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[Ogodei]

Thinking about my own list, Elijah Cummings might make a good leader. He'd have a decade before he is as old as Pelosi is now and could make a strong anti-Trump rallying figure, and seems to do well in his questioning.

And then the GOP would be forced to dog-whistle when trying to tie candidates to him.

I do think Pelosi should stay as long as she wants to while Dems are still the minority, though. I just don't think she should be speaker again.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Right, so why not try running convinced Democrats and not bland stand-ins?

Sure, we could run better candidates.

There are of course differences, but there are also strong similarities, enough to be able to draw shared lessons. Thatcher and Reagan, Clinton and Blair, Corbyn and Sanders - the two countries often 'echo' each other, even if they're not straight analogues.

Okay, Labour also gained Warwick and Leamington, a very well-to-do wealthy suburban district not far from Birmingham.

That might be somewhat the case overall, but US suburbs are just... there's no real good equal to them in the world. It's an entire culture. Especially in the south.

Home owner's associations ruling with an iron fist, huge lawns that turn into a contest for best groomed, kind of awkwardly knowing your neighbors and pretending to like them "because it's polite", but not really liking them, high school football, religious (or at least pretend to be), generally uptight, a deep fear of not being as good as your neighbor's house/car/wife, there's overall somewhat of a surreal phoniness to the entire arrangement.

I googled Warwick and Leamington and neither look anything like a US suburb with its grids of template made cookie cutter homes with perfectly groomed grass with the occasional pool. And roads. Roads all over the place. Leading to shopping plazas filled with chain restaurants and big box stores.

 

[Blader]

This special election really taught me, as someone who was on the ground, that the only thing that will wake up Republicans is when they are directly affected by Trump and the GOP's policies, and even then its 50/50.

The AHCA is going to go through and the damage it will do will be unprecedented, and maybe that's the only fucking thing that will get through their thick skulls but who even knows at this point. They're a cult, plain and simple.

Districts like GA-6 are not going to be impacted by AHCA.

 

[Box of Kittens]

You're quite right, that's very lazy of me. I should have put +5D rather than just +5 (or +6D, but to be fair I was using the Guardian's faulty numbers).

I blame Charlie Cook. It's a mistake I see in this thread almost every time Congressional elections are discussed, and one I've made before myself. I guess I get why they're reported the way they are, but it's terribly confusing.

 

[Abinash117]

But 2010 and 2014 are part of those failures, and like I said above, Pelosi is tied to that. She isn't entirely responsible, but I wonder if there is such an issue with youth vote because there is nobody that appeals to them at this point. Having the old guard is a huge issue. I like Pelosi and would choose that she stays, but democrats need to somehow work around that and it just doesn't seem to be working at this very moment.

The youth vote don't know Nancy, probably heard about her. What matters more are the candidates. If the you need to be energized they can get someone to do it; most Democrats and even some leaners don't care about Nancy Pelosi at that point.

Republicans just use her as an excuse to vote against Democrats. They will still vote against Democrats if she were not to exist .

 

[kirblar]

The youth vote don't know Nancy, probably heard about her. What matters more are the candidates. If the you need to be energized they can get someone to do it; most Democrats and even some leaners don't care about Nancy Pelosi at that point.

Republicans just use her as an excuse to vote against Democrats. They will still vote against Democrats if she were not to exist .

In '94 Newt was the face of his party. If you replace Pelosi it has to be w someone willing to take that role to that degree. Post Newt speakers haven't acted like that.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Lately I've done a complete reversal on gun control. I don't care about military weapons because those are constitutionally protected and mass shootings with big guns are really rare but I care a lot about handgun bans because it's the number one cause of juvenile incarceration, which is something I care about.

From my time on a grand jury, I can tell you that handgun laws work like so--

A cop spots something akin to a drug deal, chases suspect, suspect tosses gun. If no drug case can be made, there's always the weapons charge.

I don't know about you, but I actually *am* for locking up kids who are selling drugs while in possession of a firearm. Or really, anyone carrying an illegal firearm.

I'm about ready to give up on gun control altogether, but the one place it males sense is handgun bans. You can use a longarm for hunting and home protection. There isn't really a need for handguns in society.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Districts like GA-6 are not going to be impacted by AHCA.

No, but more swing states will.

 

[RastaMentality]

Feinstein's running for re-election, right?

She needs to get replaced by a person of color. 100%.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Home owner's associations ruling with an iron fist, huge lawns that turn into a contest for best groomed, kind of awkwardly knowing your neighbors and pretending to like them "because it's polite", but not really liking them, high school football, religious (or at least pretend to be), generally uptight, a deep fear of not being as good as your neighbor's house/car/wife, there's overall somewhat of a surreal phoniness to the entire arrangement.

Replace 'football' with 'rugby' and literally all of these apply to Warwick and Leamington. Religious is sort of fading amongst the young, at least, but you go to real well-heeled suburban England and you still get people competing to be more Anglican than the Queen.

I googled Warwick and Leamington and neither look anything like a US suburb with its grids of template made cookie cutter homes with perfectly groomed grass with the occasional pool. And roads. Roads all over the place. Leading to shopping plazas filled with chain restaurants and big box stores.

That's just because Warwick and Leamington is older and the architecture of the place is different. Under that visual facade, you have the same almost toxic churn of insecurity and the pressure to keep up with the Joneses.

 

[Veritigo_X]

I'm just going to take a second to fawn over that Sherrod Brown/Kamala Harris beer bet video again to make me feel better. They make such a good pair.

 

[jtb]

I think Warren missed her opportunity to run. These windows are brief. She was the right candidate in 2016, imo.

The right candidate to speak to post-Obama malaise/"economic populism" in 2016. The wrong candidate to speak to the racism, misogyny, etc. that Trump has awakened in the country in 2020.

I don't think she will run. If she didn't run in 2016, she's fine with being a senator for the rest of her life - and that's fine.

 

[nature boy]

Jeh Johnson says Obama admin waited months to disclose Russian meddling bc "one of the candidates was saying the election was rigged."

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/877532037627994112

Bams thought Hillary had it in the bag

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Bams thought Hillary had it in the bag

Obama's fatal flaw was believing in people to do the right thing.

 

[The Technomancer]

high school football, religious

What's the difference?

 

[Holmes]

She needs to get replaced by a person of color. 100%.

I wouldn't mind seeing her go now but if she runs for re-election, she'll win easily. Her replacement also needs to be from Northern California.

 

[Plinko]

Have we talked about Kamala Harris' playlist?

https://blavity.com/senator-harris-...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Now THIS is a candidate I can support!

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Sure, we could run better candidates.



That might be somewhat the case overall, but US suburbs are just... there's no real good equal to them in the world. It's an entire culture. Especially in the south.

Home owner's associations ruling with an iron fist, huge lawns that turn into a contest for best groomed, kind of awkwardly knowing your neighbors and pretending to like them "because it's polite", but not really liking them, high school football, religious (or at least pretend to be), generally uptight, a deep fear of not being as good as your neighbor's house/car/wife, there's overall somewhat of a surreal phoniness to the entire arrangement.

I find it hard to believe this is a US phenomenon when this song exists:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5gc_-VZiTk

 

[The Technomancer]

No country in the world has a relationship with race quite like the US. Any comparisons that fail to account for that are always going to be confused

 

[Blader]

I think Warren missed her opportunity to run. These windows are brief. She was the right candidate in 2016, imo.

The right candidate to speak to post-Obama malaise/"economic populism" in 2016. The wrong candidate to speak to the racism, misogyny, etc. that Trump has awakened in the country in 2020.

I don't think she will run. If she didn't run in 2016, she's fine with being a senator for the rest of her life - and that's fine.

I agree she missed her window to run. I just think being told she's the face of the resistance, the Democrats' most popular anti-Trump figure for three straight years, being prodded by Harry Reid, etc. are going to push her to run in 2020 regardless. I would be surprised and impressed if she didn't run.

Have we talked about Kamala Harris' playlist?

https://blavity.com/senator-harris-...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Now THIS is a candidate I can support!

Migos sucks though.

 

[PBY]

Migos sucks though.

Of all the terrible takes in this thread over the last 24 hours


this is the worst.

 

[RastaMentality]

Have we talked about Kamala Harris' playlist?

https://blavity.com/senator-harris-...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Now THIS is a candidate I can support!

West Indians are gonna be so excited for this woman.

 

[VendettaRed07]

"My shot"

Lol. She's running alright.

 

[Sirpopopop]

To be blunt:

Nancy Pelosi has done a great job for Democrats throughout the years.

She's done a great job for the people of San Francisco over the years.

However, it's also clear that an attack strategy focused on Nancy Pelosi works.

I don't think her stepping down would be enough. Her presence in the House is a drag on every other candidate. She's been around too long, she's been dragged through the mud for so long, and her unfavorables are high enough that her presence is enough to be a drag in this Republican gerrymandered climate.

I don't have a real good solution to this problem, other than suggesting that Nancy Pelosi retire. However, I doubt she will retire.

 

[Plinko]

"Waterfalls" by TLC is the secret best song on that entire list.

 

[royalan]

No country in the world has a relationship with race quite like the US. Any comparisons that fail to account for that are always going to be confused

This.

The US is pretty ass-backward when it comes to certain social issues. You can't ignore that and expect politics that work in demonstrably more liberal countries to work here.

 

[Diablos]

Bams thought Hillary had it in the bag

He should have been sounding off on Trump every damn day. I miss him but I'm disappointed that he also didn't do more to combat Trump's bullshit.
Trump emerged as a grave threat to the Presidency as we know it, and he now occupies the White House. Obama should have realized that he needed to use everything at his disposal to slow him down. Play a little dirty, do whatever you have to do.
I mean, he didn't have any problems getting down in the mud with Hillary or Romney. Trump should have been a no brainer.

 

[Blader]

Of all the terrible takes in this thread over the last 24 hours


this is the worst.

I had to listen to them at a festival last month and they were beyond terrible. I am also salty that Solange cancelled at the last minute and they were the replacement.

He should have been sounding off on Trump every damn day. I miss him but I'm disappointed that he also didn't do more to combat Trump's bullshit.
Trump emerged as a grave threat to the Presidency as we know it, and he now occupies the White House. Obama should have realize to use everything at his disposal to slow him down.

He did. He even said he'd consider electing Trump as a personal insult to him and his legacy. Enough Dem voters didn't care.

 

[Diablos]

I had to listen to them at a festival last month and they were beyond terrible. I am also salty that Solange cancelled at the last minute and they were the replacement.



He did. He even said he'd consider electing Trump as a personal insult to him and his legacy. Enough Dem voters didn't care.

But I mean he should have been more active in informing the public about Russian interference and started putting that really big target on Trump that didn't emerge until it was too late and he won.

 

[VendettaRed07]

He should have been sounding off on Trump every damn day. I miss him but I'm disappointed that he also didn't do more to combat Trump's bullshit.
Trump emerged as a grave threat to the Presidency as we know it, and he now occupies the White House. Obama should have realize to use everything at his disposal to slow him down.

He did as much as you could expect an outgoing president to possibly do

 

[Blader]

Man, what the hell

http://www.weeklystandard.com/early-polling-in-virginia-has-good-news-for-gillespie/article/2008534

But new polling suggests the race between Gillespie and Democratic nominee Ralph Northam is neck and neck. A poll taken just after the primary by Harper Polling puts both candidates at 46 percent support, with the remaining 8 percent of the electorate undecided.

The poll has Gillespie leading among undecided voters 19 percent to 7 percent (with the remainder “truly undecided”). Harper, a Republican polling outfit, also reports that Gillespie has consolidated more of his party’s support, though the differences are slim: 89 percent of Republicans support Gillespie while 86 favor Northam.

For those despairing the future of conservatism and Republicans, Gillespie’s numbers offer some reassurance. He beats Northam among voters age 18-34 by 22 percent (56 to 34). No, that’s not a typo. The candidates are tied among voters age 35-54.

There's really no spinning it if Gillespie wins VA in November. That's indefensible.

 

[VendettaRed07]

No country in the world has a relationship with race quite like the US. Any comparisons that fail to account for that are always going to be confused

But I mean, the U.K. literally just drove their country off of a cliff in order to possibily have the opportunity of shutting down immigration

The party dynamics for labour and conservative and what their voter make up is like is similar as well

Like it's not an exact comparison by any stretch but it isn't crazy to compare or hope successful strategies there might do better here as well

 

[royalan]

He did as much as you could expect an outgoing president to possibly do

Every dirty trick you already know Trump is about to play from the White House in 2020.

 

[Diablos]

WTF. If Hillary can win VA then Northam better be able to.

Young voters looking to be quite conservative as well. That's not good

 

[kirblar]

Man, what the hell

http://www.weeklystandard.com/early-polling-in-virginia-has-good-news-for-gillespie/article/2008534

There's really no spinning it if Gillespie wins VA in November. That's indefensible.

Republican Polling Outfit.

GOP Winning Young Voters.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Man, what the hell

http://www.weeklystandard.com/early-polling-in-virginia-has-good-news-for-gillespie/article/2008534

There's really no spinning it if Gillespie wins VA in November. That's indefensible.

Gillespie’s numbers offer some reassurance. He beats Northam among voters age 18-34 by 22 percent (56 to 34)

This doesn't make any sense what so ever

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Perriello would have won.

 

[B-Dubs]

But I mean, the U.K. literally just drove their country off of a cliff in order to possibily have the opportunity of shutting down immigration

The party dynamics for labour and conservative and what their voter make up is like is similar as well

Like it's not an exact comparison by any stretch but it isn't crazy to compare or hope successful strategies there might do better here as well

No. Racism was something they just adopted for a time, it was literally built into the US Constitution and general law. It's quite literally America's original sin, we have a relationship with it no other nation could have.

 

[Blader]

I'm not really in the mood for unskewing polls anymore after last November. Harper is a B- pollster on 538; they may have an R lean, but they're seemingly not trash to be ignored either.

Perriello would have won.

How? He got blown out in the primary.

 

[Box of Kittens]

I would like a word with the optimists, if there are any. I'm choosing not to post this on the OT for the GA election because PoliGAF has historically shown somewhat more restrain with their conjecture.

We didn't win GA-6. This really sucks. I needed it, we needed it, and it's an embarrassing defeat. Lots of people are saying it's good no matter what and it doesn't matter that we lost because we gave the Rs a run for their money. This offers me no comfort. A loss is a loss. Republicans still hold a seat Democrats really needed. Republicans still proceed unencumbered with their unwavering resolve to dismantle America. I take no personal comfort in a slim loss.

Lots of people are saying it's a miracle we got this close and this was an R stronghold and it was just a vanity seat anyway. In the greater sense, sure. But in a narrower context, this was only a Trump +1 district.

So if we couldn't flip a Trump +1 district, with a really good candidate, what hope is there for 2018?

We have to flip seats. But where are the seats we can flip with odds better than this one? Is there an encouraging map?

One thing to keep in mind is that Trump winning by 1 point is just one data point. Romney won this district by 30 points and it hasn't sent a Democrat to Washington in most of our lifetimes. They don't like Trump, but they still like Republicans, see themselves as Republicans, and treat Trump as an invader more than the head of the party. If the Republican Party is increasingly seen as the party of Trump, it'll keep moving in our direction, but the general rule is that there is sometime of a lag in how voting shifts in Congressional elections relative to presidential elections.

I'm not saying this wasn't a disappointing result. It was. But it doesn't mean we can't win the House in 2018. What it really represents to me is the failure of the whole consultant class within the Democratic Party that peddles the same failed strategy of dumping all the money into a narrow set of races while ignoring everything else over and over again. We may have been able to win KS-4 or SC-5 with a little more investment rather than pumping money into GA-6 well past the point of diminishing returns. Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference. Maybe it would have brought enough national attention to motivate the Republican base in those districts. But how can we know if we don't even try? Anyone who suggests a strategy in 2018 of focusing all our efforts on 30 seats in the Sun Belt should be ignored. We do need to make a push for those seats, and for Rust Belt seats that have traditionally been willing to elect Democrats, and...

 

[kirblar]

Here's what they're not telling you:

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 500 likely general election voters in Virginia and the margin of error is +/-4.4%. Reponses were gathered via landline interviews conducted with Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The survey was conducted June 14 -16, 2017 by Harper Polling.

How many young people actually have a landline? And if they do, where do they live?

 

[Diablos]

Perriello would have won.

I mean it should have been Bernie right

 

[VendettaRed07]

No. Racism was something they just adopted for a time, it was literally built into the US Constitution and general law. It's quite literally America's original sin, we have a relationship with it no other nation could have.

Historically it's not even close, of course. I just more so meant that right now Conservative is literally using the GOP playbook and it has been effective for them. And that the reverse of using labour tactics here could be effective. Not saying it would but it's possible

 

[NandoGip]

Of all the terrible takes in this thread over the last 24 hours


this is the worst.

retweet

 

[B-Dubs]

Historically it's not even close, of course. I just more so meant that right now Conservative is literally using the GOP playbook and it has been effective for them. And that the reverse of using labour tactics here could be effective. Not saying it would but it's possible

The issue is this thinking ignores why it failed for Conservatives and works for the GOP. It's a simple assumption that doesn't take into account the differing cultures, geographic or racial make-ups of the two countries.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

How? He got blown out in the primary.

It was rigged by the DPV.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Every dirty trick you already know Trump is about to play from the White House in 2020.

I suppose he could have done things trump will probably attempt but idk.. I don't know if stoking a constitutional crisis would have helped

Increasing his favorables like he did and hoping it rubbed off on Hillary was probably the best play he could have made

 

[Trumplestiltskin]

No. Racism was something they just adopted for a time, it was literally built into the US Constitution and general law. It's quite literally America's original sin, we have a relationship with it no other nation could have.

Basically every European country has as much or more blood on their hands with racism and slavery. The UK, France, Belgium, etc. invaded countries, enslaved the populace, sold millions of them around the world, impressed them into colonies (black people aren't native to Brazil or the Caribbean), etc.

To the extent the US is unique that's down to the fact that it couldn't just wash its hands of the wreckage this caused like the Europeans could. Even then the US isn't unique because Brazil has a history of slavery going until 1888, and huge issues of racism and race-based inequality. To say the US is exclusively villainous in this respect just shows how deeply ignorant you are of anything outside your county.

 

[kirblar]

Basically every European country has as much or more blood on their hands with racism and slavery. The UK, France, Belgium, etc. invaded countries, enslaved the populace, sold millions of them around the world, impressed them into colonies (black people aren't native to Brazil or the Caribbean), etc.

To the extent the US is unique that's down to the fact that it couldn't just wash its hands of the wreckage this caused like the Europeans could. Even then the US isn't unique because Brazil has a history of slavery going until 1888, and huge issues of racism and race-based inequality. To say the US is exclusively villainous in this respect just shows how deeply ignorant you are of anything outside your county.

Those countries are all homogenous. None of them have minority population %s at the level the US does. (and yet many are still freaking out at low population %s!)

 

[Dierce]

I think it's important to point out that Hillary had a high favorable rating 3 years before the election which is right when the evil cultist started their mudslinging. We cannot underestimate how effective those assholes truly are at damaging a candidate in a short amount of time.