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[Geg]

I can see all the Obama '12 states plus NC, but AZ? Doubt it. Especially after all the voting problems there during the primary.

 

[TS-08]

On This Week, Cenk said that he expects Trump to win 279 to 259.



No, not that. The claim that Trump didn't support going into Iraq.

The article will answer the question.

 

[HylianTom]

Plouffe predicting Hillary to win all Obama '12 states plus North Carolina and Arizona = Hopium.

Both he and Axelrod seem metaphysically certain about the outcome of this campaign. It's odd, but should be reassuring to anyone seeking encouragement. Team Clinton just needs to keep executing its plans.

 

[Wilsongt]

She didn't, though someone might spin it that way.

In the recent Fox interview, she was asked about the mother whose son died in Benghazi, who claimed that Hillary told them when the bodies were brought back that the death was caused by the anti-Muslim video and not terrorism, something that other parents of victims disagree with. Chris Wallace asked, "Why would they make that up?" After expressing her empathy towards the parents and their deep loss, she said, "As other families who have lost loved ones have said, that's not what they heard. I don't hold any ill feeling for someone who, in that moment, may not fully recall everything that was or wasn't said."

It's a pretty diplomatic response. Considering that she's backed up by other military families who were also there (they can't both be telling the truth!) and she isn't assigning any sort of intentional malice, it's not going to run outside of the right wing circles where everyone's already convinced she's a heartless liar.

So even more reason she is horrible.

Got it.

That was the spin Fox was going for this morning, then. Calling her a hypocrit.

 

[HylianTom]

!

@MoRocca almost made me do a spit-take here..

Republican leadership keeps hoping it will wake up next to Suzanne Pleshette.

 

[Oblivion]

The article will answer the question.

Ah okay.

 

[Bowdz]

Whoever thought it was a good idea to do a Fox News interview for Clinton was crazy. CNN opened with Trump's fuckup, but the second segment was "Both side of the aisle dealing with headaches from their candidates" and jumped back into the email scandal for a segment. Either get a good answer on the email question ready, or don't fucking go on Fox.

 

[rjinaz]

I can see all the Obama '12 states plus NC, but AZ? Doubt it. Especially after all the voting problems there during the primary.

Problems caused by policies created by the Republican politicians here.

It will be tough, but I think if Clinton puts in some time here, she can do it. There are a lot of people scared of Trump here and for good reason.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

!

@MoRocca almost made me do a spit-take here..

Hahahahaha

 

[Wilsongt]

Donald Trump is now a Pokemon lolololol

 

[nature boy]

Whoever thought it was a good idea to do a Fox News interview for Clinton was crazy. CNN opened with Trump's fuckup, but the second segment was "Both side of the aisle dealing with headaches from their candidates" and jumped back into the email scandal for a segment. Either get a good answer on the email question ready, or don't fucking go on Fox.

And it shows why she won't do a press conference: they really haven't nailed a proper answer.

 

[Boke1879]

And tbh there probably isn't a good answer for the email thing.

 

[Fuchsdh]

And tbh there probably isn't a good answer for the email thing.

If she'd said she fucked up from the get-go then we wouldn't have gotten this far with otherwise-more-reasonable people. But she enabled the conspiracy theories to take hold.

 

[rjinaz]

I don't know, I mean I'm glad she did the Fox interview. She can look impartial or not afraid to be challenged, and she got it out of the way early.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Plouffe predicting Hillary to win all Obama '12 states plus North Carolina and Arizona = Hopium.

I think it'll be NC and GA, not NC and AZ, but yeah, I mostly agree.

 

[Lmo911]

I'll bet you something incredibly stupid that he doesn't get 45%

There's no way he's hitting that

People want the Joe Pa statue back at Penn State... do not overestimate people.

 

[GutsOfThor]

And it shows why she won't do a press conference: they really haven't nailed a proper answer.

Do you all think Clinton could improve her favorability by being more open to the press. One might suggest that even though trumps interaction with the press is almost always a mess, he comes across as more open to people and less secretive than Clinton. I think to some people, Clinton always comes across as trying to hide something.

Just a random thought.

 

[Boke1879]

If she'd said she fucked up from the get-go then we wouldn't have gotten this far with otherwise-more-reasonable people. But she enabled the conspiracy theories to take hold.

Oh I agree. Just say it was a mistake.

It's amazing though. She had to walk a tightrope around that issue.

Meanwhile Trump says whatever bs comes to his mind.

 

[RustyNails]

Whoever thought it was a good idea to do a Fox News interview for Clinton was crazy. CNN opened with Trump's fuckup, but the second segment was "Both side of the aisle dealing with headaches from their candidates" and jumped back into the email scandal for a segment. Either get a good answer on the email question ready, or don't fucking go on Fox.

What you saw on fox news is the answer they're sticking with. Yeah I dont get it either. Maybe she means somehow not marked classified in the subject line, but it doesnt matter. It's time to accept defeat after FBI slammed her. Mook, what are you doing mang.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

And tbh there probably isn't a good answer for the email thing.

There's a long winding answer to put the whole thing in context if you're good at explaining things like Obama or Bill. She isn't.

It's possible to explain that, among tens of thousands of correspondence documents, yes, literally three or four with improper classified markings slipped through without her recognizing or being aware of it because shit happens. And also to explain that, while it's important to always err on the side of caution, there's classified and then there's classified and nothing in these was a major security concern. And that departments can't even agree on all of this because the whole classification system represents some of the most cartoonish examples of government bureaucracy. (That one's a little trickier.)

Anyway, she's not good at any of that.

 

[User 463088]

McCain's Statement about Trump

"I claim no moral superiority over Donald Trump. I have a long and well-known public and private record for which I will have to answer at the Final Judgment, and I repose my hope in the promise of mercy and the moderation of age. I challenge the nominee to set the example for what our country can and should represent.

Arizona is watching. It is time for Donald Trump to set the example for our country and the future of the Republican Party. While our Party has bestowed upon him the nomination, it is not accompanied by unfettered license to defame those who are the best among us.

Lastly, I'd like to say to Mr. and Mrs. Khan: thank you for immigrating to America. We're a better country because of you. And you are certainly right; your son was the best of America, and the memory of his sacrifice will make us a better nation -- and he will never be forgotten."

 

[Oblivion]

So here's one thing I don't get about emailgate.

One of the major issues is that there was in fact classified information in some of her emails. But even if Hillary didn't have a private server and used the State dept account, this would still be an issue because classified info is not supposed to be sent on any non-secure network to begin with, right? The State dept. has their own special network where that sort of thing is handled. So what the heck?

 

[Rebel Leader]

When all is said and done, this might be my favorite election picture. Or the picture I saw of Ben Carson's painting of Jesus and Ben Carson.

How could you forget Bobby Jindal portrait?

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

So here's one thing I don't get about emailgate.

One of the major issues is that there was in fact classified information in some of her emails. But even if Hillary didn't have a private server and used the State dept account, this would still be an issue because classified info is not supposed to be sent on any non-secure network to begin with, right? The State dept. has their own special network where that sort of thing is handled. So what the heck?

Yes, the personal server is a red herring in regard to the actual concerns. Someone could explain that pretty well too!

 

[rjinaz]

McCain's Statement about Trump

It is time for Donald Trump to set the example for our country and the future of the Republican Party.

Lol this is only going one way. The future is doom. Glad he can finally admit it.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Pretty amazing graphic from NYT on the future of the Supreme Court. This election boils down to the choice between a very conservative court or literally the most liberal court in modern American history:

 

[thefro]

There's a long winding answer to put the whole thing in context if you're good at explaining things like Obama or Bill. She isn't.

It's possible to explain that, among tens of thousands of correspondence documents, yes, literally three or four with improper classified markings slipped through without her recognizing or being aware of it because shit happens. And also to explain that, while it's important to always err on the side of caution, there's classified and then there's classified and nothing in these was a major security concern. And that departments can't even agree on all of this because the whole classification system represents some of the most cartoonish examples of government bureaucracy. (That one's a little trickier.)

Anyway, she's not good at any of that.

It ought to be "I've made a mistake, I apologize for it and I've learned from it." I don't think she's completely out of the woods to where she can talk about it in any more detail without using legalese (since Gowdy wanted the FBI to investigate whether she lied to Congress).

 

[Bowdz]

Do you all think Clinton could improve her favorability by being more open to the press. One might suggest that even though trumps interaction with the press is almost always a mess, he comes across as more open to people and less secretive than Clinton. I think to some people, Clinton always comes across as trying to hide something.

Just a random thought.

It's a double edged sword. She'd look more open and less shady, but for every voter that gets that impression, you'd have one that is turned off by her constantly shifting answers on the email question. The email scandal has been THE defining characteristic of her oppo and anytime it is in the conversation, it is a losing topic for her because it plays into the narrative the GOP has established for her.

I agree with a point someone made yesterday. Come out in some interview and just use a super carefully crafted statement acknowledging the fuck up, not only of the server setup in the first place, but about her original responses to the scandal. Take the bad news cycle and try to put it to rest. Hell, take a page from the West Wing and pull a Vinnick by doing it in a press conference and just let reporters exhaust any and every question they have. Let them get it out of their system.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Lol this is only going one way. The future is doom. Glad he can finally admit it.

I don't think he understands. Trump has been, since the beginning, showed the example he is asking for.

 

[Frank the Great]

Pretty amazing graphic from NYT on the future of the Supreme Court. This election boils down to the choice between a very conservative court or literally the most liberal court in modern American history:

Assuming Republicans let any of Hillary's nominations through. I'm really starting to doubt they will.

 

[rjinaz]

I don't think he understands. Trump has been, since the beginning, showed the example he is asking for.

Trump is like a walking cliche of the party for sure. The future of the party rests on Donald Trump, that's McCain's own words. They are screwed and he knows it. Not sure why he decided to go down with the ship by backing the Donald to this point, but I won't be sad to see McCain gone.

 

[Plinko]

Assuming Republicans let any of Hillary's nominations through. I'm really starting to doubt they will.

They will.

 

[rjinaz]

Assuming Republicans let any of Hillary's nominations through. I'm really starting to doubt they will.

But the people would have spoken. I expect the Republican leadership to stand by their word.

Spoiler

bwahaha

 

[Chicken]

Assuming Republicans let any of Hillary's nominations through. I'm really starting to doubt they will.

They can justify not letting a nominee get a vote for 7-8 months, they can't justify it for four years.

 

[VRMN]

They will.

I kind of assume that a Clinton win will some with at least 50 Dem senators. They won't filibuster because then the Dems will just kill it entirely.

 

[Grief.exe]

Assuming Republicans let any of Hillary's nominations through. I'm really starting to doubt they will.

That is the weird thing about the entire Garland situation, is the Republicans chose to literally break or government. This could set a very dangerous precedent.

 

[Rebel Leader]

"Sure the people elected Clinton as president, but elected republicans for everything else, and since trump wasn't a real republican, we`ll wait in till Clinton goes against a true republican that cares about the constitution"

 

[sphagnum]

So while I was on vacation these past few days I overheard a guy at a seafood restaurant talking about how he works for a VR content provider and they shot something where you're sitting with President Obama in the Oval Office and he goes over his second term ending as if he's speaking with you. I thought this was something that hadn't been reported yet and that maybe I'd gotten some sort of new info you might be interested in but after some googling maybe it's related to this thing?

With big skies, some very lucky 4th Graders on hand and a White House virtual reality first, President Barack Obama spent today at Yosemite National Park kicking off the summer-long celebration of the 100th anniversary of the National Park Service. In a walk and talk interview with National Geographic Channel’s Explorer host Richard Bacon, the Commander-in-chief announced his envy of the 26th POTUS and naturalist Teddy Roosevelt’s ability to take off into the wild for weeks at a time. He also told Bacon that he believed that the National Parks are “America’s best idea.” As well as filming with Nat Geo, including a virtual reality experience to be shown later this summer, Obama was joined on the visit by First Lady Michelle Obama, the First Daughters. Watch a clip of the chat and hike with Explorer‘s Bacon here:

The full interview and hike will be broadcast as as part of Nat Geo’s expanded programming on America’s nation parks, which starts on August 23. Also, “this weekend National Geographic, Facebook and its Oculus team, and Félix & Paul Studios, will shoot The White House’s first 360 virtual reality video experience and capture President Obama visiting Yosemite National Park,” Nat Geo announced today online. That VR experience will also air later this summer, the channel says.

http://deadline.com/2016/06/barack-...geographic-channel-explorer-video-1201775141/

Aside from that he mentioned something about Morgan Spurlock and Charlie Rose VR but I didn't hear all that.

 

[HylianTom]

But the people would have spoken. I expect the Republican leadership to stand by their word.

Spoiler

bwahaha

It's nukey-nuke-nuke time from Schumer if the Senate GOP decides to play it that way. We'd have a two-year window to get everyone through. Scalia's replacement, RBG.. I hope Breyer would see fit to step down, too.

In this era, flipping the court is going to be damn, damn difficult for either side. This is an opportunity that won't come by often.

 

[sangreal]

So here's one thing I don't get about emailgate.

One of the major issues is that there was in fact classified information in some of her emails. But even if Hillary didn't have a private server and used the State dept account, this would still be an issue because classified info is not supposed to be sent on any non-secure network to begin with, right? The State dept. has their own special network where that sort of thing is handled. So what the heck?

Yes, it's a red herring, but the reason this is ignored is because the personal server can be blamed on Hillary while the blame for sending should-have-been-classified info is shared by everyone else at the State Dept. Comey did briefly point this out in his public lashing though

 

[User 463088]

It's not about one bad media cycle, though. If she comes out and says she was wrong about the emails, she's going to 1) reopen the thing and 2) reinforce the concept that she lied. If she is on the record as saying she was incorrect, it's going to go in every Trump and Super PAC ad from here to November.

She needs a better answer, maybe, but that is not it.

I'd say something like "Out of 30,000 emails, 3 or 4 were incorrectly marked as classified, in my opinion. These emails had nothing in them that should have been classified, and I disagree strongly that they were marked as such. This reinforces what I and other former Secretaries of State have said: that there are issues with how information is labeled at the state department. One of the goals of my administration will be to modernize the State Department and make sure that no future Secretaries will be unable to do their jobs because of outdated information security policies."

 

[Crisco]

Again, the pure poetic justice of all this is almost too much for me. Despite their best efforts, the GOP couldn't put a dent in Obama's reputation or his overall popularity with the American people, and instead helped prop up a neo-facist moron to be the face of their party. Just amazing.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

It's not about one bad media cycle, though. If she comes out and says she was wrong about the emails, she's going to 1) reopen the thing and 2) reinforce the concept that she lied. If she is on the record as saying she was incorrect, it's going to go in every Trump and Super PAC ad from here to November.

She needs a better answer, maybe, but that is not it.

I'd say something like "Out of 30,000 emails, 3 or 4 were incorrectly marked as classified, in my opinion. These emails had nothing in them that should have been classified, and I disagree strongly that they were marked as such. This reinforces what I and other former Secretaries of State have said: that there are issues with how information is labeled at the state department. One of the goals of my administration will be to modernize the State Department and make sure that no future Secretaries will be unable to do their jobs because of outdated information security policies."

[insert "i agree with this" equivalent draq queens gif here]

 

[Veritigo_X]

Hillary and Kaine are doing a Q&A on Quora on August 8th. Probably a good idea to do it there since Reddit is a racist shithole filled with Trump supporters.

https://blog.quora.com/Ask-Hillary-...ons-about-the-most-important-political-issues

 

[User 463088]

[insert "i agree with this" equivalent draq queens gif here]

I got you brah!

 

[IggyChooChoo]

It's nukey-nuke-nuke time from Schumer if the Senate GOP decides to play it that way. We'd have a two-year window to get everyone through. Scalia's replacement, RBG.. I hope Breyer would see fit to step down, too.

In this era, flipping the court is going to be damn, damn difficult for either side. This is an opportunity that won't come by often.

There are a ton of non-Supreme federal court vacancies that would make a huge impact as well. Hillary's election could wind up being massively consequential for moving liberalism forward despite the GOP deadlock on legislation -- even if she's a one-termer.

 

[nature boy]

Do you all think Clinton could improve her favorability by being more open to the press. One might suggest that even though trumps interaction with the press is almost always a mess, he comes across as more open to people and less secretive than Clinton. I think to some people, Clinton always comes across as trying to hide something.

Just a random thought.

Depends on what you mean by "more open". More interviews? Yes, on more favorable shows (morning and talk shows). At least once every two weeks, at least. Show the contrast and why she wants to be President. I mean, you have a shit stain of a candidate on the other side, people would want an excuse to vote for you.

And do some press conferences, especially when Trump says something stupid. Don't put out a statement from an advisor, FFS.

But with 100 days to go, they're not going to change their media strategy. They're going to play it safe. So don't expect things to change.

And another opinion on 538: http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/08/fivethirtyeights-forecasts/

A few thoughts on FiveThirtyEight:

1) Ignoring Polls-Plus: the link on the front-page goes to polls-only, so I am going to cite it as the main forecast. The polls-plus model did worse than the polls-only model in the primary, so I guess they have given up on it. And, it is not OK to pick and choose from multiple models each day. I get the difference between the three models (including now-cast), but there needs to be topline model they believe in. I assume that to be the one they link to. Thus, I will ignore polls-plus model.

2) Polls-Only is Really Conservative: today FiveThirtyEight has Pennsylvania as 56% for Clinton. She is up by 4 pp on Pollster and 4.6 pp nationally. Not to mention the Democrats have won PA every year since 1992. I am not sure how they justify this probability. They must be assuming some really insane variation.

3) Polls-Only is Not Believable: I believe their entire process is under-identified. They simply have too many variables for too few outcomes. They include ridiculous polls and have some crazy scheme for weighting polling companies. I used to use FiveThirtyEight as solid polls-only forecasts, but at this point, I think they are just doing to much to be believable.

I will continue to use Pollster’s trend as a much better approximation of the current state of the election (for polling-only, obviously we are huge fans of including prediction market data!) in any given state. And, use my very simple aggregation of the Pollster average into a probability. I am confident that the Pollster trend combined with a simple standard deviation derived empirically will create a more accurate polls-only forecast than all of their work. The method is here and the output is here.

 

[Oblivion]

Yes, it's a red herring, but the reason this is ignored is because the personal server can be blamed on Hillary while the blame for sending should-have-been-classified info is shared by everyone else at the State Dept. Comey did briefly point this out in his public lashing though

So emailgate is even dumber that I originally thought it was?

 

[B-Dubs]

So emailgate is even dumber that I originally thought it was?

Welcome to Clinton scandals, often even dumber than you could possibly imagine.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

TRIFECTA

Wouldn't be surprised if Gates and Zuckerberg do as well. They are humanitarians and everyone should not want a Trump presidency.

Truth be told, that's why I'm so pro-Clinton at the moment. Trump (and his supporters) just paint a nasty, scary American - and possibly world - picture.

Hillary and Kaine are doing a Q&A on Quora on August 8th. Probably a good idea to do it there since Reddit is a racist shithole filled with Trump supporters.

https://blog.quora.com/Ask-Hillary-...ons-about-the-most-important-political-issues

I'm gonna ask Kaine if he likes helping puppies and kittens in his local animal shelter in his free time.