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Rottenwatch: AVATAR (82%)

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Solo said:
But its already shown many signs of being anything but typical, and having abnormal legs. Theres the 7% second week INCREASE, theres the almost non-existant day to day drops during the weekends and again during the weeks, and then theres the possibility that this might have an outside chance of a THIRD straight $70M weekend.
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Those first two things are in fact quite typical for Christmas movies released in this timeframe, especially given where Christmas fell in 2009. If you read the previous post you would see that I even gave an example of one, and explained why Christmas releases in '98 were the best comparison. The third of these would be impressive and abnormal (if it actually had a third $70 million weekend) but that hasn't happened yet, and I don't see any reason to believe it will since none of the movies it's tracking with so far did.

Its already completely unpredictable, so trying to use other regularly performing blockbusters as a gauge is a futile exercise. Like Titanic, there is no barometer here.
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I'm not using regularly performing BLOCKBUSTERS as a gauge, not from modern times anyway. That was the point of my last post. I'm using non-blockbusters and really old blockbusters as a gauge, and people on Box-Office Mojo have been using said movies to predict the "completely unpredictable" movie with astonishing accuracy. So... I don't really buy this argument. If this weekend it makes $70 million, or it actually has a drop of 35% from this week to next week, or any of the other fantastic scenarios that a few of you seem to think are given, occur, then I will happily jump aboard the "unpredictable monster" bandwagon. Until then, I like to not stray too far from the facts we have so far.
 
Sharp said:
I'm not using regularly performing BLOCKBUSTERS as a gauge, not from modern times anyway. That was the point of my last post. I'm using non-blockbusters and really old blockbusters as a gauge, and people on Box-Office Mojo have been using said movies to predict the "completely unpredictable" movie with astonishing accuracy. So... I don't really buy this argument. If this weekend it makes $70 million, or it actually has a drop of 35% from this week to next week, or any of the other fantastic scenarios that a few of you seem to think are given, occur, then I will happily jump aboard the "unpredictable monster" bandwagon. Until then, I like to not stray too far from the facts we have so far.
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The facts we have so point to Avatar passing $480m domestic at a minimum.

What is your threshold for "unpredictable monster"?
 
GhaleonEB said:
The facts we have so point to Avatar passing $480m domestic at a minimum.

What is your threshold for "unpredictable monster"?
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A $77M opening weekend for a $500M domestic grosser fits my description, but perhaps Im crazy :lol
 
GhaleonEB said:
The facts we have so point to Avatar passing $480m domestic at a minimum.

What is your threshold for "unpredictable monster"?
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My threshold for "monster" has already been met. Like I said, I can definitely see it doing Dark Knight numbers, maybe even a little bit more. It's the "unpredictable" part that is irking me, because it really isn't; it's doing what we've seen before on a larger scale. If it has a third $70 million weekend, has 35% drops after the holidays, does crazy shit like have its largest day 7 weeks into its run... Titanic-style stuff? That's an unpredictable monster box-office run, and then comments like "the sky is the limit" will make a lot more sense.
 
Sharp said:
My threshold for "monster" has already been met. Like I said, I can definitely see it doing Dark Knight numbers, maybe even a little bit more. It's the "unpredictable" part that is irking me, because it really isn't; it's doing what we've seen before on a larger scale. If it has a $70 million weekend, has 35% drops after the holidays, does crazy shit like have its largest day 7 weeks into its run... Titanic-style stuff? That's an unpredictable monster box-office run, and then comments like "the sky is the limit" will make a lot more sense.
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I guess that's what everyone else is talking about but you are dismissing as insignificant. It is not. You are comparing how Avatar has performed relative to movies with a fraction of its take. This makes zero sense - compare apples to apples.

Movies that open this big don't do what Avatar has done. Full stop.

As I pointed out: no movie that had $100m+ its first week has even gone up its second week (that I've found yet), much less $137m. How on earth is that not unpredictable?

Let me put it differently. Here's the top 4 from yesterday:

1. AVATAR (Fox) [3,456 runs] Week 2
Wed $18.5M (+1), Thurs $14.9M (-19%), Cume $283.8
2. ALVIN SQUEAKQUEL (Fox) [3,700] Week 2
Wed $11.8M (-6%), Thurs $8.7M (-26%), Cume $120.7M
3. SHERLOCK HOLMES (Warner Bros) [3,626] Week 1
Wed $9.7M (-5%), Thurs $8.7M (-10%), Cume $102.3M
4. IT'S COMPLICATED (Warner Bros) [2,887] Week 1
Wed $4.4M (+3%), Thurs $5.3M (+22%), Cume $40.3M

It's Complicated went up 22% yesterday. Why couldn't Avatar?

The answer is because it's apples and oranges.
 
GhaleonEB said:
I guess that's what everyone else is talking about but you are dismissing as insignificant. It is not. You are comparing how Avatar has performed relative to movies with a fraction of its take. This makes zero sense - compare apples to apples.

Movies that open this big don't do what Avatar has done. Full stop.

As I pointed out: no movie that had $100m+ its first week has even gone up its second week (that I've found yet), much less $137m. How on earth is that not unpredictable?

Let me put it differently. Here's the top 4 from yesterday:

1. AVATAR (Fox) [3,456 runs] Week 2
Wed $18.5M (+1), Thurs $14.9M (-19%), Cume $283.8
2. ALVIN SQUEAKQUEL (Fox) [3,700] Week 2
Wed $11.8M (-6%), Thurs $8.7M (-26%), Cume $120.7M
3. SHERLOCK HOLMES (Warner Bros) [3,626] Week 1
Wed $9.7M (-5%), Thurs $8.7M (-10%), Cume $102.3M
4. IT'S COMPLICATED (Warner Bros) [2,887] Week 1
Wed $4.4M (+3%), Thurs $5.3M (+22%), Cume $40.3M

It's Complicated went up 22% yesterday. Why couldn't Avatar?

The answer is because it's apples and oranges.
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Big blockbusters from back in the '90s did it pretty routinely, actually, in terms of number of tickets sold; going that far back you really can't discount inflation. Again, there were only three movies with $100+ million first weeks before 2000. Period. It was the equivalent of Twilight: New Moon doing $72 million in a single day, except even moreso because movies weren't as frontloaded at the time. Now, if you're asking me whether I would have expected Avatar to be this successful before it came out, hell no. I was just as surprised and excited as anyone at its first week drops and its great second week hold, but by now the pattern has been established and people are still acting shocked when it meets expectations and predicting unreasonable things.
 
Sharp said:
Big blockbusters from back in the '90s did it pretty routinely, actually, in terms of number of tickets sold; going that far back you really can't discount inflation.
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Going back that far, even with inflation, you can't find a movie that opened with $100m and went up the next week. Which is my point. I'm going to take this reponse to be you conceding that point.

If you can find a movie that, even adjusted for inflation, had $100m opening week an went up the second week, we'll talk. Until then you are just changing the subject away every time I make a simple point. When you have to pivot to ticket numbers sold a couple decades ago and away from box office, which is what we're talking about, the conversation is pretty much over.
 
Wait, people are still underestimating the record-smashing numbers that we will see the next few weeks?

Here's a fact: Limited 3D screens + lengthy film time = narrow amount of showings. This, coupled with the 3D ticket price premium, ensures that the numbers will NOT be your standard box office hit. The sky is the limit.
 
Gui_PT said:
Final Fantasy is still going on?

Jebus Christ.

BTTF II got it wrong. It's not Jaws 19 we'll be having in 2015, it's FF 19 :lol
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That reminds me, the Future has 5 years to get me my hoverboards and flying cars.

I haven't forgotten.
 
ryutaro's mama said:
That reminds me, the Future has 5 years to get me my hoverboards and flying cars.

I haven't forgotten.
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2q2irs2.gif
 
I remember there were certain scenes where Quaritch was completely CGI just so Cameron could throw off the audience - what moments were those again? Was it when he was in the mech on the ground in Pandora? Or was it just a single moment?
 
Shrinnan said:
I remember there were certain scenes where Quaritch was completely CGI just so Cameron could throw off the audience - what moments were those again? Was it when he was in the mech on the ground in Pandora? Or was it just a single moment?
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Yep.
Later on in the film. Mostly when he's in the mech.
 
Yeah, just want to chip in that the movie was AMAZING visually. This was the first 3-D movie I saw and there were scenes in the film where I actually waved my hand in front of me since the 3-D was so convincing. I want to watch it again.
 
Onix said:
There's certainly a fairly large contingent of gaffers eating crow right now
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I refuse to bite into my crow. It's not my fault that the marketing people on this failed so utterly that they made me, of all people, doubt Cameron.
Onix said:
The dimmer picture isn't a 'gimmick', and not something they want. It simply the reality of the technology right now.
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No, 3D is the neat gimmick. The dimmer picture is just an unfortunate side-effect.
Jtwo said:
I could see a Micheal Bay movie in 3D.
I like Micheal Bay, he makes fun movies.
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I left Avatar with a pretty bad headache. ($12.50 + headache = totally worth it.)
I wouldn't last five minutes watching a 3D Bay movie.
Hell, I got violently ill watching a 2D movie once, but it was sub-Bay. Yes, every stall in the men's room at the theater I saw Speed 2 in was occupied by someone puking, including a little boy who sounded like he was going to die.
 
TAJ said:
I refuse to bite into my crow. It's not my fault that the marketing people on this failed so utterly that they made me, of all people, doubt Cameron.

No, 3D is the neat gimmick. The dimmer picture is just an unfortunate side-effect.

I left Avatar with a pretty bad headache. ($12.50 + headache = totally worth it.)
I wouldn't last five minutes watching a 3D Bay movie.
Hell, I got violently ill watching a 2D movie once, but it was sub-Bay. Yes, every stall in the men's room at the theater I saw Speed 2 in was occupied by someone puking, including a little boy who sounded like he was going to die.
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WTF
 
Mikey Jr. said:
One more thing, how would a sequel work for this movie? I don't see it personally. Like, what would it be about?
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Well the sequel would be about The RDA Strike Back. The one after would be Return of Eywa. Quite obvious, really.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Week 1 | 137,094,051
Week 2 | 146,692,023

Difference | 9,597,972
Increase | 7%

Is there any other movie that made $100m or more its first week and still increased in its second week? Honest question. I can't think of any to even look up.
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Are we going to die, Ghaleon?
 
neoism said:
WTF
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It's simple really. Speed 2 is filled with exaggerated shakey-cam in narrow, dark corridors with flashing lights. Now factor in a dark theater and having the picture taking up my entire FOV.
I never get motion sickness from actual motion, though.
 
U K Narayan said:
It's either Aliens or Terminator 2, for me. Both are really - really good.
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Just saw T2 again a month ago. I really like it, but some of the comedy relief and one liners kinda hurt the film. There's none of that stuff in Aliens. Well, none that's distractingly bad anyway (like "I need a vacation").
 
AniHawk said:
I still think it's his best movie.
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I'd rank the Cameron films as:

Avatar > The Abyss (in spite of its godawful ending) > Aliens > Terminator > T2/True Lies/Titanic (I don't like any of them)
 
Blader5489 said:
I'd rank the Cameron films as:

Avatar > The Abyss (in spite of its godawful ending) > Aliens > Terminator > T2/True Lies/Titanic (I don't like any of them)
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Die
 
My order is:

Aliens SE,T2,Terminator,True Lies, AVATAR, Rambo 2, T2: Battle across Time,Titanic, Abyss (Mustache Biehn ruined it for me somehow, don't ask me why), Strange Days.

Never saw his documentaries or Piranha 2.
 
I thought maybe after the opening weekend hype died down, my impressions of the movie would diminish but holy fuck this movie is the real deal. A landmark and one of the coolest experiences in the theater.
 
coldvein said:
I'd say so. Jeeeeeesus H. Christ did it get the message through.
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That's actually the best argument for the sequels. Cameron won't have to spend time on the message at all since he covered it more than enough already. He can focus on more important things and especially bring more depth into the series.
 
Combine said:
That's actually the best argument for the sequels. Cameron won't have to spend time on the message at all since he covered it more than enough already. He can focus on more important things and especially bring more depth into the series.
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Sort of like how subtle the message was in Terminator 2.

Sarah Connor: [narrating] The unknown future rolls toward us. I face it, for the first time, with a sense of hope. Because if a machine, a Terminator, can learn the value of human life, maybe we can too.
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As for the Cameron list, I'd rank them:

Titanic
Aliens (Special Edition)
The Terminator
The Abyss (Special Edition)
Terminator 2
True Lies

Most of these are pretty close together, with True Lies a ways back.

I need some time for Avatar to sink in, see how it holds up at home, and see if a director's cut is in the works to really get a feel for it.

As for depth, everything I've read about material filmed but cut from the theatrical edition makes me thing we need an extended director's cut, rather than a sequel.
 
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