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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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J

JesseEwiak

Member
WayneMorse said:
What the American people want as a whole and what the people of the GOP's House districts want are two completely different things.
Click to expand...

Also, what people think the GOP and Democrats are for are a lot different than the policies of both parties. Most people don't realize how batshit the GOP is.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
WayneMorse said:
What the American people want as a whole and what the people of the GOP's House districts want are two completely different things.
Click to expand...

The republican numbers are high enough that they're is no way their districts are against these things. Even highly republican districts have 40% dems and if you have 72% of republicans that gets you far above 50%
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
AndyD said:
If they can continue to be equally productive with fewer hours, then good on them, they earned that time off. But if collective productivity decreases, then that actually leads to more jobs to meet the total productivity needed.

Isn't that right? The same idea as allowing sick and vacation leave causing an increase in overall employment. The same amount of work is needed to be done, but it is done by more people working fewer hours each, rather than fewer people working more hours each.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. Productivity drops.

Look, think about the small business owner; the one who is is the only employee (or perhaps with a spouse). they own a shop. Now that they can get healthcare and a cheaper price (perhaps their condition caused their premiums to be high), they won't work as hard and long. Maybe they own a shop and will open 1 hour later. Or whatever. This won't be recovered.

Other examples exist. Point is, the economy would produce less. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing. GDP alone doesn't measure the health of its economy/people. Like anything else, there should be a balance.
 
A

Armoured Priest

Member
I don't know...productivity increases have been outpacing wage increases for years. I don't see a problem with dialing back general productivity until wages catch up a bit. If that productivity loss is really a big deal, then maybe the compensation will increase a little quicker.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Black Mamba said:
Not necessarily. Productivity drops.

Look, think about the small business owner; the one who is is the only employee (or perhaps with a spouse). they own a shop. Now that they can get healthcare and a cheaper price (perhaps their condition caused their premiums to be high), they won't work as hard and long. Maybe they own a shop and will open 1 hour later. Or whatever. This won't be recovered.

Other examples exist. Point is, the economy would produce less. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing. GDP alone doesn't measure the health of its economy/people. Like anything else, there should be a balance.
Click to expand...

Sounds like a flawed example, since whether or not they work as long or hard has no impact on demand.

If joe's plumbing cuts it's hours in half, those customers won't just not buy plumbing, they'll go somewhere else, or shift when they buy so joe is working harder during the hours that he's actually open. So any decrease in productivity that comes from joe not working is offset by joe working harder during his remaining hours, or competition like jake's plumbing picking up the demand.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
Black Mamba said:
Not necessarily. Productivity drops.

Look, think about the small business owner; the one who is is the only employee (or perhaps with a spouse). they own a shop. Now that they can get healthcare and a cheaper price (perhaps their condition caused their premiums to be high), they won't work as hard and long. Maybe they own a shop and will open 1 hour later. Or whatever. This won't be recovered.

Other examples exist. Point is, the economy would produce less. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing. GDP alone doesn't measure the health of its economy/people. Like anything else, there should be a balance.
Click to expand...

There would be demand for another plumber to cover the work.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Manmademan said:
Sounds like a flawed example, since whether or not they work as long or hard has no impact on demand.

If joe's plumbing cuts it's hours in half, those customers won't just not buy plumbing, they'll go somewhere else, or shift when they buy so joe is working harder during the hours that he's actually open. So any decrease in productivity that comes from joe not working is offset by joe working harder during his remaining hours, or competition like jake's plumbing picking up the demand.
Click to expand...


Your example is extreme. I'm not talking about people cutting hours in half, I'm talking by 1 or 2 hours a week...maybe.

Joe Plumber won't start at 8am on Saturday anymore, but perhaps 9am. That reduces his work by 52 hours that year. Is that going to cause anyone to seek another plumber? Chances are, no. Especially in a business where people usually stick with their guy and wait a day or two for him to come around.

There are numerous fields where people can shed 1 hour a day and not lose any business overall, but it ends up being more spread out.

Furthermore, Demand drops when people leave the workforce (assuming 100% of the money didn't go to health insurance). So if I worked 2 jobs and now I'm getting heavily subsidized HI and quit one job, I may be opting to have less overall money to spend post HI than before. This drives Demand down, so that reduced economic output too.


The CBO report already took into account all those things you're thinking of and they are a net zero. So for the spouse who is a secretary solely to get access to HI who quits her job, someone else will take it. And for people who quit their second job, someone else will take it.

Of course, sometimes when people quit a job, it never gets filled. But I digress. The point is the ACA may reduce how much someone works by a slight amount. In aggregate, this number is significant but individually it's so small that it won't have an impact in replacing those hours. The economy isn't some well-oiled machine in that way.

edit: and I'd like to point out that you don't want to just assume it's some easily replaced work, ala a plumber. Not everything is so neat and simple. Maybe you are the own cupcake specialty in town? Maybe the only thai restaurant in town? Maybe the only reliable in X field around? Etc.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
APKmetsfan said:
What policy does the GOP have that's popular and the Dems are opposed to? How do they still get elected?
Click to expand...

I sometimes feel it is a coalition of minority single-issue voters that are very passionate about their narrow interests.

A lot of very faithful (literally and figuratively) anti-abortion voters. (This is a pretty big group.)
A lot of massively pro-gun single issue voters.
A lot of "cut my taxes" voters.
A lot of "I hate immigrants" voters.
A lot of theocrats.
Etc.

None of these are positions that really get over 50% nation-wide. However, if you combine enough different groups of minority single-issue voters, you can get more than 50% of the vote.

But it is getting much harder to pull off. So I think they are shrinking into a regional party. The fact that they lost the popular vote in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections should really give them pause.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
McConnell's Job Approval Rating Is Even With Obama's In Kentucky

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-KY) job approval rating is almost the same as President Barack Obama's in Kentucky, a new poll found.

The Herald-Leader/WKYT Bluegross poll released Thursday evening found 32 percent of those surveyed said they approve of McConnell's job performance while 60 percent said they disapproved of the job the top Senate Republican has done. That rating is almost the same as President Barack Obama's approval rating in the state, which is 34 percent and his disapproval is about 60 percent.

What's more, the poll found Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) holds a small 4-point lead over McConnell in the Kentucky Senate race. The poll found Grimes with 46 percent support among Kentucky voters while McConnell has 42 percent support. That finding though is essentially within the poll's plus or minus 3-point margin of error.

The silver lining for McConnell is that he holds a solid double-digit lead in the GOP primary against challenger Matt Bevin. The poll found McConnell with 55 percent support in the Republican primary while Bevin has 29 percent support. That finding had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.

The poll's findings are yet another sign that the GOP primary is fast becoming a lock for McConnell as he looks to face a tight re-election fight against Grimes.

The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA with The Kentucky Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV. The poll surveyed 1,082 Kentucky voters through automated phone calls and cell phone interviews. Four hundred and four registered Republicans were surveyed for the question on the GOP primary.
Click to expand...
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
 
P

pigeon

Banned
speculawyer said:
I sometimes feel it is a coalition of minority single-issue voters that are very passionate about their narrow interests.

A lot of very faithful (literally and figuratively) anti-abortion voters. (This is a pretty big group.)
A lot of massively pro-gun single issue voters.
A lot of "cut my taxes" voters.
A lot of "I hate immigrants" voters.
A lot of theocrats.
Etc.
Click to expand...

The common principle here is sharply limited federal authority over the states. Want to ban abortion? You need to fight the Supreme Court. Want to protect gun rights? Need to prevent federal restrictions. Cut taxes? Persecute immigrants? Prayer in schools? Jim Crow laws? (You didn't put that one, but I'm adding it.) They all involve hacking away at the scope of the rights guaranteed to the people by the federal government. Which should be no surprise, since the new Republican Party was founded in order to damage and prevent, as much as possible, the victory of the civil rights movement.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Robert Costa ‏@costareports 21s
If House Rs move forward next week w/ military COLA debt-limit plan, it almost certainly be paid for, per members who've huddled w/ ldrs...
Click to expand...

So much for stimulus.

Still want to negotiate over debt limit with COLA?

I didn't think so.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Click to expand...
38881-andy-samberg-the-feels-gif-gjmc.gif


Democrats are going to make a net gain in the Senate. Lose SD, pick up GA and KY.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
WayneMorse said:
What's your outlook on Montana now that Baucus has retired and they'll be a fresh Dem incumbent this November?
Click to expand...
Walsh can hold the seat. It'll be a lot harder than say Alaska or Arkansas though, which are already difficult. Lean R is probably a fair rating.

If Bullock is an idiot and appoints a placeholder it won't make any difference though.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
So apparently Bill "never right about anything ever" Kristol has his own regular segment on Morning Joe where he makes PREDICTIONS.

Yeah...
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Oblivion said:
So apparently Bill "never right about anything ever" Kristol has his own regular segment on Morning Joe where he makes PREDICTIONS.

Yeah...
Click to expand...
Oh god. Someone please RECORD ALL of these.

Bill 'dumbshit' Kristol said:
On this issue of the Shia in Iraq, I think there’s been a certain amount of, frankly, a kind of pop sociology in America that, you know, somehow the Shia can’t get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq just want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There’s almost no evidence of that at all. Iraq’s always been very secular.
Click to expand...

RECORD EVERYTHING. The guy is a fountain of wrong.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Any predictions on January's job numbers? After last month's crazy numbers, I am either expecting downward trend to continue, or massive corrections to previous data. Either way, UE rate is going up.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Job numbers suck but in confused who unemployment keeps going down.

There is something going on in the labor market

Edit:household survey says employment went up by 600,000 payroll says different.
 
D

Diablos

Member
APKmetsfan said:
Job numbers suck but in confused who unemployment keeps going down.

There is something going on in the labor market

Edit:household survey says employment went up by 600,000 payroll says different.
Click to expand...
Yeah man, who knows.

A lot of people got boned and are continuing to get boned because emergency UE wasn't renewed. That has to be making a profound impact. Remember, this is the USA, the land of opportunity for all
except those who have been out of work for too long, we'll have to fudge the numbers a bit because they might as well be dead for the purposes of determining UE percentage because, geez, those dirty poors are making our stats look bad.

Is this the result of playing politics with the UE rate? I.e. the way we cheer on/boo (depending on what side of the fence you are on) UE percentage during election cycles? It's wrong. That is a 'percentage' that speaks to the very heart of the working class and their struggle to not only find a job but keep one that is sustainable for them. Of all the things that speak to the perverse nature of how we sensationalize and overreact to everything poltiical (and otherwise) today, I feel like this is one of the worst offenders. Imagine being laid off and you hear people on tv/radio/Internet all day making you the centerpiece of their talking point for good or ill. It is pretty fucking awful.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
APKmetsfan said:
Job numbers suck but in confused who unemployment keeps going down.

There is something going on in the labor market

Edit:household survey says employment went up by 600,000 payroll says different.
Click to expand...

Meh, I expect the numbers to get better when the weather improves.

And maybe the labor market is shrinking because baby boomers are leaving the workforce?
 
D

Diablos

Member
WayneMorse said:
Meh, I expect the numbers to get better when the weather improves.

And maybe the labor market is shrinking because baby boomers are leaving the workforce?
Click to expand...

...and because we are well into the 'new normal' now and our reality = an acknowledgement that the job market as it was is never coming back. America is never going to be the same. The meltdown confirmed it. The economy will continue to improve, yes. But essentially as soon as companies can figure out ways to invest in better tech/software/policies (for them, not you) and phase out more employees they will. Outsourcing and tech alone are the two big elephants in the room people don't want to come to terms with, because it is a lot easier to blame Obamacare or people being 'lazy'. It is ignorant and bad for our society. Outside of this everyone should be trying to slay the dinosaur that is companies beating their chests over being "right to work" and firing you for anything they want, but people are too dumb or ignorant to care. Unions. They need to come back in a big way. I cannot believe in light of all the injustice the typical everyday employee faces that there is not some national movement to really stick it to these fascist pigs.

I was born in '83, and I know already that my generation will never have the same kind of opportunities baby boomers did. I think that is part of the reason why boomers get so much hatred from younger people, not that it is always justified.
 
A

AndyD

aka andydumi
Black Mamba said:
Your example is extreme. I'm not talking about people cutting hours in half, I'm talking by 1 or 2 hours a week...maybe.

Joe Plumber won't start at 8am on Saturday anymore, but perhaps 9am. That reduces his work by 52 hours that year. Is that going to cause anyone to seek another plumber? Chances are, no. Especially in a business where people usually stick with their guy and wait a day or two for him to come around.

There are numerous fields where people can shed 1 hour a day and not lose any business overall, but it ends up being more spread out.

Furthermore, Demand drops when people leave the workforce (assuming 100% of the money didn't go to health insurance). So if I worked 2 jobs and now I'm getting heavily subsidized HI and quit one job, I may be opting to have less overall money to spend post HI than before. This drives Demand down, so that reduced economic output too.


The CBO report already took into account all those things you're thinking of and they are a net zero. So for the spouse who is a secretary solely to get access to HI who quits her job, someone else will take it. And for people who quit their second job, someone else will take it.

Of course, sometimes when people quit a job, it never gets filled. But I digress. The point is the ACA may reduce how much someone works by a slight amount. In aggregate, this number is significant but individually it's so small that it won't have an impact in replacing those hours. The economy isn't some well-oiled machine in that way.

edit: and I'd like to point out that you don't want to just assume it's some easily replaced work, ala a plumber. Not everything is so neat and simple. Maybe you are the own cupcake specialty in town? Maybe the only thai restaurant in town? Maybe the only reliable in X field around? Etc.
Click to expand...

But your examples are again so extreme that in aggregate they are nearly meaningless.

How many cupcake specialty stores do you think there are in the US in small enough towns that they are the exclusive source for cupcakes? And as others said, your theory only holds for non critical things, like cupcakes, so customers would simply order during the open hours which are now slightly shorter.

For critical service jobs like plumbers, the work is still there, and since he gets paid per jobs completed and not per hours worked, if he increases his productivity he makes the same amount of money and produces the same amount of work. And if he decides to work less, someone else will pick up the slack, an electrician might learn some plumbing and do a bit of it. There won't necessarily be a second exclusive plumber in the tiny town, but someone will step up and fix critical toilets.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
Watch turtleface take one for the team and resign at the last second.

Kidding.

This is pretty awesome news. Still, I hope Grimes can pull away with an even bigger lead.
Click to expand...
Funnily enough, a couple days ago when PPP released their poll (McConnell up by 1) McConnell's team slammed it and said to wait for this poll. Oops!
 
K

KingGondo

Banned
So Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin proposed a .25% income tax cut in her State of the State Address.

It will starve the state of $136 million per year even though state employees haven't had a pay raise since 2008, education funding has declined by over 20% since 2008 (the most in the nation), and the state is facing tens of millions less in revenue than last year because of a previous tax cut. Keep in mind, we have one of the best economies and lowest unemployment rates in the nation because of the energy industry.

What wonderful tax benefits will Oklahomans see because of this?

Adjusted Gross Income of $0 to $15,999: $0 back.
AGI of $16,000 to $33,999: $1 to $19 back.
AGI of $34,000 to $59,999: $22 to $59 back.
AGI of $60,000 to $99,999: $70 to $108 back.
AGI of $100,000 to $999,999: $160 to $718 back.
AGI of $1 million or more: $1,377 back.

It really sickens me that our state is run by people who would propose something like this.

The really tragic part is that we have a strong economy and tax base, so this is exactly the time to reinvest in education and build our workforce to attract new businesses for the future (since the natural gas boom won't last forever)... but we're sacrificing all our potential so our wealthy can make a couple extra Land Rover payments.

:(
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
KingGondo said:
So Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin proposed a .25% income tax cut in her State of the State Address.

It will starve the state of $136 million per year even though state employees haven't had a pay raise since 2008, education funding has declined by over 20% since 2008 (the most in the nation), and the state is facing tens of millions less in revenue than last year because of a previous tax cut. Keep in mind, we have one of the best economies and lowest unemployment rates in the nation because of the energy industry.

What wonderful tax benefits will Oklahomans see because of this?

Adjusted Gross Income of $0 to $15,999: $0 back.
AGI of $16,000 to $33,999: $1 to $19 back.
AGI of $34,000 to $59,999: $22 to $59 back.
AGI of $60,000 to $99,999: $70 to $108 back.
AGI of $100,000 to $999,999: $160 to $718 back.
AGI of $1 million or more: $1,377 back.

It really sickens me that our state is run by people who would propose something like this.

The really tragic part is that we have a strong economy and tax base, so this is exactly the time to reinvest in education and build our workforce to attract new businesses for the future (since the natural gas boom won't last forever)... but we're sacrificing all our potential so our wealthy can make a couple extra Land Rover payments.

:(
Click to expand...

Oklahoma is super, super, super red... Gotta keep the base ignorant by giving them something they think benefits them (Which it doesn't), and keep cutting education because it's just not that important.
 
G

Giant Panda

Member
I suspect the unemployment rate went down partially at least due to the unemployment benefits expiring. There is probably a number of people who were only actively looking for a job to meet the benefits requirement.
 
K

KingGondo

Banned
Wilsongt said:
Oklahoma is super, super, super red... Gotta keep the base ignorant by giving them something they think benefits them (Which it doesn't), and keep cutting education because it's just not that important.
Click to expand...
It's intensely depressing. We have so much potential, but I don't know how we can break out of this cycle.

Perhaps the worst part is that to make up these deficits, municipalities will have no choice but to increase regressive sales and property taxes.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Giant Panda said:
I suspect the unemployment rate went down partially at least due to the unemployment benefits expiring. There is probably a number of people who were only actively looking for a job to meet the benefits requirement.
Click to expand...

Labor force went UP more people are looking/have a job than last month
 
G

gcubed

Member
PhoenixDark said:
The participation rate actually went up a bit too.
Click to expand...

And under employment went down. Percentage of working age with a job went up (highest in 18 months). Everything improved in the UE report.

There was little improvement in the jobs report, which leads me to believe that there will be some major revisions
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Meanwhile Rand Paul continues being a whiny bitch and demanding Democrats return donations from the Clintons.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/rand_paul_dems_should_return_bill_clinton_donations

Yeah, that's a great way to appeal to moderates and centrists, attacking the most popular president in the last fifty years.
Click to expand...

I really want to know whether this is something that the GOP has been focus group testing, considering about three republicans have brought up Lewinsky this month to combat the "war on women" thing. I can't possibly imagine anyone gives a shit about that, outside of republicans.

That's not to say Bill isn't a pos but come on.
 
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