(Report) Sony will ship the most next-generation consoles through 2008 - forecast

November 30, 2004 08:01 AM US Eastern Timezone

In-Stat/MDR Reports Declining Shipments and Prices Continue as Game Console Market Awaits the Next Generation

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 30, 2004--The video game console market remains in the back end of its current cycle, with declining shipments expected to continue until the next generation of consoles come to market, reports In-Stat/MDR (http://www.instat.com). The high-tech market research firm finds that Sony is still dominating the market with its PlayStation 2 (PS2) console, which shipped its 70 millionth unit in January 2004.

"As is typical with the back end of a market, this one is characterized by companies cutting prices on both hardware and software to entice more casual, value-oriented consumers," said Brian O'Rourke, a senior analyst with In-Stat/MDR. "However, as can be expected, year-over-year shipment declines will continue until all next-generation consoles are on the market in 2006."

The first next-generation console should hit the market in the fourth quarter of 2005 with the introduction of Microsoft's Xbox 2. Sony, however, is not likely to give Microsoft too much lead time before launching its PS3 console, which should occur by mid-2006. Nintendo will try to launch its next-generation GameCube 2 console either before, or simultaneously with Sony, which Nintendo considers to be its primary competition.

In-Stat/MDR has also found that:

-- Nintendo's GameCube has performed solidly over the past year, with a worldwide price cut in the fourth quarter of 2003 significantly increasing sales.

-- Microsoft's Xbox is in a struggle with the GameCube for second place in the market. It has performed well in North America, and is doing increasingly well in Europe.

-- Sony will ship the most next-generation consoles through 2008. It has a proven track record built over the last 10 years, and has shown itself to be a marketing powerhouse. However, Microsoft and Nintendo are expected to narrow Sony's lead in the next generation.

The report, "Game Consoles 2004: Waiting for the Next Generation" (#IN0401260ME), includes a five-year shipment and revenue forecast for each current generation console: the PS2, Xbox, and GameCube, broken down by region. Shipment and revenue forecasts for the next generation of consoles are also provided through 2008. There is also an annual forecast for online console gaming subscribers through 2008. The three participants in this market, Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft, are profiled in depth in four areas: console business, marketing strategies, online plans and shipment analysis. In addition, four responses on consumers' console ownership and buying plans from In-Stat/MDR's annual Residential Technology Survey are included. To purchase this report, or for more information, please visit: http://www.instat.com/catalog/Ccatalogue.asp?id=162 or contact Erin McKeighan at 480-609-4551; emckeighan@reedbusiness.com. The report price is $2,995.
 
-- Nintendo's GameCube has performed solidly over the past year, with a worldwide price cut in the fourth quarter of 2003 significantly increasing sales.

-- Microsoft's Xbox is in a struggle with the GameCube for second place in the market. It has performed well in North America, and is doing increasingly well in Europe.

WTF????

Microsoft is blowing away their own expectations and is the only console with year over year growth. GameCube is seriously underperforming and is weaker in every market this year compared to last year.
 
jedimike said:
WTF????

Microsoft is blowing away their own expectations and is the only console with year over year growth. GameCube is seriously underperforming and is weaker in every market this year compared to last year.


lol, what the fuck happened there eh? Xbox is doing really well in the west, its basically compensating Xbox faliure in Japan
 
It comes as absolutely no surprise that the report places Microsoft and Nintendo in a very close position for the #2 spot.

It has been that way since the machines launched and will likely remain that way until the next generation.

Neither Nintendo or Microsoft can truly claim #2, as they pretty much share the spot, switching back and forth from 2 to 3. Besides, they both remain so far behind Sony, it really doesn't matter who is number 2.

In fact, it doesn't matter who is number 1, as long as everyone is making money and is profitable... oh... wait, not everyone CAN say that. Oh well.

As long as we, the gamers are happy, who the heck cares who is in what position. It's not a race. It's entertainment.
 
Gaia Theory said:
It has been that way since the machines launched and will likely remain that way until the next generation.

Wrong. Nintendo always held the #2 spot until we got confirmation that Xbox was ahead of GC by 200K at the end of June.

Neither Nintendo or Microsoft can truly claim #2, as they pretty much share the spot, switching back and forth from 2 to 3. Besides, they both remain so far behind Sony, it really doesn't matter who is number 2.

Wrong. GameCube's 500k lead over Xbox in Japan this year only accounts for half of the million plus lead Xbox has over GC in the US. Even if Canada, Europe, Australia, and every other territory were dead equal... Xbox would still be holding the #2 spot with a 750K lead.

In fact, it doesn't matter who is number 1, as long as everyone is making money and is profitable... oh... wait, not everyone CAN say that. Oh well.

Wrong. It's extremely important for MS to establish themselves as a serious contender in the market. They will need the momentum heading into next gen to establish more exclusive contracts with publishers.

As long as we, the gamers are happy, who the heck cares who is in what position. It's not a race. It's entertainment.

And on GAF... sales can be just as entertaining as games.
 
Jedimike, it might make you feel better to think MS is in the #2 spot, but they are clearly sitting on a see-saw with Nintendo on the other end.

They share the spot week by week, month by month. There is no runaway #2. Period. But if you insist, if MS wants to be a clear contender in the market, they have to be a clear contender in Japan, which so far has proven very difficult for them.
 
" Xbox would still be holding the #2 spot with a 750K lead."

Shit that's fucking incredible!!!

In other news PS2 is holding the #1 spot with a gazillion K lead.

Talk about lowered expectations.
 
One worrying trend for Nintendo is that GC shelf space in stores in Japan is now commands around the same amount of space as the Xbox.

Okay, that's somewhat anecdotal, but i'm talking about pretty much all the non-2nd hand stores in Shibuya, Shinjuku, Akihabara - which is quite a sizable sample.

Not that that helps suddenly sell Xboxes - it's just that for a machine that is so far ahead in second place (in Japan) the GC (and Xbox) are almost non-events compared to the PS2.
 
DCharlie said:
One worrying trend for Nintendo is that GC shelf space in stores in Japan is now commands around the same amount of space as the Xbox.

Okay, that's somewhat anecdotal, but i'm talking about pretty much all the non-2nd hand stores in Shibuya, Shinjuku, Akihabara - which is quite a sizable sample.

Not that that helps suddenly sell Xboxes - it's just that for a machine that is so far ahead in second place (in Japan) the GC (and Xbox) are almost non-events compared to the PS2.

Sizing down for PSP and DS perhaps?
 
DCharlie said:
"Sizing down for PSP and DS perhaps?"

it's being like this for a while.

Hmm, I didn't notice back in June. The GC shelfspace in Akihabara seemed healthy enough. Maybe it started afterwards.
 
DCharlie said:
One worrying trend for Nintendo is that GC shelf space in stores in Japan is now commands around the same amount of space as the Xbox.

Okay, that's somewhat anecdotal, but i'm talking about pretty much all the non-2nd hand stores in Shibuya, Shinjuku, Akihabara - which is quite a sizable sample.
Yeah, but those stores are not really representative of national sales as a whole. Once you get into smaller cities and Mom & Pop stores, Xbox is that weird gaijin console that they stocked for about 5 days back in 2002.
 
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