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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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It's weird because I'm pretty sure most politicians have had some form of university education (probably more-so than us even) and yet a number of them come off as more uneducated than the average citizen.. or maybe that's what they want you to think.

Many of them are just brain-dead ideologues. But some of them know better but are just practicing old fashioned demagoguery. The 'red scare' tactic still works on some old people and hardcore conservatives.
 

thefit

Member
Smell that? Its the smell of 2014 midterm elections!

Don't let the door hit you on the way out Liz!

http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/05/politics/liz-cheney-senate-race/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

Liz Cheney to abandon Senate bid

New York (CNN) -- Liz Cheney, whose upstart bid to unseat Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi sparked a round of warfare in the Republican Party and even within her own family, is dropping out of the Senate primary, sources told CNN late Sunday.

Cheney, the eldest daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, began telling associates of her decision over the weekend and could make an official announcement about the race as early as Monday.

EDIT: Damit i didn't even notice this thread was already 2 pages derp!
 

HyperionX

Member
It's weird because I'm pretty sure most politicians have had some form of university education (probably more-so than us even) and yet a number of them come off as more uneducated than the average citizen.. or maybe that's what they want you to think.

The average citizen is pretty uninformed. Heck, even most of us here in Poli-GAF would do a shitty job coherently expressing valid points on a real world podium.
 

Aylinato

Member
He wants to create some in Detroit. Basically areas with significantly reduced taxes and regulations on businesses, that will allegedly spur growth. Seems more like an easy way for companies to exploit communities and disappear.


Ah yes what black people need more of. Exploitation, and less safety regulations. It's like synder hates black people.
 

relaxor

what?
Put me on the Tweet list . . . . OK, I don't regularly tweet but I view that as a good thing.


Re: Minimum wage discussion.

People need to learn how to discuss the minimum wage issue with the proper framing. Bill Maher figure it out. Frame it as "Why do the rest of us have to subsidize Wal*Mart, KFC, and McDonalds?" They should pay a decent wage or go out of business. The tax-payers should not be subsidizing those businesses by paying for their employees food stamps and healthcare.

That is how you frame the issue. That is a slam dunk.

Yes yes yes, I completely agree.
 

relaxor

what?
To which I would say welfare and food stamps are also necessary because of the failures of the market to autocorrect towards a livable society.
 
Dean Chambers has returned
http://qstarnews.com/2013/12/07/conspiracy-review-was-michelle-obama-really-born-as-a-man/

If nothing else, Obama will forever be known as the guy who made white people jump the shark.

edit: holy shit it's actually a Christwire post that Chambers ran as a real news story lmao
Well he's essentially destroyed the Republican Party in presidential elections. They're still able to perform well in House elections thanks to gerrymandering (2010 was an extremely unfortunate year for them to perform well), but Democrats have built a solid coalition. The states where Obama outperformed his national margin add up to 285 electoral votes.

Ohio and Florida don't coronate the president anymore. The fact that Democrats still win them is a bonus, as well as red states like North Carolina and Georgia (2016, baby).

If Democrats do lose the Senate in November (which I'm skeptical of, as you're aware), it doesn't matter since they'll win it right back in 2016. Probably with a bigger margin than they have now.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
To which I would say welfare and food stamps are also necessary because of the failures of the market to autocorrect towards a livable society.

Then they would respond by saying if poor people are too lazy to get a job, then they deserve to starve.
 
Well he's essentially destroyed the Republican Party in presidential elections. They're still able to perform well in House elections thanks to gerrymandering (2010 was an extremely unfortunate year for them to perform well), but Democrats have built a solid coalition. The states where Obama outperformed his national margin add up to 285 electoral votes.

Ohio and Florida don't coronate the president anymore. The fact that Democrats still win them is a bonus, as well as red states like North Carolina and Georgia (2016, baby).

If Democrats do lose the Senate in November (which I'm skeptical of, as you're aware), it doesn't matter since they'll win it right back in 2016. Probably with a bigger margin than they have now.

The biggest problem the GOP has right now is that they don't have anybody who is actually seen to fix problems. Whatever you may think of them as solutions, Medicare Part D and No Child Left Behind were solutions to problems.

Now, the Republican Party doesn't even do that and they only thing they offer is the destruction of things people actually like - ie. Medicare and Social Security.

A Republican who made the case that Obamacare is bad, but we've got a better plan that will help people, we can streamline government by cutting these specific programs, and so on, but we still need to protect x, y, and z could still win an election.

But, the base doesn't want that anymore. So, here's what the GOP is left with for 2016.

A Blue State governor who has Red State positions on social issues and is an asshole about his other positions. Good luck against the first woman Presidential nominee when you sound like every woman's asshole ex-boyfriend or ex-husband they've had.

A guy who made his bones destroying unions, but has ethical problems and never graduated college.

A loon who makes Peter King seem reasonable.

A couple of retread Governor's who couldn't win the nomination against a flip flopper and a whole bunch of scam artists. Or who failed in their first step on the national stage.

And a guy who could be dangerous if he hadn't had a disastrous response to the SOTU and got kneecapped by his own party on his pet issue.
 
Well he's essentially destroyed the Republican Party in presidential elections. They're still able to perform well in House elections thanks to gerrymandering (2010 was an extremely unfortunate year for them to perform well), but Democrats have built a solid coalition. The states where Obama outperformed his national margin add up to 285 electoral votes.

Ohio and Florida don't coronate the president anymore. The fact that Democrats still win them is a bonus, as well as red states like North Carolina and Georgia (2016, baby).

If Democrats do lose the Senate in November (which I'm skeptical of, as you're aware), it doesn't matter since they'll win it right back in 2016. Probably with a bigger margin than they have now.
That stuff has destroyed the party in other ways too. I'd bet money that Liz Cheney hired a consulting firm to poll interest in her candidacy before deciding to run. And just as they provided Romney with inaccurate, skewed information they did the same for her.

I'm more bullish on the national climate/future. Democrats have an unquestioned demographic advantage but I think 2016 is a "now or never" type opportunity for the GOP, under the right circumstances. Clinton fatigue will come up, the republicans will almost certainly have a younger/fresher candidate, Obamacare might still be an issue, and we don't know where the economy will be. Conventional wisdom says we'll be at or below 7% UE, but things can go south very fast - especially with Wall Street running amok again, housing bubble resurfacing etc.

Basically if the economy is good, Obama will be good - thus making 2016 a democrat's to lose. And obviously republican extremism won't disappear, they'll probably nominate a nut. But I still think Christie is the type of candidate who could topple Hillary. The bridge scandal looks bad but until it produces a smoking gun, I'm going to assume it won't have legs. 2007/2008 displayed the blueprint in how to beat the establishment candidate, and Hillary will be the establishment again in 2016. It'll be an opportunity for a governor to take advantage of. I think Walker is a joke, but Christie...I'm concerned. He'll have a hard time getting the nom obviously, but it's possible.
 
The biggest problem the GOP has right now is that they don't have anybody who is actually seen to fix problems. Whatever you may think of them as solutions, Medicare Part D and No Child Left Behind were solutions to problems.

Now, the Republican Party doesn't even do that and they only thing they offer is the destruction of things people actually like - ie. Medicare and Social Security.

A Republican who made the case that Obamacare is bad, but we've got a better plan that will help people, we can streamline government by cutting these specific programs, and so on, but we still need to protect x, y, and z could still win an election.

But, the base doesn't want that anymore. So, here's what the GOP is left with for 2016.

A Blue State governor who has Red State positions on social issues and is an asshole about his other positions. Good luck against the first woman Presidential nominee when you sound like every woman's asshole ex-boyfriend or ex-husband they've had.

A guy who made his bones destroying unions, but has ethical problems and never graduated college.

A loon who makes Peter King seem reasonable.

A couple of retread Governor's who couldn't win the nomination against a flip flopper and a whole bunch of scam artists. Or who failed in their first step on the national stage.

And a guy who could be dangerous if he hadn't had a disastrous response to the SOTU and got kneecapped by his own party on his pet issue.
I feel like if you transposed Jon Huntsman's positions to someone incredibly charismatic, you'd have a winning candidate.

They'd probably have to run in a Democratic primary though.

That stuff has destroyed the party in other ways too. I'd bet money that Liz Cheney hired a consulting firm to poll interest in her candidacy before deciding to run. And just as they provided Romney with inaccurate, skewed information they did the same for her.

I'm more bullish on the national climate/future. Democrats have an unquestioned demographic advantage but I think 2016 is a "now or never" type opportunity for the GOP, under the right circumstances. Clinton fatigue will come up, the republicans will almost certainly have a younger/fresher candidate, Obamacare might still be an issue, and we don't know where the economy will be. Conventional wisdom says we'll be at or below 7% UE, but things can go south very fast - especially with Wall Street running amok again, housing bubble resurfacing etc.

Basically if the economy is good, Obama will be good - thus making 2016 a democrat's to lose. And obviously republican extremism won't disappear, they'll probably nominate a nut. But I still think Christie is the type of candidate who could topple Hillary. The bridge scandal looks bad but until it produces a smoking gun, I'm going to assume it won't have legs. 2007/2008 displayed the blueprint in how to beat the establishment candidate, and Hillary will be the establishment again in 2016. It'll be an opportunity for a governor to take advantage of. I think Walker is a joke, but Christie...I'm concerned. He'll have a hard time getting the nom obviously, but it's possible.
I think Christie is less of a force than people are making him out to be. He gets to be a loud asshole to teachers and journalists in New Jersey but I don't think that will play on the national stage.

His issues in a primary will be more pronounced than Romney's simply because of this:

20132904161936.jpg


Romney always got to paint himself as the anti-Obama because there was never a point where he had to work with him - he was governor from 2003-2007, Obama came into office in 2009. That image will sink Christie.

The nominee isn't going to be some nutter like Ted Cruz, that would be too good to be true. But it's not going to be Christie.
 

Aaron

Member
Image counts too much on the national stage. Even a slimmer Christie is still a fatty. The last fatty we had in office was Taft, and he only got the job because he was hand picked by Roosevelt. Christie isn't going to get that level of support from anyone.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Liz Cheney issued a statement Monday morning announcing her plans to discontinue her campaign for a Wyoming Senate seat, citing "serious health issues" in her family.

"Serious health issues have recently arisen in our family, and under the circumstances, I have decided to discontinue my campaign," Cheney said in the statement. "My children and their futures were the motivation for our campaign and their health and well-being will always be my overriding priority."

Cheney, who was challenging Sen. Mike Enzi in the Republican primary, said that she and her husband wanted to thank all of her supporters for their help.

"As a mother and a patriot, I know that the work of defending freedom and protecting liberty must continue for each generation," Cheney continued. "Though this campaign stops today, my commitment to keep fighting with you and your families for the fundamental values that have made this nation and Wyoming great will never stop."
.
 
So huh...do we believe Lizzy's reason?

Looking at how shady she has been, I want to say she saw the writing on the wall and wanted a way out before being humiliated in the primary.
 
Well, then people will argue the solution to that would be to eliminate welfare and food stamps, and therefore we won't be subsidizing anyone any more!

Pretty much. Especially with the radical individualist libertarian movement, the argument essentially boils down to: "It's not the government's job to enforce wages or subsidize people's lively hood if they can't find a good enough job."
 
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/01/the-agony-of-frank-luntz/282766/

Apparently the 2012 campaign destroyed Frank Luntz...

Luntz knew that he, a maker of political messages and attacks and advertisements, had helped create this negativity, and it haunted him. But it was Obama he principally blamed. The people in his focus groups, he perceived, had absorbed the president's message of class divisions, haves and have-nots, of redistribution. It was a message Luntz believed to be profoundly wrong, but one so powerful he had no slogans, no arguments with which to beat it back. In reelecting Obama, the people had spoken. And the people, he believed, were wrong. Having spent his career telling politicians what the people wanted to hear, Luntz now believed the people had been corrupted and were beyond saving. Obama had ruined the electorate, set them at each other's throats, and there was no way to turn back.

Frank Luntz: THE PEOPLE ARE WRONG!
 
Believe it or not Flint is way worse and just as much 'merkin as Detroit. The scary thing is Flint never recovered from the 80s' plant closings, and even more scary is that Snyder wants Detroit to end up like Flint.
I've been to some pretty bad areas of Detroit and seen bad things, but Flint is the only area place in Michigan where I felt truly afraid. In Detroit for the most part, if you essentially follow the rules you'll be fine; don't wear the wrong colors, watch yourself, don't walk around certain areas past dark, etc. In Flint anything can happen at any time, for any reason. It's a war zone.
 

Diablos

Member
I've been to some pretty bad areas of Detroit and seen bad things, but Flint is the only area place in Michigan where I felt truly afraid. In Detroit for the most part, if you essentially follow the rules you'll be fine; don't wear the wrong colors, watch yourself, don't walk around certain areas past dark, etc. In Flint anything can happen at any time, for any reason. It's a war zone.
Damn, if Flint is where you feel "truly afraid' even after being in Detroit that is pretty scary. I don't know how much worse it can get.

Seems like perhaps you are just accustomed to the rules of getting by in Detroit per se and the fear factor has worn off... doesn't make it sunshine and rainbows though.
 
Damn, if Flint is where you feel "truly afraid' despite being in Detroit that is pretty scary. I don't know how much worse it can get.

Seems like perhaps you are just accustomed to the rules of getting by in Detroit per se and the fear factor has worn off... doesn't make it sunshine and rainbows though.
Well as Alyinato will tell you, there are plenty of great areas in Detroit. The national perception is that it's a collective dump but I'd recommend people drive through for themselves. It's weird seeing what seems like a bombing target, then a couple blocks later a beautiful area of old houses or a botanical garden. My mom grew up about 5 minutes from where the Jacksons would stay in the 60s, and used to watch them play in their gated yard. Today that block is still nice, with huge houses...but the blocks around it (including my mom and grandparent's old house) are full of abandoned houses and dangerous alleys.

Downtown is very nice too, and there are some very nice neighborhoods down there.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Supreme court blocks same sex marriage in Utah pending appeal :(

Well this was always going to happen. There's no way the decision gets reversed though, there are no legal grounds for doing so. What can happen is they can force gay marriage on every state, if the Supremes decide to pick the case up at some point.
 

Chichikov

Member
Damn, if Flint is where you feel "truly afraid' even after being in Detroit that is pretty scary. I don't know how much worse it can get.

Seems like perhaps you are just accustomed to the rules of getting by in Detroit per se and the fear factor has worn off... doesn't make it sunshine and rainbows though.
Detroit isn't too bad, at least not all bad, I've been to DEMF and movement, and had a blast and a half. Sure it has sketchy neighborhoods, but few American cities don't.
Flint on the other hand (which to my shame, I went to only because Roger and Me, which is way too close to poverty tourism than I would ever admit to my IRL friends) is sketch central, and this coming from someone who have been in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
 

Wilsongt

Member
This fucking Pope.

Pope calls for fresh Church approach to children of gay parents

Rome (AFP) - Pope Francis has called for a rethink in the way the Catholic Church deals with the children of gay couples and divorced parents, warning against "administering a vaccine against faith".

"On an educational level, gay unions raise challenges for us today which for us are sometimes difficult to understand," Francis said in a speech to the Catholic Union of Superiors General in November, extracts of which were published on Italian media websites on Saturday.

"The number of children in schools whose parents have separated is very high," he said, adding that family make-ups were also changing.

"I remember a case in which a sad little girl confessed to her teacher: 'my mother's girlfriend doesn't love me'," he was quoted as saying.

The pontiff said educational leaders should ask themselves "how can we proclaim Christ to a generation that is changing?"


"We must be careful not to administer a vaccine against faith to them," the 77-year-old added.


Though the Church has often been in conflict with the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community over its opposition to same-sex marriage and to homosexuality, Francis has drawn praise for attempts to be inclusive.

In July he reached out to gays, declaring that "if someone is gay and seeks the Lord with good will, who am I to judge?"

And in December, the Advocate magazine -- dedicated to the gay and lesbian community -- chose the head of the Catholic Church as the "single most influential person of 2013 on the lives of LGBT people."


The reform-minded pontiff has also called an extraordinary assembly of the Synod of Bishops next year to discuss the Church's position with regard to the family, which is expected to address among other issues the problem of divorcees remarrying and children of divorced parents.
 

K-19

Banned

What makes me laugh a lot is the fact that the message still the same and he is not deviating from it: homosexuality is a sin in th bible. Pope Francis is as conservative as Benedict, he basically has a better communication and he is trying new ways to promote his faith. There won't be any major change, just a accentuation of the "love" thing. I don't get why people get so excited.
 

Wilsongt

Member
What makes me laugh a lot is the fact that the message still the same and he is not deviating from it: homosexuality is a sin in th bible. Pope Francis is as conservative as Benedict, he basically has a better communication and he is trying new ways to promote his faith. There won't be any major change, just a accentuation of the "love" thing. I don't get why people get so excited.

Well, at least Francis doesn't have that evil aura to him that Benedict did.
 
Detroit isn't too bad, at least not all bad, I've been to DEMF and movement, and had a blast and a half. Sure it has sketchy neighborhoods, but few American cities don't.
Flint on the other hand (which to my shame, I went to only because Roger and Me, which is way too close to poverty tourism than I would ever admit to my IRL friends) is sketch central, and this coming from someone who have been in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
My wife went to school in Flint. The campus area covering a few blocks was relatively safe from the rest of the city. Outside of that, you have to stick to pretty much curfew hours if you wanna be alive.
 
Jim Gerlach (R-PA) is retiring. His son went to school with me. That is all.

R+1 district.
Holy shit!

Remember a couple weeks ago when I said if Democrats were to win the House, they'd need to luck out on more surprise retirements?

Bingo bango foshangolango.

Of the 10 (not counting those running for higher office) congressmen retiring, 9 are Republicans and only 1 is a Democrat.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
We still need a healthier climate for Democrats as in maybe some more good economic news and maybe no more scandals. How about some NSA reforms, Bams? k thanks.
 

Piecake

Member
What makes me laugh a lot is the fact that the message still the same and he is not deviating from it: homosexuality is a sin in th bible. Pope Francis is as conservative as Benedict, he basically has a better communication and he is trying new ways to promote his faith. There won't be any major change, just a accentuation of the "love" thing. I don't get why people get so excited.

I think there is a pretty big difference between "We don't want you since you are going to burn in hell" and "Being gay is a sin, but come on in and worship, your sins are for God to decide"

One is exclusive and the other is inclusive
 
We still need a healthier climate for Democrats as in maybe some more good economic news and maybe no more scandals. How about some NSA reforms, Bams? k thanks.
Totally, but given that most of the retiring GOPers hail from swing districts, even if the generic ballot were tied Democrats would have a good chance at making some decent gains.

Sabato said of the 7 GOP-held seats he's rating as tossups, 5 are open seats, which is a fair assessment.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I think there is a pretty big difference between "We don't want you since you are going to burn in hell" and "Being gay is a sin, but come on in and worship, your sins are for God to decide"

One is exclusive and the other is inclusive

The latter also opens the door for more liberal popes to be even more inclusive and maybe even do away with the "homosexuality is a sin" thing down the line. Of course, an organization as old and large as the Catholic Church isn't going to be changing anytime soon. Shit they only apologized to Galileo in 1992. So any small step forward is a big one.
 

Wilsongt

Member
How to we get rid of the shittastic congress in Washington, D.C? Move it to Nebraska! Because what is wrong with Washington is totally due to its location and not the fucking people in Congress.

GOP Senate Candidate Wants To Move U.S. Capitol To Nebraska



Nebraska Senate candidate Ben Sasse has a proposal: move the Capitol from Washington D.C. to Nebraska.

"That’s it, the way to cure the incredible ineffectiveness and dysfunction of both parties in Washington — we move the Capitol to Nebraska where they can experience family, conservative values, living within a budget, and pulling together, not pulling apart," Sasse said in a new campaign ad.

Sasse doesn't expect this to actually happen, according to The Washington Times, but he does think it's a useful "thought experiment" to compare whether the state of politics is what America's founders intended.

"I think that they, Nebraska work-a-day folks, think that we're on the precipice of national decline and they don't think Washington gets it at all," Sasse said according to the Times.

Sasse originally threw out the idea in a 30-second ad that aired over the weekend. That ad was meant to draw attention to a longer, biographical clip that his campaign produced. In that video, Sasse also discusses his opposition to Obamacare and argues that the country is becoming a "socialist mess like Europe."

"Look, Obamacare is arguably the worst law in our history. But it's been four years since it's been passed and Republicans still haven't offered an alternative. Of course we need to repeal it but we also need to tell people what we'll do next. We need to show Americans that we're the party of conservative solutions. That's the only way win."

Jennifer-Lawrence-ok-thumbs-up.gif


Worst law in US history... Another one who needs to go back and read their history book.
 
Very interesting Schweitzer interview with Dave Weigel
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...ntana_governor_is_the_most_likely.single.html

DW: Where do you think he actually ranks in the last 50–100 years of Democratic presidents?

BS: In part what a president is able to do is elevate, through rhetoric, issues that need to be elevated. I’d give him an A in that area. His ability to communicate, to deliver the message about the values that set us aside as Americans, is very good. I just don’t think his administration has been very good at doing things, about organizing things. It’s not just about the rollout of the Affordable Care Act. As governor I had four years to work with the Bush administration and four years to work with the Obama administration, and they’re just not good at getting things done.

Couldn't agree more. Seems clear he's going full anti-Washington, and it'll be interesting to see how Hillary reacts. If she expects a coronation again, she could easily be upset again.
 

K-19

Banned
I think there is a pretty big difference between "We don't want you since you are going to burn in hell" and "Being gay is a sin, but come on in and worship, your sins are for God to decide"

One is exclusive and the other is inclusive

For disclosure I am not a belieber. I have been educated in a conservative kind of "protestant" christian religion, whatever. When you read letters from St Paul to the first churches there is also this idea of preserving the "purity" of the group from sins and etc. How does he deal with it? To what extent can gay people be allowed to recieve communion from the churches? Maybe that off-topic, but the "modernization" of religions and its new interpretation of its basics texts is a technical issue that's really neglected theorically nowadays.
 
Very interesting Schweitzer interview with Dave Weigel
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...ntana_governor_is_the_most_likely.single.html



Couldn't agree more. Seems clear he's going full anti-Washington, and it'll be interesting to see how Hillary reacts. If she expects a coronation again, she could easily be upset again.

The only way he would have a shot of winning against Hillary in the primary would be if he runs to the hard left of her, and looking at his term as governor I really don't see that happening.

I could see Bernie Sanders winning over Hillary more than I could see Schweitzer.
 
Speaking of the Senate, just looking at the vulnerable seats in 2016 makes me kind of want a Hillary candidacy because it would assure a Dem landslide in congressional races as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be easy Dem pickups.

The Dems also have a good shot in Arizona (if McCain retires), Alaska (if Murkowski gets primaried out), Georgia, Indiana, Iowa (seeing Grassley lose would be awesome), Kentucky, Missouri, and North Carolina.

So best case scenario is 12-14 seats, if the Dems hold onto the Senate this year they can get well above the filibuster proof majority in 2016.
 
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