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[VendettaRed07]

Money's diminishing returns and how it's wasted needs to be seriously looked at

What good is spending millions on Ads during prime time on cable tv if they don't change anyone's mind anymore?

It's not the 90s anymore and old ideas like that don't seem to work. I'd say being able to say "my opponent is bought out by special interests and I am not" is a more valuable asset than money you are essentially setting on fire because it isn't being used in effective ways

 

[Hooligan69]

Nah, I think people were putting way too much faith that the race would effect the AHCA. It wouldn't change anything. If it passes, it would have passed whether Ossoff won or not.

People wanted something to latch onto as a definitive way to stop the AHCA, so they decided this race was that.

More so than this race, I think the CBO estimate next week is what will do serious harm to the senate bill. How is McConnell going to get the votes he needs in the middle of a media storm of 30 million people losing insurance?

 

[Sirpopopop]

Sounds like one of the reasons for not getting involved with SC-05 was Parnell's background as a Goldman Sachs executive

But yeah, they should've done something more there.

Maybe this should show us that it's a mistake to dismiss someone just because they worked at Goldman Sachs.

Nahh... DOWN WITH THE 1%!

Money's diminishing returns and how it's wasted needs to be seriously looked at

What good is spending millions on Ads during prime time on cable tv if they don't change anyone's mind anymore?

It's not the 90s anymore and old ideas like that don't seem to work. I'd say being able to say "my opponent is bought out by special interests and I am not" is a more valuable asset than money you are essentially setting on fire because it isn't being used in effective ways

But Handel was also bought by special interests, so what's your point?

Look, she had a major demographic advantage in that district. There's a reason why Tom Price was chosen, after all. All she had to do was tilt at a few variables and hope that one would work, and she would win.

The path to victory for Ossoff was narrow. Even if he was perfect, he could still lose if Handel found some message that worked to get the voters of GA-06 to stick to their typical alignment. She did, and she won.

 

[Gattsu25]

The interesting bit about this morning's testimony is that while Jeh Johnson appears to confirm the old NYTimes report on the DNC hack he elected to ignore the entire lead-in of the article which would explain why the DNC decided to not go with the FBI when it came to investigating the hack: Because the FBI made almost no effort to notify them for months despite only being a half a mile away from the site.

WASHINGTON — When Special Agent Adrian Hawkins of the Federal Bureau of Investigation called the Democratic National Committee in September 2015 to pass along some troubling news about its computer network, he was transferred, naturally, to the help desk.

His message was brief, if alarming. At least one computer system belonging to the D.N.C. had been compromised by hackers federal investigators had named “the Dukes,” a cyberespionage team linked to the Russian government.

The F.B.I. knew it well: The bureau had spent the last few years trying to kick the Dukes out of the unclassified email systems of the White House, the State Department and even the Joint Chiefs of Staff, one of the government’s best-protected networks.

Yared Tamene, the tech-support contractor at the D.N.C. who fielded the call, was no expert in cyberattacks. His first moves were to check Google for “the Dukes” and conduct a cursory search of the D.N.C. computer system logs to look for hints of such a cyberintrusion. By his own account, he did not look too hard even after Special Agent Hawkins called back repeatedly over the next several weeks — in part because he wasn’t certain the caller was a real F.B.I. agent and not an impostor.

“I had no way of differentiating the call I just received from a prank call,” Mr. Tamene wrote in an internal memo, obtained by The New York Times, that detailed his contact with the F.B.I.


...


The D.N.C.’s fumbling encounter with the F.B.I. meant the best chance to halt the Russian intrusion was lost. The failure to grasp the scope of the attacks undercut efforts to minimize their impact. And the White House’s reluctance to respond forcefully meant the Russians have not paid a heavy price for their actions, a decision that could prove critical in deterring future cyberattacks.

The low-key approach of the F.B.I. meant that Russian hackers could roam freely through the committee’s network for nearly seven months before top D.N.C. officials were alerted to the attack and hired cyberexperts to protect their systems. In the meantime, the hackers moved on to targets outside the D.N.C., including Mrs. Clinton’s campaign chairman, John D. Podesta, whose private email account was hacked months later.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/russia-hack-election-dnc.html?_r=0

 

[B-Dubs]

Money's diminishing returns and how it's wasted needs to be seriously looked at

What good is spending millions on Ads during prime time on cable tv if they don't change anyone's mind anymore?

It's not the 90s anymore and old ideas like that don't seem to work. I'd say being able to say "my opponent is bought out by special interests and I am not" is a more valuable asset than money you are essentially setting on fire because it isn't being used in effective ways

If both sides are spending huge it'll cancel each other out, which I think is recognized. A candidate spending the right amount of money, when his/her opponent isn't, can still likely buy a House seat though.

 

[jtb]

Is "cut wasteful spending" the most bland and uninspiring of campaign promises?

 

[daedalius]

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/877548330355752960

This 100%

Republicans are all in on "TAKE THAT LIBRULS" policy literally doesn't matter to them, its all about winning for their team, regardless of if they are hurt or not.

They can think about being hurt later, but winning now is of utmost importance.

 

[Gattsu25]

Is "cut wasteful spending" the most bland and uninspiring of campaign promises?

Depends on what "wasteful spending" is a dog whistle term for.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Something else that hurt Dems is again a very non-competitive primary in GA-6. In two ways, if we had a competitive primary it would have been easier for two people to get 24% and have no Republican in runoff. But also, that meant Ossoff fatigue had set in even quicker for voters.

More veterans, women (in college educated districts especially), more blue collar workers. Try to get some ex-cops/firemen too. Those would be ideal recruits for 2018.

Don't focus test potential recruits and select one. Let there be competitive primaries.

And back that Paul Ryan challenger to the bank.

 

[Blader]

I think next year, we should have Dem candidates just spout heinously awful lies about their opponents, over and over again. Just to see what happens.

 

[Ogodei]

The assumption is still that government's out there pissing away money on whatever. It's a long-term GOP victory to get folks to think of civics as something only for the corrupt.

 

[VendettaRed07]

This 100%

Republicans are all in on "TAKE THAT LIBRULS" policy literally doesn't matter to them, its all about winning for their team, regardless of if they are hurt or not.

They can think about being hurt later, but winning now is of utmost importance.

That isn't a good thing

You can't have "we can't throw groups x y and z under the bus. We can't do this or that either" and then turn around and say we need to emulate republicans "win at all costs regardless". They aren't compatible

 

[Stinkles]

I think next year, we should have Dem candidates just spout heinously awful lies about their opponents, over and over again. Just to see what happens.

Why? The truths are horrific and provable:

"They don't care if your kid dies of cancer when you lose your job."


"They think it's OK for black people to get shot by cops"

"They think teachers should carry sidearms in classrooms."

"They think food stamps are a luxury."

 

[VendettaRed07]

But Handel was also bought by special interests, so what's your point?

That Ossoff couldn't point that out or attack her on that because he was too

 

[Tarydax]

I think next year, we should have Dem candidates just spout heinously awful lies about their opponents, over and over again. Just to see what happens.

Dems don't even need to lie about Republicans, they just need to go for the jugular with the truth. Like, Randy Bryce needs to ask Ryan why he's trying to kill Bryce's mother.

 

[Sirpopopop]

That Ossoff couldn't point that out or attack her on that because he was too

Ok, if that's the case, and special interests are an issue that were of obvious interest to GA-06 voters, then shouldn't that have depressed turnout.

"Oh look at both of these candidates, they are bought and paid for - Why vote?"

Yet, we saw the opposite effect.

 

[Stinkles]

Secure Online voting just cannot exist. An online election is the holy grail for cyberattacks.

The second half of your claim is real, the first half is nonsense. Here's a loose method that could work:


1. Vote online, receive a QRC code and receipt generated from your vote. That QRC code contains all your voting choices and the timestamp etc.
2. Check your QRC code against that database after the results and a checksum creates an incredibly elaborate and non forgeable "paper" trail.
3. In the event of serious discrepancies we can identify individual and broad issues based on that validation.

 

[Pixieking]

Dems don't even need to lie about Republicans, they just need to go for the jugular with the truth. Like, Randy Bryce needs to ask Ryan why he's trying to kill Bryce's mother.

I'd pay good money for a town hall debate with Ryan where Bryce asks this.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Something else that hurt Dems is again a very non-competitive primary in GA-6. In two ways, if we had a competitive primary it would have been easier for two people to get 24% and have no Republican in runoff. But also, that meant Ossoff fatigue had set in even quicker for voters.

While agreed on some level, this would also make it easier for two Republicans to get into the runoff. Risky business.

 

[daedalius]

That isn't a good thing

You can't have "we can't throw groups x y and z under the bus. We can't do this or that either" and then turn around and say we need to emulate republicans "win at all costs regardless". They aren't compatible

Oh, its a terrible thing! I have no idea what to do to fix it.

How do you get people to stop viewing politics and policy as a team sport? Where 'winning' is more important than anything else? I have no clue.

The AHCA is the perfect encapsulation of this, because it will hurt red states and rural voters WAY more than anyone else. Good luck to those rural hospitals on staying open after the AHCA passes.

But hey fuck it, take that libruls/dimms/etc.

 

[tedrotheredro]

Dems should go all in on Russian conspiracy. Tie every GOP to it and how they're covering it up. It's much more interesting to follow than healthcare or economic issues, and turns off the other side...they try to ignore it and end up just not paying attention or caring.

Just look at the ratings on Colbert and Maddow. They ain't tuning in for Obamacare repeal and tax reform.

Until we have Dems chanting "lock him up", I don't see much changing.

Otherwise, I guess we could wait for a recession...

 

[B-Dubs]

Dems don't even need to lie about Republicans, they just need to go for the jugular with the truth. Like, Randy Bryce needs to ask Ryan why he's trying to kill Bryce's mother.

All I can think of here is Chappelle's Black Bush sketch, specifically the moment he's justifying the invasion of Iraq.

 

[Chococat]

More veterans, women (in college educated districts especially), more blue collar workers. Try to get some ex-cops/firemen too. Those would be ideal recruits for 2018.

The idealist would love to see people from all parts in society join government.

But I worry pushing for this is just another arm of anti-intellectualism. It's the other side of the coin- republican being against "elites". Heck, every college grad is an elitist.It just smacks Maoist ideas of removing all intellectuals from government and replacing them with everyday men/women. That did not work out well for China.

Not every one has the ability to actual to be a lawmaker and leader. Not everyone can transfer skills form manual labor to office work. It not to imply people are stupid- it just jobs, including lawmakers, require specific skills.

I agree we should cultivate people from all walks. I'm just against raising people for political points.

 

[tuxfool]

Why not just let them run their race how they see it and represent the voters of their district and/or state? Don't tell them to talk about anything, let them do it themselves.

I don't see national Republicans telling Charlie Baker to go out and deny climate change.

You still want to have a message that is a piece of a whole.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Ok, if that's the case, and special interests are an issue that were of obvious interest to GA-06 voters, then shouldn't that have depressed turnout.

"Oh look at both of these candidates, they are bought and paid for - Why vote?"

Yet, we saw the opposite effect.

Literally no one likes candidates who are blatantly bank rolled by big money interests. No one. It's one of the only actual bi-partisan beliefs there are these days. Not a single person thinks how money in politics currently is, is a good thing. The only argument you can make is that it's a necessary evil in an arms race but I believe there's just so much diminishing returns lately it's worth pondering if it's even useful in its current state.

Turnout wasn't depressed because neither candidate really broached the issue, and the race was nationalized. It became a massive deal and all anyone who lives in that district I'm sure this election is literally all they have heard about over the last few months

 

[Blader]

Why? The truths are horrific and provable:

"They don't care if your kid dies of cancer when you lose your job."


"They think it's OK for black people to get shot by cops"

"They think teachers should carry sidearms in classrooms."

"They think food stamps are a luxury."

Dems don't even need to lie about Republicans, they just need to go for the jugular with the truth. Like, Randy Bryce needs to ask Ryan why he's trying to kill Bryce's mother.

These truths aren't moving enough people.

This also goes back to my "it's the messenger, not the message" argument.

 

[kirblar]

Actual polling from Quinnipiac on VA- https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2467

From June 15 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,145 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

Wide gender and racial gaps mark the first post-primary survey of the Virginia governor's race, as Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam leads Republican Ed Gillespie 47 - 39 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In another boost for Democrats, Virginia voters say 48 - 41 percent that they would like to see the Democrats in control of the State Legislature.

Only 25 percent of Virginia voters are more likely to vote for a candidate for governor who supports President Donald Trump, while 46 percent are less likely to vote for a Trump supporter and 28 percent say Trump support will have no impact on their vote for governor.

 

[whyamihere]

+8 is fine, though I'd really like to see Northam clearing 50% in polls.

 

[RustyNails]

If democrats go down the scorched earth route, media will be complaining about the "tone" and how politics is so awful these days, both sides etc. Even if scorched earth tactics involve pointing out the obvious, like removing x provision results in you killing y number of people. Alan Grayson was pretty good at these kinds of games.

 

[Autodidact]

Is "cut wasteful spending" the most bland and uninspiring of campaign promises?

I level the same criticism at Ossoff that I level at every politician: he said nothing of substance. "Make your voice heard" offers cheap sentimentality without conveying the true importance of voting; "I'll cut wasteful spending" makes a nebulous promise without delineating any concrete plans or explaining how. Politicians seldom give specifics because they fear they'll be held to them later. I like policy. I want explanations, not Hallmark-card cliches that attempt to sway my emotions and make me feel warm.

Before anyone "both sides" me: Democrats rarely speak substantively, but Republicans never speak intelligently.

I understand why politics operates this way, though. Anti-intellectualism pervades this country's history. Anytime someone uses a polysyllabic word, anytime someone addresses a policy in minute detail, anytime someone sounds remotely intellectual and not "genuine" (as though someone can't be genuinely intellectual), he or she loses. Anytime someone abandons hackneyed phrases and simple language, he or she loses. The rubes, resentful and insecure, punish anyone who displays even remote interest in book learnin'. Republicans naturally speak like morons, but if Democrats want to survive, they have to simplify their expression and their platforms.

Read about the elections of '52 and '56. Adlai Stevenson, dubbed an "egghead" intellectual unable to relate to the common man, lost twice. Since then we've never had an intellectual campaign. Even Obama, a smart man personally, ran a campaign on maudlin "hope and change" because he had to. I see people hyping Gillibrand and Harris not for their academic and intellectual achievements but for their youth, looks, attitude, and ability to hype the base. We continue to perpetuate a politics of theater and vapidity even if we have our hearts in the right place.

More of a generalized rant than about this election specifically.

Politics became dumber and more about the warm fuzzies after World War II. Before then anti-intellectualism had been cyclical: we'd have periods where people extolled the virtues and talents of "the common man" who "deserved a turn," but then the common man fucked up and people embraced experience again (cf. the Pendleton Act during Arthur's presidency). Mass culture and celebrity culture since World War II have allowed anti-intellectualism to become constant and unrelenting, even resulting in the election of actual dumb celebrities. You might say, "But we have experienced politicians," but even they have to speak simply and like "real Americans" lest they be perceived as elitist and out-of-touch. The late Gore Vidal once said, in relation to the Kennedy era onward, "I have not heard a politician in this country say something intelligent in thirty years."

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Politics became dumber and more about the warm fuzzies after World War II.

So basically after politics went big on the radio

 

[smokeymicpot]

Senate whip Cornyn says he expects a CBO score on the health bill Friday, just *one day* after the bill is released. Vote next week.

https://twitter.com/pdmcleod/status/877571208816074752

This is it.

 

[Autodidact]

So basically after politics went big on the radio

Yes. Radio finally brought the flowering of mass, national culture. People even in the sticks now had access to politics and news. And of course, if people know a little bit, they immediately deem themselves experts. We all have that uncle.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Politics became dumber and more about the warm fuzzies after World War II. Before then anti-intellectualism had been cyclical: we'd have periods where people extolled the virtues and talents of "the common man" who "deserved a turn," but then the common man fucked up and people embraced experience again (cf. the Pendleton Act during Arthur's presidency). Mass culture and celebrity culture since World War II have allowed anti-intellectualism to become constant and unrelenting, even resulting in the election of actual dumb celebrities. You might say, "But we have experienced politicians," but even they have to speak simply and like "real Americans" lest they be perceived as elitist and out-of-touch. The late Gore Vidal once said, in relation to the Kennedy era onward, "I have not heard a politician in this country say something intelligent in thirty years."

I don't think your history is quite right here, civil service reform wasn't about promoting technocracy, it was to curb the power of political machines and ending patronage jobs.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Yes. Radio finally brought the flowering of mass, national culture. People even in the sticks now had access to politics and news. And of course, if people know a little bit, they immediately deem themselves experts. We all have that uncle.

(We have an entire thread of those uncles)

 

[Aaron Strife]

Actual polling from Quinnipiac on VA- https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2467

Decent re-elect numbers for Kaine, too, 47/38. Just a point off from the head to head numbers between Northam and Gillepsie.

Good generic ballot numbers too which also track pretty closely to the gubernatorial race. Should be able to flip a few seats.

 

[The Technomancer]

This topic has come up before, but do we need to bring back political pork?

 

[Sirpopopop]

Literally no one likes candidates who are blatantly bank rolled by big money interests. No one. It's one of the only actual bi-partisan beliefs there are these days. Not a single person thinks how money in politics currently is, is a good thing. The only argument you can make is that it's a necessary evil in an arms race but I believe there's just so much diminishing returns lately it's worth pondering if it's even useful in its current state.

Turnout wasn't depressed because neither candidate really broached the issue, and the race was nationalized. It became a massive deal and all anyone who lives in that district I'm sure this election is literally all they have heard about over the last few months

According to this logic, no one likes candidates who are bought by big money interests. Therefore, everyone in the district hated both candidates.

Again if no one liked either candidate since they were bought by big money interests, then why bother voting.

Shouldn't the fact that there were tons of ads already have brought this voter's minds?

Shouldn't the fact that there was a fair bit of reporting on the fact that this race was the most expensive House race in history also brought this to voter's minds?

I think you are completely dismissing the fact that voters vote for other reasons than "big money interests."

I mean, if "big money interests" was such a turnoff than Giaforte should've lost your to boy Quist. He did not. He lost by a bigger margin in a district that has proven more reliably than GA-06 to vote Democrat. The Goldman Sachs tax attorney, whom is the epitome of "bought and paid for" did better than both.

I'm not really sure "bought and paid for" actually matters in this Republican-leaning districts.

 

[kirblar]

Decent re-elect numbers for Kaine, too, 47/38. Just a point off from the head to head numbers between Northam and Gillepsie.

Good generic ballot numbers too which also track pretty closely to the gubernatorial race. Should be able to flip a few seats.

It's also nearly the same 47/36 margin for McAulliffe's job approval.

This topic has come up before, but do we need to bring back political pork?

Probably.

 

[studyguy]

I'm gonna just assume the bill passes the senate, the house folds like a stack of cards. Medicaid repeal is out 7 years as mentioned earlier for either: Someone to challenge and reverse course before then, or long enough for people to blame whoever is sitting when it explodes.

Either way we're boned in the short term.

 

[Ogodei]

I don't think your history is quite right here, civil service reform wasn't about promoting technocracy, it was to curb the power of political machines and ending patronage jobs.

Garfield was a very wonkish President, though, even if he wasn't all that elitist (a schoolteacher by profession, i think).

Ironically it was Arthur, a product of the New York GOP machine, who passed the act.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This topic has come up before, but do we need to bring back political pork?

Yes

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Something else that hurt Dems is again a very non-competitive primary in GA-6. In two ways, if we had a competitive primary it would have been easier for two people to get 24% and have no Republican in runoff. But also, that meant Ossoff fatigue had set in even quicker for voters.

There are lessons for the Dems to learn from last night but this isn't one of them. Given that Ossoff's vote share actually went down slightly its pretty clear that getting above 50% the first round was our best shot at the seat. Trying for some double bank shot where the Dems manage to go 1-2 despite being a minority in the district is too clever by half.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

This topic has come up before, but do we need to bring back political pork?

Yes, 100%.

But too bad everyone hates pork as an abstract but loooooves pork for their own district or state.

 

[Autodidact]

I don't think your history is quite right here, civil service reform wasn't about promoting technocracy, it was to curb the power of political machines and ending patronage jobs.

I'll quote from Richard Hofstadter's Anti-Intellectualism in American Life, pg. 179 (emphasis added):

The idea of civil-service reform brought into direct opposition the credo of the professional politicians, who put their faith in party organization and party rewards and the practice of rotation in office, and the ideals of the reformers, who wanted competence, efficiency, and economy in the public service, open competition for jobs on the basis of merit, and security of tenure.

Before the Pendleton Act, civil-service jobs had been given on the basis of "everyone deserves a turn" (well, if you supported the party). This system assumed that anyone, no matter how dumb, could effectively function in a complicated, bureaucratic role. Such assumptions - primarily the one that "life experience" automatically trumped education and competence - epitomized ant-intellectualism. By introducing a meritocratic system, the Pendleton Act assured that erudite civil servants could perform their jobs without fear of being replaced by "Dave who can't read good but ran a farm so he can run government." The act ended one of our cycles of anti-intellectualism.

 

[Tarydax]

These truths aren't moving enough people.

This also goes back to my "it's the messenger, not the message" argument.

But what Democratic politicians are out there (rightly) accusing Republicans of attempted murder? Democratic criticism across the board has been light when compared to what the Republicans have been doing for decades. You still have Democrats going on air and talking about how nice Jeff Sessions was to them or how they get along with _____ who is actively trying to kill their constituents.

If democrats go down the scorched earth route, media will be complaining about the "tone" and how politics is so awful these days, both sides etc. Even if scorched earth tactics involve pointing out the obvious, like removing x provision results in you killing y number of people. Alan Grayson was pretty good at these kinds of games.

They were already using that both-sides-are-the-same line, though. Our media wants everything to be a horse race. You could have the cleanest possible candidate run against Trump, and a minor slip of the tongue or the slightest hint of corruption would be held up as evidence that both candidates are similar.

Democrats need to stop being so afraid of calling out our mythical liberal media. If the media complains about the tone, Democrats need to remind them that it's the Republicans who are trying to kill Americans and that it's the Republicans that are inciting violence against reporters. One side wants people to die, the other side doesn't. Have people on air getting indignant when people say Democrats are the same as Republicans. I will say that this would have the potential to backfire given how reporters seem to get more offended by reasonable criticism from the left than they do by actual threats or acts of violence by Republicans (IIRC there were more NYT reporters on twitter complaining about people unsubscribing due to that awful global warming article than there were about Trump actually threatening them).

 

[nature boy]

NATO jet approached plane carrying Russian defense minister, reports say

MOSCOW — A NATO F-16 fighter approached and was then warned away from a jet carrying Russia’s defense minister, Russian media reported Wednesday, the latest in a string of aerial incidents that have marked rising tensions between the West and Russia.

The incident occurred over the Baltic Sea in northeast Europe, according to reporters traveling with the defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, in international airspace crowded with Russian and NATO jets testing one another’s nerve in close — sometimes dangerously — proximity.

But no incidents yet had involved high-ranking members of the Russian or U.S. government on board.

There was no immediate comment from NATO, which has been conducting military exercises in Eastern Europe, nor was it clear which nation was flying the NATO warplane. The alliance’s press office responded to phone calls with a press statement concerning NATO intercepts of Russian aircraft last week.

Shoigu landed in Kaliningrad on Wednesday.

Also:

 

[whyamihere]

Pork is good. Bring it back.

NATO jet approached plane carrying Russian defense minister, reports say





Also:

"Access to care" fuck off turtle.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

NATO jet approached plane carrying Russian defense minister, reports say





Also:

These are all such slimy statements because they still use the "access to care" line which means nothing if it covers nothing.

these people are sentencing people to die

 

[Kevinroc]

Also:

Anyone surprised to see the GOP is still lying about them sending thousands of people to die, removing health care from millions, so they can give the very rich a tax cut?