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[Cesare Borgia]

omg

Paula Ryan is cute lol

1. Kushner
2. Ryan
3. Giuliani

 

[cartoon_soldier]

GA-6 Turnout:

Fall in Black voters = worrying for Dems.
Fall in young voters = probably why Ossoff didn't cross 50% on first round.

 

[pigeon]

This is the stuff I don't like about liberal politics. Governments should exist to serve the people. If an industry is dying, we should guarantee jobs or pensions for the disenfranchised people, rather than leave them out on the cold.

Hillary had a much better plan for this than Trumb, but we can't expect every 50-year-old coal miner to become a programmer. Why are federal employment and industry-specific unemployment relief off the table? Even if such programs are expensive, they provide a moral and social good while also building Democratic support in blighted industrial communities.

Sure, I agree with all of this.

I think a big part of it is the culture of America. If you aren't working, you're a lazy bum without a purpose in life. People want to work. Of course they (we all) want jobs that they can make a living wage from with good healthcare/benefits. They (we all) want a job that intellectually/physically stimulates. They (we all) want jobs that play into their personal interests. At the end of the day though, they (we all) want to work. Just saying "more unemployment benefits" or "basic income for all" just isn't appealing to a lot of people and can be in fact a turn off even if it might be helpful in the short term.

That's just a presentation problem. Call it "more help starting small businesses" instead. What's better than basic income for giving you the freedom to start your own company?

Even if some people in America who want single payer have bigoted views, the election of progressive Democrats in such places stops this bigotry from being expressed.

Sure, but we can't elect progressive Democrats in those places, we can only elect Democrats who compromise with white supremacy. Which intrinsically makes them not progressive and prevents them from stopping bigotry!

Sirpopopop suggested that coal miners would never support government assistance, but the apparent popularity of single payer suggests otherwise.

This is obviously fallacious, but also, the recent survey on single payer is really notable here for making it clear that most Americans just don't know much about single payer and don't have strong fixed opinions on it (hence why their opinions change so dramatically when confronted with new arguments).

 

[Grexeno]

GA-6 Turnout:

Fall in Black voters = worrying for Dems.
Fall in young voters = probably why Ossoff didn't cross 50% on first round.

"What's a special election?"

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

That Heritage Foundation article is really disturbing. The Antisemitism is barely even disguised and the article works in a lot of creepy old stereotypes about Jewish persons.

 

[Dan]

State Department blogs are writing puff pieces about Mar-a-Lago.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

That Heritage Foundation article is really disturbing. The Antisemitism is barely even disguised and the article works in a lot of creepy old stereotypes about Jewish persons.

Which article?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Which article?

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...s-is-no-second-order-threat-in-global-affairs

 

[cartoon_soldier]

"What's a special election?"

Yes, hopefully 18-29 turnout is like 2006. But that fall is quite worrying.

 

[Teggy]

Look at Obama's terrible record on the deficit! He blew up the deficit! Let's run country like a business!


1 month later. Eh, deficit is no big deal.

 

[Suikoguy]

"What's a special election?"

Yeah, are we comparing Special Election to midterms?
Kinda hard to do with any accuracy.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

GA-6 Turnout:

Fall in Black voters = worrying for Dems.
Fall in young voters = probably why Ossoff didn't cross 50% on first round.

Id say this is actually pretty good. Means Ossoff's ceiling is above 50%, which some were wondering about. Democrats just need to figure out which voters to target in the runoff. I do think a runoff would higher turnout than the primary, maybe?

 

[Grexeno]

Id say this is actually pretty good. Means Ossoff's ceiling is above 50%, which some were wondering about. Democrats just need to figure out which voters to target in the runoff. I do think a runoff would higher turnout than the primary, maybe?

"What do you mean runoff? I already voted in the election."

 

[Kusagari]

Basically if young people made up the same percentage of the electorate as they did in a presidential year, Ossoff easily crosses 50.

Problem is that's never going to happen.

 

[whyamihere]

GA-6 Turnout:

Fall in Black voters = worrying for Dems.
Fall in young voters = probably why Ossoff didn't cross 50% on first round.

There's something so beautiful about you failing to post the entire article, which Nate Cohn says that most of the data is genuinely optimistic for Democrats and turn it into this. It's like kiss-my-fingers perfect.

For the record, we need to increase black and youth turnout for Ossoff to win the runoff, but the way you framed this isn't how the article was presented which is sort of shitty.

"What do you mean runoff? I already voted in the election."

I'm pretty sure every single human in GA-6 understands the runoff situation at this point, unfortunately for them. The ads are relentless.

 

[Grexeno]

I'm pretty sure every single human in GA-6 understands the runoff situation at this point, unfortunately for them. The ads are relentless.

"I cut cable 5 years ago. What's an ad?"

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

"I cut cable 5 years ago. What's an ad?"

Internet
Phone calls
Signs
Live Canvassers
The fact that your voter card comes in the mail before the election (presumably)

 

[whyamihere]

Let's actually post the article/accompanying tweets to see what's said.

@Nate_Cohn
Democratic turnout for Jon Ossoff surpasses GOP, midterm levels in GA-6 special election https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/...f-surpassed-recent-democratic-benchmarks.html

@Nate_Cohn
Over all, Democratic primary voters were 4 pts likelier to vote than Republicans. That's very unusual. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/...f-surpassed-recent-democratic-benchmarks.html

@Nate_Cohn
Even so, Republican primary vote outnumbered Dems by a 52-29% margin. Ossoff probably won 15-20 of past GOP voters; 2/3 of no primary vote

@Nate_Cohn
The bad news for Democrats: this was a midterm electorate. Old and white, even if Dems showed up big.

@Nate_Cohn
Adding the age/race/demographics of voters into the equation (right chart) makes the Dem advantage a little weaker, but still real

@Nate_Cohn
Asian turnout was highest after controlling for vote history, party, etc. I think it's the first time I've seen that

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/...f-surpassed-recent-democratic-benchmarks.html

Jon Ossoff benefited from an unusually strong turnout in the first round of voting in Georgia's Sixth Congressional District last week, surpassing all recent benchmarks for Democratic turnout in an off-year election, according to an Upshot analysis of newly released voting data.

Past Democratic primary voters represented a larger share of the district's voters than they did in 2016 or 2014, and they turned out in greater numbers than in a typical midterm election.

The election in Georgia's Sixth is only the latest in a string of special elections where Democrats have turned out in impressive numbers. It's a reversal from recent off-year elections, when Republicans turned out at far greater rates than Democrats.

If the pattern holds into next year's midterm elections, it will help the party's long-shot goal to win back the House. Historically, Democratic midterm turnout has been stronger when Republicans hold the presidency.

The Republican turnout was not weak. Past Republican primary voters turned out at rates that were nearly typical for a midterm — a rare feat for a special election. It was enough to keep Mr. Ossoff beneath the 50 percent necessary to win outright.

But Democrats did something even rarer: A larger percentage of Democratic primary voters turned out than did Republican primary voters, by a four-percentage-point margin. Even when Democrats surged in successful years nationally in 2006, 2008 and 2012, their turnout of primary voters didn't beat that of the Republicans, either nationwide or in Georgia's Sixth.

Not all of the news was good for Democrats. The electorate was not as favorable for Mr. Ossoff as the electorate was for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

The electorate was almost exactly as old and white as would be expected in a normal midterm electorate. This is not surprising — there is no recent precedent for a strong turnout among young and nonwhite voters in midterm elections. But this sort of pattern would hamper Democrats in relatively diverse districts where they depend more on nonwhite voters, like those in Southern and Central California, South Florida and Texas.

But Democrats nonetheless did a far better job of turning out younger and less regular voters than the Republicans did. Over all, 56 percent of Democratic primary voters under age 45 turned out to vote, compared with 43 percent of past Republican primary voters of the same age. Similarly, 45 percent of past Democratic primary voters who didn't vote in the 2014 midterm elections ultimately voted, compared with 34 percent of Republicans.

His strength among past Republican primary voters was most evident in the early and absentee vote. Mr. Ossoff won 64 percent of early and absentee voters, even though past Democratic and Republican primary voters each represented 41 percent of the group.

Win or lose, the strong turnout for Mr. Ossoff indicates that Democrats might not be hampered by low turnout to the extent they have been in recent off-year elections. Alone, it won't be enough to ensure that the party has a big day next November — or even does particularly well. But it's probably a prerequisite to greater success.

I would appreciate if we maybe didn't try to warp what's in good data journalism in order to take the entire threads into someone's own need to self-flagellate at every possible moment.

"I cut cable 5 years ago. What's an ad?"

v

Internet
Phone calls
Signs
Live Canvassers
The fact that your voter card comes in the mail before the election (presumably)

It's literally everywhere. Also, you realize that runoffs are a thing in Georgia, right? This is not a one-off event.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Internet
Phone calls
Signs
Live Canvassers
The fact that your voter card comes in the mail before the election (presumably)

what's a voter card

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

what's a voter card

Card that usually comes in the mail before an election and has address, polling place, etc on it

I assumed that was standard but maybe it's just where I'm from lol

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Card that usually comes in the mail before an election and has address, polling place, etc on it

I assumed that was standard but maybe it's just where I'm from lol

I same day registered the first two times I voted but I don't remember anything like that this year

Idaho's voting laws are actually surprisingly good though, probably because no one is worried about losing enough to try and suppress the vote lol

 

[studyguy]

https://twitter.com/naomimartin/status/856599294643765249

Naomi Martin (@NaomiMartin)
Dallas County judge grants @TomiLahren req to depose Glenn Beck, get emails betw TheBlaze & DailyCaller reporter who did neg story abt her

Tammi about to droppo the oppo on Beck.
Delicious popcorn.

 

[Armaros]

https://twitter.com/naomimartin/status/856599294643765249


Tammi about to droppo the oppo on Beck.
Delicious popcorn.

AIR ALL THE DIRT.

 

[whyamihere]

This is an underlying point of GA-6. Don't think Ossoff could win otherwise, and don't think Hillary would've come close without it.

@Nate_Cohn
One thing that I've sort of overlooked, but that @PatrickRuffini reminded me of: the pace of demographic shift in GA-6

@Nate_Cohn
Nationally, demographic change is pretty slow. In some states, it can be notably quick. But in some districts, it can be fast. GA-6 is fast.

@Nate_Cohn
By our estimates, Trump would have won GA-6 by 10.5 points if the electorate only included those reg pre-15. But newly reg supported C by 22

@Nate_Cohn
Yes, there's a lot of Romney-Clinton vote. But this district added a lot of new young, nonwhite Dems since '15. Hard to go back.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

https://twitter.com/naomimartin/status/856599294643765249


Tammi about to droppo the oppo on Beck.
Delicious popcorn.

I wanna see dem skid marks, put that dirty laundry out there

 

[Armaros]

I wanna see dem skid marks, put that dirty laundry out there

Skid marks? This is the daily caller involved, this is a giant cesspool of dirt.

 

[Dan]

Crossposting.

Here we go.

Tillerson to chair UN meeting on North Korea

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson plans on chairing a special meeting of the United Nations Security Council on North Korea this Friday in New York City, according to a spokesman.

“The D.P.R.K. [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] poses one of the gravest threats to international peace and security through its pursuit of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and other weapons of mass destruction as well as its other prohibited activities,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner said in a statement Monday.

“The meeting will give Security Council members an opportunity to discuss ways to maximize the impact of existing Security Council measures and show their resolve to respond to further provocations with appropriate new measures.”

Shades of Powell's UN visits ahead of the Iraq invasion, anyone?

 

[whyamihere]

Warren endorses Perriello: https://twitter.com/HuffingtonPost/status/856627932797816832

 

[Emerson]

I think there's something to all the North Korea stuff.

This doesn't strike me as Trump's usual incompetent bluster. This is another form of incompetent bluster, but more purposeful than he usually manages. If I had to guess, Intel says North Korea is closer to attaining a nuclear ICBM than people think.

I suspect this is one of the big things Obama counseled Trump on before he took office.

 

[Wilsongt]

So Trump said that if people didn't like his UN ambassador, that he will change her.

Fucking sexist creep.

 

[CygnusXS]

At least this time everyone agrees that the target country has WMDs.

 

[whyamihere]

At least this time everyone agrees that the target country has WMDs.

I lol'ed, then cried, but also, yes.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Warren endorses Perriello: https://twitter.com/HuffingtonPost/status/856627932797816832

Good, and good to see this getting national attention.

I would certainly want Northam to win the GE should he win the primary, but he doesn't seem like a very strong candidate. He seems like one who would prefer to just cruise in on the back of anti-Trump sentiment.

After seeing Kander last year, I think Democrats in general should be running candidates who can explain why they deserve a seat or office, without mentioning Trump or their opponent. Ossoff and Perriello both seem well-equipped in that regard.

 

[jtb]

Beto O'Rourke sounded awesome on Lovett or Leave It (which is a fucking terrible show, but that's neither here nor there.) The no PAC money stuff sounded really smart.

Long odds, but he seems.... not completely dead in the water.

 

[whyamihere]

Beto O'Rourke sounded awesome on Lovett or Leave It (which is a fucking terrible show, but that's neither here nor there.) The no PAC money stuff sounded really smart.

Long odds, but he seems.... not completely dead in the water.

I kind of like Lovett or Leave It, but I wish he had guests that were more informed on policy. But Beto was fantastic.

 

[Wilsongt]

I kind of like Lovett or Leave It, but I wish he had guests that were more informed on policy. But Beto was fantastic.

He's still not cute.

*crosses arms*

 

[Chumley]

Beto O'Rourke sounded awesome on Lovett or Leave It (which is a fucking terrible show, but that's neither here nor there.) The no PAC money stuff sounded really smart.

Long odds, but he seems.... not completely dead in the water.

Lovett or Leave It is fucking embarrassing, and the absurd amount of advertising not only of sponsors but other podcasts on Pod Save America is killing my interest in it.

 

[jtb]

I can never tell if Lovett is really nervous or just drunk out of his mind when hosting Lovett or Leave It. But he says "uh" and "um" so much and his comedic timing is nonexistent compared to his Pod Save America riffs. (I laughed so hard at his North Korea/Norton antivirus quip on last Monday's show I choked on my water)

Classic case of the sidekick who couldn't hold his own as the main star.

 

[Chumley]

I can never tell if Lovett is really nervous or just drunk out of his mind when hosting Lovett or Leave It. But he says "uh" and "um" so much and his comedic timing is nonexistent compared to his Pod Save America riffs. (I laughed so hard at his North Korea/Norton antivirus quip on last Monday's show I choked on my water)

Classic case of the sidekick who couldn't hold his own as the main star.

It's just pure cringe and awkwardness.

 

[Teggy]

Warren endorses Perriello: https://twitter.com/HuffingtonPost/status/856627932797816832

Do we like Perriello? I seem to recall hearing he's not a great candidate.


Also Trump to limit impotent Canadian wood

Trey Yingst‏ @TreyYingst

BREAKING: President Trump to put a 20% tax on soft lumber entering the US from Canada
6:25 PM · Apr 24, 2017

 

[Wilsongt]

Trump signed a Holocaust remembrance thing today...

After Sean Spicer acted a fool.

Hm.

 

[CygnusXS]

British Columbia needs to be less dependent on staples exports anyways.

 

[Teggy]

Trump signed a Holocaust remembrance thing today...

After Sean Spicer acted a fool.

Hm.

Yeah, and it was some slightly adjusted wording pulled from the Holocaust Memorial web site. Not joking.

 

[whyamihere]

Do we like Perriello? I seem to recall hearing he's not a great candidate.


Also Trump to limit impotent Canadian wood

Most posters here are for Perriello (I am), kirblar is for Northam. There might be more but it's a low-key race so far.

I find him to be far superior to Northam.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Perriolo is not particularly liberal or progressive but is good at winning elections.

He did support cap and trade which was pretty good though.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Do we like Perriello? I seem to recall hearing he's not a great candidate.


Also Trump to limit impotent Canadian wood

Surely that's not something he can do unilaterally?

Like, that's gotta go through the legislature doesn't it?

Is it just something in his tax reform proposal?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Bush did same thing with lumber.

 

[jtb]

Perriolo is not particularly liberal or progressive but is good at winning elections.

He did support cap and trade which was pretty good though.

Hasn't he only won... like one election?

 

[kirblar]

Perriolo is not particularly liberal or progressive but is good at winning elections.

He did support cap and trade which was pretty good though.

Are you flipping the candidates' names in your head. Pierello has won election. (singular.) He then lost it in the Tea Party wave.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Hasn't he only won... like one election?

Yes.

But he supported Obamacare and everything liberals wanted knowing full well he probably wouldn't get re-elected. That is some good stuff.

I hope he wins, one because he is good. Two because it will satisfy the berniers.