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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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N

nature boy

Member
This is a massive defeat, 4 points, no point in spinning that. Sucks, gives Rs some breathing room, their base was energized for this race.

Move along, see what happens in 2018.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
pigeon said:
By the same argument, Democrats gained twenty points in a deep red South Carolina district without spending any money at all. The future is bright.
Click to expand...

Indeed. It looks like the Democratic recovery is stronger in predominantly rural counties rather than suburban ones.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
nature boy said:
Considering the amount of money and media attention, IMO it is a massive defeat.

Yeah I know it's a R district, but expectations were set.
Click to expand...

Which ironically may have backfired. The result was also in the margin of error the last set of polls were showing. What this should be is a learning experience (diminishing returns of money, what districts to target, how wide to aim, how/can one overcome tribalism, etc.) Trying to wallow in how "massive" a defeat it was seems like a pointless exercise unless you want to wallow in defeatism.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I guess big boi was right
"I heard it's not where you're from but where you pay rent
Then I heard it's not what you make but how much you spent"
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Yeah, loss by 4 when he was ahead in basically every poll but one is a sketchy ass result. Rain and the swing from the shooting really seems to've screwed him.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Why are we saying loss by 4? Handel had 52.7% and Ossoff had 47.3% 52.7 - 47.3 = 5.4. It was a 5 point loss, and closer to 6 than it was 4.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
-Last polls (more than one) show actual dead heat
-Margin of error 3-4 points
-One candidate wins within margin of error (not the one we wanted though LOL)

COMPLETE ANNIHILATION! We should all go kill ourselves now so we don't have to live through 10,000 years of darkness!

To be clear, being disappointed/frustrated is fine. Losing sucks. But the hyperbole is eye-rolling.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Crocodile said:
Which ironically may have backfired. The result was also in the margin of error the last set of polls were showing. What this should be is a learning experience (diminishing returns of money, what districts to target, how wide to aim, how/can one overcome tribalism, etc.) Trying to wallow in how "massive" a defeat it was seems like a pointless exercise unless you want to wallow in defeatism.
Click to expand...

Well, in 6 months of the worst President in history, Democrats still don't have a win.

It's not defeatism, it's translating the shittrain of this presidency into something relevant.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
nature boy said:
Well, in 6 months of the worst President in history, Democrats still don't have a win.

It's not defeatism, it's translating the shittrain of this presidency into something relevant.
Click to expand...

We don't have any Ws by design; Trump did not pick from swing districts.

BUT! you'd think GA06 would be a swing district. Like if we can't win educated white people, we can't win at all.
 
A

Ac30

Member
P

Pixieking

Banned
Crab said:
Why are we saying loss by 4? Handel had 52.7% and Ossoff had 47.3% 52.7 - 47.3 = 5.4. It was a 5 point loss, and closer to 6 than it was 4.
Click to expand...

WaPo having either correct numbers (and you're wrong! wroooooong! :p ) or old numbers

Handel won by almost 11,000 votes and by more than four percentage points, and Ossoff failed to reach the 48 percent mark that he topped in the initial round of voting in April.
Click to expand...

Y2Kev said:
We don't have any Ws by design; Trump did not pick from swing districts.

BUT! you'd think GA06 would be a swing district. Like if we can't win educated white people, we can't win at all.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I wonder why this is... A higher number of educated non-partisan white males giving Trump (and the GOP generally) the benefit of the doubt ("give them a chance")? Perhaps burned out on politics? Or perhaps the other way - not politically active enough to dig deep into how bad things like the economy, immigration, education and the AHCA are?
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Crab said:
Why are we saying loss by 4? Handel had 52.7% and Ossoff had 47.3% 52.7 - 47.3 = 5.4. It was a 5 point loss, and closer to 6 than it was 4.
Click to expand...

You're numbers are off

nature boy said:
Well, in 6 months of the worst President in history, Democrats still don't have a win.

It's not defeatism, it's translating the shittrain of this presidency into something relevant.
Click to expand...

I mean there is a reason people were picked from these districts - they were thought to be safe (i.e. hard for us to win). There are plenty of way more competitive districts throughout the country. You can let taunting from the GOP get you down or you can just see what you can learn from these special elections and use them as lessons moving forward? "MASSIVE DEFEAT!!!!!" seems more conducive to self-flagellation than learning.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
Crab said:
Hmm, I was using this. If in doubt, the Grauniad is known for the odd error or missed update, so I'll concede to the WaPo.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I wouldn't trust the Guardian with numbers, man... That way lies madness. :p

Unrelated to GA-06, I found this interesting:

Meet the 29-year-old who wants to shake up Everett politics
In the 125 years that Everett has been a city, its residents have elected just three Latino men, one black man, and 17 women, records from the city clerk’s office show.

The number of white men? 632.

Martins is part of a wave of female and nontraditional candidates across the country trying to make inroads in local government after the bruising election cycle of 2016. She’s one of 60 women who participated this year in Emerge Massachusetts, a candidate training program for Democratic women. Thirty of the women have already launched campaigns.
Click to expand...
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Pixieking said:
Yeah, I wonder why this is... A higher number of educated non-partisan white males giving Trump (and the GOP generally) the benefit of the doubt ("give them a chance")? Perhaps burned out on politics? Or perhaps the other way - not politically active enough to dig deep into how bad things like the economy, immigration, education and the AHCA are?
Click to expand...

They weren't voting for Trump though. These are folks who have literally never voted for a Democrat before in their lives in many cases. At least with midwesterners you have people who have voted with us in the past. It may be easier to bring them back into the fold than trying to convert masses of lifelong Republicans.

nature boy said:
Well, in 6 months of the worst President in history, Democrats still don't have a win.

It's not defeatism, it's translating the shittrain of this presidency into something relevant.
Click to expand...

The Dems have flipped some state level races and the liberal candidate won the San Antonio mayoral race so there has been some progress. This sucks for everyone but we have to continue the fight.
 
S

ShironRedshift

Member
Crocodile said:
Which ironically may have backfired. The result was also in the margin of error the last set of polls were showing. What this should be is a learning experience (diminishing returns of money, what districts to target, how wide to aim, how/can one overcome tribalism, etc.) Trying to wallow in how "massive" a defeat it was seems like a pointless exercise unless you want to wallow in defeatism.
Click to expand...
Indeed. Especially based on the SC result, which had substantially less coverage, but the Democratic candidate did comparatively better in a more conservative district. Seems like the national attention backfired and fired up Republicans in the district moreso than it did Democrats.

Being upset about how Ossoff lost in spite of all the money that was spent seems to be drawing the exact wrong lesson, considering that. Seems more likely that he lost due to it. Definitely something to consider in the future and to be much more careful about making local races into national affairs, as that seems to just rally Trump's base and super motivate them to show up instead of leaving them comparatively depressed and very apathetic about showing up, like in South Carolina.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
The Dems have flipped some state level races and the liberal candidate won the San Antonio mayoral race so there has been some progress. This sucks for everyone but we have to continue the fight.
Click to expand...
And, while not technically a win, that SC race from last night was crazy.

Seems Democrats do a lot better when a race isn't made into a huge ordeal.
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
I would like a word with the optimists, if there are any. I'm choosing not to post this on the OT for the GA election because PoliGAF has historically shown somewhat more restrain with their conjecture.

We didn't win GA-6. This really sucks. I needed it, we needed it, and it's an embarrassing defeat. Lots of people are saying it's good no matter what and it doesn't matter that we lost because we gave the Rs a run for their money. This offers me no comfort. A loss is a loss. Republicans still hold a seat Democrats really needed. Republicans still proceed unencumbered with their unwavering resolve to dismantle America. I take no personal comfort in a slim loss.

Lots of people are saying it's a miracle we got this close and this was an R stronghold and it was just a vanity seat anyway. In the greater sense, sure. But in a narrower context, this was only a Trump +1 district.

So if we couldn't flip a Trump +1 district, with a really good candidate, what hope is there for 2018?

We have to flip seats. But where are the seats we can flip with odds better than this one? Is there an encouraging map?
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
It wasn't R+1 seat, it was R10 according to 538 last night, so there's still the entire spectrum of <10 seats open for taking. Trump might have won by one, but that isn't the lean of the district

And that's just the GA margin, going by SC and basically the entire map is open
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Special elections are almost always won by the incumbent party. That's one reason it's dumb to try to extrapolate from them.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Y2Kev said:
We don't have any Ws by design; Trump did not pick from swing districts.

BUT! you'd think GA06 would be a swing district. Like if we can't win educated white people, we can't win at all.
Click to expand...

Crocodile said:
I mean there is a reason people were picked from these districts - they were thought to be safe (i.e. hard for us to win). There are plenty of way more competitive districts throughout the country. You can let taunting from the GOP get you down or you can just see what you can learn from these special elections and use them as lessons moving forward? "MASSIVE DEFEAT!!!!!" seems more conducive to self-flagellation than learning.
Click to expand...

Was thinking more broadly (SC pick, Paris Climate deal, etc.).

Honestly, the district had the profile to flip (Presidential results, rich and affluent), the R candidate was shit, a win would've changed the dynamic and Rs would've acted carefully on the major issues. Not to mention a win would've increased enthusiasm in the base and would've made easier to recruit candidates (since it seems the best strategy is to compete everywhere).

I just hope it doesn't hurt recruiting good candidates for the midterms.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
nature boy said:
Was thinking more broadly (SC pick, Paris Climate deal, etc.).

Honestly, the district had the profile to flip (Presidential results, rich and affluent), the R candidate was shit, a win would've changed the dynamic and Rs would've acted carefully on the major issues. Not to mention a win would've increased enthusiasm in the base and would've made easier to recruit candidates (since it seems the best strategy is to compete everywhere).

I just hope it doesn't hurt recruiting good candidates for the midterms.
Click to expand...
If we're thinking outside of special elections, Democrats won on the budget. Trump was furious. It was a huge achievement for Polosi

Democrats continue to keep winning on the travel ban stuff

Democrats are securing wins here and there. They aren't total losers.
 
P

PBY

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
If we're thinking outside of special elections, Democrats won on the budget. Trump was furious. It was a huge achievement for Polosi

Democrats continue to keep winning on the travel ban stuff

Democrats are securing wins here and there. They aren't total losers.
Click to expand...
Democrats have zero to do with the travel ban.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
nature boy said:
Was thinking more broadly (SC pick, Paris Climate deal, etc.).

Honestly, the district had the profile to flip (Presidential results, rich and affluent), the R candidate was shit, a win would've changed the dynamic and Rs would've acted carefully on the major issues. Not to mention a win would've increased enthusiasm in the base and would've made easier to recruit candidates (since it seems the best strategy is to compete everywhere).

I just hope it doesn't hurt recruiting good candidates for the midterms.
Click to expand...

There is literally nothing the Dems could do to stop the SC pick or the Paris Withdrawal. Those suck but all options were exploited. If the GOP REALLY, REALLY wants to take away healthcare from millions of people, there is little the Dems can do to stop them either - only punish them after the fact. We have to appreciate the little wins we can get.

Recruiting IS something I'm concerned about hopefully after a few days of sulking, people pull their heads out of their asses and hit the proverbial pavement to start working towards taking back the House.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Abinash117 said:
Basically, let Republicans dictate the Dems . If Republicans don't like a Democrat leader and keep tying them to candidate, then the Democrats must force the Democrat leader to step down so Republicans won't be mean. Lol, you know how weak that looks? Who will put their trust in the party if the party reacts to the whims of the opposition? Words won't describe on how pathetic that is.

So what if they go after Bernie Sanders, if he becomes a Democrat leader? You will let him go too?
Click to expand...

Why are you attacking me about this? I just answered the question. I said yesterday I don't want her to go but thought it was an interesting conversation.

Also, it took GOP years to vilify Pelosi through right-wing media. YEARS. Everyone on here saying "they'll just do it to a new leader" are conveniently ignoring that it will take years and years to do so.

pigeon said:
"I think Democrats should give up on women's rights to win elections, but hey, it's not like I ENJOY giving up on women's rights. I just think it's a good idea."
Click to expand...

Why are you so extreme? Any time someone criticizes a female candidate, you scream "sexism." Any time someone criticizes a minority candidate, you scream "racism." Any time someone mentions the idea of running a pro-life candidate, it is "you want the democrats to throw women's rights away forever!!!" People can be criticized for their faults and it actually doesn't have to be about stereotypes. That's how adult conversations work. I'm not getting why this board is headed in that direction. I mean, just yesterday I used Biden as my main example for democrats to get fresh faces in, and still got accused of sexism. Makes no sense at all.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Crab said:
Why are we saying loss by 4? Handel had 52.7% and Ossoff had 47.3% 52.7 - 47.3 = 5.4. It was a 5 point loss, and closer to 6 than it was 4.
Click to expand...
Cause we have good numbers dummie lol!!

I am now a republican. Wooo voter suppression
 
Spuck-uk

Spuck-uk

Banned
nature boy said:
Well, in 6 months of the worst President in history, Democrats still don't have a win.

It's not defeatism, it's translating the shittrain of this presidency into something relevant.
Click to expand...

From the point of view of an outsider, your democrats still don't seem to be running on any sort of a platform other than 'we aren't Trump'
 
C

chadskin

Member
Nancy Pelosi was a huge drag on Ossoff. The most prominent and effective hit on the Democratic candidate was to tie him to the congresswoman from San Francisco.

Republican operatives say that 98 percent of voters in the 6th District already had an impression of Pelosi when they conducted their first internal poll, and she was 35 points underwater. When presented with the choice of whether they wanted a representative who would work with Paul Ryan or Pelosi, six in 10 picked the Speaker and three in 10 picked the minority leader.
Click to expand...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ia-special-election/59497f2fe9b69b2fb981ddc6/
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
I'd say that we really should be working on a full legislative agenda now. We don't need to publish it yet, but an announcement that there's work on a first 100 hours project would be really nice to hear. Dems do have a message beyond "we're not Trump", but having some concrete "vote for us and get xyz" complete with links would be nice.

dramatis said:
You guys might feel less down if you would get some sleep.
Click to expand...
I certainly feel better!
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
cartoon_soldier said:
People will still come and say that Pelosi is not a drag on Congressional candidates for Dems. People need to realize that Republican voters hate her with a passion, similar to Clinton. Dems we're not able to overcome that no matter how much they tried in 2016 and they won't be able to if prospect of a Pelosi as a speaker continues to exist.
Click to expand...

Those numbers are staggering. I'm still stunned we have people on here saying it doesn't matter.
 
B

benicillin

Banned
It's a loss but the overdramatics aren't helping anyone, this was a safe R district that was very close to going Ossof and there are a ton of other districts that aren't this safe R at all that can be picked up in 2018.

I like Nancy Pelosi a lot, she's damn good at her job, but man I'm also rather tired of having ancient Democratic leadership that has high negatives baked in because they've been doing politics forever.
 
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