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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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H

Hubbl3

Unconfirmed Member
SatelliteOfLove said:
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand theres the G Word!

In his mind, this about them stealing spotlight.
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Trump always gotta be the center of attention

lWV9Wns.gif
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L

Lord_Byron28

Member
Remember a year ago when people were concerned that Trump was speaking like a Fascist inciting Nazis. Moderates responded saying the comparison was uncalled for and extreme. Yet here we are in 2017.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Might be too much to hope for, but I want another 2 point drop on Gallup today.
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I mean actual polls likely won't fall too much... It's probably just Ras getting hit with a big dose of reality and having to align with the rest of the polling. Who knows though, this weekend was basically Trump running headlong into a pile of shit.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Lord_Byron28 said:
Remember a year ago when people were concerned that Trump was speaking like a Fascist inciting Nazis. Moderates responded saying the comparison was uncalled for and extreme. Yet here we are in 2017.
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Who exactly are these moderates? I'm slightly confused, because the people who were shouting about Trump the most were also the loudest Hillary supporters? And they are apparently the most evil scum of the earth?

In fact, wasn't it the further left wing folks like Michael Moore, various Bernie supporters, saying we need to understand the white working class issues and that we shouldn't be assuming it was racism?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
studyguy said:
I mean actual polls likely won't fall too much... It's probably just Ras getting hit with a big dose of reality and having to align with the rest of the polling. Who knows though, this weekend was basically Trump running headlong into a pile of shit.
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It was steadily 36-37 for the past week or so, to have a 2-point drop overnight suggests Sunday's sample was really bad for him, like 30% approval or so. Get another two like that and that's where we'll see him.

Today we'll know whether that was just volatility or if people are actually jumping ship after the "refuses to condemn Nazis" episode.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
studyguy said:
I mean actual polls likely won't fall too much... It's probably just Ras getting hit with a big dose of reality and having to align with the rest of the polling. Who knows though, this weekend was basically Trump running headlong into a pile of shit.
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Well, Trump fell several points to hit a new low in Gallup once responses from Sunday rolled on. I think refusing to condemn Nazis actually was too much for some voters.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
The presidency is unraveling. There may be some bounces but the overall trend is well established at this point.

Watch for missiles to get launched somewhere within weeks. That dog doesn't wag itself.
 
L

Loxley

Member
"I was just taken to the cleaners by every major news outlet in the country and people from both sides of the aisle for not immediately condemning neo-Nazis, I was also accused of inciting violence and being complicit in said violence. So I think I'm now the best thing for me to do is to re-tweet an cartoon of a CNN reporter being run-over by a train. That aught to convince people I'm against violence."

You can not make this shit up.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Beer Monkey said:
The presidency is unraveling. There may be some bounces but the overall trend is well established at this point.

Watch for missiles to get launched somewhere within weeks. That dog doesn't wag itself.
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Can't wait for Trump to announce military action and all the dumbass alt-righters to come out of the woodwork on OT with hot takes such as "You said Trump was SO TERRIBLE, but do you disagree there should have been nukes dropped on Uzbekibekistan?"

1) Yes
2) Even if I agreed that doesn't counteract being a terrible president in every other regard?

whyamihere said:
What was W's low in Gallup?
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25%
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Loxley said:
"I was just taken to the cleaners by every major news outlet in the country and people from both sides of the aisle for not immediately condemning neo-Nazis, I was also accused of inciting violence and being complicit in said violence. So I think I'm now the best thing for me to do is to re-tweet an cartoon of a CNN reporter being run-over by a train. That aught to convince people I'm against violence."

You can not make this shit up.
Click to expand...

He has shown a pattern where when he is uncomfortable or has taken heat, he immediately runs back to the group that will give him the most applause and lick his wounds. At this point, it's the far right nuts that will do the job for him and that picture was a direct reach-out to that group.
 
B

Blader

Member
Plinko said:
He has shown a pattern where when he is uncomfortable or has taken heat, he immediately runs back to the group that will give him the most applause and lick his wounds. At this point, it's the far right nuts that will do the job for him and that picture was a direct reach-out to that group.
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As much as I enjoy seeing Trump's approvals continue to fall month after month, one of the dangers of a rapidly unpopular president with a severe narcissistic complex is that the worse his polls become, the more he's going to retreat further and further into his base and direct more of his decisions toward them. Commentators like to say that a president with 40 percent, let alone 20-30 percent, approval ratings does not have a mandate to govern, but Trump is just going to keep shifting so that all he cares about is governing for his 30 percent base.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Loxley said:
"I was just taken to the cleaners by every major news outlet in the country and people from both sides of the aisle for not immediately condemning neo-Nazis, I was also accused of inciting violence and being complicit in said violence. So I think I'm now the best thing for me to do is to re-tweet an cartoon of a CNN reporter being run-over by a train. That aught to convince people I'm against violence."

You can not make this shit up.
Click to expand...
Trump doesn't think like that, or thinks more than a few seconds at most. I'd be surprised if he even realized why people were upset. In his mind he's winning and is the best president, so the media critical of him are just sore losers who want to bring him down. The whole Nazi violence over the weekend was not really about right and wrong or even free speech for that matter, but Trump's enemies using the violence that unfolded to bring him down (because they're mean and desperate). This is why Trump will NOT be cowed into singing the media's tunes of denouncing White Supremacist agitators. That is not a "win".

Eventually someone in White House somehow reaches his Hippocampus and makes him read a teleprompter that somewhat addresses the issue. But it's fake as hell and too late. Since he never really cared for any of it to begin with, it's back to his daily Trump vs The World shenanigans.
 
F

Futurevoid

Member
Turnout is extremely low for the Alabama for the Senate special election...

John Archibald‏Verified account
@JohnArchibald
Follow

Ala. Sec. of State John @JohnHMerrill says turnout is poor all over state. "if trend continues it could be as low as 10-15% max." #democracy
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A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
This weekend i said it was too slippery of a slope to censor the media in any way, after watching fox news the last few days, i humbly admit that i was wrong. Fuck these nazi sympathetic motherfuckers and thier whataboutism.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
ArkhamFantasy said:
This weekend i said it was too slippery of a slope to censor the media in any way, after watching fox news the last few days, i humbly admit that i was wrong. Fuck these nazi sympathetic motherfuckers and thier whataboutism.
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They've been terrible for a while and have gotten worse. They ramped it up during the end of Obama's last couple of years and now it seems like they are full-blown state media.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
In case anyone was wondering, the ADL did a study early this year determining that between 2007 and 2016, the vast majority of extremist-caused deaths were by the far right.

Over the past 10 years (2007-2016), domestic extremists of all kinds have killed at least 372 people in the United States. Of those deaths, approximately 74% were at the hands of right-wing extremists, about 24% of the victims were killed by domestic Islamic extremists, and the remainder were killed by left-wing extremists.
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https://www.adl.org/education/resources/reports/murder-and-extremism-in-the-united-states-in-2016
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
Normally I don't pay much attention to day to day movement because the overall (downward) trajectory is more important, but given the events of the past few days this is disappointing.
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Ehh I was curious if his numbers would totally tank or if it would reinvigorate some of his base that's become ... disillusioned with his lack of promises kept. I don't remember but one of the polls that showed his base numbers dwindling asked questions why it was dwindling and responses went anywhere from "he hasn't built the wall yet" to "He hasn't repealed Obamacare yet". If you're a nationalist he's basically been dealt one blow after another and is also not acting like the isolationist they all thought he would be. I thought this might serve as a reminder to some of his more vile base that this is all they're gonna get.
 
B

Blader

Member
Fenderputty said:
Ehh I was curious if his numbers would totally tank or if it would reinvigorate some of his base that's become ... disillusioned with his lack of promises kept. I don't remember but one of the polls that showed his base numbers dwindling asked questions why it was dwindling and responses went anywhere from "he hasn't built the wall yet" to "He hasn't repealed Obamacare yet". If you're a nationalist he's basically been dealt one blow after another and is also not acting like the isolationist they all thought he would be. I thought this might serve as a reminder to some of his more vile base that this is all they're gonna get.
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I don't think we should count on that base become disillusioned by the lack of 'promises kept.' Many if not all of these people will happily vote to re-elect him in three years and just blame the lack of kept promises on Congress, the media, his advisers, obstructionist Dems, Obama, the Deep State, globalists, etc. They share Trump's persecution complex, and believe like he does that it's never Trump's fault.
 
S

Slacker

Member
Link said:
The Alabama primary: Whoever wins, we lose.
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Aaron Strife said:
You guys do know it's the primary in Alabama, right?
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Yep - also known as the day when 10% of Alabama voters choose their next Senator. Same thing happened with Ted Cruz. A tiny percent of voters picked him in a runoff, then a rubber stamp victory in the general because he's a Republican and this is Texas. Whoever wins today will win it all in AL.

Edit: whoops I confused this with a runoff/primary. This is to run the remaining time in a seat. Get to the polls, AL.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Fenderputty said:
Ehh I was curious if his numbers would totally tank or if it would reinvigorate some of his base that's become ... disillusioned with his lack of promises kept. I don't remember but one of the polls that showed his base numbers dwindling asked questions why it was dwindling and responses went anywhere from "he hasn't built the wall yet" to "He hasn't repealed Obamacare yet". If you're a nationalist he's basically been dealt one blow after another and is also not acting like the isolationist they all thought he would be. I thought this might serve as a reminder to some of his more vile base that this is all they're gonna get.
Click to expand...

Certainly that was the calculus, that delivering a weak response that failed to call out the white supremacists was necessary not to offend the base and wouldn't push away anyone who wasn't already against him. I want implicitly siding with literal Nazi terrorists to be politically damaging because of what it says about the country.
 
B

Blader

Member
Slacker said:
Yep - also known as the day when 10% of Alabama voters choose their next Senator. Same thing happened with Ted Cruz. A tiny percent of voters picked him in a runoff, then a rubber stamp victory in the general because he's a Republican and this is Texas. Whoever wins today will win it all in AL.

Edit: whoops I confused this with a runoff/primary. This is to run the remaining time in a seat. Get to the polls, AL.
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The runoff is next month. Doesn't seem like anyone will be clearing 50 percent today.
 
Z

zelas

Member
whyamihere said:
Upshot did a piece on Obama->Trump voters. Some good stuff. Some are lost to time, others completely persuadable to come back.

https://nyti.ms/2uXq9CZ

Would pull quotes but I'm on mobile and don't love you all that much.
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But postelection surveys, pre-election surveys, voter file data and the actual results all support the main story: The voters who switched from President Obama to Mr. Trump were decisive.

Yet some still remain skeptical. A recent article in The Washington Post by Dana Milbank, “There’s No Such Thing as a Trump Democrat,” is the latest example. It argues, based on data from the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, that there wasn’t an unusual defection of Democratic voters in 2016. The study found that 9.2 percent of Obama voters flipped to support Mr. Trump — a hair lower than the estimates from other surveys.

But the study also supports the conclusion about the pivotal nature of the Obama-Trump vote.

...

MANY NOW CONSIDER THEMSELVES REPUBLICAN-LEANERS

A Pew Research Center panel study found that fully 18 percent of white working-class voters who leaned Democratic as late as December 2015 reported leaning Republican by December 2016. That timing is significant: It implies that these voters continued to tilt toward the Democrats all the way until the 2016 campaign.

...

Mr. Bost might seem like a fairly safe Republican for re-election, if you judge the partisanship of his district strictly by his party’s performance in the last presidential election. He certainly would be safe if Democrats wrote off Obama-Trump voters. But the willingness of these voters to support a Democrat for federal office against an incumbent Republican in a fairly decent year for Republicans suggests that at least these Obama-Trump voters remain in play, and Mr. Bost is more vulnerable than it might initially seem.

More generally, there is reason to think these voters are likelier to vote for a Democrat against a more traditional Republican who hasn’t developed a message to match Mr. Trump’s appeal to white working-class Democrats. These voters, for instance, tend to support abortion rights and same-sex marriage. They support a higher minimum wage.
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So basically we need to keep focus on a 50 state strategy because these voters actually do matter. Even though the far left wing of the democratic party is doing all they can to have everyone else give up on purple to red areas because "moderates."
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Blader said:
I don't think we should count on that base become disillusioned by the lack of 'promises kept.' Many if not all of these people will happily vote to re-elect him in three years and just blame the lack of kept promises on Congress, the media, his advisers, obstructionist Dems, Obama, the Deep State, globalists, etc. They share Trump's persecution complex, and believe like he does that it's never Trump's fault.
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Note: I don't think approval or lack thereof directly correlates with votes. These random polls will pick up on that type of noise though. His constant L's regarding his shitty policy they all wanted has to have some effect.

Box of Kittens said:
Certainly that was the calculus, that delivering a weak response that failed to call out the white supremacists was necessary not to offend the base and wouldn't push away anyone who wasn't already against him. I want implicitly siding with literal Nazi terrorists to be politically damaging because of what it says about the country.
Click to expand...

Have to watch over a longer period of time. The independent approval is already pretty abysmal. Curious if that means there's less ability for that Demo to flip. If so the "reinvigorated" numbers might have outpaced that temporarily. If my hopeful assumption is correct, it will be short lived as we will be back to more legislative L's and those that did flip won't easily come back.
 
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