polyh3dron
Banned
lol post convention bumpcapslock said:
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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts
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Frank the Great
Banned
Beavertown said:
Um, here are the pure toss-up battle ground states:
Florida
Colorado
Ohio
Nevada
Virginia
McCain has to win every single one of these to win the election. Obama only needs 5 electoral votes. Statistically, McCain has like a 2% chance of winning based on this.
*note* I took PA, MI and NM off as battlegrounds because most people are convinced Obama will win those. Same thing with North Carolina and Missouri on McCain's side.
Anyway, start panicking guys:
Tyrone Slothrop
Banned
Cloudy said:
its like mccain's campaign is now a knock-off korean version of the obama campaign. want change? we'll how about, uh, "reform." you want a rockstar celebrity, we'll contradict ourselves and get one, too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diKgN2IDXTo
Debate is lively, Republicans will say anything to give Palin credit.
Debate is lively, Republicans will say anything to give Palin credit.
polyh3dron
Banned
HE HAD NO MONEY A YEAR AGO??Pakkidis said:
Come on now.
:lol :lol This is good.Tyrone Slothrop said:
I'll say it again - this election is now completely about change and the economy. I really can't see obama losing under this dynamic. Popular vote will be very very close.
EDIT: barring a pitiful debate performance, but frankly I expect debates to be very strong for Obama/Biden given the above dynamic.
OG_Original Gamer
Member
Tamanon said:
Well when thinking about the states that Kerry lost to Bush that were close, one being Florida. Nearly 400,000 unregistered African Americans that don't believe that their vote count, in the state alone. For democrats southern states should be in play.
Everything in the next week needs to be viewed in the context of a normal convention bounce. This is what fivethirtyeight was predicting before either convention started:Cheebs said:
So far the trackers are matching that quite closely.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html
Also, the AP has a more holistic look at voter registrations:
Beavertown
Garbage
Frank the Great said:Um, here are the pure toss-up battle ground states:
Florida
Colorado
Ohio
Nevada
Virginia
McCain has to win every single one of these to win the election. Obama only needs 5 electoral votes. Statistically, McCain has like a 2% chance of winning based on this.
*note* I took PA, MI and NM off as battlegrounds because most people are convinced Obama will win those. Same thing with North Carolina and Missouri on McCain's side.
Anyway, start panicking guys:
Considering how close the polls are in those states, and the small lead he has in FL, then I'd say he has some pretty good odds.. much better than 2% anyway.
We're definitely not out of the woods yet.
What is your source anyway?
polyh3dron
Banned
Lemonz said:
bob_arctor
Tough_Smooth
Slurpy said:
:lol You gotta understand, we're a country of mostly assholes.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
GhaleonEB said:Everything in the next week needs to be viewed in the context of a normal convention bounce. This is what fivethirtyeight was predicting before either convention started:
So far the trackers are matching that quite closely.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html
Also, the AP has a more holistic look at voter registrations:
wow. its pretty crazy how accurate that was.
Chiggs
Gold Member
Slurpy said:
I've mentioned this before, but people who really think it's going to be just like Bush/Cheney if McCain/Palin win are just flatout wrong. There's been so many promises of hope and mavericking that whoever gets in is just going to have to shake things up, or risk a Presidency that's comparable to the last.
I know a lot of you certainly don't buy the McCain maverick thing because of how he's played ball with the Republican base, but if he does get in, I certainly expect changes to be made. Bill Maher had a funny quote about this last night where he, speaking as McCain, said "I'm 72 years old, ahh fuck it," or something to that affect. I think that's pretty spot-on. McCain still holds a good deal of resentment at his own party, which has made this convention, at least for me, amusing on many levels.
I know the "We don't need another four years" stuff is all the rage, but the fact is: it wouldn't be.
speculawyer
Member
Frank the Great said:
Our system is so fucked. We really need to amend the constitution and move to a national popular vote. It is bullshit that most people's votes are largely irrelevant due to the redstate/bluestate divide such that a few states (usually the same few states) are the ones that always drive the election.
OG_Original Gamer
Member
Slurpy said:
There like Cipher from the Matrix, ignorance is bliss. The real world and reality is over rated. And as Nino Brown said, " Money talks and bullshit runs the government". Some people are like flies, they're attracted to shit.
Pardon my language.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SB2jk0FbqNw
AHAHAHAHAHA
Maher: "Im willing to bet a years pay that no Obama kid will ever come home like that (pregnant) because I am sure Michelle Obama will sit those girls down and say I will knock the black off your ass if you ever walked in the room looking like that"
Great discussion
AHAHAHAHAHA
Maher: "Im willing to bet a years pay that no Obama kid will ever come home like that (pregnant) because I am sure Michelle Obama will sit those girls down and say I will knock the black off your ass if you ever walked in the room looking like that"
Great discussion
Door2Dawn said:
The best way to poll the average American's intelligence is to drive to the nearest freeway entrance.
1. How was your merge?
2. How many SUVs do you see?
3. Count the number of extracab F150s you see driving around with nothing in the back.
4. Count how many people you see using their cellphone.
5. Count how many people are using anything even approaching the correct stopping distance between cars.
6. How many people signaled to demonstrate an intended merge in a timely fashion?
Now exit the freeway and drive home.
sevenchaos
Banned
:lol :lol Where's that from?Lemonz said:
adamsappel
Member
I asked this before, but it got lost in the shuffle.
How does the town feel about the debt? Did she drag the little one-horse town into the big time? Is it improved? We laugh at the pictures of the "city hall" and that one street, but I've never seen a photo of the sports complex, and whatever else the money went towards. If the debt did little more than polish a turd, then it was a waste and she should be called on it, but if it really improved the town and created jobs, infrastructure, and fostered opportunity for the citizens to improve, then it was a good decision.
And the same for the jet. Was it costing money to keep it maintained & housed? It can be more fiscally prudent to sell something for an immediate loss (taxes, needed infusion of ready cash, etc.) than to hold onto it hoping for a better offer.
How does the town feel about the debt? Did she drag the little one-horse town into the big time? Is it improved? We laugh at the pictures of the "city hall" and that one street, but I've never seen a photo of the sports complex, and whatever else the money went towards. If the debt did little more than polish a turd, then it was a waste and she should be called on it, but if it really improved the town and created jobs, infrastructure, and fostered opportunity for the citizens to improve, then it was a good decision.
And the same for the jet. Was it costing money to keep it maintained & housed? It can be more fiscally prudent to sell something for an immediate loss (taxes, needed infusion of ready cash, etc.) than to hold onto it hoping for a better offer.
WickedAngel
Banned
Since McCain likes to make a political tool of his POW experience, has anyone ever called him on the blatant misrepresentations of supposed support that he has from these veterans associations? He has claimed (On numerous occasions) to have a perfect voting record with them which is a complete fabrication.
I'm talking about mainstream media here; I know a few vets have called his bullshit on numerous town hall meetings but they were always drowned out by the applause of the lemmings when McCain responded with another pleasant sounding lie.
Most people wouldn't take issue if that was the case but that isn't really the issue anyways. People are angry because they've been telling blatant lies about how it was sold, the money it made, and possibly even the justifications for selling it(If a friend was truly given a good deal on it). I don't know if that third piece is true but the first two are beyond a shadow of a doubt.
I'm talking about mainstream media here; I know a few vets have called his bullshit on numerous town hall meetings but they were always drowned out by the applause of the lemmings when McCain responded with another pleasant sounding lie.
adamsappel said:
Most people wouldn't take issue if that was the case but that isn't really the issue anyways. People are angry because they've been telling blatant lies about how it was sold, the money it made, and possibly even the justifications for selling it(If a friend was truly given a good deal on it). I don't know if that third piece is true but the first two are beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Manmademan
Member
Door2Dawn said:
THIS.
McCain has sacrificed everything and anything that could have been remotely viewed as good judgement or sticking to his principles to get himself elected. He's pandering to the exact same assholes he used to hold in contempt.
There's no reason at all to think this is going to suddenly stop if he's elected this year, especially since there's still 2012 to think about.
Tyrone Slothrop
Banned
Chiggs said:
i'll admit that its kind of a stretch to say that a mccain presidency WILL be another term of bush. but i don't see any evidence to the contrary that mccain would appoint people who marched to the beat of bush's drum the past 8 years, and that things would be fundamentally different.
i think the GOP is sincerely trying to reform themselves, and they will. but the notion that it's going to happen all of a sudden so people should vote mccain is laughable. like i said, i think they'll break from the bush-cheney mold but it's not going to happen overnight. its time to pass things off to the other side for a term or two.
From a town hall Obama is speaking at right now.sevenchaos said:
http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1
Pakkidis said:
Amazing. Literally every word that came out of that tool's mouth was bullshit.
'We don't know who Barack Obama is'.. 'We know who Sarah Palin is'
Go fuck yourself, Steel. I have trouble sleeping at night thinking about how so many people in this world can be so disingenuous.
Chiggs
Gold Member
Manmademan said:
Uh, yes there is. If McCain gets in, pulls a heel turn and manages to win the country's favor--or at least do a good job--he won't need to worry about 2012, because he'll have four solid years of experience. Is the RNC going to abandon him and find another nominee?
McCain to run as independent in 2012 confirmed?
bob_arctor
Tough_Smooth
Chiggs said:
There's no fucking way I would ever vote for a person willing to sell-out almost completely in hopes that maybe, just maybe, they revert back to their former self once they get the prize. Considering he's paired himself with someone that is the ideological mirror of Bush, I just don't see the logic in that kind of hope.
OG_Original Gamer
Member
Chiggs said:
Well, assuming he wins. If he goes for a second term, appealing to the base and the big wigs that backed him financially, he would be inclined to follow the same line as Bush through his first term.
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
After watching Daily Show this week, there's no other explaination to why McCain is still so close
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