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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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B

balladofwindfishes

Member
ArkhamFantasy said:
Do you guys feel good about the Supreme Courts gerrymandering decision?
Click to expand...
I do

Kennedy asked for evidence so he could rule against it, lawyers specifically tailored a lower court case to have that evidence, Kennedy is excited to hear the case. Seems pretty clear what he wants to do.

I don't think it'll be as far reaching as outlawing all gerrymandering, but it'll likely lessen the impact by a lot.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
BoogieWoogie said:
Listening to Pod Save America and they were discussing why Obama voters voted for Trump and it boiled down "he tells it like it is"

Was yelling at my radio on the drive home. We're such a stupid country.
Click to expand...
When people say that, it's because they assume everyone is as racist as them but won't say so because of political correctness. So it's really more about bigotry than honesty, or at least perception of the latter is driven by the former.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
BoogieWoogie said:
Listening to Pod Save America and they were discussing why Obama voters voted for Trump and it boiled down "he tells it like it is"

Was yelling at my radio on the drive home. We're such a stupid country.
Click to expand...

A lot of Obama voters were racist enough to not be bothered by Trump's rhetoric. Pair this with his grotesque "hope and change" message and the material conditions of the Rust Belt and this makes some sense.
 
I

Ithil

Member
Nobody "says it like it is" less than Trump. He is as inaccurate, dishonest and misleading as anyone I've ever seen.
I wouldn't trust him to tell me the time.
 
N

nintendoman58

Member
Man, never go into an OT thread where Trump does a shitty thing.

It's the exact same song and dance every time and it's only getting worse.

I'm surprised at how this thread manages to remain civilized and thoughtful when it comes to discussion and not devolve into a bunch of people angrily shouting at each other.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
balladofwindfishes said:
I do

Kennedy asked for evidence so he could rule against it, lawyers specifically tailored a lower court case to have that evidence, Kennedy is excited to hear the case. Seems pretty clear what he wants to do.

I don't think it'll be as far reaching as outlawing all gerrymandering, but it'll likely lessen the impact by a lot.
Click to expand...


I don't know how nine college educated adults could have even a basic conversation about gerrymandering without coming to the conclusion that it's an abhorrent abuse of democracy.


"But both sides do it!"

Fuck off you disingenuous ballsack.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Stinkles said:
I don't know how nine college educated adults could have even a basic conversation about gerrymandering without coming to the conclusion that it's an abhorrent abuse of democracy.
Click to expand...

Because it's not their job to determine right and wrong per se, it's their job to determine whether we're following our own rules.

The difference at the Constitutional Court level being that our many of our rules are intended to enable good things and prevent bad things, especially with broad rules like Equal Protection that basically allow you to declare anything to be "unfair" and thus unconstitutional.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Stinkles said:
I don't know how nine college educated adults could have even a basic conversation about gerrymandering without coming to the conclusion that it's an abhorrent abuse of democracy.


"But both sides do it!"

Fuck off you disingenuous ballsack.
Click to expand...
You think they'd be thrilled to strike down the Illinois and Maryland maps, you know, everyone's favorite go-to when defending the GOP's gerrymanders of Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Wisconsin...
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
nintendoman58 said:
Man, never go into an OT thread where Trump does a shitty thing.

It's the exact same song and dance every time and it's only getting worse.

I'm surprised at how this thread manages to remain civilized and thoughtful when it comes to discussion and not devolve into a bunch of people angrily shouting at each other.
Click to expand...

OT threads in general always have crazy people in it. There were people advocating steroid use in a thread yesterday about a bodybuilders death, who was famous for taking steroids.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Trump having the best, most luxurious trend in his Gallup approvals. At 35/60 today, up from 34/60. That makes three straight days at 60 disapproval and four of the last five.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
New poll (JMC, C-rated pollster by 538 so take with a grain of salt) has Dean Heller losing the GOP primary to Danny Tarkanian 39-31

Who would have thought claiming you oppose the GOP healthcare bill and chickening out at the last minute would have negative consequences
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Aaron Strife said:
New poll (JMC, C-rated pollster by 538 so take with a grain of salt) has Dean Heller losing the GOP primary to Danny Tarkanian 39-31

Who would have thought claiming you oppose the GOP healthcare bill and chickening out at the last minute would have negative consequences
Click to expand...

Is heller losing a primary good or bad for the democrat candidate?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ArkhamFantasy said:
Is heller losing a primary good or bad for the democrat candidate?
Click to expand...
Probably good - Heller's approval ratings are shit so the gamble is that Tarkanian's favorability ratings might be better on balance, but as the incumbent Heller will also have a massive fundraising advantage and institutional support whereas Tarkanian will not. With very few exceptions (if the incumbent is caught up in late-breaking personal scandal or something like that), an open seat contest is always more winnable for the out party.

Frankly if I were the Nevada GOP I would have jockeyed for Heller and Sandoval to switch places (Heller running for the now open gubernatorial contest, Sandoval running to take Heller's place), but fortunately for us the ship seems to have sailed on that one.

Same with Jeff Flake, whose approval ratings are also terrible but would still probably be more formidable than Kelli Ward.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I believe a Rosen v. Tarkanian contest for Nevada Senate would be the first time in US history that a pair of candidates faced off in a House contest, and then faced off in a Senate contest two years later. So that's neat.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Valhelm said:
A lot of Obama voters were racist enough to not be bothered by Trump's rhetoric. Pair this with his grotesque "hope and change" message and the material conditions of the Rust Belt and this makes some sense.
Click to expand...

I'm going to call this an improvement from "they weren't racist, just economic anxiety," but you've still got a ways to go to "they knowingly supported a white supremacist." Keep working on it. C-
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
I keep seeing a lot of folks on suicide watch because they see Trump "succeeding."

Some things to remember:

1. He's being investigated by Batman - on items that will likely have State and Federal implications.
2. He's alienated most republican Senators and the House is getting jittery too.
3. The General brought in to straighten him out has failed and will quit.
4. He self-harms almost daily and on days he doesn't step in shit, another external revelation dominates the news cycle.
5. The Republicans know for a FACT they can't win with him in 2020 and need a long term recovery strategy. The longer they leave it, the bigger the problem. They need something soon.



My personal belief is that he will be charged/indicted and impeached by a smallish majority of 100% dems and a few fall guys from the GOP - retiring, no shot at reelection etc, so that the party can say "We tried!" For the mid terms - and even rally some of the Deplorable base that way. I think that's McConnell's goal now. And I think it's going to speed up soon. My psychic barber said something big was about three weeks away, a week ago. So I'm watching the week of September 10th for a breakthrough (or maybe the Friday before that, I'll ask him for clarity if it's available).
 
B

Basileus777

Member
pigeon said:
I'm going to call this an improvement from "they weren't racist, just economic anxiety," but you've still got a ways to go to "they knowingly supported a white supremacist." Keep working on it. C-
Click to expand...

I can't tell how much you are playing a shtick when you post like this.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Stinkles said:
I keep seeing a lot of folks on suicide watch because they see Trump "succeeding."

Some things to remember:

1. He's being investigated by Batman - on items that will likely have State and Federal implications.
2. He's alienated most republican Senators and the House is getting jittery too.
3. The General brought in to straighten him out has failed and will quit.
4. He self-harms almost daily and on days he doesn't step in shit, another external revelation dominates the news cycle.
5. The Republicans know for a FACT they can't win with him in 2020 and need a long term recovery strategy. The longer they leave it, the bigger the problem. They need something soon.



My personal belief is that he will be charged/indicted and impeached by a smallish majority of 100% dems and a few fall guys from the GOP - retiring, no shot at reelection etc, so that the party can say "We tried!" For the mid terms - and even rally some of the Deplorable base that way. I think that's McConnell's goal now. And I think it's going to speed up soon. My psychic barber said something big was about three weeks away, a week ago. So I'm watching the week of September 10th for a breakthrough (or maybe the Friday before that, I'll ask him for clarity if it's available).
Click to expand...

Counterpoint: the GOP is Trump's party. Their non-Trump base does not exist. If they get into a civil war with Trump, Trump will win.

They don't need to worry about winning general elections or even winning majorities and actual power. They just need to keep winning their primaries.
 
T

TiredofWinning

Member
I'd say it's not too far fetched for people to still be racist and vote for Obama in 2008/12. "One of the good ones" and all of that.

I mean there's a reason why Obama chastised young black men with the "pull up your pants" narrative on the campaign trail in 2008, and barely talked about race at all. It really wasn't until Zimmerman acquittal that he began to speak more earnestly about it, and the diet racists began to be alienated.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Basileus777 said:
I can't tell how much you are playing a shtick when you post like this.
Click to expand...
He's not.

The "white innocence" narrative that takes hold among many on the left is a problem. They say these people are being "tricked" into supporting demagogues. That if only we had "better campaigns", "better messaging", "different policies", etc. that these people would surely come around. They're in denial about who these people are.

They're in denial about the fact that Dems are winning the electoral college only after the GOP fucks up royally. Once you realize that "he tells it like it is" = "he's parroting my views" and that many of these people start voting GOP as soon as the economy's out of a recession, you realize what they are.

It's not that they're "unbothered" by the rhetoric, it's that racism is a luxury good.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Stinkles said:
I keep seeing a lot of folks on suicide watch because they see Trump "succeeding."

Some things to remember:

1. He's being investigated by Batman - on items that will likely have State and Federal implications.
2. He's alienated most republican Senators and the House is getting jittery too.
3. The General brought in to straighten him out has failed and will quit.
4. He self-harms almost daily and on days he doesn't step in shit, another external revelation dominates the news cycle.
5. The Republicans know for a FACT they can't win with him in 2020 and need a long term recovery strategy. The longer they leave it, the bigger the problem. They need something soon.



My personal belief is that he will be charged/indicted and impeached by a smallish majority of 100% dems and a few fall guys from the GOP - retiring, no shot at reelection etc, so that the party can say "We tried!" For the mid terms - and even rally some of the Deplorable base that way. I think that's McConnell's goal now. And I think it's going to speed up soon. My psychic barber said something big was about three weeks away, a week ago. So I'm watching the week of September 10th for a breakthrough (or maybe the Friday before that, I'll ask him for clarity if it's available).
Click to expand...

His odds on winning aren't terrible in a vacuum. Of the "competitive" presidential re-election campaigns (so not counting Washington or Monroe who were basically unopposed), 10 were defeated out of 30 attempts. In that vacuum, he's got a 67% chance of re-election, and of the 10 who were defeated, several were due to poor economic conditions at the time (Van Buren, Hoover, Carter, HW Bush to an extent).

Although he basically has only the one path to 270, can't swap any of MI/WI/PA unless he did something odd like lose Wisconsin but win New Hampshire and Minnesota. He was about maxed out as far as possible Republican wins can go (since Colorado and Virginia are now on the left end of swing states and he'd only win them in a blowout election).

Maybe he could get New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, and Nevada, but only Minnesota's worth much out of those.

TiredofWinning said:
I'd say it's not too far fetched for people to still be racist and vote for Obama in 2008/12. "One of the good ones" and all of that.

I mean there's a reason why Obama chastised young black men with the "pull up your pants" narrative on the campaign trail in 2008, and barely talked about race at all. It really wasn't until Zimmerman acquittal that he began to speak more earnestly about it, and the diet racists began to be alienated.
Click to expand...

It was really as early as the Beer Summit (which itself was stupidly over-conciliatory in typical Obama fashion, that racist cop needed a smack in the mouth). You saw the agitation the instant he addressed issues of race more assertively than Bush ever did.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Ogodei said:
It was really as early as the Beer Summit (which itself was stupidly over-conciliatory in typical Obama fashion, that racist cop needed a smack in the mouth). You saw the agitation the instant he addressed issues of race more assertively than Bush ever did.
Click to expand...
Yup, he deliberately didn't go after them directly on his own during his campaigns.
 
T

TiredofWinning

Member
JUNE 16, 2008: Obama Sharply Assails Absent Black Fathers

CHICAGO — Addressing a packed congregation at one of the city's largest black churches, Senator Barack Obama on Sunday invoked his own absent father to deliver a sharp message to African-American men, saying, ”We need fathers to realize that responsibility does not end at conception."

”Too many fathers are M.I.A, too many fathers are AWOL, missing from too many lives and too many homes," Mr. Obama said, to a chorus of approving murmurs from the audience. ”They have abandoned their responsibilities, acting like boys instead of men. And the foundations of our families are weaker because of it."

The speech was striking for its setting, and in how Mr. Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, directly addressed one of the most sensitive topics in the African-American community: whether absent fathers bore responsibility for some of the intractable problems afflicting black Americans. Mr. Obama noted that ”more than half of all black children live in single-parent households," a number that he said had doubled since his own childhood.

Accompanied by his wife, Michelle, and his daughters, Malia and Sasha, who sat in the front pew, Mr. Obama laid out his case in stark terms that would be difficult for a white candidate to make, telling the mostly black audience not to ”just sit in the house watching SportsCenter," and to stop praising themselves for mediocre accomplishments.

”Don't get carried away with that eighth-grade graduation," he said, bringing many members of the congregation to their feet, applauding. ”You're supposed to graduate from eighth grade."

His themes have been also been sounded by the comedian Bill Cosby, who has stirred debate among black Americans by bluntly speaking about an epidemic of fatherless African-American families while suggesting that some blacks use racism as a crutch to explain lack of economic progress.

Mr. Obama did not take his Father's Day message to Trinity United Church of Christ, the church from which he resigned in May after a series of disputes over controversial remarks by the church's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Instead, he chose the 20,000-member Apostolic Church of God, a vast brick structure on the South Side near Lake Michigan. The church's pastor, Byron Brazier, is an Obama supporter.

On the campaign trail, Mr. Obama has frequently returned to the topic of parenting and personal responsibility, particularly for low-income African American families. Speaking in Texas in February, Mr. Obama told the mostly black audience to take responsibility for the education and nutrition of their children, and lectured them for feeding their children ”cold Popeyes" for breakfast.

”I know how hard it is to get kids to eat properly," Mr. Obama said. ”But I also know that folks are letting our children drink eight sodas a day, which some parents do, or, you know, eat a bag of potato chips for lunch. Buy a little desk or put that child at the kitchen table. Watch them do their homework."

On Friday, Mr. Obama announced that he would be a co-sponsor of a bill with Senator Evan Bayh, Democrat of Indiana, that his campaign said would address the ”national epidemic of absentee fathers." If passed, the legislation would increase the enforcement of child support payments and strengthen domestic violence prevention services.

Mr. Obama cited the need for stronger law enforcement services and resources for education, more job opportunities and other resources for communities.
Click to expand...

You can't not see what he was obviously trying to do here. Every word is absolutely vulgar and just reinforces white stereotypes of black males.
 
B

Brawly Likes to Brawl

Member
Ogodei said:
It was really as early as the Beer Summit (which itself was stupidly over-conciliatory in typical Obama fashion, that racist cop needed a smack in the mouth). You saw the agitation the instant he addressed issues of race more assertively than Bush ever did.
Click to expand...

A lot of white people were really tilted when he put himself in the shoes of the victim. That was also the time that a lot of anti-"SJW" movements started gaining ground.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
TiredofWinning said:
JUNE 16, 2008: Obama Sharply Assails Absent Black Fathers



You can't not see what he was obviously trying to do here. Every word is absolutely vulgar and just reinforces white stereotypes of black males.
Click to expand...

This was also key to Clinton's victory, tbh. One of his key policies as governor of Arkansas was about going after "the deadbeat dad" and creating the cruel systems of child support that we see today (where they throw you in jail for non-payment which basically destroys your ability to ever make your alimony payments).
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Ogodei said:
Because it's not their job to determine right and wrong per se, it's their job to determine whether we're following our own rules.

The difference at the Constitutional Court level being that our many of our rules are intended to enable good things and prevent bad things, especially with broad rules like Equal Protection that basically allow you to declare anything to be "unfair" and thus unconstitutional.
Click to expand...


But we have big clearly written rules defending people's right to vote unhindered by racial, religious, political or ethnic tests. Those are the ones that should apply.
 
N

NoName999

Member
Stinkles said:
I don't know how nine college educated adults could have even a basic conversation about gerrymandering without coming to the conclusion that it's an abhorrent abuse of democracy.


"But both sides do it!"

Fuck off you disingenuous ballsack.
Click to expand...

One would think "both sides doing it" would actually be enough of a reason to get rid gerrymandering. What the fuck lol
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Basileus777 said:
I can't tell how much you are playing a shtick when you post like this.
Click to expand...

Uh, yeah. The thing about banning all cars is a schtick*.

The thing about how Trump is a white supremacist and it was obvious last year and lots and lots of people are heavily in denial about what that means about the people who voted for him knowing that he was a white supremacist? What would make you think that's a schtick?


* What I actually want is to ban driving cars because most people are not capable of doing it safely.
 
T

TiredofWinning

Member
Ogodei said:
This was also key to Clinton's victory, tbh. One of his key policies as governor of Arkansas was about going after "the deadbeat dad" and creating the cruel systems of child support that we see today (where they throw you in jail for non-payment which basically destroys your ability to ever make your alimony payments).
Click to expand...

Yea Clinton's record on civil rights both as governor and president is absolutely horrific, but what I was trying to convey was that Obama used racist rhetoric to appeal to diet racists in 2008, even the beer summit was him realizing he went too far with acknowledging his race.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
pigeon said:
Uh, yeah. The thing about banning all cars is a schtick*.

The thing about how Trump is a white supremacist and it was obvious last year and lots and lots of people are heavily in denial about what that means about the people who voted for him knowing that he was a white supremacist? What would make you think that's a schtick?


* What I actually want is to ban driving cars because most people are not capable of doing it safely.
Click to expand...
I worded that poorly, I wasn't objecting to the underlying point, just wondering if you were playing it up a bit when with that post because you were basically splitting hairs about wording. But maybe there's some history there I'm not aware of.

kirblar said:
He's not.

The "white innocence" narrative that takes hold among many on the left is a problem. They say these people are being "tricked" into supporting demagogues. That if only we had "better campaigns", "better messaging", "different policies", etc. that these people would surely come around. They're in denial about who these people are.

They're in denial about the fact that Dems are winning the electoral college only after the GOP fucks up royally. Once you realize that "he tells it like it is" = "he's parroting my views" and that many of these people start voting GOP as soon as the economy's out of a recession, you realize what they are.

It's not that they're "unbothered" by the rhetoric, it's that racism is a luxury good.
Click to expand...

I agree with most of this. But some of the racist vote needs to be won over, the question is how to do it without actually caving into white supremacy.
 
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