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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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benjipwns

Banned
I can get behind looking at other numbers to show the state of the economy as not all there yet, like wages or participation rate or U6 unemployment, but it does seem you guys are putting too high of standards on the normal U3 unemployment numbers.
U3 is bleh but compact, that's why it's the only one anyone ever reports on. If you're not going to use the participation rate then at least use U6 and add 2-3 points for the prison population.

Though I of course personally find all the aggregate government statistics to be suspect, if only because they deliberately change how they're calculated from time to time. I have no problem with them adding new metrics, it's when they discontinue the original or change the calculation but keep the name while keeping the old data under the old calculation for past years.

I really can't take anyone seriously who does anything with CPI-U after they changed it twice in fifteen years, and then created C-CPI-U as a "more accurate" substitute that just so happens to perfectly compress the cost of living increases in social security. The "basket of goods" is some shady shit too. (Gingrich and Greenspan had a hand fist deep in this.)

GDP has a whole host of other problems, but the governments "revised" those figures decades later, almost always upwards.

I'd also like to see the government have to follow accounting law. Or at least just publish a GAAP version of their finances.

I'm kidding, I'm kidding, how about that coercive violence of the state huh?
 

Lord Fagan

Junior Member
Except, the batshit craziness has been cranked up to 15 nowadays.

That's why the delegate selection process was so important, and the ratification took a year. The chief opponent of the original plan, Patrick Henry, had a big hand in the Bill of Rights. I'm sure Federalists thought he was nutsoid destructoid, albeit using a more formal, flowery language.

But at the time, under the Articles of Confederation, our military was a disorganized mess, the government was having an inordinately difficult time with acquiring needed revenue, intense political divisions were believed to be without compromise, and the nation was beset on all sides by enemies making no bones about taking full advantage of these structural inadequacies. Does this state of affairs sound similar to anything reported in more recent times?

Now, I'm not totally daft and idealistic to a fault. Article V would have to be fully engaged, you'd need an amendment to even start the process, which is no hop, skip, and jump. It's literally the most difficult legislative feat to achieve. But I don't think everybody in power and influence is crazy, and totally untrustworthy. I have to believe that enough rational actors out there know that the near and far future is at stake, and there are far more violent roads we could go down, and have. People deify the Founders, but forget that they were mortal men, conflicted and ambitious. They saw a destiny they wanted, and went for it, and we all largely benefit for their political courage. Was it a perfect plan from the start? Most certainly not(black people certainly didn't fare to well at the dawn of the republic). But we still kept fixing, kept evolving, kept reaching higher. Letting our concerns for the rabble-rousers and the disingenuous win the day dishonors the work and accomplishments of those bold revolutionaries, and shortchanges our own ability to emulate, or perhaps, even surpass them.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I think if it ever comes to it, things will break-down before we can get enough votes for a convention. It will take something of a horrible scale to happen.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Believe it or not (and Mamba (and Puddles) probably is the only one who would believe this on the face), it's actually a data annoyance thing more than it is politically based. Inconsistencies, noise and aggregates with the parts discarded (and estimates everywhere!) abound.

And foreign data? Good god. At least the US government keeps the "documents" more or less the same, some of the EU countries redo the whole thing every three years.

I still don't know why people do comparative studies where the definition of the variables are completely different from country to country. Boredom I assume. Also no you can't substitute GNI for GDP for that country because you only have GNI but you're using GDP for all the rest, get a different country. No I don't understand why when you add the females in school and males in school you get 103% of the total students figure, just ignore it and don't tell anybody, nobody's going to check your data anyway because this paper is so stupid nobody's going to read past the abstract after the state collapses and we discard political science for spiritual enlightenment in the utopia.

Wait...where was I? Snyder up 5 in the same polls that have Peters up 11? That sounds about right.
 
What complexities are you thinking of here? So far all I'm getting from your posts is that you feel strongly about adjectives. What do you think about the economy?

Personally, while I think this represents a real albeit slow recovery, I can appreciate Chichikov's perspective. Zero unemployment is a practical (but not political) possibility today, so accepting 6% because of the trendline is pretty unfortunate.

A better trend line is positive news. Yes, it should be better. However, every failure of Obama's is magnified and blown up. We live in a world where people think Mitt fucking Romney would have been a better president. A narrative exists that Obama can't do anything right.

Of course, the successes need to be magnified and blown up to combat that narrative. This is a positive trend line, and it's a success.
 

benjipwns

Banned
The chief opponent of the original plan, Patrick Henry, had a big hand in the Bill of Rights. I'm sure Federalists thought he was nutsoid destructoid, albeit using a more formal, flowery language.
They probably thought that more about Paine, especially after he nearly got himself killed in France like five times and almost blamed it all on a jealous George Washington.

And wrote shit like this:
All national institutions of churches, whether Jewish, Christian, or Turkish, appear to me no other than human inventions set up to terrify and enslave mankind, and monopolize power and profit.
There never did, there never will, and there never can, exist a Parliament, or any description of men, or any generation of men, in any country, possessed of the right or the power of binding and controlling posterity to the "end of time," or of commanding for ever how the world shall be governed, or who shall govern it; and therefore all such clauses, acts or declarations by which the makers of them attempt to do what they have neither the right nor the power to do, nor the power to execute, are in themselves null and void.
Great part of that order which reigns among mankind is not the effect of government. It has its origin in the principles of society and the natural constitution of man. It existed prior to government, and would exist if the formality of government was abolished. The mutual dependence and reciprocal interest which man has upon man, and all the parts of civilised community upon each other, create that great chain of connection which holds it together. The landholder, the farmer, the manufacturer, the merchant, the tradesman, and every occupation, prospers by the aid which each receives from the other, and from the whole. Common interest regulates their concerns, and forms their law; and the laws which common usage ordains, have a greater influence than the laws of government. In fine, society performs for itself almost everything which is ascribed to government.
 
JQsIkNQ.jpg
 

benjipwns

Banned
http://freebeacon.com/blog/how-to-become-a-left-wing-celebrity/
My former college professor posted this Media Matters clip of Reza Aslan responding to a rant from Bill Maher, the comedian liberals adore right up to the minute he starts talking about Islam the same way he talks about Christianity—with disdain. Aslan is an associate professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside, but he’s also regarded as an expert on religion, apparently, and judging by the 7.4 million views for this particular clip, he also seems to be a minor intellectual celebrity.

The Media Matters headline reads: “You need to watch this: Reza Aslan calls out the media for generalization and bigotry when reporting on Muslims.” Salon made it the video of the week: “Reza Aslan takes down Bill Maher’s ‘facile arguments’ on Islam in just 5 minutes.”

Basically, Aslan wants the media to stop using Saudi Arabia to make generalizations about violence and women’s rights in Islamic societies. He calls that “the definition of bigotry.” There are plenty of Muslim countries, he argues, that are less violent and more respecting of women’s rights than Saudi Arabia, and it’s wrong to generalize.

Because his CNN arbiters don’t really know what they’re talking about, Aslan appears to be DEMOLISHING his opposition, and striking a decisive blow for all who oppose bigotry. This explains why so many liberals loved the video, and proceeded to wet themselves in the Facebook comments section.
 

The washington free beacon is a austroturfed, hip, 'trolling is cool' site. Also, It writers are the epitome of white priviliged frat douche.

That article and its style of 'pwned' take down of 'stupid liberals' could easily be applied to the US and the states these guys champion.

They're the hip, national review with all of the sexism and racism in tact. They are trash and horrible people.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
|OT| So PD, Benji, and Metalloprotein walk into a bar...

...and the bartender asks, "Why the long post?"

To which they reply:

PhoenixDark' said:
I'm just concerned that Obama is squandering whatever good will remains on the left. Between the golfing, the Secret Service fiasco, ebola, and the new war in Iraq, he seems to not realize the consequences of his inaction.

benjipwns' said:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/somebodysayingsomethingfolkswillfindoutrageous

Metaphoreus' said:
bartender said:

"The"? You must misunderstand. There were three long posts in rapid succession. To which do you refer?

bartender said:
long post?

The problem we're having here is that you don't understand what "long" means in this context. Here's how my good friend and faithful patron Antonin Gregory Scalia put it in his seminal opinion in Whothefuckcares v. Whyareyoudoingthis--

Just kidding. IT'S METAMORPHING TIME!

At which point Metaphoreus' transforms into a mastodon and tramples the bartender and the bar, PhoenixDark' theory-crafts an impenetrable troll fortress, and benjipwns' grows a goatee and posts funny comments on a mirror-universe forum, leaving the other members of PoliGAF shaken to their core.
 
You forget something incredibly important.

If you only look quickly you think the url says FREE BACON.

The articles actually a pretty funny confusing mess of writing. So is this one about how we need to panic about ISIS killing us with Ebola thanks to President Obola: http://freebeacon.com/columns/the-case-for-panic/
I was gonna intentionally use bacon but with my history of horrible spelling and typing I figured people wouldn't know it was intentional
 

benjipwns

Banned
Linking to lewrockwell is only a last resort because he's got the rights to a certain amount of Rothbard's works.

I do like the minimalist site design though. It can get only a few steps above InfoWars and PrisonPlanet however. At least it's not an Objectivist site which would be below even those two.

*shudders* objectivists *shaking*
 

Chichikov

Member
Fair enough, I'm not here to diminish the very real pain of those needing economic relief. If that's how it's coming off, I apologize. I don't mean to be misunderstood. And I certainly don't think I'm on a caps locked crusade so much as I'm digging for more insight than bite-sized, bullet point rhetoric when discussing the complexities behind all that economic hardship and suffering.

Say what you want about the fisking, but it did conjure a more robust explanation of your point of view, Chichikov, which I appreciate. Thank you.
No worries, my post came across as too aggressive anyway.

And regarding breaking up posts, it's just a pet peeve of mine, I think it make for a tedious discussion, sometime it's warranted, like if someone makes a couple of completely unrelated, but I personally believe it's best avoided as much as possible.
But of course, I ain't the style police (though those pants make you look fat), you can post as you see fit.
 
...and the bartender asks, "Why the long post?"

To which they reply:







At which point Metaphoreus' transforms into a mastodon and tramples the bartender and the bar, PhoenixDark' theory-crafts an impenetrable troll fortress, and benjipwns' grows a goatee and posts funny comments on a mirror-universe forum, leaving the other members of PoliGAF shaken to their core.
Then, the bartender takes his gun out and says "I'm gonna count to 3...."
 

Lord Fagan

Junior Member
No worries, my post came across as too aggressive anyway.

Likewise, brosef.

I can get lost in the silly details, sometimes. Not one of those morning people. Glad we can hug this out. I'm very interested in everybody's opinions, more slanted on learning than persuading. But I dig pro politics the way more mainstream folks dig pro sports. Most of my network of friends thinks I'm kind of weird when every other November creeps around.

But, this is definitely the greatest and most intricate and worthwhile game of all.
 
I want this to be the new PoliGAF headline

Which I want to make soon because I haven't done that yet :(

Anyone who's doubting 2014 turnout (at least in Iowa), here's a stat from the DSCC - 36% of Democrats requesting absentee ballots didn't vote in 2010, compared to just 8% of Republicans. Any likely voter model that's discounting people who didn't vote then could be problematic.
 

Vahagn

Member
10433698_10101058129981136_6683670616808408388_n.jpg



10665279_10101058130220656_590699722339161210_n.jpg



The fact that ANYONE in America still thinks that Republicans are better at running the economy then Democrats is just proof at how bad Dems are at actually playing the politics game.
 

Elrond Hubbard

Neo Member
So the Supreme Court isn't taking up King v Burwell?

Really good news if so. The DC Circuit that Harry Reid packed will overturn Halbig, and the 10th Circuit should easily overturn Pruitt. And all will be well. And Metapod will cry tears of impotent rage.
 

Elrond Hubbard

Neo Member
I think full employment is around 3 or 4%

The chief US economist from IHS told me he thinks the natural rate of full employment is higher than it used to be. Mid to high 4s, maybe even closer to 5%. We won't see unemployment rates in the 3s without a huge construction boom to soak up the under-educated workers, and that doesn't look likely. Unless we start making major infrastructure investments :trollface

Edit: Jesus Christ, post more, people. I shouldn't be racking up 3 posts in a row when I'm not even posting that frequently. Need a combo-breaker in this shit.
 
10433698_10101058129981136_6683670616808408388_n.jpg



10665279_10101058130220656_590699722339161210_n.jpg



The fact that ANYONE in America still thinks that Republicans are better at running the economy then Democrats is just proof at how bad Dems are at actually playing the politics game.

The economy still sucks. That's why the Dems can't win that message. It's not dictated by an actual message, it's dictated by circumstances and most people in the middle class are still worse off right now. New grads are worse off.

Sorry, but this has nothing to do with messaging. Most people think the 90s economy was awesome because Bill Clinton. Oh man, if we only had Bill Clinton. Dems must be great at messaging, right?
 

Elrond Hubbard

Neo Member
GDP has a whole host of other problems, but the governments "revised" those figures decades later, almost always upwards.

I'd also like to see the government have to follow accounting law. Or at least just publish a GAAP version of their finances.

Karakand for Secretary of the Treasury.
 

Wilsongt

Member
10433698_10101058129981136_6683670616808408388_n.jpg



10665279_10101058130220656_590699722339161210_n.jpg



The fact that ANYONE in America still thinks that Republicans are better at running the economy then Democrats is just proof at how bad Dems are at actually playing the politics game.


McCain + Romney recovery + Americans hyping up the new Republican regime which will bring no taxes and infinite prosperity to the world.
 
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — A judge struck down part of Missouri's gay marriage ban for the first time on Friday by ordering the state to recognize same-sex marriages legally performed in other states, saying state laws banning the unions single out gay couples "for no logical reason."

The order means such couples will be eligible to sign up for a wide range of tax, health insurance, veterans and other benefits now afforded to opposite-sex married couples. Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster, who has defended the state's ban on gay marriage, said his office was reviewing the ruling.

The decision comes in a lawsuit filed by 10 same-sex couples who legally married outside the state, including Arlene Zarembka and Zuleyma Tang-Martinez. The St. Louis couple, who married in Canada, said Friday's ruling could boost their household income, and they plan to apply Monday for Zarembka to receive Social Security benefits as Tang-Martinez's spouse.

"To me, it's a real validation by the judge of our relationship and our commitment to each other," Tang-Martinez said.

The American Civil Liberties Union, which is helping the couples, noted the ruling was a first in the state.

"We're gratified that the court recognized that married same-sex couples and their families are no different than other couples, and that the Constitution requires them to be treated equally," ACLU attorney Tony Rothert said. "This is not the first court to reach this conclusion, but it is the first court to do so in Missouri, so it's a tremendous day for our state."

Jackson County Circuit Judge J. Dale Youngs sided with the couples, who argue that their rights to equal protection and due process are being violated by Missouri's ban on gay marriage. Youngs said the couples deserve the same recognition as opposite-sex couples who married in other states.

"The undisputed facts before the Court show that, to the extent these laws prohibit plaintiffs' legally contracted marriages from other states being recognized here, they are wholly irrational, do not rest upon any reasonable basis, and are purely arbitrary," Youngs wrote. "All they do is treat one segment of the population — gay men and lesbians — differently than their same-sex counterparts, for no logical reason."

The lawsuit before Youngs only challenges Missouri's refusal to recognize marriages legally performed outside the state, not laws that bar same-sex couples from getting married in Missouri.

Rothert said the ruling means that thousands of Missouri couples can now qualify for spousal government benefits and, on a smaller level, change their last names to match their spouse's on their Missouri driver's license.

The case is among at least three challenging Missouri's ban: There is a federal challenge in Kansas City, and a St. Louis case focuses on city officials who issued marriage licenses to four same-sex couples to trigger a legal test of the ban.

The lawsuits are based on the same arguments that led the U.S. Supreme Court last year to overturn part of the federal Defense of Marriage Act that denied a tax, health and other benefits to legally married gay couples.

In Missouri, Youngs said he expects the state Supreme Court to "provide the last word on all of the important legal issues presented by this case."

Same-sex marriage is now legal in 19 states and the District of Columbia. The ACLU has cases pending against 13 other states with such bans, including five cases currently before federal appeals courts.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/7d44...missouri-judge-sides-married-same-sex-couples

Just end this this term, SCOTUS.

gay marriage is de facto legal is Missouri now, lolz.
 

Vahagn

Member
The economy still sucks. That's why the Dems can't win that message. It's not dictated by an actual message, it's dictated by circumstances and most people in the middle class are still worse off right now. New grads are worse off.

Sorry, but this has nothing to do with messaging. Most people think the 90s economy was awesome because Bill Clinton. Oh man, if we only had Bill Clinton. Dems must be great at messaging, right?

The "economy sucks" compared to what? It's a hell of a lot better than 1935 I can tell you that. It's even better than this far into Reagan's administration. It's a hell of a lot better than 2008.

Most Americans think Reagan lowered the debt and that unemployment was non existent in his term, that's pure messaging. The idea that we're in more danger today then before or after 9/11 is also absurd.


Americans being woefully misinformed with opinions that the GOP is selling isn't an accident man.
 
The "economy sucks" compared to what? It's a hell of a lot better than 1935 I can tell you that. It's even better than this far into Reagan's administration. It's a hell of a lot better than 2008.

Most Americans think Reagan lowered the debt and that unemployment was non existent in his term, that's pure messaging. The idea that we're in more danger today then before or after 9/11 is also absurd.


Americans being woefully misinformed with opinions that the GOP is selling isn't an accident man.

We're worse off than pretty much anytime from 1995-2007. Now even in dispute.

Bringing up 1935 is dumb since almost no one around today remembers it. 2008 is equally dumb because I never said the economy is getting worse.

I said it still sucks. It doesn't suck balls like 2008 and 2009 did, but it sucks.


6a00e551f08003883401b8d0766614970c-pi


6a00e551f08003883401b7c6ec7cc3970b-pi


^^ This fucking sucks.

And I haven't touched on wages.

It's not about messaging. People don't follow politics and people don't understand government. The GOP bet on this and hoped that making the economy recover slowly it would help them. Fortunately, in a Presidential election, you also need ideas you propose (that aren't rehashed garbage) to capture the electorate and they failed there.


For most new entrants and middle-aged folks in the workforce, the economy still fucking sucks. That trumps everything.


edit: This is why Chichikov isn't jumping for joy at these numbers. Because he understands that while it's better than worse numbers, it's far below where we should be at this time. I always knew it would be a slower recovery, but with what I'd call "normal" gov't help, we'd be so much further along this recovery. People are suffering as a result. mid-level skilled workers who lost their jobs in their late 40s and early 50s can't find work, still. College grads basically need to be hooked up by contacts. It's a fucking mess of an economy.

People can feel this. And they naturally will blame the President no matter how wrong it is. It will always be this way.
 
And if you had a Republican in office we would be exactly like Europe with their double dip.

Austerity does not work and that's the only other option that we are going to be given.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
So the Supreme Court isn't taking up King v Burwell?

Really good news if so. The DC Circuit that Harry Reid packed will overturn Halbig, and the 10th Circuit should easily overturn Pruitt. And all will be well. And Metapod will cry tears of impotent rage.

The government's brief opposing certiorari wasn't even due until today.

Honestly, the way you keep carrying on about this, I think you actually might cry if the case comes out the other way.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Does anyone have the current net job total since Obama came into office?

(if you have both for the overall numbers [public + private] and just private, that would be great)

The bartender was trampled, and what will a gun do against a mastodon or impenetrable troll fortress, anyways?

you weren't supposed to transform into actual mastadon damn you
 
Does anyone have the current net job total since Obama came into office?

(if you have both for the overall numbers [public + private] and just private, that would be great)



you weren't supposed to transform into actual mastadon damn you

January 2009 total nonfarm: 133,768; private: 111,196; gov't: 22,572

Sept. 2014 total nonfarm: 139,435; private: 117,524; gov't: 21,911

Differences - nonfarm: +5,667; private: +6,328; gov't: -661

Based on Establishment data.


Household data had 141,748,000 million workers in Jan of 2009.

For September of this year, it's 146,368,000

That's a 4.6 million difference (of course, since the economy was cratering, the household data almost certainly was lagging in layoffs)
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
January 2009 total nonfarm: 133,768; private: 111,196; gov't: 22,572

Sept. 2014 total nonfarm: 139,435; private: 117,524; gov't: 21,911

Differences - nonfarm: +5,667; private: +6,328; gov't: -661

Based on Establishment data.


Household data had 141,748,000 million workers in Jan of 2009.

For September of this year, it's 146,368,000

That's a 4.6 million difference (of course, since the economy was cratering, the household data almost certainly was lagging in layoffs)

And this is why I love you, BM. <3

Unlike some people...


So Obama's got 6.3 million net private sector jobs under his belt so far. For comparison, Bush had under 1 million by the end of his term, if I'm not mistaken.
 
And this is why I love you, BM. <3

Unlike some people...


So Obama's got 6.3 million net private sector jobs under his belt so far. For comparison, Bush had under 1 million by the end of his term, if I'm not mistaken.

That includes most of January which Obama really wasn't in office for. His numbers go up a bunch without it.


it's a pity he doesn't have net positive government jobs under his belt

It is pretty much the reason the economy still sucks. Even with unaltered growth we would be under 5% ue and higher participation rate
 

Jooney

Member
So are there any entrepreneurs who create their own success here willing to make the new thread, or are we all just a bunch of takers?
 

HylianTom

Banned
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/7d44...missouri-judge-sides-married-same-sex-couples

Just end this this term, SCOTUS.

gay marriage is de facto legal is Missouri now, lolz.

They'll end it. I think that Ginsburg must be feeling pretty certain that Kennedy holds fast as the fifth vote, given how willing she's been to offer public comments
(i.e., hints)
lately.

The country's going to go nuts when the ruling comes down, especially since SCOTUS will be turning-over bans in some of the most conservative states. What's beautiful is that this is going to enrage some of the GOP's scarier base elements; they'll be sure to raise a stink on the issue throughout the 2016 campaign, both during primary season and during the general. Their eventual nominee is going to have to tap dance around the issue, which should be quite fun to watch.

I think I'm going to take off for most of the week that the ruling will come down. This is going to be a once-a-generation kind of ruling.
 

Jooney

Member
The court is explicitly not taking the case.

The states are doing the work currently anyway. Only a few more states before it crosses into more than half the states in the country.
 
I was wondering if anybody could link to me charts or articles going over cost of living or disposable income of the average American over time?
 
That's how West Virginia formed. They pretended they were the Virginia legislature (they weren't, the other guys just didn't show up) and voted to let west Virginia go which congress, now without southern congressmen present consented to! Democracy!

I can't even remember why West Virginia wanted to split off, despite having to read those damn West Virginia Blue Books in junior high. It certainly wasn't because of sympathy for emancipation. The original WV state constitution said that NO blacks, free or slave, were to be within state borders. They had to drop that to be admitted to the Union.

Participation rate fell to a 36 year low, wages are stagnat. Good news is that full time/skllled jobs are increasing but we're still in a huge hole.

But can you imagine the response if Romney was president during this period of jobs increases? Thank god he lost.

Actually, I do think electing Romney would have resulted in a huge amount of jobs. I don't think the number of "job creators" who are deliberately not hiring while Obama is president is insignificant.
 
Actually, I do think electing Romney would have resulted in a huge amount of jobs. I don't think the number of "job creators" who are deliberately not hiring while Obama is president is insignificant.
Not sure I buy that. In the end, we worship the Almighty Dollar no matter who's the boss.
 
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