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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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B

Black Mamba

Member
New Pew Poll finding that Most people believe Republicans Favor the rich (duh) and Democrats are mixed between favoring poor and middle class.

Everyone agrees, gov't doesn't do enough for middle class.

Half of people feel their income is falling behind the cost of living, but this is an improvement over the past 2 years (so a good trend). Middle class also feels a bit better right now. Gas prices probably plays a large role, here.

Interesting stuff: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016...rnment-doesnt-do-enough-to-help-middle-class/
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
CNN / WMUR just released a new NH poll for the Republican primary post Iowa:

Trump: 29%
Rubio: 18%
Cruz: 13%
Kasich 12%
Bush: 10%

Trump would have to have the worst ground game in history to not win NH.

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/GOPPrimary_20416.pdf
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uh, not really. Trump is trending down. There's still quite a few days to go. All it needs is for the trend to continue through the weekend and then ground game can also not matter.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Black Mamba said:
uh, not really. Trump is trending down. There's still quite a few days to go. All it needs is for the trend to continue through the weekend and then ground game can also not matter.
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At least in the CNN poll Trump staid level after Iowa. For Rubio to win he would need something to keep pushing within 5% points or so and then maybe the organizational advantage could be enough. That's a lot to do in five days.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Christie is finished after NH imo. I could see Kasich trying his hardest to survive until the March primaries, since Ohio's primary is that month.

If NH's primary was on the 16th instead of the 9th I'd be confident saying Trump would lose it. But he's (allegedly) so far ahead that I don't see him falling far enough to lose by the 9th.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
At least in the CNN poll Trump staid level after Iowa. For Rubio to win he would need something to keep pushing within 5% points or so and then maybe the organizational advantage could be enough. That's a lot to do in five days.
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Or the polling could be off by a bit.

edit: Also, all Rubio has to do is consolidate the Jeb!/Christie/Kasich votes and have undecideds break his way. That's it.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
I also think this is very true:

@Taniel
Reminder: In 08, snap post-IA polls showed Clinton collapse, created HIGH expectations for Obama. Clinton squeaker then covered as triumph.
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@Taniel
NH may turn. But mere fact of closing gap in immediate post-IA polls could distort expectations, & make a Trump win more impactful.
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I think that it's possible Trump will collapse, but if he wins, it'll be, for lack of a better term, yuuuuuuge.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Senate Democrats are pi**ed
The backlash to Sanders’ Wednesday comments and his “establishment” jabs coincides with more targeted criticisms of the Vermont independent. Prominent immigration activist Astrid Silva endorsed Clinton over Sanders this week, prompting a Sanders spokeswoman to dismiss the endorsement as little other than a “press hit.”
That raised the eyebrows of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who has remained neutral in the primary but felt compelled to respond.
“Nobody needs to attack her, this little girl that came across the river in a boat with a doll and rosary beads. I’m not going to let anybody mess with her, no matter who it is. Very persona
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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...sanders-senate-democrats-218751#ixzz3zF22wwT6
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
adam387 said:
Going to be skipping the debate tonight. I either have food poisoning or I'm literally dying. I don't know which.
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Someone will probably PM you if Trump says: "You know, I don't know Marco very well-he's a nice guy, very flamboyant-but Jeb does and this guy from Jeb's staff, he tells me that Marco is gay. I mean, what a nasty campaign Jeb Bush is running!"
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Someone will probably PM you if Trump says: "You know, I don't know Marco very well-he's a nice guy, very flamboyant-but Jeb does and this guy from Jeb's staff, he tells me that Marco is gay. I mean, what a nasty campaign Jeb Bush is running!"
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That would be very impressive if Trump managed to say that at tonight's debate.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Trump needs to say something crazy right now and ride the publicity. Really disappointed that he hasn't done that so far. Call Jeb a slut. Something. Time's running out.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Black Mamba said:
020416krugman2-blog480.png


Rubio is truly the rich man's candidate. Puts Romney to shame,
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If this wasn't so awful I would laugh.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Article I found interesting about Bernie's advantage being from Vermont is overstated:
Yes, it’s likely that Sanders’ status as a Vermonter offers him some boost in New Hampshire. But when it comes to New Hampshire, not all border states are created equal. While Vermont and Maine share geographic boundaries with the Granite State, the border state advantage in New Hampshire is really more of a Massachusetts advantage.
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When Kennedy first entered the race in late 1979, a New Hampshire poll put him 40 points ahead of Jimmy Carter, the incumbent president he was challenging. In early 1987, Dukakis was a little-known Massachusetts governor stepping onto the national stage for the first time. But already he was tied in New Hampshire at 32 percent with Gary Hart, who at the time was the overwhelming national front-runner. (Hart had first gained fame by winning the New Hampshire primary in 1984.) Tsongas, a one-term Massachusetts senator with no national profile, nonetheless started with a five-point lead over his nearest New Hampshire competitor in 1991, while Kerry trailed only former Vice President Al Gore in the earliest days of the 2004 cycle. (Gore soon announced he wouldn’t run.) And while Romney ran third in the earliest 2008 polling in the state, he was facing two opponents with national stature, John McCain (the runaway winner of the 2000 New Hampshire primary) and Rudy Giuliani. Even then, Romney still notched 17 percent in the first Granite State poll after his announcement.

In other words, all of these Massachusetts candidates started out with significant support in New Hampshire, before even starting to campaign. But this is not the story with Sanders, who trailed Clinton by 47 points – 62 to 15 percent – in a poll released just after he announced his plans to run. It also wasn’t the case with Howard Dean, another Vermont candidate, who scored just six percent in early New Hampshire polling during the 2004 campaign. (Dean notched that six percent in the same poll that gave Kerry 28 percent.) Both of them only began to move up after they started campaigning, and while Dean’s ascent was rapid, it could just as easily be attributed to his stats as the race’s lone anti-Iraq war voice as his next-door neighbor status.
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P

PBY

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Someone will probably PM you if Trump says: "You know, I don't know Marco very well-he's a nice guy, very flamboyant-but Jeb does and this guy from Jeb's staff, he tells me that Marco is gay. I mean, what a nasty campaign Jeb Bush is running!"
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"I love the gays. I love Marco, it'd be great if he were gay - weird that he opposes gay marriage, but great nonetheless. Yuge penis."
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
Ophelion said:
They are, otherwise, very rational and reasonable human beings, but this to me seems like an erratic mob mentality. At a fundamental level, it doesn't seem that different to me to Tea Partiers boiling over with hatred for Muslims. The target's different and perhaps a shade more deserving, but no less vague and misguided and I don't think it will result in something appreciably different. I certainly don't think either group understands shit about their chosen scapegoats.
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There's too much misinformation in your post, but I would strongly urge you to become more informed. There were men and women who put their livelihoods in finance on the line for strangers like you and apparently chose wrong in retrospect for that public service. And that's because despite what they know a lot of people are going to walk away from an epidemic of fraud. Even with our best efforts to embarrass ourselves as regulators, there were still people in the private sector that knew enough for a ton of people to get nailed with an unthinkable amount of felonies. The least you could do before telling your friends and Bernie supporters they don't know shit is to at bare minimum bring a knowledgeable mind to the table.

That's my advice to you since you've likely been impacted by the multi-trillion $ losses, forfeited GDP estimated in the trillions, and you will share a likely future of slow growth and economic stagnation for years to come alongside the rest of us. A group of individuals looted their institutions, it impacted your life, and they gained far more from the situation than you did. You lost out and the folks involved are dabbing on you like Cam Newton while consistently running up the score. Simple as that.
 
P

PBY

Banned
TheLaughingStock said:
There's too much misinformation in your post, but I would strongly urge you to become more informed. There were men and women who put their livelihoods in finance on the line for strangers like you and apparently chose wrong in retrospect for that public service. And that's because despite what they know a lot of people are going to walk away from an epidemic of fraud. Even with our best efforts to embarrass ourselves as regulators, there were still people in the private sector that knew enough for a ton of people to get nailed with an unthinkable amount of felonies. The least you could do before telling your friends and Bernie supporters they don't know shit is to at bare minimum bring a knowledgeable mind to the table.

That's my advice to you since you've likely been impacted by the multi-trillion $ losses, forfeited GDP estimated in the trillions, and you will share a likely future of slow growth and economic stagnation for years to come alongside the rest of us. A group of individuals looted their institutions, it impacted your life, and they gained far more from the situation than you did. You lost out and the folks involved are dabbing on you like Cam Newton while consistently running up the score. Simple as that.
Click to expand...

Your post and his post can both be right.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Sanders has managed to attract an overwhelmingly white voter base that, by all measures, appears excited and convinced that Sanders's prescription of inequality busting, billionaire -humbling policy will fix all that is wrong with America. The thing is, Sanders's message hasn't quite caught the same kind of fire with non-white Democratic leaning voters -- voters that form a major and definitive share of the party's coalition that will become much more important after the New Hampshire primary.

Those who "Feel the Bern" invariably insist that those who don't are either dumb, don't understand their own political needs or what and who will truly help them. To some degree, that's normal when people get really passionate about a candidate or a campaign. But given the professed progressive leanings of those in the Sanders camp and what's widely known about the group's near-racial homogeneity, it's a response that seems like a rather large and telling contradiction. It is a response that seems devoid of any recognition that patronizing language, paternalistic "guidance" and recriminations are, at the very least, the active ingredients in modern and sometimes subtle forms of bigotry. Besides that, condescension is not often convincing.

In fact, that whole set of "they will eventually get it" arguments that Sanders supporters and even the Sanders campaign have readily made about voters of color is, truly, part of the Sanders campaign's problem.

Yes, Sanders fans, that reality did not matter much at all in very-white Iowa. And the polls out of even whiter New Hampshire suggest the same. But the rest of America does not look like Iowa or New Hampshire and has not for some time.
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==



Sanders declared himself a Democratic candidate for the White House in April. In July, Sanders responded to a mostly black group of Black Lives Matter protesters at the liberal Netroots Nation even with enough frustration that he stopped speaking and left the stage. He took a similar tack with like-minded protesters at other events that followed. And when Sanders could be pinned down with questions about civil rights concerns such as the specter of police mistreatment or death at the hands of a cop, he seemed to respond most often with a great deal of umbrage and barely restrained anger about having been interrupted or put off his usual stump speech about economic inequality.

Sometimes, Sanders responded with mentions of black youth unemployment that were rather needlessly overstated; the simple truth is really quite bad, after all. And most often of all, there was a reminder that he participated in the 1963 March on Washington.

Sanders may not have meant it this way, but the collection of responses seemed to say 'Look, I've done my part and moved on from civil rights matters. I'm trying to tell you people what you need right now.' A less charitable read would be: 'Be quiet and listen.' Those aren't his exact words, of course, but they're really what every Sanders speech, debate performance and public appearance seems to reiterate.
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More recently, when Sanders said openly that any reparations for black Americans are politically unfeasible and essentially not something that he or other serious and effective Democrats can embrace, Sanders pretty much said the same. There are many other items on Sanders's policy wish list -- including a massive increase in taxes on the wealthy -- which are also quite likely dead-on-arrival on Capitol Hill. But, that hasn't stopped the self-styled Sanders revolution from including them in the Sander's platform.
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It is as if the campaign believes that voters -- particularly voters of color -- are supposed to reorder their priorities to align with Sanders'. They are to simply suspend their own knowledge of their own experiences with the real and continued meaning of race, the persistence of pervasive racial and ethnic stereotypes, and the policy that this combination has spawned.

All of that, quite frankly, is far easier to do when a voter is white.

Sanders fans will no doubt point out that Sanders has a racial justice plan posted on his website. They will say that it speaks to economic inequality but also the ways in which environmental toxins and degradation, disparities in the criminal justice system and voter suppression activities continue to unfairly shape and limit the lives of voters of color. And even those who do not count themselves among Sanders's devoted fans will have to admit that in recent months, it's to the issues of police mistreatment and mass-incarceration that Sanders is most likely to turn if confronted with direct questions about what his administration might do about racial inequality.

That's precisely what Sanders did -- rather awkwardly -- during a CNN town forum Wednesday night.
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Again, we anticipate that Sanders's often -- shall we say -- passionate supports will insist that the poll predates Iowa and the moment that it and a probable Sanders victory in New Hampshire will create. But that is an idea in which one can only place full faith if race and everything that comes with it are merely concepts, not personal experiences -- or, in the Castro tradition, experiences that can simply be wiped out of conversation and reality.

And it is an idea that fundamentally ignores or downplays the sheer number of black and Latino, Democratic-leaning voters who make the states where subsequent primaries are set to happen their homes.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...res-why/?postshare=9981454619320936&tid=ss_tw
 
E

East Lake

Member
NeoXChaos said:
==












https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...res-why/?postshare=9981454619320936&tid=ss_tw
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If anyone doubts that the mainstream media fails to tell the truth about our political system (and its true winners and losers), the spectacle of large majorities of black folks supporting Hillary Clinton in the primary races ought to be proof enough. I can't believe Hillary would be coasting into the primaries with her current margin of black support if most people knew how much damage the Clintons have done - the millions of families that were destroyed the last time they were in the White House thanks to their boastful embrace of the mass incarceration machine and their total capitulation to the right-wing narrative on race, crime, welfare and taxes. There's so much more to say on this topic and it's a shame that more people aren't saying it. I think it's time we have that conversation.
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https://www.facebook.com/Michelle-Alexander-168304409924191/
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
Let's just focus on the hilarity of the republican side given that hillary is probably gonna win and yes bernie's supporters are dumb and young and yes humans suck. Trump losing iowa really opened things up.
 
K

Kyosaiga

Banned
I wonder if Hillary is gonna take the kids gloves off.

Sanders has been cuddled this entire election, yet people seem to think this is a repeat of 2008.
 
E

East Lake

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Bernie voted yes on the crime bill and Bernie's remarks about why he didn't love the crime bill had a total of zero mentions of race. He talked only about class, not race with regards to the bill.
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That doesn't really exculpate the Clintons. I provided a counterpoint to the narrative that Hillary has earned her black support that can't be dismissed as some Berniebro source.
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
East Lake said:
That doesn't really exculpate the Clintons. I provided a counterpoint to the narrative that Hillary has earned her black support that can't be dismissed as some Berniebro source.
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Again, I hate to bring this up, but the black community largely SUPPORTED THE CRIME BILL! THEIR COMMUNITIES WERE GETTING DESTROYED BY CRIME AND CRACK!
 
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