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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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S

shinra-bansho

Member
Bullshit.
No one goes to bumfuck, Iowa, by choice unless they're running for President.
And it's nobody's kind of place.

It's the same reason Zuckerberg found religion this year.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
lol the new intellectual conservative talking point is that it's Ridiculous to say that people will die from the AHCA and Actually, Medicaid Is Bad.

These people are awful.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
whyamihere said:
lol the new intellectual conservative talking point is that it's Ridiculous to say that people will die from the AHCA and Actually, Medicaid Is Bad.

These people are awful.
Click to expand...
Experts: Here's how many people are going to die if you do this
Left and Liberals: People are going to die if you do this!
Republicans: omg the discourse is out of hand why can't you just disagree
 
P

Pyrokai

Member
Also if Trump gets another SCOTUS nominee, we are forever fucked. It would literally be difficult for me to find the energy to fight for change if I know it's all for naught.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Pyrokai said:
Also if Trump gets another SCOTUS nominee, we are forever fucked. It would literally be difficult for me to find the energy to fight for change if I know it's all for naught.
Click to expand...

Losing Kennedy wouldn't hurt that much aside from gay rights, tbh. Guy already has a dim view of more or less everything else, and it was Roberts who saved Obamacare.

And you're not going to reverse Obergefell at this point, basically impossible to put that back in the box, logistically (how would states annul all of those marriages? Imagine a wave of involuntary divorces happening all at once, nightmare for an overpacked court system).

It's Ginsburg dying that would screw us for the first half of the 21st century and basically require court-packing to undo.

Edit: the other alternative is also having congress basically wipe the slate clean on the lower court system and rebuild. Fire everyone in the circuits in the name of "modernizing" the circuit system, and stuff the whole thing with liberal justices.
 
Emerson

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
Gay marriage is a done deal regardless of what happens on the supreme court. The window of public opinion on that issue has shifted so much in the last few years it's way beyond reversing.

Nobody except the absolute farthest right maniacs gives a shit anymore. Not even the alt right really cares about it. Gay people are so mainstream now that even your grandparents have probably accepted it's a fact of life.

Trump sure as shit doesn't care about it, and the public support for such a massive overturn simply isn't there.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Emerson said:
Gay marriage is a done deal regardless of what happens on the supreme court. The window of public opinion on that issue has shifted so much in the last few years it's way beyond reversing.

Nobody except the absolute farthest right maniacs gives a shit anymore. Not even the alt right really cares about it. Gay people are so mainstream now that even your grandparents have probably accepted it's a fact of life.

Trump sure as shit doesn't care about it, and the public support for such a massive overturn simply isn't there.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if not for the Pulse shooting, LGBT people would barely have been mentioned during the campaign. I mean that in a good way: we've become so mainstream and accepted and no longer stoke such political controversy. Compare last year to 2004 or even 2008.

Religion also played a less prominent role because even though evangelicals supported Trump for catering to their prejudices, even they couldn't pretend he was actually devout.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Ogodei said:
Losing Kennedy wouldn't hurt that much aside from gay rights, tbh. Guy already has a dim view of more or less everything else, and it was Roberts who saved Obamacare.
.
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Kennedy retiring would be a complete disaster. Roberts has only split with the conservative majority when it involved deferring to the Obama administration on areas like the ACA. He would presumably continue to defer to Trump on major issues that aren't clearly unconstitutional. Here's a right wing overview of the key areas Kennedy is the swing vote on. Take him away and they almost all become locks for conservatives:

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/justice-kennedy-once-future-swing-vote
 
L

LostMyNarbles

Member
Autodidact said:
Yeah, if not for the Pulse shooting, LGBT people would barely have been mentioned during the campaign. I mean that in a good way: we've become so mainstream and accepted and no longer stoke such political controversy. Compare last year to 2004 or even 2008.

Religion also played a less prominent role because even though evangelicals supported Trump for catering to their prejudices, even they couldn't pretend he was actually devout.
Click to expand...
Maybe gay rights are more widely accepted, but I don't think transgender rights are in a good spot right now. There is still way too much hate and bigotry as displayed by more and more conservative states trying to push for bathroom bill crap.

Likewise the conservatives I know seem okay with gay people, but do not seem at all comfortable with transgender people.
 
S

smokeandmirrors

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Bullshit.
No one goes to bumfuck, Iowa, by choice unless they're running for President.
And it's nobody's kind of place.

It's the same reason Zuckerberg found religion this year.
Click to expand...

which i dont understand. trump winning threw every established principle. not like trump is religious at all and that didnt stop evangelicals from voting him.

but then again i guess it only matters if the candidate you like hates women, minorities, abortion, and liberals so who the fuck knows at this point.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Ogodei said:
Losing Kennedy wouldn't hurt that much aside from gay rights, tbh. Guy already has a dim view of more or less everything else, and it was Roberts who saved Obamacare.

And you're not going to reverse Obergefell at this point, basically impossible to put that back in the box, logistically (how would states annul all of those marriages? Imagine a wave of involuntary divorces happening all at once, nightmare for an overpacked court system).

It's Ginsburg dying that would screw us for the first half of the 21st century and basically require court-packing to undo.

Edit: the other alternative is also having congress basically wipe the slate clean on the lower court system and rebuild. Fire everyone in the circuits in the name of "modernizing" the circuit system, and stuff the whole thing with liberal justices.
Click to expand...

Ummm he's probably the only one protecting Roe v Wade too...
 
K

kirblar

Member
smokeandmirrors said:
which i dont understand. trump winning threw every established principle. not like trump is religious at all and that didnt stop evangelicals from voting him.

but then again i guess it only matters if the candidate you like hates women, minorities, abortion, and liberals so who the fuck knows at this point.
Click to expand...
Yes, this is why Zuck is running. But Zuck understands this only at a surface level. The Dems aren't the GOP, and the forces that propelled Bernie and Obama (who ran w/ different coalitions) are not looking for a guy like him.
whyamihere said:
In other news, Trump's numbers are underwater. In Texas.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/878282629199478784

Approve Strongly: 25
Approve Somewhat: 18
Neither Approve Nor Disapprove: 6
Disapprove Somewhat: 7
Disapprove Strongly: 44
Don't Know: 1

Oops.
Click to expand...
Let's hope the Cruz hits an iceberg.
 
T

tuxfool

Banned
KeXPRc8.png
Click to expand...

U21V3j4.jpg
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/yashar/status/878437465282953216

yup.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
I'd laugh if Democrats reclaimed the Senate, a justice retired, and Democrats gave Trump's nominees hearings... only to reject them because he wouldn't nominate a moderate/liberal other than his sister. They could finally get payback for the Garland bullshit and claim that, unlike Republicans, they fulfilled their Constitutional duty.

On weekends I dream.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Kennedy specifically said he wouldn't retire under obama due to his views on abortion.

Him retiring before 2020 in an inevitability. But I think he might want to wait a while. See if anything crazy with Trump happens that he might need to step in on, and also, see if he likes Gorsuch.
 
K

kirblar

Member
B-Dubs said:
They missed out and got left behind, like Blockbuster. Their death is 100% on their management not making the moves they should have made.
Click to expand...
Blockbuster passed on acquiring Netflix, tried their own version, but it was too late.

But the company didn't go out kicking and screaming - they acknowledged what was happening and wound it down appropriately.
jtb said:
Zuckerberg poached Plouffe away from Uber too.
Click to expand...
Plouffe: "You mean I can get paid to help run a campaign for the guy who's going to take the heat in 2020 for our real candidate? Sweeeet."
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Kennedy specifically said he wouldn't retire under obama due to his views on abortion.

Him retiring before 2020 in an inevitability. But I think he might want to wait a while. See if anything crazy with Trump happens that he might need to step in on, and also, see if he likes Gorsuch.
Click to expand...

He'll want to see if the gerrymandering case through.
 
L

Loxley

Member
Let's say hypothetically that Kennedy doesn't retire until after the 2018 midterms, and lets also say that Democrats take back the House in 2018 - would that give Dems the power to hold off another ultra-conservative Trump appointee?
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Loxley said:
Let's say hypothetically that Kennedy doesn't retire until after the 2018 midterms, and lets also say that Democrats take back the House in 2018 - would that give Dems the power to hold off another ultra-conservative Trump appointee?
Click to expand...

No, they need the Senate. The House has no power over judicial appointments.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
That's why these polls from Texas give me some hope. If we defeat Cruz, then we've already defeated Heller and Flake, both far easier targets in a blue and purple-blue state, respectively. And if the wave is large enough to claim Cruz, the red-state Democrats should be able to hang on.

Again, a much smaller chance than reclaiming the House, but not a zero-percent chance.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
And I'll Pray 4 Beto because he decided to be unnecessarily principled and shun corporate donations... in a year when everybody hates Trump and no one would give a fuck where he got his money.
 
T

Teggy

Member
tbf that's a good looking sandwich.

It sounds like their plan is to hold off on a provision that requires a 6 month wait after a break in coverage to fake out the CBO.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Autodidact said:
That's why these polls from Texas give me some hope. If we defeat Cruz, then we've already defeated Heller and Flake, both far easier targets in a blue and purple-blue state, respectively. And if the wave is large enough to claim Cruz, the red-state Democrats should be able to hang on.

Again, a much smaller chance than reclaiming the House, but not a zero-percent chance.
Click to expand...

Arizona's maybe purple-red by now. Maybe. Texas is encouraging because the only thing Cruz has going for him are his evangelical bona fides. Everyone hates him otherwise.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Yglesias points out a real issue w/ CA's ability to fund single-payer:
@mattyglesias

Matthew Yglesias Retweeted alon_levy

Because of Prop 98, there’s basically no way to do single payer in California without a ballot initiative anyway.
Click to expand...
Here's Prop '98, which gets really awkward when you try to massively expand the state budget - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_98_(1988)
California Proposition 98 requires a minimum percentage of the state budget to be spent on K-12 education. Prop 98 guarantees an annual increase in education in the California budget.
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And as a bonus, here's the really awful Prop 13! (that should have shattered anyone's faith in referendums long before Brexit rolled around) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(1978)
Proposition 13 declared property taxes were to be assessed their 1975 value and restricted annual increases of the tax to an inflation factor, not to exceed 2% per year. A reassessment of the property tax can only be made a) when the property ownership changes or b) there is construction done.[2]
Click to expand...
This encourages people to hold onto their homes far longer than they should, penalizes new buyers, and does all sorts of awful things to the state's ability to raise money through normal means.
 
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