If anyone is interested here is a good site for tracking kickstarter data. Shows how many backers and how much money was generated per day, also extrapolates the data out and creates a trending line.
It currently shows Godus as falling short of its goal. The trending line is usually pretty accurate. Projects like Pier Solar and Star Citizen were always trending far above their funding goal.
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/22cans/project-godus/
While its impossible to track a trending line with raw data to take into account social media or the 'last day push' that these titles seem to give. What I think is interesting is that Godus is trending to only get 81% of its goal, and this trend is dropping daily.
What I'm getting at is the 'last day push' and other factors that the trending line cannot take into account may not be enough to push this project into the funded category.
Right now the last 24 hours would need to earn somewhere in the region of 85,000 pounds. I've been monitoring this project daily and the trending line is dropping pretty significantly. It has started to even out over the past week and has lost 100,000 pounds in that time.
If this data continues the trending line could drop down to 75% of the goal which would be 115,000 pounds short. Keep in mind that Godus hasn't even earned over 60,000 pounds in a day even during the first 72 hours, which typically has some of the highest donation amounts for a project.
I think kind of case in point here is the Project Eternity Kickstarter.
Look at the trending line:
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/obsidian/project-eternity/#chart-exp-trend
The trending line really evens out in the last two weeks of the project and is showing the trend to fall about about 3.75 million, this is exactly where Godus is right now as well. The end funding ended at 3.9 million, this shows a margin of error about 3-4% in the last two weeks. Very small.
Then take a look at money/backers per day:
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/obsidian/project-eternity/#chart-daily
Notice that the first few days earned a decently larger margin than what was earned during the 'last push'
We will see, but I think Molyneux is right to be worried about the Kickstarter.