For real, Bernie?
He needs to learn how to suck it up and unite the party. We cannot leave any doubt. Trump has to be defeated.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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He needs to learn how to suck it up and unite the party. We cannot leave any doubt. Trump has to be defeated.
nature boy
Member
Trump on a Twitter rant
It's a reasonable point, though. If you can look at the polls pre-convention and say that someone has an 80% chance to win the election in November, instead of just an 80% chance to win if the election were held today, then 80% of the time you expect that the probability of the favorite winning is going to eventually collapse to 100% (once we know how everyone voted). The uncertainty that we have before the election is basically due to the possibility of error in polls and to the possibility of something happening that changes people's voting preferences. The concern about polling error is basically a constant and isn't going to get resolved until the election.
Any time your predicted probability gets closer to 50% you're saying that something unlikely has happened. If your predicted probability is jumping around all the time, you're saying that weird stuff is constantly happening. We used to live in an 80% world but something weird happened and now it's a 60% world. Then we got some more (reasonably likely) information that let us go back up to 70%. Then something unexpected happened and now we're at 50%. Or whatever. But the point is that if things that your model didn't expect are happening all the time and changing your prediction, then you were probably way overconfident early on - it's unlikely for so many unlikely things to occur, and so actually we should think that it is normal for elections to be very hard to predict far in advance (and so with a better model we should have been closer to 50% from the beginning).
brainchild
Banned
I cannot believe Bernie is being villainized for his statements about Kaine. They were perfectly reasonable and respectful remarks.
Bernie is a candid guy, and that's what people like about him. We don't need a full throated endorsement of Kaine from Bernie. Kaine was Clinton's choice, not the people's.
Bernie is a candid guy, and that's what people like about him. We don't need a full throated endorsement of Kaine from Bernie. Kaine was Clinton's choice, not the people's.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
OK, "an analysis" cracked me up. You can still make me laugh Trumpy!
Well, the VP is always the candidate's choice and the candidate's choice alone. Has nothing to do with "the people" unless you're triangulating voting blocs.. which is arguably a cynical and "Clinton-ian" way to decide!
But yes, Sanders saying he preferred Warren is pretty innocuous. Very liberal / socialist candidate wanted a very liberal VP pick, whee.
Officerrob
Banned
Villainized is pretty damn strong considering only Diablos went over the top
I agree, but you mean, "Not Bernie's." The people do not select a VP so that can never be true.
BTW no one is doing that to Bernie except for maybe Diablos, and he is unstable.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
brainchild
Banned
I should have be clearer, but I wasn't just talking about PoliGAF, sorry.
Anyway, since I'm posting in this thread, maybe it would have been better to directly respond to Diablos:
He united the party with his fantastic, unambiguous endorsement of Hillary Clinton. The unity of the party will not be affected by Bernie not being head over heels with Kaine.
Stop. Do you realize how many people fart per minute in a giant stadium? It's as if ten guys went to the ocean and organized a pee-in.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Too late, the fish beat them to it.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
A significant percentage of people purposely trying to fart are going to accidentally shit their pants. That's dedication to the cause.
brainchild
Banned
I said "not the people's" as a hypothetical point of contrast with choosing the nominee. The people chose Hillary, so it's reasonable to expect Bernie to strongly endorse her and unite the party in the end. The people did not (and can't) choose the VP, so it is not reasonable to expect Bernie to strongly endorse Kaine.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I just overheard something about Clinton's entrance and "WWE style" on the TV
I am not going back to clarify
I will just mark out when I hear the BONNNNNGGGGGG
Edit: Who am I kidding, she's coming out to Linda McMahon's theme
I am not going back to clarify
I will just mark out when I hear the BONNNNNGGGGGG
Edit: Who am I kidding, she's coming out to Linda McMahon's theme
[Googles Linda McMahon's theme...]
Sounds like a sound-alike of bottom tier Eddie Murphy movie theme from the 80s
He fuckin is, Diablos. Do you have ears? He is saying the right things. There's no point in him coming out and fully saying he LOVES TIM KAINE because it's phony and not worth anything. He did the right thing and said he'd rather have the person who is JUST LIKE HIM be VP but Tim Kaine is a nice guy and they have worked well together.
The only people you need to worry about are people who can actually change their minds, not NeverHillary people.
Jesus fuckin christ I hate the American left. Just the absolute worst.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump (accidentally?) suggests banning immigration from France:
Cesare Borgia
Banned
It's not Sanders' job to carry water for the ticket. Frankly who gives a shit what he thinks about Kaine. He endorsed Hillary, it's time to move on. I don't expect him to praise the democrat ticket because he's not a democrat. He merely gave his opinion, I see no harm in that.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Our cat has been pooping on the floor lately and my dad called him "the Donald Trump of cats"
poor kitty got rekt
Your cat is the Chuck Johnson of cats.
Where did you get that transcript?Trump (accidentally?) suggests banning immigration from France:
I don't see today's on their site yet.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
From the transcript from journalists on Twitter.
Website has summary
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-...ign-role/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=26878574
Website has summary
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-...ign-role/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=26878574
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
I think more importantly it shows he is nowhere near as rich as he claims.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yes, it is possible. Whether it does or not, Hillary needs to lambaste him starting now for it. Start putting out commercials demanding he release his returns.
I'm so sick and tired of democrats not playing politics. The republicans are far and away the better party when it comes to that, and it has a TON of influence on voters.
Y2Kev said:
I admit that PA worries me a bit. That seems like the type of state that would swing Trump if there was a terror attack or some sort of economic hit. I don't see any way that's a clean win at this point, and we haven't had polling there in over 10 days.
Despite my reputation I do not honestly believe Trump has a chance of winning here in PA. Eastern PA and Pittsburgh are the firewall. Western PA outside of the burgh has been conservative since 2008 but it's not enough. People always fail to understand this.
I'm fascinated that the news still has failed to grasp how this state works in the GE time and time again. Frankly it's insulting.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
From twitter
Bernie to CNN: "On his worst, worst, worst day, Tim Kaine is 100 times better than Donald Trump will ever be."
Bernie to CNN: "On his worst, worst, worst day, Tim Kaine is 100 times better than Donald Trump will ever be."
The people behind Wikileaks don't want Republicans to lose.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Just something I realized.
This is literally what the GOP tried to do Watergate but people are just reporting the leaks with out any question on whether they should or the motivation
gutter_trash
Banned
Oh boy, Trump giving a Ailes a job? one ass grabber to another
Oh god, I forgot Kerry won that state.There's no way Clinton will lose NM.
She just has to win PA and it's basically a done deal. You know, the state John fucking Kerry won.
Polls taken during this period will probably not be all that reliable, but she can also win Florida. I think she is actually more likely to win Florida than Ohio.
millionaire, baby he's a millionaire!
I'm OK with this angle. Bernie doesn't have to kiss Clinton/Kaine's feet, but drive home the difference between the two sides.
nature boy
Member
Sopan Deb (CBS News reporter) does transcripts of Trump's interviews as they are broadcasted.
MTP Trump interview online: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...muslim-ban-taxes-and-roger-ailes-731114563939
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Is any one in poligaf Latino or come from an immigrant family/community? Especially in swing states?
GutsOfThor
Member
After reading that wikileaks thread and seeing facebook this morning, I've already starting preparing myself for the worse. I'll be shocked if Clinton wins at this point...
That Jeff Daniels quote from Newsroom is pretty striking right now."You want to know why people don't like liberals? Because they lose. If liberals are so fucking smart then how come they lose so goddamn always."
Wish I knew the answer.
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