Justin Bailey
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You know, the longer this goes on the more I think he might actually pick Clinton.
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PoliGAF Interim Thread of USA General Elections (DAWN OF THE VEEP)
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Justin Bailey said:
The only thing that makes me doubt it is the fact that, as 538 reported, Clinton was lukewarm on the campaign trail yesterday.
If they were to pick Clinton, there would have to have been discussions before the announcement on the role Bill would have in the campaign. Axelrod & co would want to control the rollout and the way the campaign would run until November and the way Bill would behave through it beforehand. They would not choose Clinton without the assurance that Bill would keep as quiet as possible.
Therefore, if Clinton was lukewarm, she wasn't told that she would be the VP and Biden is the only sensible option for this late a rollout. We'll know soon enough anyway.
Hillary pisses off not only conservatives who would never vote Democratic, but a lot of moderate and even some liberal voters. That is the point I am trying to make. True, she definitely got a lot of votes. At the same time, a primary is not the general election. Just because Hillary gets x votes in state A, more than anyone else, does not mean she would beat McCain there in the general. A lot of places where Hillary got more votes than anyone is when the Republicans already knew McCain was likely going to be the nominee and didn't waste their gas going out to vote -- whereas the Democrats had ongoing drama until the last possible primary. And then of course we had a bunch of fuckwits out there with an "operation chaos" type of mindset, thanks to tools like Rush Limbaugh.PhoenixDark said:
Looking back, the primaries were ridiculous and I'd much rather just forget about them. If Obama is giving a truly supportive Hillary the cold shoulder, it isn't hard to understand why, dude.
He already made up his mind... so Clinton is not the reason why he's waiting, should that be his choice.Justin Bailey said:
Anyway, seems like a Romney pick would be disastrous for McCain's campaign. I welcome it.
Justin Bailey
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But that's the point, he knows it will be a slam dunk decision so he's holding his ace in the hole - so to speak.Diablos said:
I'm still like 80% sure it's going to be Biden though.
Justin Bailey
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Yeah, Obama needs a background attacker to counter his "lets all negotiate and get along happy fun time" ideals. Right now my arbitrary VP prediction percentages are:Diablos said:
80% Biden
10% Clinton
10% Kaine
I'm still in awe of this McCain's Houses story.. it's the gift that keeps on giving.
Of course, I suspect Obama would hold-off on his VP announcement (if it were planned for today) so that this houses story can live a little bit longer.
On the topic VP, here's a pretty interesting article regarding the timing. It brings-up an important question: when campaigns usually devote a bit of time introducing the new VP candidate to American voters, what happens when there is no time to do so?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/one-veep-clue-worth-worrying-about.html
Of course, I suspect Obama would hold-off on his VP announcement (if it were planned for today) so that this houses story can live a little bit longer.
On the topic VP, here's a pretty interesting article regarding the timing. It brings-up an important question: when campaigns usually devote a bit of time introducing the new VP candidate to American voters, what happens when there is no time to do so?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/one-veep-clue-worth-worrying-about.html
UltimaKilo
Gold Member
So I wake up two hours ago to the news and I see reports that Hillary Clinton might get the nod. This would be megaton, though highly unlikely... right?
UltimaKilo said:
It seems I really have forgetten just how dirty she campaigned in the primaries. I almost was at the point of forgiving her and thinking she'd be a decent VP but after going back and seeing all of the ads, the smears, etc I do NOT want her anywhere near Obama's administration.
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
Since the VP is an independent thinker who will challenge Obama's policies, does that sound like Biden to you guys?
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
Hootie said:
this
and the way her and her husband acted after the primaries were disgusting. I understand you put alot into it, and you almost won and its painful but give respect where its due...
TheKingsCrown
Banned
Exactly. The reason I'm calling it for Clinton is that Obama is an extremely strategic kind of guy (as evidenced by his defeat of the Clintons), and I think he will forget everything to recognize the power she brings.
The Librarian
Banned
Where is Dax's new thread?!
maximum360
Member
the disgruntled gamer said:
For it to be Hillary, she and Bill would have to be willing to eat some serious crow and do a full 180 about many statements they made about Obama in the primaries before they both went on the attack against McCain. It would make big news at first but I think after the news media is done sensationalizing it, it would probably work out to Obama's advantage...but only probably if he confined her campaigning to the rust belt and Florida. He should keep her away from the other swing states (except maybe Nevada and Indiana. At the same time though, Hilary will undoubtedly energize the Republican base and may turn off some independents. It's hard to know whether she would do more harm than good at this point (and I don't think Bill will ever humble out). Also, there's no guarantee that Hillary in anything but at the top of the ticket will persuade some to vote for Obama.
Biden is a safe choice (if he can stay gaffe-free and doesn't try to claim the spotlight) because of his credentials and he seems more down to earth than either McCain or Obama. He can potentially be very effective in courting the blue collar white voters Obama needs. If Biden was only from IN, he would have probably been the pick a long time ago.
The Librarian
Banned
Ghal, where is my new thread?!?!?!GhaleonEB said:
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
Insertia said:
thats the type of shit i dont like
Guts Of Thor
Thorax of Odin
~Devil Trigger~ said:
That's American politics. I said it once and I'll say it again: If you are not willing to crack a few skulls and snap some necks, you will not win.
Smiles and Cries
Member
any minute now Obama
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
Guts Of Thor said:
Obama defeated Hilary
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
I'm not sure what's taking him so long to formalize his Biden pick. I'm just hoping the text message will go out before it leaks to the media. I'm betting it'll leak like 30 minutes before the text/email gets out. If it doesn't, I'll be even more impressed with Obama than I am so far with the leak-less VP pick.
Guts Of Thor
Thorax of Odin
~Devil Trigger~ said:
Very true. I guess I'm just tired of taking the high road. I want to see some blood and guts.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
FlightOfHeaven said:
DUDE! That's exactly what Obama did with the 2nd Olympics ad that's been playing for the last 2 weeks.
He had the words displayed on the ad as people were LITERALLY performing the jobs that he was talking about that he wanted to create.
How much more dummy proof do you want him to be?
Guts Of Thor said:
A-friggin'-men.
A candidate might get away with the "warm-and-fuzzy" thing with Democratic primary voters, but general election swing voters are an entirely different breed of (stoopid) animal.
Losing because you refuse to fight dirty is NOT noble or honorable; letting the country continue to go down the shitter for another four years because of your "morals" is the opposite of noble.
Justin Bailey
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Well he does have the republican attack squad on his side. I'd probably give Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh more credit than John McCain.sangreal said:
The Librarian
Banned
Dax wants his new thread now...RubxQub said:
BotoxAgent
Member
sangreal said:
But he's not a good attacker!!
He just unleashes the Rove nimrods to do his dirty work. Plus, it doesn't hurt that the press gives him a free pass on everything.
UltimaKilo
Gold Member
Hootie said:
Last I heard, this was called politics. I see McCain and Obama put each other down and they are both really good candidates, albeit radically different from the regular Democrat and Republican.
PhoenixDark
Banned
polyh3dron said:
McCain's war record is untouchable though, especially concerning Obama. If he were to attack it people would react very negatively; as you said, many voters are already looking for any reason to dismiss Obama, and an attack on the military record would just (unfortunately) confirm the " he's anti-American" bullshit
I think he can and should say that while McCain's service was heroic, serving in the military does not equate to good judgment on foreign policy, as evidence by McCain's support of a war that should have never been waged: it's a safer way of saying what Clark tried to point out
http://politicalwire.com/
UltimaKilo
Gold Member
RubxQub said:
And Obama the very typical Democrat. In 2000 McCain never won the nomination, before the nomination Obama could be called "different". Now it's just a presidential race like any other. But people's political views blinds them from this making their candidate more righteous and then dehumanize the other. Nothing new.
Then when whomever gets elected, be it Obama or McCain, the people will dislike because they can never do the things they promise on the campaign trail. But you know, there are still people that are so blinded that believe Obama is going to bring change and that McCain is their "friend" just because they say it in all their speeches. :lol
PhoenixDark
Banned
Either Biden is the pick or he was so crushed by Obama telling him no that he needed family support, and probably lots of whiskey. Both seem logical
BotoxAgent
Member
UltimaKilo said:
I know BO can't fulfill all his promises of change. But at least his talking points are more sane than McSame. At least BO can acknowledge that things are fucked up.
Edit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7PfSEtiXPw
:lol
The Librarian
Banned
Biden will commit suicide if there isn't a new PoliGAF thread made on NeoGaf.RubxQub said:
you obviously haven't been doing your reading.UltimaKilo said:
siamesedreamer
Banned
polyh3dron said:
Kerry made himself open to attacks because he never allowed the Navy to release his military records to the public. It wasn't until June 2005 - after the election - when he finally decided to sign the release waver. For what reason I'm not sure, but they were virtually identical to what he himself released during the campaign. Which begs the question as to why he didn't allow their release in the first place.
Has McCain allowed the Navy to release his records?
BotoxAgent
Member
what are the chances of McCain picking Huck as VP?
UltimaKilo
Gold Member
BotoxAgent said:
McCain has already make it a point to say "we are worse off than we were 4 years ago", so I suppose that he has acknowledged it in his new television ad. They both have, otherwise it would be political suicide.
There is a horrible problem in government, the President (Republican) has a 32% approval rating and congress (Democrat) has half that at 16%. It's tough for the candidates, especially McCain. McCain is not a strong Republican candidate, the base is weary of him and still sore over his record. Obama has almost no record and no experience, something that Billary pounded him on, so while most of the base is behind him, he is having trouble courting the Clinton and "Reagan Democrats".
While I'm having fun this political season, it is nowhere as fun as 2004. It seems like both candidates are pretty much the same.
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