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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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S

studyguy

Member
Fenderputty said:
Maybe? They'll still be forced to appeal to his nationalist base that's basically only upset he's feuding with Sessions.

Like I agree the eGOP will want to distance themselves, but I'm not sure the base will let them.
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Can't imagine anything other than FOX and co simply making an about face, dumping on him hard and leaving him in the dust. If Trump has no media chasing him post election, he has nothing. I'd be willing to wager the establishment working with whatever conservative media to just blow him off.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
I'm really not sold that he would even want to run again after 4 years of nonstop harassment (in his eyes) from the media.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
You have to stay above 35 approval to remain president right. It's in the constitution you have to be 35 or over.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
studyguy said:
Can't imagine anything other than FOX and co simply making an about face, dumping on him hard and leaving him in the dust. If Trump has no media chasing him post election, he has nothing. I'd be willing to wager the establishment working with whatever conservative media to just blow him off.
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Like I fully expect this to be the outcome. I'm just not sure his base will drop him as easily as the entirety of the GOP dropped Bush. He stoked the flames of white nationalism in ways no other GOP politician has.

Like how is the next GOP politician going to be able to escape this shadow? If he loses in 2020 what platform do they run on in 2024? Will Trump's crazed base tuck tail and go home?
 
T

Teggy

Member
Reading the mirror world twitter is always crazy

Laura Ingraham @IngrahamAngle
Hilarious @cnnpolitics @acosta schooled by Stephen Miller abt both immig policy & historical significance of Statue of Liberty.
3:23 PM · Aug 2, 2017
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T

tuxfool

Banned
Futurevoid said:
Looks like McMaster fired Ezra Cohen Watnick from the NSC....

https://www.conservativereview.com/...red-from-nsc-sources-say#sthash.boutfp3c.uxfs

Of course that article wraps an "only Evil Obama leftovers are on the NSC!" context around it but it's news. You'll remember him as one of the sources of the documents that Devin Nunes used to start the whole unmasking fiasco.
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Interesting.

Apparently McMaster had tried to get rid of him before:

McMaster has faced setbacks on policy, with a recent NSC plan for Afghanistan being initially rejected by the President. He has been the frequent subject of speculation about whether his job is safe, fueled by unflattering leaks, such as a recent AP story that detailed his having disagreed with Trump on Russia in conversations with foreign officials. Earlier this year, his attempt to fire Ezra Cohen-Watnick, the NSC's top intelligence official, was blocked by Bannon, Jared Kushner, and Trump.
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https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...-forced-out-over-a-controversial-memo/535725/
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Yes the Watnick near-firing beinf blocked months ago is a well-known story. Only reason he was kept around was because he's a trump loyalist.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Russia trolling harrrrrrrrrd

Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE
The Trump administration has shown its total weakness by handing over executive power to Congress in the most humiliating way
4:38 PM · Aug 2, 2017
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S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
https://www.vox.com/2017/8/2/16075404/donald-trump-jr-russia-investigation-mueller-obstruction

I reached out to 12 law professors and asked them about the potential legal implications of this report. In particular, I wanted to know if this advances the obstruction of justice case against President Trump.

The overwhelming consensus is that if Trump did dictate false statements about his son’s meeting in order to deceive the public and throw off investigators, it would add to a “growing mountain of evidence” that points to a broader cover-up. As Samuel Gross, a law professor at the University of Michigan, put it: “It’s another brick that could someday be part of a wall that proves obstruction of justice.”
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P

pigeon

Banned
Immigration discussions should really start from the position of just having open borders and work backwards from there in terms of necessary and appropriate restrictions.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Barzul said:
How the fuck will they do that without Obamacare savings?
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By making them temporary, probably.

They could totally get 8 Democrats on board with this - the red staters and moderates like Carper or King - but McConnell is a desperate, angry little man and it worked so well last time.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
Futurevoid said:
Looks like McMaster fired Ezra Cohen Watnick from the NSC....

https://www.conservativereview.com/...red-from-nsc-sources-say#sthash.boutfp3c.uxfs

Of course that article wraps an "only Evil Obama leftovers are on the NSC!" context around it but it's news. You'll remember him as one of the sources of the documents that Devin Nunes used to start the whole unmasking fiasco.
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Yeah, very interesting.

Ezra Cohen-Watnick, the senior director for intelligence on the National Security Council, has been dismissed from the White House, two senior administration officials who are not authorized to discuss personnel matters told Conservative Review on Wednesday.

Cohen-Watnick, 31, was originally brought on board by former NSC chief Gen. Michael Flynn.

National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster has, in the past, attempted to rid the council of Cohen-Watnick, but was overruled by President Trump, Steve Bannon, and Jared Kushner.

He has been described as an ”Iran hawk" who wanted to revamp counter-Iran efforts in the Middle East, and sought to reform the intelligence community to rein in the ”deep state" of unaccountable bureaucrats with rogue agendas.

Cohen-Watnick is the latest Trump loyalist to be fired by Gen. McMaster, whose security council continues to be overwhelmingly staffed with Obama holdovers (almost all of whom have retained their positions).
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McMaster isn't putting up with Trump's shit.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Can you do temporary tax cuts via reconciliation? Basically balance the books 10 years out by having the cut sunset? I know the Bush cuts were temporary, but i didn't know if they were reconciliation or not.
 
B

Barzul

Member
Aaron Strife said:
By making them temporary, probably.

They could totally get 8 Democrats on board with this - the red staters and moderates like Carper or King - but McConnell is a desperate, angry little man and it worked so well last time.
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JettDash said:
Making them temporary. Or maybe he's a big enough idiot that he will try to do the radical Medicaid cuts in the tax reform bill.
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If it's temporary it isn't reform and it's basically just Bush tax cuts MK II
 
J

JettDash

Junior Member
Ogodei said:
Can you do temporary tax cuts via reconciliation? Basically balance the books 10 years out by having the cut sunset? I know the Bush cuts were temporary, but i didn't know if they were reconciliation or not.
Click to expand...

Yes the Bush tax cuts were passed with reconciliation. The reconciliation rules state that you cannot increase the deficit for more than ten years.

If they were able to pass the Bush tax cuts with a regular bill, there would have been no sunset.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Barzul said:
If it's temporary it isn't reform and it's basically just Bush tax cuts MK II
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So, this is true, but there's actually some intelligence here because "temporary" is very rarely meaningful.

If the GOP controls the government when the tax cuts come around, they'll just extend them.

If the Democrats control the government at any point, they'll just end the cuts.

So there's not much difference between temporary and permanent in most situations.

The specific counter example is when we have divided government at the moment the tax cuts expire, which is what happened at the end of 2012. But I suspect the odds are pretty high that something will change before 2017 anyway, so why worry about the future?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Barzul said:
If it's temporary it isn't reform and it's basically just Bush tax cuts MK II
Click to expand...
That's true and that's what I expect it to come down to. It won't be the draconian fantasy Ryan and co have dreamt of but I don't think they'll say no to a simple rate cut.

I'd rather they pass nothing so Trump is embarrassed once again, but if they do get something passed I'd want nothing more than for Democrats to repeal it as soon as they get Congress and the presidency again as a means of making something else budget neutral. The opposite of what the GOP tried to do with healthcare, essentially - repealing Trump's tax cuts to pay for a Medicare expansion. Or to fund a trillion dollar infrastructure bill for an easy, early win.

TBH this is what Obama should have done with the stimulus bill, immediately repeal the Bush tax cuts for high earners to give it a better CBO score while permanently extending the rest.
 
P

Pedrito

Member
Cohen-Watnick's wife did PR work for the Russian government.

Meanwhile, Cohen-Watnick was getting married to a woman who, like Flynn and several other Trump aides, had ties to Russia. Rebecca Miller, four years younger than Cohen-Watnick, had worked on the Russian account in the D.C. office of Ketchum, the global powerhouse lobbying and public relations firm, according to her mother, Victoria Fraser, head of Washington University's Department of Medicine in St. Louis. During a 2014 event at the State Historical Society of Missouri, Fraser said her daughter's ”big challenges right now are, Ketchum is responsible for providing PR and marketing to try to make Russia look better, which is particularly difficult when they're invading other countries and when Putin is somewhat out of control." Ketchum took a public relations blow when ProPublica reported that it had ”placed pro-Russia op-eds in American publications by businesspeople and others without disclosing the role of the Russian government." The following year, it drew flak for placing an op-ed purporting to be written by Russian President Vladimir Putin in The New York Times arguing that Syrian rebels, not President Bashar al-Assad, were responsible for chemical attacks on civilians. According to a Ketchum spokesperson, Miller's work on the Russia account ended in September 2012. The company severed its ties with the Russian Federation in March 2015.
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http://www.newsweek.com/ezra-cohen-...unes-russia-barack-obama-wiretap-susan-583904

It never stops...
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I have a super, super hot take.

Scaramucci's communications plan memo actually seems...pretty good. Professional, reasonable, might have actually helped make things smoother for Trump.

It's just too bad he did all that coke I guess.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
By making them temporary, probably.

They could totally get 8 Democrats on board with this - the red staters and moderates like Carper or King - but McConnell is a desperate, angry little man and it worked so well last time.
Click to expand...

I feel like they're going to have to toss some more meat to the middle and lower class with their tax reform before dems start signing on. Maybe I'm misreading things though.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
JettDash said:
Would Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe have voted for such a bill?
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Eh, I suppose not. Specter probably wouldn't have either.

Fenderputty said:
I feel like they're going to have to toss some more meat to the middle and lower class with their tax reform before dems start signing on. Maybe I'm misreading things though.
Click to expand...
And I think that just exposes the whole charade there. It's always been just about giving the wealthy more money.

They don't want the Democrats involved because there might actually be something that benefits the lower and middle class. The horrors! And at the expense of letting some billionaire buy a third yacht.
 
J

jtb

Banned
pigeon said:
I have a super, super hot take.

Scaramucci's communications plan memo actually seems...pretty good. Professional, reasonable, might have actually helped make things smoother for Trump.

It's just too bad he did all that coke I guess.
Click to expand...

link?
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Fenderputty said:
I feel like they're going to have to toss some more meat to the middle and lower class with their tax reform before dems start signing on. Maybe I'm misreading things though.
Click to expand...

I feel like their plan had *some* meat in it for the lower and middle class (aside from the efforts to eliminate a lot of deductions to screw over people like student debtors).

Give the average American a $4,000 check and i think enough people would be happy.
 
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