User 463088
Banned
Hillary and my mom are the same height and age. Plot twist Hillary is my mom.
The funniest part was Nevada's whole problem was their own damn fault lol
s4p at this point is <1000 of the most extreme of fringe loonies, they're not going to do anything worthwhile
Hillary and my mom are the same height and age. Plot twist Hillary is my mom.
Are your Vince Fosters secret love child?Hillary and my mom are the same height and age. Plot twist Hillary is my mom.
He does have a small brain.Trump is bragging about being ahead of Hillary by 4 in a GA poll.
I don't think he knows how this works!
Kentuckey Rally for Hillary.
Does your mom share yourtaste in alcohol?bad
Are your Vince Fosters secret love child?
So, my fellow internet users. Are we enjoying the politics. Yes. Queen. She should work. I am definitely still Adam. And I encourage you all tell me what I've told you about my relationship with Secretary Clinton who is not my mother. Would you like a butterscotch?
So Godslay, about that source you were pushing yesterday...?
I'm only 5'7.
Finally a president I'll be taller than
Meta and Jack, you shouldn't have taken this public.A debate over Clintons email server has totally ruined this date going on two tables from me
He is literally impossible to talk to if he disagrees with you, it's really not worth it
So Godslay, about that source you were pushing yesterday...?
We shouldn't throw around the word hacked. Email servers don't get hacked...especially when they're covered in hot sauce. That's my version of an on firewall. Yes democratically elected queen in a republic. Work for equal pay for equal work.Adams account has been hijacked by Roger Stone.
Malia Obama's my height at 6'1? Holy shit. Queen.
I ate a Hungry Man. Unfortunately I'm referring to the frozen dinner. I had a fry pie though. I'm working until 9. Sad.I had
1) Prime Rib cooked medium rare, more on the rare side
2) An entire bottle of $12 14 Hands cabernet
I feel good, who feels good with me!?
Daniel B·;203734419 said:
Man, if by some small miracle Bernie doesn't become the 45th President,
I ate a Hungry Man. Unfortunately I'm referring to the frozen dinner. I had a fry pie though. I'm working until 9. Sad.
Thats ok Adam, I too am a hungry man, but not for food!
I'm going to cook something for my berniebro when I get off work though. He's going to the store now. No idea what he's going to want me to cook.
Hahaha. I'm fixing mock chicken legs apparently. Soooo ya.Cook your prime rib
if you know what I'm getting at hint hint hint
I have no idea what I'm talking about, I'm the living embodiment of this song
How has there not been a thread on the nyt trump sexual harrassment story?
They had better not, or this will be me in them streets:
Hillary and my mom are the same height and age. Plot twist Hillary is my mom.
Hahaha. I'm fixing mock chicken legs apparently. Soooo ya.
No lie detected lolI'm calling bullshit on this one. There's no way Chris Christie would even be alive if that were true.
How has there not been a thread on the nyt trump sexual harrassment story?
He's just taking advantage of the situation of being a liar. He really had become a politician
At the Nebraska Republican convention on Saturday, a resolution condemning degrading remarks toward women, minorities and other people by Republican elected office holders or party officials, including candidates for president of the United States was quashed.
The resolution, which fell in the name of party unity, had been intended as an implicit rebuke to Donald Trump, the partys presumptive presidential nominee. The Republicans were meeting to design their state party platform ahead of the national convention in July, at which delegates will create the campaign platform with Trump.
However, state school board member Pat McPherson, who has a history of controversy surrounding racial remarks and has faced allegations of inappropriate behavior towards a woman, made the motion to put the resolution aside.
Last year it was reported that repeated references to President Obama as a half-breed had appeared on McPhersons blog. The Republican activist insisted that an anonymous contributor wrote the posts in question. He declined to identify that person.
The GOP is embracing the fact that it's an overt white nationalist party now.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-never-republicans-223185
Oof, fitting.I think this is the "Acceptance" phase of the grieving process.
I'm not sure Trump is a white nationalist. He's a bit more orange than white to be fair.
I'm not sure Trump is a white nationalist. He's a bit more orange than white to be fair.
You're being racialist against Oompa Loompan Americans, and I'll ask you to retract that m8
They have feelings too!
Probably.
Historically from 1952 to 2012, the likely range of movement in two-candidate margin from this time until Election Day has been 10 percentage points, which is the standard deviation from the 16 past elections. Therefore, even though Clinton currently leads by a median margin of 7 percent (12 national surveys) and would certainly win an election held today, she could still lose the lead, and from a purely poll-based standpoint, is only narrowly favored to be elected President in November (probability: 70%).
It is also the case that Clinton is the only candidate who is poised for a blowout. Her plus-one-sigma outcome (current polls plus one standard deviation) is a popular vote win of 58.5%-41.5%. Trumps plus-one-sigma outcome is a narrower win, 51.5%-48.5%.
I should point out that the last four elections, from 2000 to 2012, have been far less variable than I have calculated above. They show a standard deviation of 4 percentage points. These have been polarized years. But considering the upheaval in the Republican Party, a little voice tells me to open my mind to a wider range of possibilities including a Trump win.
Of course, the Presidential race is played out through the Electoral College, which is composed of winner-take-all races. The basic effect of the Electoral College is to amplify the difference between the two candidates.
The map at the top of this post lists states as being uncertain by either of two criteria:
The median of state polls since February is within 10% for either candidate; or
If there is no polling, then the election margin in 2012 was between Obama +7% and Romney +13%.
Criterion #2 is based on the fact that Clinton-v.-Trump is currently polling about 3 percentage points more Democratic than the Obama-v.-Romney vote in 2012. So a Romney +3% state would be right on the edge at this moment in time.
Obviously, this highly provisional map is simply a starting point. The list of uncertain states will change as more polls become available. For now, it looks like Democrats will have at least 262 electoral votes, and Republicans will have at least 122 electoral votes, with 154 electoral votes up for grabs. It takes 270 electoral votes to win, so Republicans face an uphill climb.
Has this May 9th article from Sam Wang been posted?
Trump expands the battleground to Utah and the Deep South
More at the link.