troops? Front page complete with portrait.
White Guy ACTUALLY shoots and kills US Troops? 5th item in a cluttered screen.
I'm not a Muslim, but if I was, I'd be annoyed.
Cops vs Troops. They're completely different stories.
On the Nate vs Wang. I sympathetic to nate, the polling has been poor and its silly to base it exclusively on this. Especially in the states we've never had good polling from.
Lucky Forward
Member
To be fair, the trooper shooting occurred last Friday, the guy who supported ISIS was indicted just yesterday. New news gets the headline.
platypotamus
Member
Well, damn.
Aaron Strife
Banned
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics...8.html#/tabPane=tabs-f5c7dea6-1#storylink=cpy
That liberal boogeyman Claire McCaskill
lolllll
That liberal boogeyman Claire McCaskill
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
This is ridiculous...
http://www.thewire.com/politics/201...ers-access-to-obamacare-birth-control/379987/
http://www.thewire.com/politics/201...ers-access-to-obamacare-birth-control/379987/
I don't want to live on this planet anymore
Of course you wouldn't.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Shep Smith did a really good job explaining the Isis and current mideast with the mess it is today. I'm impressed
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Not really the models will converge. Nates model gets more polling centric as the elections approach and polls should reflect fundamentals if they're fundamentals.
This is only a problem this far out.
If it looks like the Dems have an okay shot at holding the Senate, I might be forced to take the day after Election Day off to bask in the meltdowns and recriminations. I know, deep down inside, that I won't be able to sleep on Election Night anyway; I'd be useless on Wednesday.
If the GOP takes the Senate, I'll get used to hearing "the Republican Congress" from various Democrats. A good foil for '16.
theprodigy
Member
But you had no problem doing it in 2012?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm in college right now. Any assignments due on Wednesday I'll have to make sure I have done on Monday because damn if I'm not going to be up all night F5ing DailyKos, GAF, TPM, AP etc.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Ace of spades is good as a dailykos of the right for the house and state races
WayneMorse
Banned
i will be monitoring Free Republic as always but I fear the meltdowns won't be as delicious as they were in 2012.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I've never understood doing this. That site isn't that great for meltdowns and craziness. It's not stormfront or that police site for pure WTFness
Aaron Strife
Banned
I want to see the dumbass reactions to Orman winning in Kansas (if he does) from the same people who were crowing about Taylor dropping out of the race, evidently not realizing the implication at the time.
WayneMorse
Banned
Stormfront pisses me off too much for me to enjoy it and Planet Terror or whatever the fuck Alex Jones calls his forum has a pay gate.
FreeRepublic was pretty entertaining on Election Night 2012. People crying, talking about buying more bullets and prepper stuff, giving-up on the political process, proposing secession, saying that Gawd would render judgement on us all.. it was like their Lawrence v Texas thread from 2003 - lots of wailing and infighting.
2016 is going to be the big one. By all accounts, party fatigue should give the GOP the White House back, and they're counting on this heavily. But if another Dem wins? Hoo boy..
2016 is going to be the big one. By all accounts, party fatigue should give the GOP the White House back, and they're counting on this heavily. But if another Dem wins? Hoo boy..
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Hillary runs (like that's even an uncertainty at this point), I don't see 2016 ever becoming worse for Democrats than it was in 2012, where Romney had a 40% chance or so of winning at his best. It would take some unprecedented level of catastrophe that causes Obama's approval ratings to plummet to Bush levels.
I imagine it will play out the way Republicans hoped 2008 would, where McCain would be seen as a reasonable moderate and Obama a naive idealist whose appeal would only extend to hardline Democrats. Except it'll be Hillary, a reasonable moderate establishment candidate who won't have to bend very far to appease the fringe elements of her base, against some jackwit like Ted Cruz.
I imagine it will play out the way Republicans hoped 2008 would, where McCain would be seen as a reasonable moderate and Obama a naive idealist whose appeal would only extend to hardline Democrats. Except it'll be Hillary, a reasonable moderate establishment candidate who won't have to bend very far to appease the fringe elements of her base, against some jackwit like Ted Cruz.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Obama is already reaching Bush levels.
Aaron Strife
Banned
When his approval rating is in the 20s you can tell me that.
Avon Barksdale
Member
Who ever said that the government is useless was doing it wrong. I applied for my passport two weeks ago and I received it today.....and I didn't have to pay the extra $60 to expedite it either!
Joe Molotov
Member
That was Ronald Reagan, and some would argue that doing it wrong was one of his specialties.
WayneMorse
Banned
NY Times posted an article about how CHIP needs to be re-authorized by September 2015.
If the GOP control the Senate you may as well kiss that program goodbye lmao.
If the GOP control the Senate you may as well kiss that program goodbye lmao.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If GOP wins the Senate Obama's last two years will just be a long vacation interrupted by random speeches that boil down to "You're all giant assholes"
Don't forget the occasional fight to get the debt ceiling raised.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Is it bad if I think her being a woman also helps a lot? I mean breaking the glass ceiling to the absolute top is pretty important just to prove it possible, and I think that is appealing to a lot of people even if they tend to lean Republican.
Honestly if Sanders and Warren are both not even on the ballot, and it's between Hillary, Biden, and O'Malley where they all have the same positions anyway and only differ on who took what position first, I'd vote for Hillary in the primary on the glass ceiling fact alone.
Aaron Strife
Banned
This also helps. I think similar excitement over Obama being the first black president alerted people to his candidacy and turned out voters who otherwise were disinterested in politics.
Not in the way right-wingers whine that "Obama only won because he's black," if he were white he would have won easily given the fundamentals of the election. But people like to be a part of history.
And like with Obama, I'm sure there will be sexist dicks who vote against Hillary purely because she's a woman. But those people would have likely voted GOP anyway.
Edit: New batch of polls from Fox News.
KS - Roberts up 2 (40-38) with Taylor in the mix, down 6 without him (42-48). Governor's race: Brownback down 4.
IA - Tie at 41-41.
NC - Hagan up 41-36.
LA - Landrieu losing 51-38 in runoff (what), only coming in second in the jungle primary (WHAT)
Aside from Louisiana everything looks believable. But their likely voter screen is balls - only people who've voted in 06, 08, 10, and 12 are included.
Hillary would have to catastrophically mismanage her election campaign to lose a 2016 election...
But she has shown an ability to do that in the past...
The Republicans have no shot anymore. With a boring Vanilla Gore/Kerry like candidate on the Dem ticket, they MIGHT have a shot, but I doubt it. 5+ million net votes should be the norm until they change their position on immigration and women's issues.
But she has shown an ability to do that in the past...
The Republicans have no shot anymore. With a boring Vanilla Gore/Kerry like candidate on the Dem ticket, they MIGHT have a shot, but I doubt it. 5+ million net votes should be the norm until they change their position on immigration and women's issues.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The electoral college makes it extremely difficult for them.
Romney could have gotten 5 extra points in every state and won the popular vote by 1, but Obama still would have had 272 electoral votes.
Not to mention states like Georgia, North Carolina, Florida etc. which are trending blue. OFA didn't compete at all in Georgia in 2012 and Obama's vote share only dropped by a point.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Hillary will be fine but it'll be interesting to see if the electorate has incumbent fatigue like in 2000. Except instead of having 5-7 years of a great economy under Clinton, voters will be coming off 7 years of a bad economy under Obama. Will Hillary throw him under the bus? She sounded pretty pro-Obama at the Iowa steakfry last week but maybe that's to be expected since it was a partisan crowd.
Will Obama even speak at the DNC in 2016? At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if he's politely asked not to show up, like Bush in 2008.
Will Obama even speak at the DNC in 2016? At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if he's politely asked not to show up, like Bush in 2008.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Unless Obama's approval ratings absolutely crater, he'll be there. C'mon man. Bush didn't show up because a majority of Republicans hated him. Obama's approval with Democrats is still very high, especially among certain factions like women and minorities.
After Obama leaves office Democrats will do everything they can to promote his legacy and have their own Reagan.
After Obama leaves office Democrats will do everything they can to promote his legacy and have their own Reagan.
JesseEwiak
Member
Nah, the DNC will be the coronation of the Edward Snowden/Cornel West ticket. Oh wait, actual voters, not hipsters on Reddit determine the nominee.
Aaron Strife
Banned
JesseEwiak
Member
C'mon, when I think of people who can lead a liberal uprising against the most popular woman in the Democratic Party, I think of a white guy from Montana who has a horrible history on gun and environmental issues.
We'll end up with a ~5.5% unemployment rate and the longest consecutive job creation in forever. All while recovering from the worst collapse since The Great Depression. Fox News has been able to brainwash Americans about Obama by selling catchword narratives like "Leading from Behind" and "Benghazi" - but it's been proven that they can't translate that to Presidential Year Election results.
Sean Hannity straight up spent 2 months talking about nothing but Bill Ayers and Reverend Wright and still couldn't move the needle. The only reason GOP leaders win anything in off year elections is low voter turnout and gerrymandered districts, that's not having an effect in 2016.
WayneMorse
Banned
There's more to the economy than unemployment, even if it gets down to 5.5% wage growth will still be stagnant and prices getting higher by the day.
zero shift
Banned
This is something both Republicans and Democrats seem to ignore.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Ideally, as we get closer to full employment, employees will be moving up in their fields and wages will increase. I thought I read that this was happening already (as well as that new jobs being created are becoming higher paid and more specialized).
The economy is recovering, that's a fact. But it doesn't feel like it is - it'll take years to recover from the damage from the 2008 recession. At the end of his term Obama will get to say ~10 million jobs were created during his presidency. He'll look better in hindsight.
The economy is recovering, that's a fact. But it doesn't feel like it is - it'll take years to recover from the damage from the 2008 recession. At the end of his term Obama will get to say ~10 million jobs were created during his presidency. He'll look better in hindsight.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Fox has got some snazzy #benghazi graphics and packages.
That's 30 plus year trends. It's shitty, don't get me wrong, but it's world's away from "brink of collapse" and that component isn't unique to the Obama economy. Even the great Clinton economy had the same trends.
Any economic growth that includes massive growth in the Stock Market and healthy growth in the Real Estate market is going to skew to the wealthiest among us, they've got the capital to most benefit.
On the flip side, plenty of every day people saw massive growth in their retirement plans over the past 5 years that aren't usually calculated when we discuss "wage growth"
In fairness, it's because it isn't true.
Wage growth could certainly be stronger, but in no way is inflation outpacing it.
In fairness, it's because it isn't true.
Wage growth could certainly be stronger, but in no way is inflation outpacing it.
b-b-but CNBC told me inflation is out of control! Thankfully I've only lost a lot of my money following their advice and not all of it!
zero shift
Banned
Well this is what I look at.In fairness, it's because it isn't true.
Wage growth could certainly be stronger, but in no way is inflation outpacing it.
Crater isn't the correct word but more so stagnation is.
The issues isn't inflation canceling wage growth out (inflation was actually at the highest when wage growth was at its peak) but more so that gdp growth hasn't been transferring toward wages as much as before.
EDIT - I'll try to find a more recent chart. 2008 was six years ago damn. But my point should still stand.
Well this is what I look at.
Crater isn't the correct word but more so stagnation is.
The issues isn't inflation canceling wage growth out (inflation was actually at the highest when wage growth was at its peak) but more so that gdp growth hasn't been transferring toward wages as much as before.
Your graph shows clearly that stagnation isn't the right word either. Stagnation is a halt in an ongoing trend. But real wages haven't trended upwards since 1972, except under Clinton.
It seems unreasonable to expect Obama, while ending a recession, to also solve a societal problem that began under Nixon.
zero shift
Banned
Well you can't expect Obama to do really much of anything due to the legislative branch.
I'm just disappointed that neither party seems to point at the lack of wage growth.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
i'm kinda curious what conservatives here in the US think of Scottish independence.
What would adam smith do?
What would adam smith do?
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