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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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C

CoolOff

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
538's model says the Electoral College is wildly biased towards Trump, Trump has a 6% chance of winning while losing the popular vote according to their model whereas Hillary has only a 1.6% of winning while losing the popular vote.
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G

Geg

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
538's model says the Electoral College is wildly biased towards Trump, Trump has a 6% chance of winning while losing the popular vote according to their model whereas Hillary has only a 1.6% of winning while losing the popular vote.
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How...?

edit: lmao Trump pls. "I may have done that before I don't remember but I was definitely the best at it"
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
nature boy said:
Networks say no.
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Yup. Maaaybe Johnson cracks 15 if Trump really implodes. Like if he skips the first debate or something and the Republicans with some shred of sanity left realize how badly he's blowing it. (At which point Johnson is on a very tight schedule to make his case) Stein? No way. The left with few exceptions is firmly behind Clinton.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
538's model says the Electoral College is wildly biased towards Trump, Trump has a 6% chance of winning while losing the popular vote according to their model whereas Hillary has only a 1.6% of winning while losing the popular vote.
Click to expand...
giphy.gif
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Is there any polling that asked the respondents about Trump's feud with the Khans? I want to see how lopsided it is or whether 30% of people still think Trump is correct to dispute them.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
538's model says the Electoral College is wildly biased towards Trump, Trump has a 6% chance of winning while losing the popular vote according to their model whereas Hillary has only a 1.6% of winning while losing the popular vote.
Click to expand...

But...that's not what Nate said earlier in the cycle. That's not what the other models are saying either.
 
N

nature boy

Member
GoldenEye 007 said:
Even then, it's not up to the networks. These candidates will need to start polling in the 15% range to get on stage.
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Networks aren't interested in fringe/protest candidates. Johnson's numbers are all over the place, unless he consistently polls above 15% fast he's not going to make it.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
RustyNails said:
Is there any polling that asked the respondents about Trump's feud with the Khans? I want to see how lopsided it is or whether 30% of people still think Trump is correct to dispute them.
Click to expand...

Not yet. Probably in the next round of polling. It's too new to be in the national PPP poll. The Raba poll is a disaster (I think) and I don't think Morning Consult asked it either.

B-Dubs said:
But...that's not what Nate said earlier in the cycle. That's not what the other models are saying either.
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Shhhhh. No questions. Only Nate now.

538 is a mess
 
H

Holmes

Member
whyamihere said:
Johnson getting on stage and Stein not getting on stage would be nightmare material for the Trump campaign.
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Yes, especially since Johnson never really says anything bad about Clinton, ever. I think his goal, were he to make the debate stage, would be to try to siphon as many votes from Trump as possible in order for the Libertarians to gain major party status, even if that means helping Clinton win the Presidency.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Nate assigns too high a probability to outliers (per Nate godcohn) but I don't think he's saying it favors him. He's saying that in his simulations that's what happened. Given existing polling for hilldawg it seems possible.
 
D

dramatis

Member
spock said:
Apologies for the delayed reply as I went to bed, etc. It is true that whats done is done and Bernie is no longer an option...

However you seem to be missing my point on his strength as a candidate against someone like trump in contrast to hillary. Yes bernie had trouble with minorities and certain blocks of the democratic party, but do you think if he did win the nomination those groups would flip and vote trump over bernie? Bernie's strength with white voters is exactly why he would have done better against trump. It is white voters hillary is losing/lacking not traditional dem group.
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This is actually what I think is most gross about the position of the far left.

If Bernie had won, the minorities would have no choice but to back him. But Hillary won, yet the far left insists on its self-importance.

Bernie's strength with white voters and his similarity with Trump in being 'outsiders' means he would fight for the same voters as Trump. Hillary can claim more women and minorities, and the college educated. The winning coalition is not white voters, it's Obama's coalition.

If Bernie were honestly a better candidate than Hillary, he would have won. Full stop.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Iolo said:
Alternatively Nate is seeing something others are not.
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I mean, I guess, but some of the issues just don't seem to make sense.

Why would a poll from March be of any use whatsoever right now, let alone have more utility than an equally rated pollster from July? I think the issue is with some of the assumptions he is making rather than the data he is using.

If a poll shows Hillary up 8, and you have to "adjust it" so Hillary is really down 2...then that poll is useless! Like, I don't get the justification for that.
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
Y2Kev said:
The joke is really tired now.

(You're kidding, right?)
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Nope. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are terrible human beings and Hillary is making it extremely difficult to vote for her as the first woman POTUS with such outlandish claims about what Pres. Obama and his team have done in terms of private sector job growth. I've outlined earlier what I think Mr. Trump could do to punch his ticket to the WH and the main idea he needs to ditch from Romney and the rest is their tax cut bias for the rich.
 
I

Iolo

Member
TheLaughingStock said:
Nope. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are terrible human beings and Hillary is making it extremely difficult to vote for her as the first woman POTUS with such outlandish claims about what Pres. Obama and his team have done in terms of private sector job growth. I've outlined earlier what I think Mr. Trump could do to punch his ticket to the WH and the main idea he needs to ditch from Romney and the rest is their tax cut bias for the rich.
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Why do you call him Mr. Trump. Are you a writer for the New York Times?

If so you're inconsistent, you said Romney, Ryan, Hillary, and Mr. Trump. Pick one form of address pls
 
S

studyguy

Member
Just woke up was on the road all day yesterday. Trump is really getting taken to task over Khans and now his answer for Russian/Crimea bit.

Lord.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
TheLaughingStock said:
Nope. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are terrible human beings and Hillary is making it extremely difficult to vote for her as the first woman POTUS with such outlandish claims about what Pres. Obama and his team have done in terms of private sector job growth. I've outlined earlier what I think Mr. Trump could do to punch his ticket to the WH and the main idea he needs to ditch from Romney and the rest is their tax cut bias for the rich.
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I mean, Trump is a white nationalist fascist. Hillary got Half True on a fact check about job growth.

Can you maybe elaborate on how you find the first preferable to the second?
 
C

Crisco

Banned
TheLaughingStock said:
Nope. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are terrible human beings and Hillary is making it extremely difficult to vote for her as the first woman POTUS with such outlandish claims about what Pres. Obama and his team have done in terms of private sector job growth. I've outlined earlier what I think Mr. Trump could do to punch his ticket to the WH and the main idea he needs to ditch from Romney and the rest is their tax cut bias for the rich.
Click to expand...

Outlandish claims? The economy was tanking, we were losing hundreds of thousands of jobs a month, and the stock market was on what looked like a bottomless dump. Then Obama came into office, bailed out the auto industry and passed his stimulus package. The unemployment rate has been falling ever since, we've gained jobs literally every single month, and the stock market has been hitting all time highs. We are literally the only modern economy on the planet that has been growing the last 8 years. The only thing outlandish is that you're not a joke character with a satirical username.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
TheLaughingStock said:
Nope. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are terrible human beings and Hillary is making it extremely difficult to vote for her as the first woman POTUS with such outlandish claims about what Pres. Obama and his team have done in terms of private sector job growth. I've outlined earlier what I think Mr. Trump could do to punch his ticket to the WH and the main idea he needs to ditch from Romney and the rest is their tax cut bias for the rich.
Click to expand...

What you call an "outlandish" claim is rated rated "half true" in your own link! And your comments on Romney's tax plan apply almost exactly to Trump! I do not think you are to be taken seriously if this is not a joke.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
TheLaughingStock said:
Nope. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are terrible human beings and Hillary is making it extremely difficult to vote for her as the first woman POTUS with such outlandish claims about what Pres. Obama and his team have done in terms of private sector job growth. I've outlined earlier what I think Mr. Trump could do to punch his ticket to the WH and the main idea he needs to ditch from Romney and the rest is their tax cut bias for the rich.
Click to expand...

I have no idea how you are going to be able to keep this up for another hundred days, but good luck!
 
D

dramatis

Member
Amusingly, I found a short write up about Tim Kaine's outfit at the DNC.

Tim Kaine’s Dad Style Makes a Statement in Philadelphia [NYT Style Section]
Of all the male power speakers at the convention thus far, he was the least tailored. In fact, he looked kind of schlubby. In his gray suit, which pulled and bunched when he waved his arms, his dull blue shirt, and his tie with the wide red, dark gray and blue stripes that somehow matched his shirt and blended the two together, he looked like the anti-image-consultant guy. And I bet that is all to the good. After all, it is partly the point.

Mr. Kaine may have a lot of experience in government (he does), and foreign policy and military cred (he does), all of which were most material in his selection as vice-presidential candidate, but he is also unshowy; he’s the normal guy, in contrast to a woman in extraordinary circumstances. The one who doesn’t wear designer duds. The one everyone who doesn’t relate to Mrs. Clinton can relate to.

At least, in those clothes he was.
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N

nature boy

Member
Game over. Not that I expected them to change:

CotWYEkWIAAiDBT.jpg:large


Kusagari said:
I'd be worried if they did it too early the bump would dissipate by the time of the debate and they would find some way to keep him out.
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Well formally no one has been invited yet and I don't think the criteria (namely what polls the CPD will use to determine who's invited) is public yet, so unless he gets a bump very soon he's not going to make it to the debates.

Don't think they're going to use polls one week from the 1st debate.


Damn.

CotXCEUXYAADXR5.jpg:large
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
TheLaughingStock said:
Nope. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are terrible human beings and Hillary is making it extremely difficult to vote for her as the first woman POTUS with such outlandish claims about what Pres. Obama and his team have done in terms of private sector job growth. I've outlined earlier what I think Mr. Trump could do to punch his ticket to the WH and the main idea he needs to ditch from Romney and the rest is their tax cut bias for the rich.
Click to expand...


080.jpg
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Obama's at 54% on Gallup today. Guess he got a convention bounce too!

All he needs to do is make a great speech every once in a while and people are like "Oh yeah, that's why we elected him"

Can't see him going any higher than 55 in this climate but it'd be nice to see him hit 60% or higher. Go out like a champ. The 70% or so he came in with is the dream, obviously - I wouldn't be too surprised if his post-presidency ratings tracked closer to that.
 
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