PoliGAF Debate #3 Thread of Hey Joe, where you goin' with that plunger in your hand

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Karma Kramer said:
I have a feeling the polls are going to tighten very soon... (this SNL thing is going to be good for Palin, and slowly people are going to start to pity her and McCain... just like what happened in New Hampshire with Obama/Clinton).

Though I still think Obama has this election locked up unless something major happens that swings it around.
Click to expand...

... (posted yesterday)

... everyone chill
 
Nameless said:
Money
* It is unusual but at this stage of the race Kerry has more money than Bush to spend.
* Kerry's fundraising efforts were greatly assisted by a motivated base and by good use of the internet, learning from Howard Dean.

The Running
* The race is Kerry's to lose, barring unforeseen events. If he loses, it is only his fault..
Click to expand...

Ooof.
 
CharlieDigital said:
Wait, why are you assuming that the early voting is going to be overwhelmingly for Obama? Do we have numbers to back this?
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Yes! Survey USA has down polls in most states with early voting so far and Obama is winning in all of them. Even Georgia.
 
About people worrying about the polls dipping below the 10 percent, just remember the royal ass kicking Reagan laid in 1980 was only 8 points over Carter. Based on that, a five percent win is a landslide and about the best Obama can possibly do.
 
Update on North Carolina voter registrations

It went vertical this week.

Code: 
Dem	 46,358 
Ind.	 23,552 
GOP	 13,495 
Lib	 734 
	
Total	 84,139

Weekly trend:

Code: 
9/6/2008	 10,077 
9/13/2008	 16,154 
9/20/2008	 20,880 
9/27/2008	 27,237 
10/4/2008	 31,114 
10/10/2008 45,649 
10/17/2008 84,139

Here's the party ID of new registrations this year, followed by the weekly trend of all registrations:

NC-10-17.jpg


Obama has nearly closed the margin that Bush won the state by in new Democrat registrations alone, before factoring in the unaffiliated vote and increased youth/black turnout.
The Lamonster said:
So it looks like today is a dark day for PoliGAF. Starting to feel less confident?
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I a little unnerved by the swing in national trackers, but I said before that it will be important to see how they look after they abosorb days after the debate. Let's see how they look on Monday. And of course, watch next week for state shifts, as they lag national polling.

The silver lining to any tightening is all the early voting going on right now, when Obama had his biggest lead ever.
 
SpeedingUptoStop said:
tighter race means more people coming out, I don't mind. If Bams just wins Kerry+CO+NC or VA, it's over anyways.
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The most solid route remains Kerry + IA + NM + CO

I'm certain that Iowa and New Mexico are in the bag, along with all the Kerry states, and by bigger margins that Kerry, erm, carried them. After that, it's one state, and CO looks the most likely. Anything else is gravy.
 
GhaleonEB said:
The most solid route remains Kerry + IA + NM + CO

I'm certain that Iowa and New Mexico are in the bag, along with all the Kerry states, and by bigger margins that Kerry, erm, carried them. After that, it's one state, and CO looks the most likely. Anything else is gravy.
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Virginia has been a lot less close than Colorado recently. Colorado seems to be about a 4-5 point race and Virginia more like 7-8.
 
ryutaro's mama said:
Ooof.
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IIRC, Zogby was the favorite pollster of Dems in 04 - because he was pretty much the only one saying things like that. Don't use that as an excuse to get worried about the accuracy of polls in general.
 
tighter race? awesome. obama's ground game will be even tougher now.

this is the 2008 olympics basketball final. obama/kobe will pull through in the end--never decline a challenge!

kobequiet.jpg
 
giga said:
tighter race? awesome. obama's ground game will be even tougher now.

this is the 2008 olympics basketball final. obama/kobe will pull through in the end--never decline a challenge!

kobequiet.jpg
Click to expand...

Konex just orgasmically exploded reading this post.
 
Tyrone Slothrop said:
are we panicking again? :lol
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No. But maybe PoliGAf has a different definition of panic than I do. Is this a statement of panic, or fact?

"The daily tracking polls are showing Obama's lead dropping."

If that is panic, they I suppose I am. Though I'm certain Obama is going to win by a very large margin. We could talk about why that is the case - just as there was discussion of why they were going up - but that apparantly incites panic.

Note to self: only mention polls when they are going up.

:p
 
As the polls tighten up it's still best to remember that McCain has to win 7 battleground states where Obama just has to win one of them.

Obama also has the last ace up his sleeve with that 30 minute ad the week before the election. I kinda wish the ad was going to be run even close to the election, but I assume the Obama camp had some reason not to have it run on the night of the 3rd.
 
syllogism said:
I begged our speech writers, 'Don’t make me say Joe the Plumber, please, in any speeches.' - Palin

Also she apparently asks campaign staffers for a permission to "turn on the news"
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from the comments:
People do not waste your time reading,
watching or believing any of the so called news from ABC,NBC,CBS,or CNN,we all know that are D.L.S.C. party members and they are for Obama. They will say and do anything to get Obama elected. They will attack anyone who dares ask a question of their Great Leader B.H.O. Leave these sites to
D.L.S.C. Party Members.
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what the farking hell is that supposed to mean?
 
Cheebs said:
Virginia has been a lot less close than Colorado recently. Colorado seems to be about a 4-5 point race and Virginia more like 7-8.
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True, I hadn't actually noticed the swing up in Virginia. The pollster.com margins are:

Colorado: 6.2%
Virginia: 6.4%

I'll be very happy with either one. I'm also convinced Obama is going to win North Carolina. Early voting started there yesterday.
 
Cheebs said:
Virginia has been a lot less close than Colorado recently. Colorado seems to be about a 4-5 point race and Virginia more like 7-8.
Click to expand...
It's bad if anyone gets complacent, but I don't think we'll have anything to worry about.

Historically, it takes a fuck up of huge level to lose under these conditions. And Obama is anything but.

If anything I'd say it will be a spread of 15 points.
 
GhaleonEB said:
No. But maybe PoliGAf has a different definition of panic than I do. Is this a statement of panic, or fact?

"The daily tracking polls are showing Obama's lead dropping."

If that is panic, they I suppose I am. Though I'm certain Obama is going to win by a very large margin. We could talk about why that is the case - just as there was discussion of why they were going up - but that apparantly incites panic.

Note to self: only mention polls when they are going up.

:p
Click to expand...
Well, the problem with discussing polls extends from the fact that using them to launch into good, ol' fashioned qulitative analysis concerning what's happening in the election right now has almost always taken a backseat to an overabundance of knee-jerk reactions.

Poll goes up a measly point for Obama? Booyah! Hopium for all. Poll goes down one point? Oh God! What's happening!? How can people be so stupid and fall for McCain's nonsense!?

So, whether you fall into that group or not, any discussion concerning what is REALLY happening in the polls is hard to achieve. At the end of the day, I kind of see them in the same light as looking at the DOW numbers. They mean something, but they aren't end-all-be-all numbers that are definitive indicators of anything. In the short-term, they're just there to try and spot trends in an imperfect fashion, but too many look at them as though they're an official scoreboard.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Update on North Carolina voter registrations

It went vertical this week.

Code: 
Dem	 46,358 
Ind.	 23,552 
GOP	 13,495 
Lib	 734 
	
Total	 84,139

Weekly trend:

Code: 
9/6/2008	 10,077 
9/13/2008	 16,154 
9/20/2008	 20,880 
9/27/2008	 27,237 
10/4/2008	 31,114 
10/10/2008 45,649 
10/17/2008 84,139

Here's the party ID of new registrations this year, followed by the weekly trend of all registrations:

NC-10-17.jpg


Obama has nearly closed the margin that Bush won the state by in new Democrat registrations alone, before factoring in the unaffiliated vote and increased youth/black turnout.

I a little unnerved by the swing in national trackers, but I said before that it will be important to see how they look after they abosorb days after the debate. Let's see how they look on Monday. And of course, watch next week for state shifts, as they lag national polling.

The silver lining to any tightening is all the early voting going on right now, when Obama had his biggest lead ever.
Click to expand...

Why doesn't GAF piss on themselves when great news like this comes out from NC? This is GOOD NEWS GAF!
 
I hope the polls keep tightening, it works in Obama's favor. I was starting to fear that people would be reluctant to vote if they were 'sure' that Obama was going to come out with the win.
 
speculawyer said:
ap_ypoll_10162008.jpg
Click to expand...


These are all pro-obama numbers. Those numbers show that Obama's ground game will show up, where as the REPs might not. Why show up when you aren't excited anymore?
 
3rdman said:
Same goes for "Joe the Plumber"...in just 24 hours, we find out he doesn't have a license, owes back taxes, he's a registered Republican, and was registered with the Natural Law Party....not that there is anything particularly wrong with any of these things but it just adds to the narrative of a fringe electorate.
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Honestly the best part of this Plumber Saga is how he turned out to feed directly into the bizarre Class Warfare nonsense McCain has been trying to push. Nobody but the most crazed idealogue cares that someone making six times what they do is going to pay $300 more under Obama's tax plan. Fucking nobody. That he showed up with washed out GOP talking points and subconcious racism is just gravy.

Also fuck this chicken little noise. I got the first decent night's sleep I've had in ages after Wednesday. I'm not giving that up again.
 
hokahey said:
That's an ONLINE POLL
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Kind of... certainly isn't a traditional poll

The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanelSM, a probability-based Panel designed to be
representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of
telephone numbers. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone to participate in the webenabled
KnowledgePanelSM. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access,
Knowledge Networks provides at no cost an Internet appliance and Internet service connection. People who
already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists
then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails three to four times
a month inviting them to participate in research. More technical information is available at
Click to expand...
 
suaveric said:
As the polls tighten up it's still best to remember that McCain has to win 7 battleground states where Obama just has to win one of them.

Obama also has the last ace up his sleeve with that 30 minute ad the week before the election. I kinda wish the ad was going to be run even close to the election, but I assume the Obama camp had some reason not to have it run on the night of the 3rd.
Click to expand...


He probably wants the media and people in general to talk about it and absorb the informaiton that will be displayed on Oct 29th.
 
If Obama doesn't win NC I"m going to be very disappointed, the Dems have outnumbered the republicans big time this year. Early voting SHOULD help Obama out.
 
Qwerty710710 said:
If Obama doesn't win NC I"m going to be very disappointed, the Dems have outnumbered the republicans big time this year. Early voting SHOULD help Obama out.
Click to expand...
I'm simply not worried anymore about this poll business. Unless Mccain gets a 15 point swing in co, nc, va, mo, & ia, this goose is already cooked.
 
I don't really think the polls are tightening much at all. Are people getting nervous about Drudge's goofy poll selection? Or a one-day Kos sample with a 5-point MOE?
 
Qwerty710710 said:
If Obama doesn't win NC I"m going to be very disappointed, the Dems have outnumbered the republicans big time this year. Early voting SHOULD help Obama out.
Click to expand...
How does the early voting thing work? I remember a day or two ago we got hard numbers on Obama vs McCain from early voting on a .gov website... Were those straight up you-better-fucking-count-them numbers or some sort of state sponsered exit polling? Does that website update daily? Haven't seen it recently.
 
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