@Taniel
30% increase in ballot requests among Ds, 10% drop among Rsjust an early blip? function of GOP underorganization?
Alright, I'm gonna push back a bit here. Obviously the monikers we attach to political figures are tongue-in-cheek (Queen, Daddy, etc), but the Trash Nate and GodNate stuff I find weird and a little "console war-esque".
It is without a doubt that Nate screwed up with Trump by not deferring to the data. It is without a doubt that the model he's created for 2016 is more reactive than others, even by his own admission. He's explained himself a few times that he chose a very reactive model due to what he believes is a more volatile election (perhaps overcompensating for the Trump effect he missed previously) and due to the high number of undecideds. We can definitely debate the inclusion of certain polls and their various weights assigned, but Nate has been very open about his firm belief in including just about every poll (probably due to his strong 3rd party-type sympathies).
I'm by no means a statistical expert. Personally, I just received my Masters in Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and I'm very familiar with STATA, the software Nate does most of his work on. Now, retrospective infection surveillance is very different from prospective prediction modeling, so I'm typically really hesitant to critique a field I'm unfamiliar with. I love that PoliGAF really digs into the crosstabs and such. I encourage more people to learn more about statistics, without a doubt, but I also ask that we have a little bit of patience. Science is often about scrutiny, not dismissal, until results are seen. 538 will not decide the election, so it's all just methodology debates.
The fights between Silver, Cohn, Wang, etc have been fascinating this cycle. We are currently watching really smart people debate over a field that is still essentially brand new about how to approach these types of models. Silver has been fairly open about what he's doing and we'll see on Nov 8th how close he really is. Rewarding and giving voice to those other individuals has been really cool, this cycle. But picking teams just feels silly to me (outside of tongue-in-cheek stuff).
Again, I'm not saying we can't critique him. His choices this cycle are definitely suspect, and Nate has a big, big smug contrarian streak in him. I, personally, just refuse to dismiss him as "Trash Nate" like he's Sony or Nintendo or something just because he's trying something a little more sketchy than his peers or because his numbers are less reassuring. At least until we see more direct evidence that he's incorrect.
Well true, but both results are within the moe. The closer you are, the higher chances of DEADHEAT. I just wish it was a wider lead h2h. However gary johnson might be helping her out so that's good news.There's literally no movement from there last poll, so yes, it is exactly what you'd call stable.
Well true, but both results are within the moe. The closer you are, the higher chances of DEADHEAT. I just wish it was a wider lead h2h. However gary johnson might be helping her out so that's good news.
Josh KraushaarVerified account
‏@HotlineJosh Josh Kraushaar Retweeted MULawPoll
Whoa. Wisconsin looking tight as a tick. Add it to PA/NH as possible winning state for Trump
daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 12m12 minutes ago
daveweigel Retweeted Josh Kraushaar
Alternatively: After Clintons worst weeks, Trump still running behind Romney across the midwest.
Didn't Wisconsin and Michigan poll a lot closer than they ended up being in 2012?
This continues to be HUGE for Democrats:
My main problem with what 538 is doing this year is that they are running 3 models. I think that doing so is a pretty gross gesture towards punditry. It creates volatility and uncertainty even within 538 itself. It gives tons of cover for all sorts of different stories that a pundit might want to write and generally muddies the waters when the whole point of 538 is to cut through noise to create clarity.
I really don't care how accurate he ens up being on the 8th, that doesn't really effect my critique of him this cycle. He built all 3 models to basically spit out the same number on the 8th, so what's the point?
NH holds.
Monmouth University Poll
Clinton 47
Trump 38
Where is this? Summed everywhere or just one particular state.
I visited Ellis Island for the first time yesterday, and what struck me the most was the museum's section on the political environment during the early 1900s. Reading about the immigration opponents and their propaganda sounded EERILY like what we're witnessing now from Trump and the R party...100 years later.
Just NC.Where is this? Summed everywhere or just one particular state.
.daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 1m1 minute ago
In 2012, liberals could tell themselves well, Nate Silver says were still good. Then came umpteen Trump has no shot at the nom pieces.
daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 2m2 minutes ago
daveweigel Retweeted Mediaite
IMHO, 538s original under-playing of Trumps primary chances is a factor in liberal panic.
One last thing about Silver. My favorite thing about him is his weird obsession with betting markets. He really values them. I know it probably comes from his poker history, but I just find it funny that he always refers to them like they're some polling aggregate. Maybe I'm misinformed and they're more predictive than I realize.
I just find it funny.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rfk-trump-2016-democratic-party-speechwriter-214270
Former RFK speechwriter for Trump
Just NC.
Which is why Burr's coasting strategy is so dumb. People are voting now.
I think he's just too used to NC being solid red. That he was essentially off the hook in 2010 doesn't help.
One last thing about Silver. My favorite thing about him is his weird obsession with betting markets. He really values them. I know it probably comes from his poker history, but I just find it funny that he always refers to them like they're some polling aggregate. Maybe I'm misinformed and they're more predictive than I realize.
I just find it funny.
I totally think the 3 model situation is a fair critique. The Nowcast he's essentially been open is for those who want reactionary, non-predictive clicks. The Polls-Only vs Polls-Plus feels like him trying to give concession to the polls only outlets out there, as well as hedge his bets on the belief that with Trump, nothing traditional matters anymore.
I get his reasoning, but I definitely agree with your critique. Especially the Nowcast.
How would Trump have handled the Cuban Missile crisis?
We'd be living in the world of Fallout, except set 10 years later.
The Clinton campaign will have a good idea of how they'll do in North Carolina before the early voting period ends. Still, they have loads of offices in the state, and remember how well they did with getting people to vote absentee in the Nebraska and Wyoming caucuses. If they can get enough of a lead in absentee and early voting, it should be a done deal.
There also seems to be a lot of young voters who requested ballots, which is crazy. They haven't returned them yet, which makes sense because older voters usually mail in their ballots much sooner. Should expect the Dem and Indie # of accepted ballots to increase as time goes on.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs3-YPyVYAAgFXX.jpg[IMG]
Which is whiter?[/QUOTE]
"I'm with Bucky" :lol
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.
Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.
Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
These are the late night ratings. And Douthat goes after bee? for a show that .01% of the country is watching 1 night a week
Could be students who go to school out of state who want to vote in their home state. HB2 and Trump could have incentivized them.The young people requesting ballots is pretty insane.
Eh, I kind of agree, but if we devalue the importance of the Nov 8th results, then what are we even arguing about with 538 currently? What even is the point of these forecasts other than fun ways to look at poll trendlines? For that we could just look at the RCP poll aggregate and call it a day. Silver and Wang became famous for a reason and that wasn't just calling Obama or McCain the winner.
Their models are meant to lead to Nov 8th and give us more than just who wins, but how close they end up being to the predictor, in addition to the individual state margins and state congressional races. I'd argue that if those margins are closer than the other models, then that does add more veracity to the methodology used by the "winner".
I'm trying it out here in OK for the first time ever. I'm not even sure when it starts, lol. Though the OK voter website did update the other day saying I have a ballot coming eventually.I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.
Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
"I'm with Bucky" :lol
My husband and his family get their ballots in the mail about three weeks before election day (California) with a booklet that has descriptions of the candidates and the ballot propositions (generally submitted by the campaigns themselves). They usually vote and send them in asap.I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.
Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rfk-trump-2016-democratic-party-speechwriter-214270
Former RFK speechwriter for Trump
Flawed as he may be, Trump is telling more of the truth than politician of our day. Most important, he offers a path away from constant war, a path of businesslike accommodation with all reasonable people and nations, concentrating our forces and efforts against the true enemies of civilization. Thus, to dwell on his faults and errors is to evade the great questions of war and peace, life and death for our people and our country. You and I will have to compensate for his deficits of civility, in return for peace, we may hope as Lincoln hoped, among ourselves and with all nations.
Truly, America first, last and always; for ourselves and for our posterity. These are the reasons why I will vote for Donald Trump for president.
Could be students who go to school out of state who want to vote in their home state. HB2 and Trump could have incentivized them.
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.
Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.
Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
Could be students who go to school out of state who want to vote in their home state. HB2 and Trump could have incentivized them.
That would be a 6 point swing towards the Dems in the margin, as Romney won by 41%.
The CMC is actually a great example of diplomacy and the strategic use of power. The tit-for-tat of Khrushchev backing down but Kennedy removing the missiles in Turkey about six months later illustrates this well.
Trump, on the other hand, would have had us bombing and invading Cuba within hours of the initial intelligence, I think it is safe to say.