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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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T

titiklabingapat

Member
Who in the general public even know what a wikileaks is?

Those that are prone to conspiracy theories will just continue to be the ones who will eat this up, nothing more.
 
S

ShironRedshift

Member
To be clear, I agree with all that. By "a lot of drama" I meant "a lot of drama among the (small) group of former Sanders supporters who hadn't warmed up to Clinton yet due to significant previously-existing concerns about her such as her untrustworthy image and private e-mail server stuff, etc" and not the general public.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
It's gonna be a long 3.5 months, good lord.

titiklabingapat said:
Who in the general public even know what a wikileaks is?

Those that are prone to conspiracy theories will just continue to be the ones who will eat this up, nothing more.
Click to expand...
While broadly true, they're also loud as hell and will continue making a big stink about it on social media. Anything that depresses turnout among likely Clinton supporters, or somehow prompts them to vote for someone else, is unwanted.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Wilsongt said:
So... Basically voter ID laws + depress voters because Kaine isn't liberal enough + angry Bernie voters = Trump win?
Click to expand...

Which really sounds like a terrible strategy, lol
 
N

nature boy

Member
*drudge siren*

538 now has Trump winning at over 40%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll

THE USC DORNSIFE / LA TIMES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION "DAYBREAK" POLL

Trump 45.1
Clinton 41.7

OANN/Gravis Marketing
Trump 51%
Clinton 49%
http://www.oann.com/pollnational/


National General Election:
Clinton (D) 39% (+5)
Trump (R) 34%
Johnson (L) 8%
Stein (G) 3%

@RABAresearch 7/22
http://rabaresearch.com


CoHML-8XEAAh-zR.jpg:large


(was day 4 ever posted? Anyway, keep him under 15% and he's toast.)

Let the Diablosing begin!
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
I knew that USC poll was going to be trouble when they unveiled it. If that initial 3000 respondent poll is too heavily skewed in one way or another you're fucked all the way through. It can capture trends though.

I don't understand this, what is wrong with traditional polling? Why is there a need to experiment like this?
 
M

mo60

Member
In other news the Koch Brothers are not supporting Ron Johnson anymore.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ron-johnson-ad-buy_us_578fdbe0e4b00c9876cdd156
Also, I hope no one diabloses about the polls being released now. The polls will be all over the place for a bit. The two things that will decide this election in the end is turnout, ground game and demographics.No poll will be able to capture the former two. We know trump is weak in the later to right now. We have hints of turnout for some groups like latino probably increasing by a lot in this election.
 
M

mo60

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
What the hell is this website?
Click to expand...

Just recognized that no one else seems to be reporting on this so I decided to link something else from another site that was mentioned in that article I linked before.

nature boy said:
*drudge siren*

538 now has Trump winning at over 40%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll

THE USC DORNSIFE / LA TIMES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION "DAYBREAK" POLL

Trump 45.1
Clinton 41.7

OANN/Gravis Marketing
Trump 51%
Clinton 49%
http://www.oann.com/pollnational/


National General Election:
Clinton (D) 39% (+5)
Trump (R) 34%
Johnson (L) 8%
Stein (G) 3%

@RABAresearch 7/22
http://rabaresearch.com


CoHML-8XEAAh-zR.jpg:large


(was day 4 ever posted? Anyway, keep him under 15% and he's toast.)

Let the Diablosing begin!
Click to expand...

He's toast even if he does not get 30% of the hispanic vote. Trump needs to get above 30% of the hispanic vote to have a very good chance at winning this election looking at historical data unless he gets an insane amount of the white vote which won't happen. Since hispanic voters are worth more than they were in the past losing by like 40 or more will hurt him badly in terms of the popular vote and electoral college.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Mac_Lane said:
About the thread title, I don't know why you guys are being so enthusiastic about that Kaine quote.

As a Frenchman it reminded me an awful lot of "Travail, famille, patrie", which was the motto of the Vichy regime in World War II.
Click to expand...

French meaning in context: An institutionalized motto of Labor, Family, and your Homeland

Spanish meaning in context: A phrase in passing that expresses the structure of (and possibly order of priority in) one's personal values; Faith, Family, Work

The big difference between both phrases is that the French motto represented the values of a regime during WWII, while Kaine's quote represents the values of the people he spent time with in Central America.

Aside from some nebulously superficial connection, there's no direct correlation between that French motto and Kaine's harmless quote.
 
M

Mac_Lane

Member
brainchild said:
French meaning in context: An institutionalized motto of Labor, Family, and your Homeland

Spanish meaning in context: A phrase in passing that expresses the structure of (and possibly order of priority in) one's personal values; Faith, Family, Work

The big difference between both phrases is that the French motto represented the values of a regime during WWII, while Kaine's quote represents the values of the people he spent time with in Central America.

Aside from some nebulously superficial connection, there's no direct correlation between that French motto and Kaine's harmless quote.
Click to expand...


Well, thanks for clearing that up ! And I sure know Kaine's values could not be further apart from those of Pétain, but I just couldn't help notice the connection.

Great speech that he made by the way, I was impressed, barely knew the guy before that.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
mo60 said:
He's toast even if he does not get 30% of the hispanic vote. Trump needs to get above 30% of the hispanic vote to have a very good chance at winning this election looking at historical data unless he gets an insane amount of the white vote which won't happen. Since hispanic voters are worth more than they were in the past losing by like 40 or more will hurt him badly in terms of the popular vote and electoral college.
Click to expand...

People keep saying this, but these Hispanic voters actually have to show up and vote.

Polls seem to be underrepresenting them, but do we actually know the percentage of "likely voter" Hispanics is rising?
 
C

Chaos2Frozen

Member
A thought just occurred to me- can they still be called "Bernie's people" if they don't follow Bernie anymore?

Aren't they more like... Trump's people now?
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
If I had a nickel for every OT post claiming mass fraud and collusion torpedoed Bernie's campaign without being able to point to a single email, well, I could fund the DNC for a year.
 
D

Diablos

Member
nature boy said:
*drudge siren*

538 now has Trump winning at over 40%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll

THE USC DORNSIFE / LA TIMES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION "DAYBREAK" POLL

Trump 45.1
Clinton 41.7

OANN/Gravis Marketing
Trump 51%
Clinton 49%
http://www.oann.com/pollnational/


National General Election:
Clinton (D) 39% (+5)
Trump (R) 34%
Johnson (L) 8%
Stein (G) 3%

@RABAresearch 7/22
http://rabaresearch.com


CoHML-8XEAAh-zR.jpg:large


(was day 4 ever posted? Anyway, keep him under 15% and he's toast.)

Let the Diablosing begin!
Click to expand...
Ughhhhh
 
T

thefro

Member
Chuck Todd got Trump to say he's going to stop immigration from France/Germany since they've been "compromised by terrorism".
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
This was pretty clickbait. In the first two seconds of the video says, 'The emails don't say let's conspire against Bernie Sanders."

From what I've seen, there's some embarrassing emails, but nothing that proves any conspiracy narratives.

w6bZft9.png
 
D

Diablos

Member
Random17 said:
538 had Obama winning by a decent margin until the first debate, when Romney made gains and almost closed the gap before the second debate. A similar thing is happening with Trump, as he was losing, and has now made significant gains.
Click to expand...
And if this is already happening now, what's going to happen after the debates? Meh

Grief.exe said:
This was pretty clickbait. In the first two seconds of the video says, 'The emails don't say let's conspire against Bernie Sanders."

From what I've seen, there's some embarrassing emails, but nothing that proves any conspiracy narratives.

w6bZft9.png
Click to expand...
Cenk is such an idiot. That video of the fight between him and Alex Jones sums up how pathetic "new media" still is despite being around for so many years.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Wilsongt said:
Michael Moore is weird. Shitting all over Bush, and now shitting on Obama and Hillary.
Click to expand...

It isn't weird at all. Moore's criticism of Obama, Hillary, and Bush all center around common flaws -- belligerence, dependence on corporate support, and a disconnect from the voters. He's also a little like Trump in that he'll ramp up the rhetoric for attention.

You can certainly argue that these criticisms are exaggerated, but it's perfectly understandable why he goes after all three of them.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Bernie said Tim Kaine is Hillary's pick not his. He's a nice guy but their political views are not the same, Kaine is much more conservative. Says he would have preferred Warren.
 
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