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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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I think this central rate hike is a mistake. CPI already hit a major bump in the road in March and hasn't come back yet. We've also seen substantial employment weakness the last two months. Whats wrong with waiting until September to see if it recovers before resuming the hikes?

DCSC5IJXYAAo6fI.jpg
 

Slizeezyc

Member
So I sort of missed the Corbyn stuff while on vacation, but I feel like that's really exciting to see. He's sort of a goof and seems maybe sort of spotty on some social issues(?), but he's, like, a lefty. And he won big when he wasn't supposed to. And wasn't scared about being a lefty. I still think Brexit seems sort of odd as well, and I believe he's for it, but again, it fits in with his mindset and so he's at least consistent.

I'm more tired of the Bernie primary stuff than the Hillary won the popular vote stuff (and had real policies!), but that being said I'm over both, and so to me this is just nice to see someone who was told to neuter his lefty vibes just pitching them up and being awarded by young voters especially.

I never believe X is a blueprint for Y in another country, and I don't think what works in England will work in Alabama, but at the same time, I think it's a note to at least say "you don't have to immediately run to compromise to the right of your true beliefs" etc. to win. Maybe going hard left and staying true to it is a thing that can work, especially if Republicans stay losing and hated.

Alternatively, I know Macron was sort of seen as a betrayal of the hard left in some capacity, but maybe left-leaning policies ebb and flow to some degree depending on the country and France is looking for something different. In other words, it would be nice to get to a point where Macron is more the "right wing" choice of the spectrum and so if that's the "reactionary" response to people being unhappy with the left, it's at least safer than the shenanigans of a Trump and May and so on.
 

aTTckr

Member
Ideally Scalise makes it and gets a change of heart about gun control.

Since the event today could have ended up much, much worse (fortunately), does anyone really think such a tragedy would lead to the GOP reversing their gun control stance substantially?
 
Damn, hope he makes it

Hmm? His family posted this on Facebook
Update on the Condition of Majority Whip Steve Scalise:

This morning, at a practice for the Congressional Baseball Game, Whip Scalise was shot in the hip. He was transported to MedStar Washington Hospital Center, where he is currently undergoing surgery. He is in stable condition.

Prior to entering surgery, the Whip was in good spirits and spoke to his wife by phone. He is grateful for the brave actions of U.S. Capitol Police, first responders, and colleagues.
We ask that you keep the Whip and others harmed in this incident in your thoughts and prayers.

This office will release additional information regarding the Whip's condition as appropriate.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
The Reuters article the other night said these new (or renewed, whichever you prefer) sanctions mandate Congressional oversight. Basically, they've revoked his ability to alter, remove, or impose them unilaterally.

That's not too bad.
The ballistic missile launch by them earlier this year was a huge mistake on their part, but they have not repeated it since maybe not. Otherwise they appear to be following the terms of the agreement.
 
There could have been a major complication during surgery. There are a lot of major arteries and nerves in the area. I don't think much of Scalise as a person or politically, but I want him beaten politically not gunned down.
 
Dems get their first high-profile recruit in the Alabama governor's race, which they think they might have an outside chance on, given Bentley.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...est-6-14?t=1497465206378#update-1497465202000

Again we see the importance of a true fifty-state strategy. This woman sounds like the bluest of blue dogs, and I doubt her opinions on race would be overly liberal, given that she endorsed Sessions. But she at least has a snowball's chance to win in Alabama, especially during a wave year. Hell, she won her judgeship that way! While I'd probably disagree with her on almost every issue, I prefer her in that mansion over a Republican.

Of course, I can already envision a snag. I assume that any Democrat in Alabama needs support from black voters, the state's largest Democratic bloc. She'll therefore need to appeal to them in her campaign. If she targets black voters, though, she might alienate the white (supremacist) voters, who'll accuse her of helping those people. This catch-22 might apply in most of the deep south except perhaps Georgia. (Edwards in Louisiana only got lucky because of Vitter's corruption.)
 

Atenhaus

Member
Didn't do much for Reagan without Nancy's influence.

Reagan got started with his gun control kick (with the support of the NRA, mind you) when Governor of Cali as a response to the Panthers organizing and conducting open carry protests at the Capitol Building in Sacramento.

It was a deeply cynical and racist power play.
 

kirblar

Member
So I sort of missed the Corbyn stuff while on vacation, but I feel like that's really exciting to see. He's sort of a goof and seems maybe sort of spotty on some social issues(?), but he's, like, a lefty. And he won big when he wasn't supposed to. And wasn't scared about being a lefty. I still think Brexit seems sort of odd as well, and I believe he's for it, but again, it fits in with his mindset and so he's at least consistent.

I'm more tired of the Bernie primary stuff than the Hillary won the popular vote stuff (and had real policies!), but that being said I'm over both, and so to me this is just nice to see someone who was told to neuter his lefty vibes just pitching them up and being awarded by young voters especially.

I never believe X is a blueprint for Y in another country, and I don't think what works in England will work in Alabama, but at the same time, I think it's a note to at least say "you don't have to immediately run to compromise to the right of your true beliefs" etc. to win. Maybe going hard left and staying true to it is a thing that can work, especially if Republicans stay losing and hated.

Alternatively, I know Macron was sort of seen as a betrayal of the hard left in some capacity, but maybe left-leaning policies ebb and flow to some degree depending on the country and France is looking for something different. In other words, it would be nice to get to a point where Macron is more the "right wing" choice of the spectrum and so if that's the "reactionary" response to people being unhappy with the left, it's at least safer than the shenanigans of a Trump and May and so on.
Going as far left as possible is not inherently a good thing (economically speaking) because a number of liberal policy solutions have a lot of nasty unintended side effects. This doesn't mean the right wing is "correct" (they're not) just that you have to find a balance between regulation and leaving people free to do what they want.

Not every country is in the same place, and not every market within the same country is even in the same place. Sometimes you need deregulation (US job licensing requirements) and sometimes you need regulation (US health care).
 

Slizeezyc

Member
Going as far left as possible is not inherently a good thing (economically speaking) because a number of liberal policy solutions have a lot of nasty unintended side effects. This doesn't mean the right wing is "correct" (they're not) just that you have to find a balance between regulation and leaving people free to do what they want.

Not every country is in the same place, and not every market within the same country is even in the same place. Sometimes you need deregulation (US job licensing requirements) and sometimes you need regulation (US health care).

Yeah, again, I don't want what I said misconstrued. I think the left in France did need a re-configuring, for example. I just mean to say it's nice to see a Corbyn blow expectations out of the water and show that running from the "left" isn't something you always have to do every step of the way, especially against something as shitty as the Tory crew. Leaning into anti-austerity, leaning into anti-foreign wars, leaning into anti-police state stuff, leaning into social issues can be a benefit not a hindrance. I am a believer in a 50-state strategy etc., just that moving things left in general would be a positive.
 

dramatis

Member
In the hubbub this happened?

Nevada May Become First State To Offer Medicaid To All, Regardless Of Income
Nevadans will find out this week whether their state will become the first in the country to allow anyone to buy into Medicaid, the government health care program for the poor and disabled.

Earlier this month, Nevada's legislature, where Democrats hold the majority, passed a "Medicaid-for-all" bill, and it's now on Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval's desk awaiting his signature or veto. If he does not act by Friday, it will automatically become law.
"If the expansion goes away, I really think this is going to be a viable option for those who lose coverage," Sprinkle says. He estimates about 300,000 Nevadans may enroll.

He says that if the Republican health care bill becomes law, people could use the tax credits in the bill to buy into Medicaid. And if it doesn't, they could still use their tax credits and subsidies from the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, to buy in.
 

kirblar

Member
Yeah, again, I don't want what I said misconstrued. I think the left in France did need a re-configuring, for example. I just mean to say it's nice to see a Corbyn blow expectations out of the water and show that running from the "left" isn't something you always have to do every step of the way, especially against something as shitty as the Tory crew. Leaning into anti-austerity, leaning into anti-foreign wars, leaning into anti-police state stuff, leaning into social issues can be a benefit not a hindrance. I am a believer in a 50-state strategy etc., just that moving things left in general would be a positive.
The thing about the UK election is that it's complicated and very hard to boil down to a single factor. Labour's actual policy positions are actually relatively boilerplate, and I think there's a real argument to be made that in some areas (the upper-class ones) that people were voting for Labour in spite of Corbyn, rather than because of him.

They've already moved left. Massively. The policies that are the "center" today on the liberal side are far to the left of where they were 20-30 years ago.
 
The new Russian sanctions bill requires congressional approval to be lifted. It's really freaking depressing that this was considered a necessary part of the legislation. C'mon Trump, veto it. I dare you. Make yourself look like an even bigger puppet.
 

Slizeezyc

Member
The thing about the UK election is that it's complicated and very hard to boil down to a single factor. Labour's actual policy positions are actually relatively boilerplate, and I think there's a real argument to be made that in some areas (the upper-class ones) that people were voting for Labour in spite of Corbyn, rather than because of him.

They've already moved left. Massively. The policies that are the "center" today on the liberal side are far to the left of where they were 20-30 years ago.

So is it just Lib Dems and the Blairites fucking up and finally dying like they sort of had to for their many goofs more than Labour running shit? (Beyond the obvious misplay by May and the Tory wing)

Also, one other thing I'd like to add as that whatever you want to say about the Manifesto, at least it was something to point to beyond saying "the other person is a fuck, don't go for him/her." Running on more ideas in the forefront seemed to serve him well.
 
The new Russian sanctions bill requires congressional approval to be lifted. It's really freaking depressing that this was considered a necessary part of the legislation. C'mon Trump, veto it. I dare you. Make yourself look like an even bigger puppet.

It has to be approved by the House before Trump, which will give us a nice window over who is playing ball with Putin.

For the record, the only two Senators to not approve this were Rand Paul and Mike Lee.
 

Slizeezyc

Member
It has to be approved by the House before Trump, which will give us a nice window over who is playing ball with Putin.

For the record, the only two Senators to not approve this were Rand Paul and Mike Lee.

The Libertarian philosophy of let other countries do what they want even applies to this?
 
Looking at gubernatorial races in 2018 I think it's really important to try and hold PA while flipping WI and MI.

Those three states added to Clinton's EV total would have given us the presidency and their going for Trump can almost be described as a fluke. Winning all three of them would be a huge confidence booster for 2020.

Wolf looks favored and we have a decent field in Michigan, but the Wisconsin Democratic Party really needs to get their shit together, especially against a dumbass like Walker.
 
Looking at gubernatorial races in 2018 I think it's really important to try and hold PA while flipping WI and MI.

Those three states added to Clinton's EV total would have given us the presidency and their going for Trump can almost be described as a fluke. Winning all three of them would be a huge confidence booster for 2020.

Wolf looks favored and we have a decent field in Michigan, but the Wisconsin Democratic Party really needs to get their shit together, especially against a dumbass like Walker.

Walker's failed presidential run could really hurt him in 2018, especially if Trump stays as unpopular as he is. "How can you expect the first man beaten by Donald Trump to stand up for Wisconsin" has a nice ring to it.

But yeah the Wisconsin dems need to get their shit together, bigly. Not sure what's wrong there but clearly they're fucked up.
 

Holmes

Member
If we're talking gubernatorial gains, Dems need to pick up the following:
NV, NM, CO, FL, IA, WI, MI, IL, NJ, NH, ME, KS and some of OH, GA, MD and MA.
 
Looking at gubernatorial races in 2018 I think it's really important to try and hold PA while flipping WI and MI.

Those three states added to Clinton's EV total would have given us the presidency and their going for Trump can almost be described as a fluke. Winning all three of them would be a huge confidence booster for 2020.

Wolf looks favored and we have a decent field in Michigan, but the Wisconsin Democratic Party really needs to get their shit together, especially against a dumbass like Walker.

Never underestimate the incompetence of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. That race should be one of our top targets and given Walker's middling approvals and favorable midterm dynamics we should have no shortage of talented, ambitious candidates looking to get into the race. Also, they really need to recruit a better candidate to take on Ryan. It'll be an uphill battle, but some nut from Ohio takes the pickup chances from low to nonexistent.

Walker's failed presidential run could really hurt him in 2018, especially if Trump stays as unpopular as he is. "How can you expect the first man beaten by Donald Trump to stand up for Wisconsin" has a nice ring to it.

But yeah the Wisconsin dems need to get their shit together, bigly. Not sure what's wrong there but clearly they're fucked up.

Wisconsin Dems have been trash for at least as long as I've been following state politics. From candidate recruiting to messaging, they're just abysmal.
 
Though I hate to be pessimistic, I assume Wisconsin will be difficult at the gubernatorial level. They elected, shielded from a recall, and then reelected a union-busting Republican - you know, someone antithetical to the state's progressive history and foundation of organized labor. It seems to have changed far more drastically than Michigan and Pennsylvania.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Looking at gubernatorial races in 2018 I think it's really important to try and hold PA while flipping WI and MI.

Those three states added to Clinton's EV total would have given us the presidency and their going for Trump can almost be described as a fluke. Winning all three of them would be a huge confidence booster for 2020.

Wolf looks favored and we have a decent field in Michigan, but the Wisconsin Democratic Party really needs to get their shit together, especially against a dumbass like Walker.

If we're talking gubernatorial gains, Dems need to pick up the following:
NV, NM, CO, FL, IA, WI, MI, IL, NJ, NH, ME, KS and some of OH, GA, MD and MA.

AZ by that one poll looks competitive and don't rule out OK. What about SD? D's haven't won there since 72 unless Normin is unbeatable
 
Arizona looks competitive too and don't rule out OK. What about SD? D's haven't won there since 72.

Yes, rule out OK. The state Democratic Party has virtually no power and seemingly no ability to get its shit together. We also have a high concentration of racist, homophobic, Bible-thumping neanderthals who would sooner eat their own testicles than vote Democratic.

And before you mention Brad Henry, the 2010 Tea Party wave caused this state to lose its collective mind. Democrats have virtually become the enemies, assailants of family values. Any semblance of moderation or bipartisanship has disappeared.
 
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