ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Was this the EO was mention before a couple of days ago or is this something different?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
- Start date
- Status
I keep seeing this wishful thinking that this monster won't pass the Senate. The same Senate that confirmed Jeff Sessions.
Killing it in the House is the only way it dies. Before it gets to live.
McConnell will pass it. 50 plus VP Pence. Collins and Murkowsky will be the 'No's'.
Killing it in the House is the only way it dies. Before it gets to live.
McConnell will pass it. 50 plus VP Pence. Collins and Murkowsky will be the 'No's'.
Great, not brining back lifetime limits was the one thing this shitty bill had going for it
benicillin
Banned
Confirming Jeff Sessions and a poisonous health care bill are not even remotely similar.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This seems to be another EO that doesn't really do anything when you look at it closely. Just reducing the enforcement of a law that already exists, which is something I don't think he even needed an EO to do since he's the executive.
The senate wasn't going to not confirm their own. It doesn't really matter who it was. He's a senator, the senate approves him completely. I'm surprised they even held a hearing. That has nothing to do with this bill or the process by which it will or will not be passed.
Ah, the good old separation of religion and politics
EDIT: ah ok, it is changing back the rules so that they can do it while keeping that, didnt read the link
benicillin
Banned
Probably because he couldn't sign the one legalizing discrimination that he wanted to. Eagerly awaiting the NYT article where they thank Ivanka for changing his mind.
TestOfTide
Banned
Plus the GOP can only afford to lose 2 senate votes.
This bill needs to die in the house or else the HFC has Paul Ryan by the balls.
Best Case scenario is this dies in the house because then it proves they literally can't change healthcare without the help of Dems.
Why are so many people just assuming it will die in the Senate? I haven't seen a convincing argument for this.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
So this is the same one that was mention this week?
There isn't one outside of pointing to issues that can be fixed.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
I mean, do you know how the Senate works
I get that this may be the likeliest path. The bill is amended in senate to be more palatable, then sent back to the House whereupon the HFC runs, Dems vote no and 216 can't be obtained. I don't think this path is guaranteed though.
I would like to think I'm reasonably educated on it.
Why will this version of this bill die in the Senate? If it's electoral pressure, that would have less sway on the Senate, there are less GOP Senators up in swing states next year. I think they are much safer than the House members who have to lift this.
GoldenEye 007
Member
People are yet again assuming the GOP will do the right thing. If this is reconciliation, then only a simply majority is needed to pass.
If not, then there are enough Democrats to stop it - assuming rules aren't changed by the GOP again.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Because individual senators have more power than individual house members, especially when the margin for GOP control in the Senate is much smaller
Because there is no guarantee that 50+Pence will work to pass this, let alone a guarantee that 50 senators will even support it
Because even if something passes the Senate, it will most likely be very different than the House bill
Because there are irreconcilable differences between the far right of the GOP and the more establishment members, as has been clear the past 6 years
Like, look at how the ACA itself was passed and the compromises that were made because of the Senate. Now imagine that the Democratic Party in the House in 2009/10 had an equivalent of the Freedom Caucus.
GoldenEye 007
Member
Except enough moderate House GOP members seem to be jumping on board here. Even though this bill is trash. That is a marked change from last time.
You're putting a lot of faith into the goodwill of the GOP.
Which GOP senators do you think would vote no on this?
InsaneZero
Member
Nobody here puts faith into the goodwill of the GOP.
They're putting faith into the political calculus that currently judges this move as political suicide.
Unless I missed it, I don't see McConnell signaling that this bill is DOA in the Senate.
I see two paths;
1. Bill is amended and sent back to House.
2. McConnell just passes it 50+1 via reconciliation, because at that point sending back to House if bill is moved left again is certain death. Also increases chances of missing reconciliation window.
I'll admit 1 is more likely than 2 but I just see people outright dismissing 2 with a lot of wishful thinking.
I think the only constant I've ever seen is the GOP falls in line. One way or the other. I mean the currently winning argument for whipping is that they just need to show they can win. They don't give a shit about the substance of the bill.
I see two paths;
1. Bill is amended and sent back to House.
2. McConnell just passes it 50+1 via reconciliation, because at that point sending back to House if bill is moved left again is certain death. Also increases chances of missing reconciliation window.
I'll admit 1 is more likely than 2 but I just see people outright dismissing 2 with a lot of wishful thinking.
I think the only constant I've ever seen is the GOP falls in line. One way or the other. I mean the currently winning argument for whipping is that they just need to show they can win. They don't give a shit about the substance of the bill.
benicillin
Banned
Also because the senate is elected to represent (and answer to) an entire state, not just a small gerrymandered district where they're safe just for voting yes.
Not yet, House votes at 8:30pm US East if my reading of the agenda on www.house.gov is right. Then it goes to the senate.
Pandora012
Member
It's funny how Republicans kept talking about how Dems did their healthcare bill behind doors. Yet we are getting a new vote today, without the public knowing what's in it and without a CBO score.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
More than just Collins and Murkowski. I'm sure Heller and Flake are concerned for their own jobs, for example.
If they tone down the bill to appeal to more moderate Senators, do Ted Cruz/Mike Lee/Rand Paul/etc even vote yes, especially when the CBO score comes out? It's definitely no sure thing.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
If it goes through, it'll be fucking worse than that. Insurers can bounce people off even if they have it through their employers.
TestOfTide
Banned
Flake and Heller voted for Betsy fucking Devos.
benicillin
Banned
Which, to my understanding, will take quite some time because the senate is actually going to do their job.
The bill is gonna be around for a couple of weeks before it has any chance at getting passed, and that's if it goes well I think.
Poodlestrike
Banned
That it's suicide, or that they care about political calculus?
I wonder how much of the GOP willingness to vote on this disaster is down to their resentment over the "its literally impossible" narrative? That everyone and their mom was dunking on them for their failure to repeal had to grate.
RustyNails
Member
Senate will not rubberstamp a house bill unless it's a reconciliation bill, meaning a conference of senators and house members work on it and approve it. This usually happens after the senate sends an amended bill back to the house. Turtle may be vile but he understands this too. The facts that motivate the fickle house members are different from the facts that motivate senators.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Literally no one besides Democrats care about cabinet nomination votes. There won't be ads in 2018 about how Flake and Heller voted for DeVos. But if they vote on a healthcare bill like the one in the House, there certainly will be ads - and from more than just Democratic organizations. AARP, for one.
Maybe Flake and Heller will go full crazy and vote for whatever insane bill McConnell puts up, but I doubt it. McConnell is too good at his job to let them do that. Not sure he is good enough to balance the demands of Heller/Flake/Collins/Murkowski with the demands of Cruz/Lee/Paul.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
What makes you say that? It's one of like 5 states that have flags that wouldn't stand out to me as anything weird alongside the flags of most other major countries. I guess single letters are more common to sports, but a c is a lot more low key than most letters.
Worst has to be Maryland. Just a chaotic mass of random shapes and colors as if the design was purposefully trying to make you go crazy by looking at it.
I'm married to a Marylander and they'll eviscerate you for this. No state uses their flag as much as Maryland.
The latter, yes.
Poodlestrike
Banned
What about the bill needs to be changed to meet the threshold for reconciliation to work?
CBO score will be out in a week or two. Senate will likely take longer than that to send something back to the House, though by that point, I assume whatever revised bill the Senate produces will be different from the current bill that the CBO is scoring.
It's possible -- though I don't know how possible -- that the Senate-revised bill gets passed by the House and onto Trump's desk before the CBO can score that version.
CBO score will be out in a week or two. Senate will likely take longer than that to send something back to the House, though by that point, I assume whatever revised bill the Senate produces will be different from the current bill that the CBO is scoring.
It's possible -- though I don't know how possible -- that the Senate-revised bill gets passed by the House and onto Trump's desk before the CBO can score that version.
Agree with everything in this, except I think when it goes back to the House they won't kill it.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Generally, it would be the leader of the party to step in say "guys, this is really bad and will cause us to lose seats, let's slow down and take another look at it" but in this case that's Donald Trump, so that mechanism has already failed.
What's pretty scary, other than the actual bill, is the precedent this sets. No longer will president's try to push for large, long term improvement bills if the opposition will just destroy it the minute they get the chance.
What's pretty scary, other than the actual bill, is the precedent this sets. No longer will president's try to push for large, long term improvement bills if the opposition will just destroy it the minute they get the chance.
Have you been to TX?
Poodlestrike
Banned
It's worth noting that the Senate Republicans who were shitting on the House bill before -- Cotton, Cruz, Paul, Lee, etc. -- are all quiet now. I think they realize the House bill is DOA in the Senate but would rather have a bill sent to them and workshop it than nothing at all.
Lol and yet they'll tweak it and all vote for it.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Remember when Rand Paul went on a scavenger hunt to find the bill?
lol
lol
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Reason I'm not worried about the Senate is that if the CBO score does in fact come out before the Senate votes on it, the damages to Medicare and employee based coverage will be impossible to overcome. I'm betting instead of the 24 million uninsured with the first bill, we're going to have well over 30 million. And I want every House GOP member who got on board with the "team" to suffer for their vote. I really hope that happens.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This bill passing the Senate could be one of the biggest political turning points in recent history. The damage to Americans in general would be staggering, and the damage to republican political control could follow that path.
This isn't just tax cuts for the rich. This is active attack on poor and middle-income Americans.
This isn't just tax cuts for the rich. This is active attack on poor and middle-income Americans.
IggyChooChoo
Member
The one thing that gives me hope that the bill will die is the fact that the process can't be rushed. If we have, say, 3 weeks to scream aboht this bill's consequences -- especially if that crazy employer plan stuff stays in! -- then it's going to fail at some point. Time is our best weapon here.
- Status