PoliGAF Debate #3 Thread of Hey Joe, where you goin' with that plunger in your hand

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http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/17/to_avoid_being_depressed_palin.html said:
Palin also made a point of mentioning that she loved to visit the "pro-America" areas of the country, of which North Carolina is one. No word on which states she views as unpatriotic.
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What a lovely person.
 
mckmas8808 said:
These are all pro-obama numbers. Those numbers show that Obama's ground game will show up, where as the REPs might not. Why show up when you aren't excited anymore?
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I'd love to see a study looking at past enthusiasm gaps and how they relate to turnout. IIRC, the past two elections Dems and Republicans were about tied, and both were very close. Obama has maintained a big enthusiasm lead among his supporters, the only question is how strongly that will translate to votes.

And for national polls, we need to see where the tightening is coming from. Chuck Todd's main take-away from the debate was that Obama was speaking to the middle and Dem base, while McCain was speaking to his hard line base. It's quite possible the GOP base is further consolidating, which won't impact many of the states Obama is pulling ahead in.
gkrykewy said:
I don't really think the polls are tightening much at all. Are people getting nervous about Drudge's goofy poll selection? Or a one-day Kos sample with a 5-point MOE?
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http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

Set sensitivity to high and you can see the movement.
 
worldrunover said:
I don't even get that rape joke (in the family values bit). I don't think it's offensive, only because I don't really get it.
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Holy shit. My mouth was hanging open just as much as those little clay figures. It's a fucking "Women can enjoy rape" joke.
 
AniHawk said:
She is quite the maverick.
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I know! It's like, she's on point, sticking to her message of Obama supporting terrorists, and it's working and what not. So, you think she's going to be boring and predictable and just stick to that. Then, when you least expect it, BAM!!! She's all coming out of left field and shit with this brand spanking new socialism attack! My heart can't handle this level of spontanaity and quick, original thinking.
 
syllogism said:
Yeah you can totally see the lead shrinking by half
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we're all going to die
SCReuter said:
If I just heard right from MSNBC, the U.S. Supreme Court sides with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in data base fiasco.

Fox "News" Channel is going to be throwing a fit.
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Epic win.
 
If I just heard MSNBC right, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in data base fiasco.

Fox "News" Channel is going to be throwing a fit.
 
Look. Obama has this thing. If he can get virginia--he doesn't even need NC, CO, or any other battlegrounds.

Picture+1.png
 
SCReuter said:
If I just heard MSNBC right, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in data base fiasco.

Fox "News" Channel is going to be throwing a fit.
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Any links yet? I'm not seeing anything on cnn.com or msnbc.com.
 
SCReuter said:
If I just heard MSNBC right, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in data base fiasco.

Fox "News" Channel is going to be throwing a fit.
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Thank god. I was ready to concede my state because of this idiocy.
 
CharlieDigital said:
Any links yet? I'm not seeing anything on cnn.com or msnbc.com.
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Haven't checked any site, but they're talking about it now on MSNBC -- calling it a big victory for the state, which it obviously is.
 
SCReuter said:
Heck, he doesn't even need New Mexico in that scenario:
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He can steal a Nebraska district and not even worry about New Hamsphire!

He can also get Nevada, NM, VA, and Colorado and lose PA.

Obama has so many ways to win this. McCain pretty much has to steal it.
 
giga said:
Look. Obama has this thing. If he can get virginia--he doesn't even need NC, CO, or any other battlegrounds.

Picture+1.png
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The Kerry + IA + NM thing is still gonna hold, but he'll at least pick up one of NV, WV, CO, VA, IN, OH, FL, MO, ND, MT, GA, AR, or NC.

Man, remember when the battleground states included blue ones, and that most of the aforementioned weren't even on the table? I'm wondering if the hardening of the bases are what's going on for McCain in the polls. The dailykos one is a little interesting, because the internals show a slight dropoff from men, but the west and the midwest are still ten point+ leads for Obama (though there's been slight dropoff in the south). I wonder if a lot of this is coming from states that will go Republican anyway.
 
RapeApe said:
lol @ Ohio

She used Joe the Plumber as a cover.
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Um, we just had a republican president partially nationalize our banks. MCCAIN HIMSELF suggested $300 billion of taxpayer money to buy bad mortgages. Why is Palin acting like she's Ron Paul now?

Also, wouldn't the majority of Americans prefer "spreading the wealth" just a bit? It doesn't seem like a winning argument outside of conservative circles
oh right Palin's not allowed to go outside, forgot
 
worldrunover said:
Also, wouldn't the majority of Americans prefer "spreading the wealth" just a bit? It doesn't seem like a winning argument outside of conservative circles
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Well, it depends on how you define "spreading the wealth." People with pure conservative values tend to oppose it on grounds of fairness. However, the attack works for most because they become convinced by GOP attacks that "spreading the wealth" is not about taxing the richest of the rich a high amount, knowing that they can afford to do so with ease, to alleviate the burden on the lower and middle class citizens. They become convinced that they, the guy who's making $50K a year and paying some taxes, are seeing their money going to underserving people in the ghettos who have zero motivation to actually try and make an honest living. In that sense, they see Richie Rich as a mutual victim in these socialist schemes, and don't see themselves as benefactors.
 
worldrunover said:
Also, wouldn't the majority of Americans prefer "spreading the wealth" just a bit? It doesn't seem like a winning argument outside of conservative circles
oh right Palin's not allowed to go outside, forgot
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Joe The Plumber went on national television and balked at the idea of rich people paying more taxes than himself. It's not so much that what this guy believes is dumb, it's that McCain propped him up as a representitive of the GOP.
 
Steve Youngblood said:
In that sense, they see Richie Rich as a mutual victim in these socialist schemes, and don't see themselves as benefactors.
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I can't even understand this mindset.

My wife and I make pretty good money, but if it meant that paying $1000 more per year in taxes would result in a family making $50,000 that's struggling to get by getting health care, I'd do it without question.
 
quadriplegicjon said:
please. no one knows what his mother might have done. this is completely bullshit conjecture
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Furthermore, ANYONE could have been aborted after Roe v. Wade.

But, surprise, all of us that are living did not get aborted. Amazing!
 
CharlieDigital said:
I can't even understand this mindset.

My wife and I make pretty good money, but if it meant that paying $1000 more per year in taxes would result in a family making $50,000 that's struggling to get by getting health care, I'd do it without question.
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That's because you're a socialist and hate America and capitalism.
 
Nate on the suspicious betting taking place at InTrade:

...It's pretty obvious that this is not some sort of random walk. Rather, every so often, some individual trader or some small group of traders are shorting all the Obama contacts in bulk and resetting the entire market. The markets then organically climb back upward until the rogue trader strikes again six or eight hours later. The volumes on these contracts have been very high for the past week as a result.

Most likely, this is just some idiot degenerate gambler who is trying to have some fun. Between the Obama and McCain contracts, there appears to be about $400,000 in contracts changing hands every day, which is a lot by Main Street standards, but minuscule by either Vegas or Wall Street Standards.
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A few weeks later...

Trader drove up price of McCain stock

An internal investigation by the popular online market Intrade has revealed that an investor has been attempting to artificially boost the prediction that Sen. John McCain will become president.

Over the past several weeks, the investor has pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars into Intrade’s predictive market for the presidential election, the company said, resulting in great financial losses through a strategy that belies any financial motive.

“The trading that caused the unusual price movements and discrepancies was principally due to a single ‘institutional’ member on Intrade,” said the company’s chief executive, John Delaney, in a statement released Thursday. “We have been in contact with the firm on a number of occasions. I have spoken to those involved personally.”

After an extensive investigation into the suspicious trading patterns, Intrade found no wrongdoing of violation of its exchange rules, the company said.

Citing privacy policies, Delaney would not elaborate on who the investor was or whether or not that investor was affiliated in any way with the McCain campaign.

According to Delaney, this investor, who boosted the McCain prediction significantly over the market value and above the levels of competing predictive-market Web sites, was using the Intrade market to protect other positions and hedge other investments.
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:lol
 
Steve Youngblood said:
Well, it depends on how you define "spreading the wealth." People with pure conservative values tend to oppose it on grounds of fairness. However, the attack works for most because they become convinced by GOP attacks that "spreading the wealth" is not about taxing the richest of the rich a high amount, knowing that they can afford to do so with ease, to alleviate the burden on the lower and middle class citizens. They become convinced that they, the guy who's making $50K a year and paying some taxes, are seeing their money going to underserving people in the ghettos who have zero motivation to actually try and make an honest living. In that sense, they see Richie Rich as a mutual victim in these socialist schemes, and don't see themselves as benefactors.
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Wow, Youngblood spouting truth. I've seen so many people I know who make sub $75k balk at the idea of the lowest class not paying as much as they do. Never mind that they are the ones most hit by sales tax, nevermind that Obama is on national television saying that lowering the taxes of 95% of America can create a surplus of a trillion dollars if you regress the tax cuts of the last twenty years for the other 5%, nevermind that they them-fucking-selves would benefit from such a tax plan, it's just really goddamn important that people making less than $30k a year contribute their fair share. Because otherwise they are draining the economy and buying houses they can't afford.
 
CharlieDigital said:
I can't even understand this mindset.

My wife and I make pretty good money, but if it meant that paying $1000 more per year in taxes would result in a family making $50,000 that's struggling to get by getting health care, I'd do it without question.
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People see the world through their own eyes. Hey, I went out and got a decent job with healthcare. Why can't these other people?
 
GhaleonEB said:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

Set sensitivity to high and you can see the movement.
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Not really - I just see the continuation of a staircase widening pattern. This has never been linear, which is why the smoothing is less sensitive by default.

*shrugs*

And if you set the date range to 10/1 - 11/15, the gap is almost flat.

Further, weren't you the guy who bailed on the first debate after a half hour, announcing that Obama was getting killed? :lol :lol

Prone to disproportionate judgments from small data trends, eh?
 
fuckfuckfuck how nazi-ish are American election authorities? I tore off the sticker on my offical envelope by mistake so I had to write out all my registration numbers by hand and stick it on to the envelope, but there was also a barcode on there that's gone now. I want them to count my vote :'(
 
According to Delaney, this investor, who boosted the McCain prediction significantly over the market value and above the levels of competing predictive-market Web sites, was using the Intrade market to protect other positions and hedge other investments
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Heh.
 
mckmas8808 said:
Supreme Court on our side in OHIO BITCHES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:D
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Not really. I would have preferred to see the epic blowback from the GOP officially endorsing voter supression. Ohio sucks, it could have been used as an example for claims from other states.
 
The Lamonster said:
Obama's going to lose Ohio, but he doesn't really need it, so don't worry about it.
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Why would you say that? Most of the polls are going for Obama right now.
 
lopaz said:
fuckfuckfuck how nazi-ish are American election authorities? I tore off the sticker on my offical envelope by mistake so I had to write out all my registration numbers by hand and stick it on to the envelope, but there was also a barcode on there that's gone now. I want them to count my vote :'(
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Sorry guys, quoting myself for new page
 
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