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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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kirblar

Member
Afghanistan could have been fine but of course Bush messed it up and also blew our chance at better relationships with Iran and Russia (when the latter was still quite possible).
Yup, he set relations with Iran back 2 decades, when he took office they had a moderate in office and were trying to thaw them.
 
Afghanistan was fine, Gulf War was fine.

Ultimately I think both are justifiable but I can't quite put them in the unavoidable category for sure.

Well, at least Afghanistan. Saddam was probably not open to negotiating without severe harm in Kuwait in the mean time, so that's a good point.

But Nazi Germany is certainly an evil that wasn't open to negotiation. Hitler was a comic book villain with how determined he was.
 

kirblar

Member
LOL WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS.

Retaliation, "Just bc its what you do" is a fucking terrible answer for going to war. You better be able to show me, in a quantifiable way, that you are saving lives on aggregate. What did this war solve?
We are not going to war. We are at war.

Good fucking god, have you never heard of the "Cold War"?
 

sphagnum

Banned
I hope you support an immediate invasion and occupation of the United States so that the terrorist-supporting government that frequently infringes upon sovereignty and kills thousands of civilians will be stopped.

Would be morally A-OK tbh if we were living in a world where the USSR lived up to its ideals. Wouldn't work out though with all those nukes.
 

Eferim

Member
So Russia engages in multiple cyber attacks against the US declaring a cyberwar. This isn't that big of a deal because cyberwarfare isn't like real war and thus doesn't require any kind of retaliation. However, the US can't engage in cyber attacks against Russia because that would mean we'd have to face consequences for our actions. Consequences that Russia doesn't have to face because cyberwarfare isn't a big deal.

Am I getting this right?
 
What is the alternative to responding to Russia's aggression? Do nothing?

Peace! (Inaction)


Really, the only sane response is to hit back through different means than boots, or strengthen defenses. Economically, digitally, socially, etc.

Which damn sure won't happen with Trump around.
 
LOL WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS.

Retaliation, "Just bc its what you do" is a fucking terrible answer for going to war. You better be able to show me, in a quantifiable way, that you are saving lives on aggregate. What did this war solve?

Russia's co-opting of Trump to subvert our democracy and institutions is straight out of their playbook aka 'Foundations of Geopolitics'. It's all about destabilizing the west so that they can't effectively stop Putin from accumulating power, and he will kill to do it.

Your plan would be to let them do it?

Russia will gladly commit genocide to annex Ukraine if that's what it takes to claim it. You'd be OK with that?

You know we fucked up staying out of WWII until Pearl Harbor happened, right?
 
What is the alternative to responding to Russia's aggression? Do nothing?

Economic sanctions, isolation by international community. There needs to be consequences, but simply launching a cyber counterattack is not a good solution.

It's also not workable. I mean, what kind of counter cyber attack would it be? It sounds pedantic but it's true that two wrongs do not make a right, and the USA should always hold the moral high ground. We lose it the second we launch a cyber attack.

Also I doubt a counter cyber attack would even be an effective deterrent. Again, what would it look like? What would be the purpose? It would be lame compared to what they did to us.
 
Stop trying to overthrow the governments of all of their friends. Make public displays of detente and abolish sanctions.

So our policy should be to oppose democratically elected governments like those in the Ukraine in favor of puppets installed by Putin? How could that go wrong?
 

jtb

Banned
Can a self-described lefty help me understand something?

How do you reconcile the belief that the government should act as an actor, strengthen the welfare state, control its industries, etc. with the idea that the state also should not have agency or sovereignty? Wouldn't you, by virtue of ceding so much power to the state, by definition be granting it authority on the international stage as well?

This is what I find puzzling about the Greenwald-ian strain of leftist politics which, foreign policy-wise, seem to be anti-state more than anything. The state does not have the authority to retaliate, etc. etc.

Aren't these things fundamentally at tension with one another?

Economic sanctions, isolation by international community. There needs to be consequences, but simply launching a cyber counterattack is not a good solution.

It's also not workable. I mean, what kind of counter cyber attack would it be? It sounds pedantic but it's true that two wrongs do not make a right, and the USA should always hold the moral high ground. We lose it the second we launch a cyber attack.

Also I doubt a counter cyber attack would even be an effective deterrent.

I agree with this.

Stop trying to overthrow the governments of all of their friends. Make public displays of detente and abolish sanctions.

What is the goal that this would achieve?
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
I think we're all pacifists in the realm of ideal theory, but hostile powers actually exist and need to be negotiated. You can do that with hard power or soft power, but if you're interested in maintaining your own power, you need to be willing to defend it.
 

chadskin

Member
It's almost comical how afraid of Russia some Americans have become. Putin riding a horse bear chested seems to have left a lasting impression!
 
Stop trying to overthrow the governments of all of their friends. Make public displays of detente and abolish sanctions.

This is insane. There would be no end to Russian encroachment.

Economic sanctions, isolation by international community. There needs to be consequences, but simply launching a cyber counterattack is not a good solution.

It's also not workable. I mean, what kind of counter cyber attack would it be? It sounds pedantic but it's true that two wrongs do not make a right, and the USA should always hold the moral high ground. We lose it the second we launch a cyber attack.

Also I doubt a counter cyber attack would even be an effective deterrent. Again, what would it look like? What would be the purpose? It would be lame compared to what they did to us.

Most cyber attacks are aimed at compromising systems which leads to expensive and slow upgrades to those compromised systems. It's equivalent to bombing empty buildings and structures.

And like I mentioned above, economic sanctions can push Putin into aggression. He's done it before and would do it again.
 
Economic sanctions, isolation by international community. There needs to be consequences, but simply launching a cyber counterattack is not a good solution.

It's also not workable. I mean, what kind of counter cyber attack would it be? It sounds pedantic but it's true that two wrongs do not make a right, and the USA should always hold the moral high ground. We lose it the second we launch a cyber attack.

Also I doubt a counter cyber attack would even be an effective deterrent. Again, what would it look like? What would be the purpose? It would be lame compared to what they did to us.

Presumably a counter cyberattack against their cyberwarfare capabilities--you know, hindering their ability to fuck with us--would be productive.

Obviously, "look we can fuck with your elections too" wouldn't be a good cyberattack angle to take.
 
WE'RE DOING BIG THINGS FOR MADE IN AMERICA WEEK

DE9a8M9W0AI-1CF.jpg
 
This is insane. There would be no end to Russian encroachment.



Most cyber attacks are aimed at compromising systems which leads to expensive and slow upgrades to those compromised systems. It's equivalent to bombing empty buildings and structures.

And like I mentioned above, economic sanctions can push Putin into aggression. He's done it before and would do it again.

But they'll just launch more cyber attacks against us in that scenario. Cyber attacks are criminal acts. The exact moment we launch a counter cyber attack, we are inviting retaliation and endless escalation. There's no winning a cyber war.

We need the moral high ground here and international cooperation to punish Russia with soft power. It's the only way. If Putin gets aggressive, we can deal with it then separately, as we always do.
 
The thing about Russia is that it's currently being run by Putin. Putin is... well, not to put too fine a point on it, but he's kind of a sociopath with a twisted zero-sum view of the world. He believes that for Russia to succeed, somebody else (the West generally, America specifically) MUST fail, and also, the inverse--that if the West falters, then Russia must therefore be succeeding. Detente does nothing for this mindset because they view overtures at peace as a sign of weakness.

Also the phrase "stop trying to overthrow the governments of their friends" gets a strong sideye from me due to the similarity to the classic "NATO encroachment" bullshit the Kremlin likes to spread.

Presumably a counter cyberattack against their cyberwarfare capabilities--you know, hindering their ability to fuck with us--would be productive.

Obviously, "look we can fuck with your elections too" wouldn't be a good cyberattack angle to take.

I mean, they're ALREADY fucking with their elections. There's... not a lot of room there.
 

kirblar

Member
Putin's "for me to succeed others must fail" worldview is sadly, not uncommon. Having a country run by someone w/ that worldview is, however.
 
To be clear, as I've mentioned before, I'm not really into the idea of sovereignty of nations. So my response to Russian election meddling is less about them not respecting our sovereignty and more about trying to remove the possibility of future unfair elections. If Russia was a power willing to negotiate and wasn't committing human rights violations every day, then I'd back that 100%. But it's immoral to me to treat them like Germany in a trade negotiation or something. They're not the same.
 

kirblar

Member
To be clear, as I've mentioned before, I'm not really into the idea of sovereignty of nations. So my response to Russian election meddling is less about them not respecting our sovereignty and more about trying to remove the possibility of future unfair elections. If Russia was a power willing to negotiate and wasn't committing human rights violations every day, then I'd back that 100%. But it's immoral to me to treat them like Germany in a trade negotiation or something. They're not the same.
Trusting a country that's regularly assassinating its own people and is currently committing genocide in Chechnya- a very bad idea.
 

Teggy

Member
I'm still very worried about the Kobach voter suppression stuff. It sounds like they will be submitting a bill that will further restrict the voter rights act whenever they are done with their sham commission. Question is if Rs will just go along with it.
 
I'm still very worried about the Kobach voter suppression stuff. It sounds like they will be submitting a bill that will further restrict the voter rights act whenever they are done with their sham commission. Question is if Rs will just go along with it.
Would need to pass a filibuster.
 
But they'll just launch more cyber attacks against us in that scenario. Cyber attacks are criminal acts. The exact moment we launch a counter cyber attack, we are inviting retaliation and endless escalation. There's no winning a cyber war.

We need the moral high ground here and international cooperation to punish Russia with soft power. It's the only way. If Putin gets aggressive, we can deal with it then separately, as we always do.

They're already aggressive. That's why they've conquered territory and hacked a foreign power.

And more cyber measures can limit their attempts in the future.

Have you met Mitch McConnell?

Mitch doesn't want to end the filibuster. It's why he's been really stretching the reconciliation rules.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
What is the goal that this would achieve?

Avoiding nuclear war. The Russian government would be substantially less bellicose if the US toned down its own aggression and imperialism. Ceasing our regime-change operations in states like Syria, Venezuela, and Iran (and Russia itself!) would give Russia far less cause to seek their influence by force.

Putin looms over Russia on two great stilts: oil sales and popular resentment of the West. While market forces and climate change are already starting to shake one of those pillars, Russians aren't going to stop loving Putin until Western governments stop fucking them over.
 
Avoiding nuclear war. The Russian government would be substantially less bellicose if the US toned down its own aggression and imperialism. Ceasing our regime-change operations in states like Syria, Venezuela, and Iran (and Russia itself!) would give Russia far less cause to seek their influence by force.

Putin looms over Russia on two great stilts: oil sales and popular resentment of the West. While market forces and climate change are already starting to shake one of those pillars, Russians aren't going to stop loving Putin until Western governments stop fucking them over.

>Putin gets Americans to bend the knee.
>Russians, living in hell and craving the past of importance, decide to turn against Putin.

Yeah, this is terrible psychological analysis.

You mean regarding how heavily they rely on oil?

I mean, yes, they're a petrol state.
 
Putin's "for me to succeed others must fail" worldview is sadly, not uncommon. Having a country run by someone w/ that worldview is, however.

It might not even be that uncommon, but they're usually not nuclear-armed dictatorships. It complicates things.

Trump shares Putin's zero-sum worldview.

Yup yup yup.

Ultimately, if it weren't for the fact that Trump & co keep refusing to say one bad word about Putin I'd almost believe that he really DOES just like him that much. They're basically the same person in a lot of ways, and modern Russia is basically the Republicans' ideal nation-state. The refusal to throw 'em under the bus for political gain gives up the ghost, though.
 

jtb

Banned
Avoiding nuclear war. The Russian government would be substantially less bellicose if the US toned down its own aggression and imperialism. Ceasing our regime-change operations in states like Syria, Venezuela, and Iran (and Russia itself!) would give Russia far less cause to seek their influence by force.

Putin looms over Russia on two great stilts: oil sales and popular resentment of the West. While market forces and climate change are already starting to shake one of those pillars, Russians aren't going to stop loving Putin until Western governments stop fucking them over.

Is that it? That's a pretty low bar.

also what evidence is there that Russians love Putin?
 

Valhelm

contribute something
>Putin gets Americans to bend the knee.
>Russians, living in hell and craving the past of importance, decide to turn against Putin.

Yeah, this is terrible psychological analysis.

Abandoning regime change operations isn't "bending the knee". It's decent human behavior.

In the immediate future, the US government should diplomatically condemn electoral meddling while ceasing its identical behavior in other nations. Sanctions are a no-go because they only impoverish everyday Russians.
 
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