Code:
State Difference in change of Other Period Bush-Kerry(04)
registered voters (D-R)
AK 2,628-2836 = [b]-208[/b] 6,825 March-Sep [b]79,864[/b]
AZ 68,480-32,141 = [b]36,339[/b] 4,359 January-Sep [b]210,770[/b]
CA 417,793-46,497 = [b]371,296[/b] 117,313 January-May [b]-1,235,659[/b]
CO 66,516-13,352 = [b]53,164[/b] 23,437 January-July [b]99,523[/b]
DE 4,428-676 = 3,752 2,200 July-Sep [b]-28,492[/b]
FL 209,442-77,196 = [b]132,226[/b] 26,100 January-June [b]-380,978[/b]
IA 69,301-7,515 = [b]61,786[/b] -62,922 January-August [b]10,059[/b]
KS 13,159-1,553 = [b]11,606[/b] -1,704 January-March [b]301,463[/b]
MD 12,338-4,260 = [b]8,078[/b] 5,544 January-July [b]-309,790[/b]
NV 51,547-1,230 = [b]50,317[/b] 7,550 January-August [b]21,500[/b]
NH 1,118-(-1,285) = [b]2,403[/b] 269 June-August [b]-9,274[/b]
NY 102,559-1,526 = [b]101,033[/b] -164 November-March [b]-1,351,713[/b]
NC 171,955-20,363 = [b]151,592[/b] 123,605 January-August [b]435,317[/b]
OR 122,518-(-13,349) = [b]135,867[/b] -? January-July [b] -76,332[/b]
PA 98,137-289 = [b]97,848[/b] 15,907 April-August [b]-144,248[/b]
WY 3,409-1,390 = [b]2,019 [/b] 5,892 January-August [b]-96,853[/b]So as it looks now, the only states that got a huge shift the other way are Iowa and Nevada. This would be enough for Barack to win in November, assuming all democrats vote democrat and the independent guys do too. CO's numbers aren't quite there yet, but the last check on those were from 2-3 months ago, so it's probably closer now.
So right now, from that list:
Solid Republican: AK, AZ, KS, WY, NC (37 EC votes)
Weak Republican: CO, FL (36 EC votes)
Solid Democrat: CA, DE, IA, MD, OR, PA, NY (134 EC votes)
Weak Democrat: NH, NV (9 EC votes)
The only reason I have FL listed as weak Republican in my amateur analysis is because the last numbers were gathered in June, and it's still somewhat close. I don't think it's going blue this year, just like I don't think NH is going red this year. The two actual wildcards are CO and NV.
