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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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K

Kid Kamikaze10

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
No it isn't.

Like I don't give a fuck about the gerrymandering. Yes it's a problem. Yes it's a massive disadvantage

But no, it isn't the difference between making 64 seat gain possible and a 22 seat gain impossible.

Especially given the circumstances of both. Democrats committed the crime of trying to provide people with healthcare. Republicans are literally destroying themselves on a daily basis.

Figure out a way to win. I want EVERYONE gone if they can't.

If the current party officials cannot figure out a way to win a majority given the current shit show going on, regardless of the map difficulty, I have Zero faith they'll be able to figure out how to win in 2020 either. So they ALL need to get the fuck out.

Massive gains in 2018 or leave and never come back. I don't want to hear any excuses.
Click to expand...

Show your work, because gerrymandering and voter suppression are the only reasons Republicans have been able to get away with this shit for a very long time.

It is that bad. And it's gonna take a Supreme Court decision and a wave to beat it.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
No it isn't.

Like I don't give a fuck about the gerrymandering. Yes it's a problem. Yes it's a massive disadvantage

But no, it isn't the difference between making 64 seat gain possible and a 22 seat gain impossible.

Especially given the circumstances of both. Democrats committed the crime of trying to provide people with healthcare. Republicans are literally destroying themselves on a daily basis.

Figure out a way to win. I want EVERYONE gone if they can't.

If the current party officials cannot figure out a way to win a majority given the current shit show going on, regardless of the map difficulty, I have Zero faith they'll be able to figure out how to win in 2020 either. So they ALL need to get the fuck out.

Massive gains in 2018 or leave and never come back. I don't want to hear any excuses.
Click to expand...

This is the kind of speech a really incompetent manager gives his employees
 
F

FyreWulff

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
No it isn't.

Like I don't give a fuck about the gerrymandering. Yes it's a problem. Yes it's a massive disadvantage

But no, it isn't the difference between making 64 seat gain possible and a 22 seat gain impossible.
Click to expand...

I think you've really underestimated how much the gerrymandering has distorted the vote
 
J

jtb

Banned
I'm just terrified of the implications of two more years of Trump without any kind of federal restraint. It's only going to get worse before it gets better.

FyreWulff said:
I think you've really underestimated how much the gerrymandering has distorted the vote
Click to expand...

Hard to believe 2010 was "just" a R+7 wave.

(But 2008 was a D+11 wave, so not all is lost)
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Kid Kamikaze10 said:
Show your work, because gerrymandering and voter suppression are the only reasons Republicans have been able to get away with this shit for a very long time.

It is that bad. And it's gonna take a Supreme Court decision and a wave to beat it.
Click to expand...

Eh I'm going to say that gerrymandering is much more responsible for continued GOP control than voter ID laws.
 
W

Widdle Puppy

Banned
absolute travesty with that pardon.

just be patient. we know trump is guilty of something. mueller is working hard and is very creditable.

we can fight back very hard in 2018 but we have to find a strategy on how to go forward.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
No it isn't.

Like I don't give a fuck about the gerrymandering. Yes it's a problem. Yes it's a massive disadvantage

But no, it isn't the difference between making 64 seat gain possible and a 22 seat gain impossible.

Especially given the circumstances of both. Democrats committed the crime of trying to provide people with healthcare. Republicans are literally destroying themselves on a daily basis.

Figure out a way to win. I want EVERYONE gone if they can't.

If the current party officials cannot figure out a way to win a majority given the current shit show going on, regardless of the map difficulty, I have Zero faith they'll be able to figure out how to win in 2020 either. So they ALL need to get the fuck out.

Massive gains in 2018 or leave and never come back. I don't want to hear any excuses.
Click to expand...

The issue I have with alllll of this is twofold:

1) Partisan politics are stronger than they've ever been. Blaming the Dems for Republicans winning, when the Republicans and Fox News have done everything but call the Dems commies isn't useful.
2) Blaming the Dems for the ignorance and apathy of the electorate isn't useful. Should the Dems make everyone care more? Yes. But Trump would never have won if not for a good dose of apathy, ignorance and both-sides'ing, all of which reflect more on the electorate than the Dems. Just like Hillary told everyone how bad Trump was and lost, I can see the Dems telling everyone how bad Trump is and still not doing as well as they ought to.

And that's without the actual material problems thrown-up by gerrymandering.

Zolo said:
And if Kennedy retires, we have a partisan Supreme Court for Republicans.
Click to expand...

And if RBG dies we're screwed. But, like, neither of these two things are likely to happen soon, so let's not slippery-slope our way into what-ifs - it's entirely counter-productive.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Pixieking said:
The issue I have with alllll of this is twofold:

1) Partisan politics are stronger than they've ever been. Blaming the Dems for Republicans winning, when the Republicans and Fox News have done everything but call the Dems commies isn't useful.
2) Blaming the Dems for the ignorance and apathy of the electorate isn't useful. Should the Dems make everyone care more? Yes. But Trump would never have won if not for a good dose of apathy, ignorance and both-sides'ing, all of which reflect more on the electorate than the Dems. Just like Hillary told everyone how bad Trump was and lost, I can see the Dems telling everyone how bad Trump is and still not doing as well as they ought to.

And that's without the actual material problems thrown-up by gerrymandering.



And if RBG dies we're screwed. But, like, neither of these two things are likely to happen soon, so let's not slippery-slope our way into what-ifs - it's entirely counter-productive.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Kennedy isn't going to retire until the gerrymandering decision.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Would the current 2010 map have given Democrats the House in 2006 or 2008? I wonder what 1994 would have looked like under the current map?
 
J

jtb

Banned
I'd be shocked if Kennedy retired before the Kennedy Gerrymandering Beauty Pageant; I don't see that happening at all. He's definitely very interested in the case and the concept.

I'm a little more skeptical that he's going to do the "right" thing. Betting on any of the conservatives on the court to do the right thing is a fool's errand.

Are there no other maps we can challenge on racial grounds? At least we know we'd have Thomas in that coalition, who has consistently been anti-racial gerrymandering his entire time on the court.
 
J

jtb

Banned
also Shelby County will go down in history as one of the worst decisions in the history of the court and should be line one in Roberts' obituary, considering dismantling the Voting Rights Act has been Roberts' primary lifelong passion
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Kid Kamikaze10 said:
Show your work, because gerrymandering and voter suppression are the only reasons Republicans have been able to get away with this shit for a very long time.

It is that bad. And it's gonna take a Supreme Court decision and a wave to beat it.
Click to expand...
You can't gerrymander the senate or governor races. I'm very certain that if we, make a major haul in governors mansions, maintain the senate seats we have and gain Nevada + Arizona, the house will come with it. We gained 9 in 2016 in an election we lost every branch of government.

Here are some seats we supposedly are apparently targeting http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/04/what-democrats-need-to-do-to-take-congress-in-2018.html
There's thirty flippable seats here we are heavily targeting. These are reasonable and very achievable goals, not just in a wave election, but also in probably the biggest shit show of an administration of all time. They absolutely have to figure out a way to do this.

If we make a ton of gains in governors seats and maintain the senate + gain two I'll retract my feelings on the house but I don't believe I'm wrong in thinking we'll get there if we manage those goals.

However I'm not ready to believe if we do not do those things that it wasn't do to incompetence and that there are people in charge right now who have no idea what they are doing. If we cannot manage a massive win in 2018 I am not sure I want to trust the same people who were in charge of failing to make gains here with the responsibility of winning the White House in 2020.

pigeon said:
This is the kind of speech a really incompetent manager gives his employees
Click to expand...

So you're saying I have a chance for the GOP nomination then
 
T

Teggy

Member
Teggy said:
Pardoning Arpaio will only draw more attention on what he did. It will be cheered by Trump shot on 5th ave types but will turn off everyone else. Seems like a dumb move, so let him do it.
Click to expand...

My post from the other day. Looking like a good prediction right now. Most people were not aware of what a shitbag Arpaio is.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I do t get it. Like is only a certain kind of racist okay in this admin? if you hate black people or hispanics you can stay, if it's Jews (((globalists))) you get the boot. Couldn't they come to some mutual understanding over their shared disdain for muslims or something?
 
E

Earthstrike

Member
Don't normally participate in poligaf, but I just thought of something.

What if the number of racist democrats, is roughly equivalent to the number of black republicans?
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Ok maybe I should put it like this instead then.

I remember when our U.K. friends where on the eve of their last election, and reports where coming out about how Corbyn would refuse to resign even if they did not outright win the election.

Most were furious and telling him and others to fuck off and he was destroying labor etc. Or, you know, sounding a lot like me, a terrible incompetent business manager

However the results get in. Parliament gets hung and they probably win outright if Scotland didn't have unusual results.

But long story short the results were a boost of confidence to those who were unsure or outright demanding Corbyn resign. Even though he didn't "win", Because labour over performed, took a different strategy that helped them overcome a 20 point polling deficits and win in places that they've never ever won before

I need something similar. And given the fuckery that has gone on I don't think it is unreasonable to want that. My goal is the house but if they can't get that I need some sort of proof that not getting it was legitimately out of their hands. They have as much political ammo to move forward as any politician could possibly ever hope for as well.

The parties ground game ever since Howard Dean has been ousted has been such a disaster that I have no confidence in the people currently in charge.

So really, even if I am wrong about the house not being winnable in 2018 show me something elsewhere. Do something and make progress somehow that'll make me believe the party officials in charge should have voters confidence going into 2020.

I feel our Labour friends are confident with their leaders chances moving into the next election. After 2018, I want to see something that makes me feel the same way.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Kid Kamikaze10 said:
Show your work, because gerrymandering and voter suppression are the only reasons Republicans have been able to get away with this shit for a very long time.

It is that bad. And it's gonna take a Supreme Court decision and a wave to beat it.
Click to expand...

Even if the electoral college went to hillary, I'd still consider it a huge failure of the party, media, and voters that Hillary only won the popular vote by 2% against the worst candidate ever. What's happening now should be absolutely crushed. I'm worried it won't be and there might not be anything we can do about it.

It seems like the party's solution right now is to try to find a better balance between the "both sides" people that wont vote for a party that panders to corporations even if the other side are absolute monsters, and the uninformed and uncaring idiots that need to be bought with big money advertising that goes away if the party stops pandering to corporations.

And maybe there is no right balance to be found there. Just a back and forth seesaw that will never be stopped no matter how bad or good either side is, except through dirty tactics like gerrymandering.
 
S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Ok maybe I should put it like this instead then.

I remember when our U.K. friends where on the eve of their last election, and reports where coming out about how Corbyn would refuse to resign even if they did not outright win the election.

Most were furious and telling him and others to fuck off and he was destroying labor etc. Or, you know, sounding a lot like me, a terrible incompetent business manager

However the results get in. Parliament gets hung and they probably win outright if Scotland didn't have unusual results.

But long story short the results were a boost of confidence to those who were unsure or outright demanding Corbyn resign. Even though he didn't "win", Because labour over performed, took a different strategy that helped them overcome a 20 point polling deficits and win in places that they've never ever won before

I need something similar. And given the fuckery that has gone on I don't think it is unreasonable to want that. My goal is the house but if they can't get that I need some sort of proof that not getting it was legitimately out of their hands. They have as much political ammo to move forward as any politician could possibly ever hope for as well.

The parties ground game ever since Howard Dean has been ousted has been such a disaster that I have no confidence in the people currently in charge.

So really, even if I am wrong about the house not being winnable in 2018 show me something elsewhere. Do something and make progress somehow that'll make me believe the party officials in charge should have voters confidence going into 2020.

I feel our Labour friends are confident with their leaders chances moving into the next election. After 2018, I want to see something that makes me feel the same way.
Click to expand...

That shit is not happening here. Just look at people treat the Dems within their own party and how people see them. Nobody here trusts anybody to do anything right.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I can't imagine what a slim GOP majority house would look like, after all the less radical ones lose their seats to democrats. Paul Ryan would be forced to get democratic votes to get anything done, but the far right can react by just making sure Paul Ryan can't become Speaker without democratic votes.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Ok maybe I should put it like this instead then.

I remember when our U.K. friends where on the eve of their last election, and reports where coming out about how Corbyn would refuse to resign even if they did not outright win the election.

Most were furious and telling him and others to fuck off and he was destroying labor etc. Or, you know, sounding a lot like me, a terrible incompetent business manager

However the results get in. Parliament gets hung and they probably win outright if Scotland didn't have unusual results.

But long story short the results were a boost of confidence to those who were unsure or outright demanding Corbyn resign. Even though he didn't "win", Because labour over performed, took a different strategy that helped them overcome a 20 point polling deficits and win in places that they've never ever won before

I need something similar. And given the fuckery that has gone on I don't think it is unreasonable to want that. My goal is the house but if they can't get that I need some sort of proof that not getting it was legitimately out of their hands. They have as much political ammo to move forward as any politician could possibly ever hope for as well.

The parties ground game ever since Howard Dean has been ousted has been such a disaster that I have no confidence in the people currently in charge.

So really, even if I am wrong about the house not being winnable in 2018 show me something elsewhere. Do something and make progress somehow that'll make me believe the party officials in charge should have voters confidence going into 2020.

I feel our Labour friends are confident with their leaders chances moving into the next election. After 2018, I want to see something that makes me feel the same way.
Click to expand...
I think it's different because we don't really have hung parliaments or anything in the US.

If the GOP has 218 seats Ryan (or whoever the Speaker is at that point) can block anything he wants, the committees are all headed by Republicans so they can keep pursuing witch hunts against Hillary or other Democrats, etc. etc. Minority parties have almost zero power in the US Congress.

I mean yeah, they probably couldn't pass anything very substantial with slim margins, but who cares? They already can't and the GOP's only mission is to obstruct progress no matter what. If we can't do shit about income inequality, climate change, healthcare, student loan debt, and especially to hold the Republican administration accountable they'll consider that worth it.
 
The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
I'm pretty sure PoliGAF already covered this today, but it's interesting Trump is already back down to his all-time low of 34% in the Daily Gallup Tracker for two consecutive days.

We didn't see a cratering immediately during the Charlotsville fiasco but I wonder if things are finally starting to sink in for a lot of people.

Pardoning Arpaio might hardened 25% of the electorate toward Trump but I imagine he'll lose another 2-3 percentages points from independents.
 
S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
The Chosen One said:
I'm pretty sure PoliGAF already covered this today, but it's interesting Trump is already back down to his all-time low of 34% in the Daily Gallup Tracker for two consecutive days.

We didn't see a cratering immediately during the Charlotsville fiasco but I wonder if things are finally starting to sink in for a lot of people.

Pardoning Arpaio might hardened 25% of the electorate toward Trump but I imagine he'll lose another 2-3 percentages points from independents.
Click to expand...
We still have all of the shit today to think about now. I sure that people might change their minds on Trump.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
If the government shuts down, Trump could hit rock bottom before the year is up.

Rock bottom being mid-20s. That seems to be the floor for any president in the US.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
The Chosen One said:
I'm pretty sure PoliGAF already covered this today, but it's interesting Trump is already back down to his all-time low of 34% in the Daily Gallup Tracker for two consecutive days.

We didn't see a cratering immediately during the Charlotsville fiasco but I wonder if things are finally starting to sink in for a lot of people.

Pardoning Arpaio might hardened 25% of the electorate toward Trump but I imagine he'll lose another 2-3 percentages points from independents.
Click to expand...
In the average of polls Trump has been stuck at 37-39% for a little while. We shouldn't think of Trump as having a 34% rating, there's really been no material change since Charlottesville.
 
B

benicillin

Banned
Ah yes, looks like Trump spent another day appealing to his ever dwindling base of support while doing more things that turn the majority of the country off.

All while a natural disaster he almost certainly has no idea how to address is worsening in the south.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
If the government shuts down, Trump could hit rock bottom before the year is up.

Rock bottom being mid-20s. That seems to be the floor for any president in the US.
Click to expand...

Nah, he can go lower. All this shit is happening with a healthy economy. If he can hit the 20's with a healthy economy, imagine where he goes if he blows shit up via some trade war or the like.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Fenderputty said:
Nah, he can go lower. All this shit is happening with a healthy economy. If he can hit the 20's with a healthy economy, imagine where he goes if he blows shit up via some trade war or the like.
Click to expand...
I suppose.

I think Trump shutting down the government might spook corporations into a recession though. That tweet storm earlier suggested many of the money men running the country still believe Trump can pull off tax reform - if it becomes clear to them that Trump will destroy the economy for his own petty reasons they might as well just cut and run.

So we could get both!
 
M

Maengun1

Member
B-Dubs said:
So the GOP would maintain a minor House majority given waves of those sizes.

The kind of wave needed to retake the House at this point would be historic.
Click to expand...


This is obscene.

I guess we gotta wait and see how 2018 goes (I mean not just wait, be active) ...but if we're talking about a future where voters go Dem on a higher level than 2006 and 2008 and the GOP still retains complete control of the govt......fuck this shiiiiiit fuck this shiiiiiiit.

Today sucked. How are we still hitting new lows.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Earthstrike said:
Don't normally participate in poligaf, but I just thought of something.

What if the number of racist democrats, is roughly equivalent to the number of black republicans?
Click to expand...

The amount of explicitly (as opposed to implicitly) racist Democrats is roughly twice the number of black Republicans, by polling. They don't actually cancel out.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Maengun1 said:
This is obscene.

I guess we gotta wait and see how 2018 goes (I mean not just wait, be active) ...but if we're talking about a future where voters go Dem on a higher level than 2006 and 2008 and the GOP still retains complete control of the govt......fuck this shiiiiiit fuck this shiiiiiiit.

Today sucked. How are we still hitting new lows.
Click to expand...
It really sucks, but that's why I'm not sold on the idea that Dems can win back the House. A wave bigger than 06 and 08 is highly unlikely and even then the GOP may survive

Republicans just obstructed and robbed the country blind over the past decade so they could still thrive in this kind of environment. It's disgusting, it's infuriating, but they pulled it off. There's really nothing we can do.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
Waiting for the Dylan Roof pardon. I mean, there was a lot of violence coming... from all sides. I wonder if Trump owes any NJ wiseguys who are locked up.
 
H

Holmes

Member
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Doubling down on his hardcore 35% is about all he can do. Even if he gave a shit about major legislation being passed, he doesnt have the knowledge, intelligence, skills, or personality to help push the legislation.

All he can do is think of way to make liberals mad without needing congressional approval. Blaming Nazi victims for Nazi terrorist attacks, pardoning racists, taking civil rights away from LGBT military, etc is him scraping the bottom of the barrel for a "win".
 
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