balladofwindfishes
Member
R by 2 or 3
People that enthused would have voted for him weeks ago
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
- Start date
- Status
R by 2 or 3
People that enthused would have voted for him weeks ago
whyamihere
Banned
I still can't believe people actually believe this.
Like, I get we want to think the world is a horrible place and everything is awful and Trump and Brexit and norms!, but, honestly. Don't like your overt pessimism get in the way of realism.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Thanks for the comments.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I'm thinking the media should have sat on the leak for a couple of weeks.
It was not in the immediate public interest to release it that quickly, and a couple of weeks buffer (the first couple of weeks of an investigation are most important) would have lessened the impact.
I'm open to hearing an argument saying they should not have waited.
NihonTiger90
Member
I don't think the number is that big, though. I expect most people who are voting for Gianforte today are voting for him because he has an R next to his name, plain and simple.
They absolutely should have waited, and probably would have if asked to (see laptop intel city location). but it wasn't our intel so we didn't care to give caveats of what should be protected for now. I haven't seen any indication if it was IC or admin leak. Curious which myself.
whyamihere
Banned
Yes, obviously. I do not think there is a net positive of undecided voters now voting for Gianforte because he punched someone, and if you truly believe that, that's where wild pessimism overtakes realism.
But you also didn't say that it was just because there was an R there at first.
terrible memes, no spirit to them
Fenderputty
Banned
The DAG gave Mueller the ability to expand the investigation beyond Russian collusion, if Mueller found something while looking into Russian collusion. Mueller requested finCEN data almost immediately. The kushner stuff doesn't necessarily even need to be related to Russia, could be other illegal activities that were found while investigating
The liberal activists are centering around this tweet regarding AHCA.
https://twitter.com/TopherSpiro/status/867864915595239424
Any ideas, folks? None of the GOP Senators seem to have Town Halls scheduled. (And I'm in a State with two Democratic Senators.)
https://twitter.com/TopherSpiro/status/867864915595239424
Any ideas, folks? None of the GOP Senators seem to have Town Halls scheduled. (And I'm in a State with two Democratic Senators.)
NihonTiger90
Member
Correct, that was my mistake not to indicate that at first. I think ultimately, the incident is going to move more undecideds into Quist's camp, or deter some to go Libertarian, but I don't think there's enough of them to really move the needle at this point.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Is there a site like predictit/as good as predictit that isn't completely overrun with alt-right, racist commenters?
whyamihere
Banned
this is a dumb fairly tale.
I mean, we need to keep the pressure on Senators, but. Why would someone at CAP know this?
This has nothing to do with pessimism and everything to do with paying attention.
Republicans have had boners for strongmen for YEARS and this goes beyond Trump. This is the party that can claim a cowboy actor, The Terminator, and a WWF wrestler among their ranks. This is the party that idolizes gun ownership. The party that idolizes militarism. The party that went to Trump rallies and were whipped into a frenzy whenever Trump insinuated violence against the media and his detractors. The party whose rallying chant last year was LOCK HER UP. The party that can count among its members actual politicians who publicly advocated violence against the sitting Democratic president and the Democratic nominee last year. I could go on.
Is it really all that surprising that Republicans would be motivated by one of their own running for office and body-slamming a liberal FAKE NEWS pansy? Not if your eyes are open.
I think it's better to be on a site like PredictIt that leans far right. Way better for your money. I mean, assuming the world doesn't continue on its path to insanity.
whyamihere
Banned
TestOfTide
Banned
Except if those people were such a huge amount, then why are MSNBC and CNN starting to beat Fox in ratings.
...what does that have to do with anything in my post?
NihonTiger90
Member
So, just a little hopium for you guys: this seat is up again in 2018. Whoever wins is going to have to turn around and almost immediately start getting ready for that.
And if the Montana SoS is fielding calls about people trying to change their vote last-minute, perhaps there will be some buyer's remorse?
And if the Montana SoS is fielding calls about people trying to change their vote last-minute, perhaps there will be some buyer's remorse?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
i literally laughed out loud reading this
Fenderputty
Banned
How many crazies do you think fox is losing to breitbart and worse? I've seen plenty of far right sentiment that Fox is gone because the kids are taking over
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
As if we needed more proof how disgusting Republicans are.
Congressman from Colorado's 6th has made no comment on the Montana assault, but he did tweet this today.
Congressman from Colorado's 6th has made no comment on the Montana assault, but he did tweet this today.
TestOfTide
Banned
Because if they were as many as you are claiming they are, Fox wouldn't be currently struggling to keep up with CNN and MSNBC.
Fox is literally the only cable network where Trump fanatics can watch people heavily suck up to Trump, so if they are failing to CNN and MSNBC, it's because people like us far outnumber them.
Except Breitbart doesn't have a cable channel yet. Right fox is literally the only channel that Trump fans can turn to if they want to watch people suck up to Trump.
But her mom's emails!
Again, huh? You're not responding to my post.
I was making a point about Republicans being drawn to strongmen. Fox's ratings has nothing to do with that.
Of course there are more of us. Where do I argue otherwise?
This is ignoring that the alt-right, a pretty big base in the GOP, is mostly young men who get their news online
Basileus777
Member
Are they actually a big base? Did they ever watch cable news?
whyamihere
Banned
Trump got a plurality of the Republican primary, a minority of the total vote, has plummeting "strong approval" ratings, we're supposed to believe that Gianforte body checking a reporter is supposed to have a net positive effect on Gianforte's vote share?
Please.
Please.
Fenderputty
Banned
I'm not crediting all of the loss of viewership to extreme nutters, but I don't think you can attribute all of their losses on the slurping on teflon dons shit either
TestOfTide
Banned
Like yeah, the deplorable ones are drawn to it, but you make it sound like 50% of the population is enthusiastic about what gianforte did.
The kind of people that would be enthusiastic about what gianforte did are a dwindling population.
Fox's dip can absolutely be attributed to the fact that more and more cable news watchers are not looking for what fox is selling.
I dunno, but I'd at least bet an active member of the alt-right is going to be more likely to vote in a special/midterm election than a moderate conservative
Trump also:
Bragged about sexually assaulting a woman.
Constantly insinuated violence against his detractors and Hillary Clinton.
Insulted several war veterans.
Made "bomb the hell out of them" a central pillar of his foreign policy.
Has made jeering the media such a constant at his rallies that Katy Tur had to be escorted to her car by secret service.
The man was machismo run wild and committed several acts that pretty much everyone thought would count him out, but he built up enough support to become President. But you think THIS is where Republicans will draw the line?
TestOfTide
Banned
Except a very significant chunk of Trump voters were literally only voting for Trump because they bought into all the antiHillary propaganda, which meant they LITERALLY thought Hillary got away with murder.
Combine that with the facts that Trump was successful as getting his fanbase to turn out in high numbers and the democrats were struggling to get their own base to turn out like they did for Obama.
And even with all that, Trump BARELY won and lost the Popular Vote.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Of course there are Republicans who will cheer this sort of thing on. The question is how many of them are there who wouldn't have voted for Gianforte otherwise who now will because of this. I don't see it outnumbering people who were going to vote for him otherwise but are now staying home/voting Libertarian.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
So another stolen judiciary seat. Lower courts but still. Fucking hell.
We'll soon find out.
But as someone from The Terminator State,I won't be surprised.
Basileus777
Member
We probably won't actually. I doubt there will be a ton of money spent on public polling in the aftermath of this race to see what the effect was.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
No problem. It was a good opportunity to get more clear on the whole situation myself.
I do want to be clear that when I said they didn't pass a budget resolution until January, I mean January of 2017, so it's easy to see how a budget resolution for the tax reform reconciliation being passed january of 2018, which I believe only requires 50+1 votes. But just as democrats proclaimed relative victory for the 2017 budget, i'd expect them to claim relative victory over the 2018 budget should the Republicans follow the exact same schedule.
And there's only one reconciliation bill per budget allowed, so they can't delay AHCA to the next budget, unless they want to pass both tax reform and AHCA in one huge mega unpopular bill.
Box of Kittens
Banned
There's also the complicating factor of most of the votes having been cast before the assault occurred.
That's the silver lining in all of this. For how qualified Hillary Clinton was, she was definitely the wrong candidate for how low information campaigns in the USA are. At least Australian election campaigns have political parties try and sell some sort of policy. The only "policy" I really remember hearing about through very mainstream USA media (so CNN, MSNBC, Fox) was the goddamn wall.
When I saw that Ernie Johnson, from Inside the NBA, claim that he couldn't vote for Hillary Clinton because "she wasn't trustworthy", it actually dawned on me just how effective the whole baseless EMAILS EMAILS EMAILS bullshit was at making her look more corrupt than Donald Trump. Not because Ernie Johnson's political opinions mean anything but because a lot of people were successfully convinced that Hillary Clinton was, at the very best, just as bad as Donald Trump.
whyamihere
Banned
Exactly.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Last time we speculated about what people would or wouldn't find utterly offensive, Hillary almost lost Virginia.
Basileus777
Member
But that never happened.
I miss the simpler times.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Hillary Clinton had so much baggage and scandal around her that it helped mitigate the awfulness of her opponent.
This is what some people seem to fail to recognize. Trump was no generic Republic but neither was Clinton a generic Dem.
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