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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
sphagnum said:
I don't see the big deal if Ossoff loses by a slim margin. Isnt it a heavily R district? It would still be in line with surging Dem numbers that would flip contentious districts, just not hard R districts. It would still force the GOP To spend to defend I'm otherwise solid red areas as well.
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We need SOME demonstration that the behavior of the GOP will have electoral consequences for the GOP congresshits in office today. If after the AHCA, the Russia stuff, Trump being Trump, etc., we can't tilt a "lean conservative" district, then really who exactly can we credibly turn? They might as well do whatever.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
It's not super safe. We need to win there in 2018 just to maintain the senate seats we have

Regardless of incumbency advantage, The house candidate that runs there in 18 needs to figure out how to get the same voters Tester gets.

This also isn't some specifically gerrymandered district. It's state wide in a state we've won at multiple different levels different times before. Needs to be one of the heaviest contested races in 2 years from now.
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I actually know a bit about Montana politics. I lived there when Tester and Schweitzer won and just moved back. Tester (barely) won because Burns was profoundly unpopular and was caught up in the Jack Abramoff scandal. That scandal particularly hurt Burns in Billings, which let Tester squeak by.

Schweitzer won the governor's race because Martz was running the state into the ground Kansas-style. She fucked the budget, hard. Bullock was able to take the baton from there.

Under the current climate, for a Democrat to win state-wide, a Republican has to really, really screw the pooch. It's possible and it's definitely something that the DNCC should put some resources toward, but this was absolutely a super safe seat.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
RustyNails said:
I missed this one. Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking
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Yeah, I've been spreading this around in some local Dem circles since we're such a big Trump state. You'll never get these peoples' votes but depressing their turnout is key. And it looks super doable. I want every Trump voter to start quoting the woman from that recent article that interviewed Trump voters when she said that she's just stopped engaging in politics.

NeoXChaos said:
So I take it the reason the House has been GOP for the last 20 out of 24 years come 2019 is that the coalition that kept Democrats in power for the previous 40 is now in Republicans hands correct?

Now with this new coalition kirblar likes to talk about as the future will that one allow us to have a hold on the House irregardless of "wave elections" for x number of years or we just don't know?

*Incumbency/gerrymandering plays some role in this since 1954.
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I'm unsure. I'd like to read a more detailed analysis of the control of the House by Dems in the last 60 years to see how much of that was actually Democratic since a shit ton of those seats were dixiecrats who didn't really contribute much to our platform. It's why I hate reading those "Dems lost so much state control!" articles since they almost never account for places like Mississippi (where we had a Dem state legislature for our entire state history until 2011 but I don't think anybody would consider MS a stronghold of left-wing politics).
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Ossoff also has some considerable talent and I don't want to lose him to the political wilderness like Kander. The ads he's running are incredible.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Just in case anybody wanted to remember what it was like to have a leader actually stand up to Putin:

@BraddJaffy
Macron said this today while standing literally right next to Putin. Damn.
http://apne.ws/2rOizND
DBAZi7jWsAAukcw.jpg


You can watch Putin squirm a bit in the video
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
royalan said:
The thing I don't understand about that article is Taibbi mentions the Montana race while making the point that Democrats need "a new message" and need to do better speaking to the poor, sad, lonely and racist WWC...

But isn't the Montana race the perfect example of that not working?

Joy Reid made this point on her show yesterday. In Montana we just had a perfect petri dish of a race. A district dominated by the WWC. Very few minorities getting in the way with pesky calls for distracting things like rights and fair treatment. A candidate endorsed by Bernie Sanders and running on a mostly healthcare and economic message...and he still lost. Sure, it was a LOT closer than it should have been for a Republican, but that can just as easily be attributed to Trump and Gianforte's own unpopularity.

Sandersism still has no major victories under its belt. So why are people still advocating throwing the baby out with the bath water and going all-in on a strategy that, so far, has proven time and time again to be a losing one for Democrats?
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I would split Montana in half honestly. West Montana was actually fairly receptive to the message. It was east Montana that rejected it.

RustyNails said:
I missed this one. Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking


But a win is needed to turn the media narrative. The new narrative must be that Trump will destroy GOP's chances for midterms
Click to expand...

Like I've been saying. Death by a thousand cuts will be Trump's downfall just like it was Hillary's downfall.

And the best part is that Fox is getting hurt by this too, which means Fox's influence is shrinking.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
I'm unsure. I'd like to read a more detailed analysis of the control of the House by Dems in the last 60 years to see how much of that was actually Democratic since a shit ton of those seats were dixiecrats who didn't really contribute much to our platform. It's why I hate reading those "Dems lost so much state control!" articles since they almost never account for places like Mississippi (where we had a Dem state legislature for our entire state history until 2011 but I don't think anybody would consider MS a stronghold of left-wing politics).
Click to expand...

Right. People often fail to differentiate between a numerical majority and an ideological majority. Democrats dominated Congress until the '90s in raw numbers, but during those years they had competing ideological factions and internecine conflicts. You cite perhaps the most famous example: the conservative southern Dixiecrats, who largely became Republican starting with the Southern Strategy and ending with the Tea Party, and the liberals in the northeast and west. Reagan never had a Republican House but still managed to pass legislation because the Dixiecrats supported some of his agenda. At times we lacked that ideological majority despite the numbers.

Ironically, I think the current degree of polarization will help us achieve an ideological majority when we regain Congress. The Tea Party pretty much erased the vestiges of moderation by shooting the Blue Dogs and the moderate Republicans. Democrats have moved farther left, Republicans farther right, to the point where moderates would struggle to get elected. Consequently, any future Dem Congress will have both kinds of majority; they'll be more likely to vote in unison and avoid public option-esque debacles.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
If we do control the House, Senate and Presidency come 2020, is it possible for us to push through DC and maybe Puerto Rican statehood? That'd do wonders for our Senate chances going forward.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Basileus777 said:
Isn't DC statehood a constitutional issue?
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Yes, I think. The Constitution mandates the existence of a federal district to house the government. Making DC a state would require amending the Constitution. The blue states would ratify immediately but the reds would refuse. Probably a lost cause. (Also, if you made DC a state, you might have to create another district somewhere, rendering the whole exercise pointless.)

Admitting new states, however, falls under Congress' discretion, so a Democratic Congress would likely be amenable to Puerto Rican statehood.

EDIT: Upon further reflection, I really have no idea.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
On the bright side of D.C. statehood never happening, our flag won't be fucked up

51 stars would give me daily OCD attacks. 50 is such a perfect number
 
K

kess

Member
Autodidact said:
I hate to sound snarky, but reading the OT sometimes reminds me how little people know about our government and international relations. Trump's every move (or Tweet) seems to elicit cries of existential despair. "He's destroying our country!" they wail... despite the fact that he and his Congress have passed no meaningful legislation and made no irreversible changes. If Ossoff wins next month, the Republicans will be too scared to try anything too extreme, effectively paralyzing legislation. Barring another justice's death, we have the same Supreme Court as before Scalia's death. And then we have the Russia investigation that looks set to generate at least one headline a day for the foreseeable future.

The Merkel thread has people predicting the EU will leave us and defect to China when we still have the largest economy and military in the world. The latter seems unlikely to change under any president, and the former won't change unless we have another crisis - in which case the rest of the world will suffer, too. Yes, the other countries perceive us as stupid, and rightfully so, but they won't abandon us en masse. Yes, Trump has certainly eroded our soft power and perhaps accelerated the loss of superpower status, but I think our hegemony will outlast his presidency.

I mean, I acknowledge the damage he's inflicted to our reputation, and I fear the damage he COULD wreak if he gets his budget or policies passed. But now, I just can't bring myself to wallow in angst about a dimestore Berlusconi (the most apt comparison, I think) with abysmal approval ratings and a penchant for creating his own problems. Some sane voice in OT mentioned, and I agree, that he WANTS us to see him as a powerful, unstoppable strongman. Let's not give him the satisfaction.

Tell me you have full confidence in me if you disagree.
Click to expand...

Not to devalue any of your points, which are soundly and rationally argued, but Trump not enacting policy is small consolation because inaction is something that will still harm us in the long run, either by entropy or active intent. The denigration of an independent civil service, neglect to fill governmental posts, and an active, even willful contempt to agreed law are very bad things for social cohesion.

Trump doesn't need to aim for the rocks and shoals, the ship is still being pulled by greater forces that are less obvious but more perilous in the long term.
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
Puerto Rico wouldn't necessarily be guaranteed blue seats (which is also why it's more likely to happen)

Their current Governor is a Republican, so was the Governor from 09-13. Their current representation in Congress (Resident Commissioner) is also a Republican.

Things would likely change once they became a state though. The status of Puerto Rico is basically what differentiates the parties there now, so if that was no longer a question there would be a major shakeup.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
You know, if we really want Putin to behave, maybe we should stop putting missile sites in Poland and Romania, breaking the pact that ended the Cold War.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
excelsiorlef said:
Some of the left would hate him.
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Some on the left would hate any canidate the DNC elects, regardless of the vote counts.

Spoiled Milk said:
You know, if we really want Putin to behave, maybe we should stop putting missile sites in Poland and Romania, breaking the pact that ended the Cold War.
Click to expand...

When did we put them there?
Before or after Georgia?
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Carpe Libertatem said:
DC statehood will never happen

It'd probably sooner be given back to MD/VA than become its own state
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The Virginia part was already given back. DC was originally a four-sided shape that took land equally from both sides, but Arlington/Alexandria was ceded back to Virginia.

I mean, we had a full-scale amendment to make sure that DC residents could vote for President, we can get an amendment to re-designate it as a state, with an agreement that Congress retains absolute sovereignty over federally-owned property within DC.
 
T

Trouble

Banned
SatelliteOfLove said:
"Can you like, come over here and be our president, too?"
Click to expand...

He'd have to shirtless oil wrestle Trudeau first and the winner would be president.

Ogodei said:
The Virginia part was already given back. DC was originally a four-sided shape that took land equally from both sides, but Arlington/Alexandria was ceded back to Virginia.

I mean, we had a full-scale amendment to make sure that DC residents could vote for President, we can get an amendment to re-designate it as a state, with an agreement that Congress retains absolute sovereignty over federally-owned property within DC.
Click to expand...

The easiest way to properly enfranchise DC residents would be to make it part of Maryland. I don't think Maryland has been terribly keen on that idea, though.

E: It would mean a representative with actual voting rights in the house, so obviously Republicans wouldn't go for it.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Autodidact said:
Yes, I think. The Constitution mandates the existence of a federal district to house the government. Making DC a state would require amending the Constitution. The blue states would ratify immediately but the reds would refuse. Probably a lost cause. (Also, if you made DC a state, you might have to create another district somewhere, rendering the whole exercise pointless.)

Admitting new states, however, falls under Congress' discretion, so a Democratic Congress would likely be amenable to Puerto Rican statehood.

EDIT: Upon further reflection, I really have no idea.
Click to expand...
I think DC residents care more about having representation than whether or not they might give Democrats a political edge.
 
S

SomewhatGroovy

Banned
Trump is good at making his base think he looks strong. There is a narrative that he has been calling world leaders out but when you look at said leaders, these are people who pose little economic repurcussions to our own. This is is days after he smiled through his ass at Saudi billionaires too.
 
F

Fox318

Member
SomewhatGroovy said:
Trump is good at making his base think he looks strong. There is a narrative that he has been calling world leaders out but when you look at said leaders, these are people who pose little economic repurcussions to our own. This is is days after he smiled through his ass at Saudi billionaires too.
Click to expand...

People see the world through the lens they choose to look through.

Look at the front pages of The Huffington Post and FoxNews right now.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Trouble said:
He'd have to shirtless oil wrestle Trudeau first and the winner would be president.



The easiest way to properly enfranchise DC residents would be to make it part of Maryland. I don't think Maryland has been terribly keen on that idea, though.

E: It would mean a representative with actual voting rights in the house, so obviously Republicans wouldn't go for it.
Click to expand...

Marylanders already claim DC as one of their cities, and taking more of it in would push a blue state even bluer. MD wouldn't elect a statewide Republican again.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
The Coat of Arms Said ‘Integrity.’ Now It Says ‘Trump.’

tSv34XE.jpg
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At the Trump National Golf Club outside Washington, which hosted the Senior P.G.A. Championship this weekend, the president’s coat of arms is everywhere — the sign out front, the pro shop, even the exercise room.

The regal emblem, used at President Trump’s golf courses across the United States, sports three lions and two chevrons on a shield, below a gloved hand gripping an arrow.
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The British are known to take matters of heraldry seriously, and Mr. Trump’s American coat of arms belongs to another family. It was granted by British authorities in 1939 to Joseph Edward Davies, the third husband of Marjorie Merriweather Post, the socialite who built the Mar-a-Lago resort that is now Mr. Trump’s cherished getaway.

In the United States, the Trump Organization took Mr. Davies’s coat of arms for its own, making one small adjustment — replacing the word “Integritas,” Latin for integrity, with “Trump.”

Joseph D. Tydings, a Democrat and former United States senator from Maryland who is the grandson of Mr. Davies, learned that Mr. Trump was using the emblem, at least at Mar-a-Lago, when he visited the property. Mr. Trump had never asked permission.

“There are members of the family who wanted to sue him,” said Mr. Tydings, a lawyer who wears his family’s coat of arms on a ring. “This is the first I’ve ever heard about it being used anywhere else.”
Click to expand...
Mr. Tydings, who still practices law, said that several years ago he talked some of his cousins out of suing Mr. Trump, because he knew it would be an endless and costly exercise.

“I just told the other members of my family that you can’t win on this,” he said. “You’ll borrow for two generations to sue him.”

“I know Trump very well,” he added. Mr. Tydings was a senior partner at Finley, Kumble, a giant firm in its day that represented Mr. Trump and other owners of the fledgling United States Football League in an unsuccessful suit against the N.F.L.

“I knew him and the way he operates,” Mr. Tydings said. “And the way he operates, you don’t sue Trump, because you’ll be in court for years and years and years.”
Click to expand...
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
It might be better for the people of DC (I have no idea on this one way or the other) but it's terrible for us politically to give it up to Maryland since it'd be a net -2 electoral votes.
 
F

Futurevoid

Member
http://thehill.com/policy/international/335547-report-trump-to-reverse-obamas-cuba-policy

President Donald Trump plans on reversing a set of policies softening relations with Cuba, according to a report from The Daily Caller.

According to the report, the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, an anti-embargo group, said the Trump administration was preparing to announce the changes to Obama-era policies in a June speech in Miami.
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As a Cuban American, this pisses me off to no extent. Fucking moron.
 
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