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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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E

eBay Huckster

Member
BlastProcessing said:
@brandonenglish
Trump's "African-American" town hall on Hannity

Cs5Bp8fWgAAhzPG.jpg
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that's the most white people i've ever seen in one room in cleveland heights
 
T

thebloo

Member
From the same twitter as above:

Brandon English ‏@brandonenglish 16m16 minutes ago New Spirit Revival Center

Got handed this... ����ALERT: MUSLIMS VOTE TOO����

Cs5OpqgUIAA4TVf.jpg:small
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Emarv said:
Alright, I'm gonna push back a bit here. Obviously the monikers we attach to political figures are tongue-in-cheek (Queen, Daddy, etc), but the Trash Nate and GodNate stuff I find weird and a little "console war-esque".

It is without a doubt that Nate screwed up with Trump by not deferring to the data. It is without a doubt that the model he's created for 2016 is more reactive than others, even by his own admission. He's explained himself a few times that he chose a very reactive model due to what he believes is a more volatile election (perhaps overcompensating for the Trump effect he missed previously) and due to the high number of undecideds. We can definitely debate the inclusion of certain polls and their various weights assigned, but Nate has been very open about his firm belief in including just about every poll (probably due to his strong 3rd party-type sympathies).

I'm by no means a statistical expert. Personally, I just received my Masters in Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and I'm very familiar with STATA, the software Nate does most of his work on. Now, retrospective infection surveillance is very different from prospective prediction modeling, so I'm typically really hesitant to critique a field I'm unfamiliar with. I love that PoliGAF really digs into the crosstabs and such. I encourage more people to learn more about statistics, without a doubt, but I also ask that we have a little bit of patience. Science is often about scrutiny, not dismissal, until results are seen. 538 will not decide the election, so it's all just methodology debates.

The fights between Silver, Cohn, Wang, etc have been fascinating this cycle. We are currently watching really smart people debate over a field that is still essentially brand new about how to approach these types of models. Silver has been fairly open about what he's doing and we'll see on Nov 8th how close he really is. Rewarding and giving voice to those other individuals has been really cool, this cycle. But picking teams just feels silly to me (outside of tongue-in-cheek stuff).

Again, I'm not saying we can't critique him. His choices this cycle are definitely suspect, and Nate has a big, big smug contrarian streak in him. I, personally, just refuse to dismiss him as "Trash Nate" like he's Sony or Nintendo or something just because he's trying something a little more sketchy than his peers or because his numbers are less reassuring. At least until we see more direct evidence that he's incorrect.
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My main problem with what 538 is doing this year is that they are running 3 models. I think that doing so is a pretty gross gesture towards punditry. It creates volatility and uncertainty even within 538 itself. It gives tons of cover for all sorts of different stories that a pundit might want to write and generally muddies the waters when the whole point of 538 is to cut through noise to create clarity.

I really don't care how accurate he ens up being on the 8th, that doesn't really effect my critique of him this cycle. He built all 3 models to basically spit out the same number on the 8th, so what's the point?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
whyamihere said:
There's literally no movement from there last poll, so yes, it is exactly what you'd call stable.
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Well true, but both results are within the moe. The closer you are, the higher chances of DEADHEAT. I just wish it was a wider lead h2h. However gary johnson might be helping her out so that's good news.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Josh KraushaarVerified account
‏@HotlineJosh Josh Kraushaar Retweeted MULawPoll
Whoa. Wisconsin looking tight as a tick. Add it to PA/NH as possible winning state for Trump
Click to expand...

The smackdown:

daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 12m12 minutes ago
daveweigel Retweeted Josh Kraushaar
Alternatively: After Clinton’s worst weeks, Trump still running behind Romney across the midwest.
Click to expand...
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
So, ok, I'll dip my toe in the Nate vs Nate vs PoliGaf debate:

I get that there are more undecideds this elections, and the model shows more volatility because of it.

But, then, what's the point of prediction websites? and acting smugly like "everybody doesn't get my models"?

There are also a lot of other reasons why some people feel more assured than others about a Clinton win, be it ground game, fundamentals, the fact she's still leading nationally (by a bit) and three debates outstanding. He shouldn't get pissy about that confidence either, when his own models are seemingly as volatile.
 
E

Emarv

Member
BlastProcessing said:
My main problem with what 538 is doing this year is that they are running 3 models. I think that doing so is a pretty gross gesture towards punditry. It creates volatility and uncertainty even within 538 itself. It gives tons of cover for all sorts of different stories that a pundit might want to write and generally muddies the waters when the whole point of 538 is to cut through noise to create clarity.

I really don't care how accurate he ens up being on the 8th, that doesn't really effect my critique of him this cycle. He built all 3 models to basically spit out the same number on the 8th, so what's the point?
Click to expand...

I totally think the 3 model situation is a fair critique. The Nowcast he's essentially been open is for those who want reactionary, non-predictive clicks. The Polls-Only vs Polls-Plus feels like him trying to give concession to the polls only outlets out there, as well as hedge his bets on the belief that with Trump, nothing traditional matters anymore.

I get his reasoning, but I definitely agree with your critique. Especially the Nowcast.
 
E

Emarv

Member
One last thing about Silver. My favorite thing about him is his weird obsession with betting markets. He really values them. I know it probably comes from his poker history, but I just find it funny that he always refers to them like they're some polling aggregate. Maybe I'm misinformed and they're more predictive than I realize.

I just find it funny.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
ShOcKwAvE said:
I visited Ellis Island for the first time yesterday, and what struck me the most was the museum's section on the political environment during the early 1900s. Reading about the immigration opponents and their propaganda sounded EERILY like what we're witnessing now from Trump and the R party...100 years later.
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Yeah, this election has often put me in mind of this particular piece of local history:

bloody_monday_2_500x430.jpg
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Iolo said:
Where is this? Summed everywhere or just one particular state.
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Just NC.

Which is why Burr's coasting strategy is so dumb. People are voting now.

I think he's just too used to NC being solid red. That he was essentially off the hook in 2010 doesn't help.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 1m1 minute ago
In 2012, liberals could tell themselves “well, Nate Silver says we’re still good.” Then came umpteen “Trump has no shot at the nom” pieces.

daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 2m2 minutes ago
daveweigel Retweeted Mediaite
IMHO, 538’s original under-playing of Trump’s primary chances is a factor in liberal panic.
Click to expand...
.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Emarv said:
One last thing about Silver. My favorite thing about him is his weird obsession with betting markets. He really values them. I know it probably comes from his poker history, but I just find it funny that he always refers to them like they're some polling aggregate. Maybe I'm misinformed and they're more predictive than I realize.

I just find it funny.
Click to expand...

When it comes to betting markets, it's better to look at who they have winning rather than actual chances. When betting markets brag about being "more accurate than polls" it's just referring to how usually the individual that the betting markets favor wins.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Just NC.

Which is why Burr's coasting strategy is so dumb. People are voting now.

I think he's just too used to NC being solid red. That he was essentially off the hook in 2010 doesn't help.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the more voting that happens in North Carolina, the more suspicious I am of Burr's chances. He says he'll start campaigning in October!

Granted, you'll probably need 2.2 million votes to win in NC. But still.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Emarv said:
One last thing about Silver. My favorite thing about him is his weird obsession with betting markets. He really values them. I know it probably comes from his poker history, but I just find it funny that he always refers to them like they're some polling aggregate. Maybe I'm misinformed and they're more predictive than I realize.

I just find it funny.
Click to expand...

This is one area where the Brexit vote comparison actually does hold weight.

The betting markets were completely and utterly wrong about the result - in every single respect. It wasn't close, they were off by a big margin.
 
B

Blader

Member
Emarv said:
I totally think the 3 model situation is a fair critique. The Nowcast he's essentially been open is for those who want reactionary, non-predictive clicks. The Polls-Only vs Polls-Plus feels like him trying to give concession to the polls only outlets out there, as well as hedge his bets on the belief that with Trump, nothing traditional matters anymore.

I get his reasoning, but I definitely agree with your critique. Especially the Nowcast.
Click to expand...

I think I generally like 538 more than most of (Poli)GAF, but the nowcast seems like a huge waste of time and effort on his part. Why produce or spend a second talking a model that will only ever matter on November 8? Just seems pointless. "If the election were held today" will only be true once.
 
H

Holmes

Member
The Clinton campaign will have a good idea of how they'll do in North Carolina before the early voting period ends. Still, they have loads of offices in the state, and remember how well they did with getting people to vote absentee in the Nebraska and Wyoming caucuses. If they can get enough of a lead in absentee and early voting, it should be a done deal.

There also seems to be a lot of young voters who requested ballots, which is crazy. They haven't returned them yet, which makes sense because older voters usually mail in their ballots much sooner. Should expect the Dem and Indie # of accepted ballots to increase as time goes on.
 
G

Geg

Member
Finally updated my voter registration with my new address today so I'll be ready to vote in November.

Too bad I'm in a solid red state
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
How would Trump have handled the Cuban Missile crisis?

We'd be living in the world of Fallout, except set 10 years later.
Click to expand...

The CMC is actually a great example of diplomacy and the strategic use of power. The tit-for-tat of Khrushchev backing down but Kennedy removing the missiles in Turkey about six months later illustrates this well.

Trump, on the other hand, would have had us bombing and invading Cuba within hours of the initial intelligence, I think it is safe to say.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Holmes said:
The Clinton campaign will have a good idea of how they'll do in North Carolina before the early voting period ends. Still, they have loads of offices in the state, and remember how well they did with getting people to vote absentee in the Nebraska and Wyoming caucuses. If they can get enough of a lead in absentee and early voting, it should be a done deal.

There also seems to be a lot of young voters who requested ballots, which is crazy. They haven't returned them yet, which makes sense because older voters usually mail in their ballots much sooner. Should expect the Dem and Indie # of accepted ballots to increase as time goes on.
Click to expand...

The young people requesting ballots is pretty insane.
 
E

Emarv

Member
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.

Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Emarv said:
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.

Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
Click to expand...

New York doesn't have early voting, as far as I know, because we're dumb :/
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
Emarv said:
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.

Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
Click to expand...

I'm sentimental. I recognize the utility of early voting but I like being a part of the ritual of going to the voting booth on election day.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
I'll just be voting on election day, myself. I have a little bit of a walk from my parking lot to work which takes me directly past the county buildings. Super convenient!
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
Emarv said:
Eh, I kind of agree, but if we devalue the importance of the Nov 8th results, then what are we even arguing about with 538 currently? What even is the point of these forecasts other than fun ways to look at poll trendlines? For that we could just look at the RCP poll aggregate and call it a day. Silver and Wang became famous for a reason and that wasn't just calling Obama or McCain the winner.

Their models are meant to lead to Nov 8th and give us more than just who wins, but how close they end up being to the predictor, in addition to the individual state margins and state congressional races. I'd argue that if those margins are closer than the other models, then that does add more veracity to the methodology used by the "winner".
Click to expand...

The point of the forecasts is to give betting odds. Not necessarily for betting, but the idea is that the probabilities mean something. There is a right answer to the question "given all the information available to us, how confident should we be that Clinton will win?" This is interesting and also potentially quite important. But it's just true that the actual election results don't let you go back and figure out what you should have thought in July. That's the point of these forecasts, and it's an important one, but it's also a really hard thing to know if you're doing it right, even in retrospect.

My recollection is that Silver got really prominent because he projected individual states - doing something very similar to what a poll aggregator would do - and had previously done a bunch of math (the forecasting part). People were mostly interested in Silver for the forecasting - that's why people are checking 538 now and not just waiting until right before the election. Lots of people misunderstood what he was doing and basically took him as calling the election for Obama well in advance and proving it with science. IIRC this was basically his take on it in interviews afterwards too.

Also, no, the final prediction of one of these guys being closest to the actual results isn't going to tell us much at all about how good of a job they're doing right now. First, they're probably all going to be really close together in the end. Second, it's two totally different sources of uncertainty. The election day uncertainty is basically just about how to weight different polls, correct for poll bias, etc., as well as just the uncertainty associated with individual polls. But the uncertainty right now is also very much about how the polls will change over time. That's why all the models will tend to converge as the election gets closer - this uncertainty about poll movement is going to go away and they'll be left with just a current poll weighting problem.
 
S

Spiritreaver

Member
Emarv said:
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.

Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
Click to expand...
I'm trying it out here in OK for the first time ever. I'm not even sure when it starts, lol. Though the OK voter website did update the other day saying I have a ballot coming eventually.

EDIT: It's November 3rd.
EDIT2: My absentee ballot is already sent.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Emarv said:
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.

Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
Click to expand...
My husband and his family get their ballots in the mail about three weeks before election day (California) with a booklet that has descriptions of the candidates and the ballot propositions (generally submitted by the campaigns themselves). They usually vote and send them in asap.
 
T

thebloo

Member
NeoXChaos said:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/rfk-trump-2016-democratic-party-speechwriter-214270


Former RFK speechwriter for Trump

Cs5OGOGW8AAQ9cT.jpg
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Flawed as he may be, Trump is telling more of the truth than politician of our day. Most important, he offers a path away from constant war, a path of businesslike accommodation with all reasonable people and nations, concentrating our forces and efforts against the true enemies of civilization. Thus, to dwell on his faults and errors is to evade the great questions of war and peace, life and death for our people and our country. You and I will have to compensate for his deficits of civility, in return for peace, we may hope as Lincoln hoped, among ourselves and with all nations.

Truly, America first, last and always; for ourselves and for our posterity. These are the reasons why I will vote for Donald Trump for president.
Click to expand...

I'm fucking speechless.
 
D

darkstar0155

Member
Emarv said:
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.

Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
Click to expand...

I do mail in/provisional here in the Akron, Ohio area
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Wyoming poll! (DFM Reserach)

POTUS:

Trump: 54 (+35)
Hillary: 19
Johnson: 10
Stein: 2

House:

Ryan Greene (D): 35
Liz Cheney (R): 46

That would be a 6 point swing towards the Dems in the margin, as Romney won by 41%.

Emarv said:
I'm curious how much of PoliGAF does early voting? Texas doesn't start until like 2 weeks before the election, and generally my wife and I enjoy participating in the atmosphere of election day.

Do any of you nice fellas and ladies always vote early? Or is it conditional on your schedules that year?
Click to expand...

I like to vote in person, but this might be my last election doing it.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Holmes said:
Could be students who go to school out of state who want to vote in their home state. HB2 and Trump could have incentivized them.
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Plenty of students in NY/NJ who attend the University of New Jersey-Durham (also known as "Duke") requesting ballots. Solid stuff for Clinton/Ross/Cooper.

That would be a 6 point swing towards the Dems in the margin, as Romney won by 41%.
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Wyoming is the only state where you can say a candidate won by 41, and then have to answer "41 thousand or 41%?"
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Hopfrog said:
The CMC is actually a great example of diplomacy and the strategic use of power. The tit-for-tat of Khrushchev backing down but Kennedy removing the missiles in Turkey about six months later illustrates this well.

Trump, on the other hand, would have had us bombing and invading Cuba within hours of the initial intelligence, I think it is safe to say.
Click to expand...

There was no point to putting missiles in Turkey in the first place and there was no extra danger from nukes being in Cuba instead of nukes being in submarines in the Atlantic.
 
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