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[Panajev2001a]

Switch OLED. Switch 2 will cost a lot more to make.

… Switch 2 is coming out a lot later than Switch and Switch OLED, but sure by this logic every new generation should increase price by $50-100 or so, welcome Switch 3 at $699 ?

Nintendo can surely make that leap and then increase the price by another $50 for the OLED update later on, but this brings Switch into a very high price range for them.

 

[Hudo]

I just want to see what Nintendo are cooking for the next 3D Mario game.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Maybe they will be more aggressive with pricing, but I think it would be odd of them to not price it higher than Switch OLED. Switch 2 will cost a lot more to make.


The 3DS was fully revealed in June 2010 and launched Q1 2011. They can do something similar.

A lot has changed in nearly 15 years...

 

[Area61]

Finally another console where Rockstar could bring their game GTA V in 2025.

 

[Woopah]

… Switch 2 is coming out a lot later than Switch and Switch OLED, but sure by this logic every new generation should increase price by $50-100 or so, welcome Switch 3 at $699 ?

Nintendo can surely make that leap and then increase the price by another $50 for the OLED update later on, but this brings Switch into a very high price range for them.

Depends if there has been the same level of cost inflation. After all, the main PS5 model was priced higher than the PS4 or PS4 Pro. Maybe Nintendo could do something similar have the main model at $399 and the budget model at $299 or $349.

A lot has changed in nearly 15 years...

What has changed that would make that marketing cycle no longer work?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Depends if there has been the same level of cost inflation. After all, the main PS5 model was priced higher than the PS4 or PS4 Pro. Maybe Nintendo could do something similar have the main model at $399 and the budget model at $299 or $349.

There is still price elasticity related to products for families and children. The more expensive it is, the less likely you'll buy multiple ones for families with multiple kids.

They already have to convince people to upgrade a switch to a switch 2 just to play Mario Kart 9. That's always been a pretty tall order for them.

What has changed that would make that marketing cycle no longer work?

The speed in which gaming changes and the speed in which competition can catch up to you.

Gaming is bigger than ever before and although the Switch has been a massive success, it's also merged Nintendo's console and handheld brands together.

Inherently, that's A LOT of risk. So slowing down Switch sales AND giving your competitors time to catch up to you, maybe isn't the wisest move.

I've contended for a while now that a handheld PS5 (downscaled similar to the Switch and Series S) would take a big chunk out of the Switch 2s sales, particularly in Japan.

The way the internet, social media, and communications... I would expect the Switch sales to really dry up for the remainder of the year, which could in turn make the PS5 userbase grow faster (especially with no Switch 2 taking up sales for the rest of the year). A larger user base for the PS5 as a console, greatly helps the sales potential of a handheld PS5.

If Switch sells 150 million units and Switch 2 sells 100 million units, I'm not sure that the combined handheld/console strategy will have been considered a success the second time around.

 

[ADiTAR]

There is still price elasticity related to products for families and children. The more expensive it is, the less likely you'll buy multiple ones for families with multiple kids.

They already have to convince people to upgrade a switch to a switch 2 just to play Mario Kart 9. That's always been a pretty tall order for them.



The speed in which gaming changes and the speed in which competition can catch up to you.

Gaming is bigger than ever before and although the Switch has been a massive success, it's also merged Nintendo's console and handheld brands together.

Inherently, that's A LOT of risk. So slowing down Switch sales AND giving your competitors time to catch up to you, maybe isn't the wisest move.

I've contended for a while now that a handheld PS5 (downscaled similar to the Switch and Series S) would take a big chunk out of the Switch 2s sales, particularly in Japan.

The way the internet, social media, and communications... I would expect the Switch sales to really dry up for the remainder of the year, which could in turn make the PS5 userbase grow faster (especially with no Switch 2 taking up sales for the rest of the year). A larger user base for the PS5 as a console, greatly helps the sales potential of a handheld PS5.

If Switch sells 150 million units and Switch 2 sells 100 million units, I'm not sure that the combined handheld/console strategy will have been considered a success the second time around.

Do you have your early predictions for Switch? like Jan 2017?

 

[UltimaKilo]

Maybe they will be more aggressive with pricing, but I think it would be odd of them to not price it higher than Switch OLED. Switch 2 will cost a lot more to make.


The 3DS was fully revealed in June 2010 and launched Q1 2011. They can do something similar.

It would completely crater the sales of a product that is still selling strong, particularly for the holidays. Seems far fetched.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Do you have your early predictions for Switch? like Jan 2017?

?

Switch had no competition... I love when people think they're making a sound argument, but they're not anywhere close.

Nintendo has a real problem on their hands continuing to thread the needle on a device set to work both as a console and as a handheld.

Hybrid technology is generally seen as favorable and convenient, until the technologies that it is hybridizing get too far ahead of it. Then hybrid becomes a burden.

Your goal is often to combine the best of two worlds, but you can easily end up combining the worst of two worlds. Did I have early predictions for the Switch? A system that had no competition? Not that I can recall.

• Price
• Efficiency
• Effectiveness

All things that are generally abandoned by taking a hybrid approach.

Things that the Switch 1 lacks... portability (the least portable form factor of any nintendo handheld), it wasn't cheap for the tech, and it wasn't especially powerful.

None of these factors really hurt the Switch because it didn't have any real competition.

• Enter competition you have a different dynamic
• Potentially increase price even further and you have a different dynamic, particularly to what is probably the most cost-conscious segment in non-gaming
• You're once again in a position where you're trying to sell a device upgrade to people who aren't motivated by graphics

The question for the competition is can you beat Nintendo on portability, power, and price? Two of the three? Even three of the three? It comes down to how much of a profit Nintendo decides to sell the Switch 2 for vs another manufacturer who might subsidize hardware rather than profit on it.

 

[StereoVsn]

I'd imagine that could mean a significant price cut ($100?) to the Switch, to clear out stocks over Christmas.

Plenty of people still out there who would buy a cheap Switch even knowing a new, but probably more expensive model was coming soon in the new year.

Could be $50 cut and new Switch will be $500 on release.

Edit: For portability you could always get Switch Lite. For $200 it’s a damn good device.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

If it launches 2025 we won’t see it this year. That would tank the Christmas season for Switch.

People would be seriously pissed if Nintendo were to launch the Switch 2 at CES.

I think Nintendo could get away with it (releasing the Switch 2 with no native games, provided there's some form of BC) but it's understandable they don't want to do that.

 

[ADiTAR]

?

Switch had no competition... I love when people think they're making a sound argument, but they're not anywhere close.

Nintendo has a real problem on their hands continuing to thread the needle on a device set to work both as a console and as a handheld.

Hybrid technology is generally seen as favorable and convenient, until the technologies that it is hybridizing get too far ahead of it. Then hybrid becomes a burden.

Your goal is often to combine the best of two worlds, but you can easily end up combining the worst of two worlds. Did I have early predictions for the Switch? A system that had no competition? Not that I can recall.

• Price
• Efficiency
• Effectiveness

All things that are generally abandoned by taking a hybrid approach.

Things that the Switch 1 lacks... portability (the least portable form factor of any nintendo handheld), it wasn't cheap for the tech, and it wasn't especially powerful.

None of these factors really hurt the Switch because it didn't have any real competition.

• Enter competition you have a different dynamic
• Potentially increase price even further and you have a different dynamic, particularly to what is probably the most cost-conscious segment in non-gaming
• You're once again in a position where you're trying to sell a device upgrade to people who aren't motivated by graphics

The question for the competition is can you beat Nintendo on portability, power, and price? Two of the three? Even three of the three? It comes down to how much of a profit Nintendo decides to sell the Switch 2 for vs another manufacturer who might subsidize hardware rather than profit on it.

All this text... why not answer the question tho?

 

[ahtlas7]

Come on, don’t tease me.

Let’s get a look at that launch lineup!

 

[Kokoloko85]

fine. then release 9ish months later

9 months? Dont they normally release a console after like 5-6 months max

 

[Kokoloko85]

Let’s get a look at that launch lineup!

Metroid 4
Some new ip like Arms.
Mario Kart
A party game like 1-2 Switch
And then a few months later, a 3D Mario game, either a Galaxy 3 or something like 64, Sunshine, Odyssey

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

There is an 'insider' claiming a marketing campaing for Metroid will start on may, i guess we will see if Prime 4 is finally revealed on April

I don't doubt Prime 2 and 3 will get the remaster treatment, after how well Prime 1 remaster was recieved but they will be separate releases the bundle rumor never made any sense, if Nintendo wants to bring the Metroid Prime brand back in a big way

I can see Prime being their big fall game for the core, alongside Pokémon. It will be a light year for the Switch, Prime & Pokemon may be it for 2024 after TTYD and Luigi’s Mansion hit.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

9 months? Dont they normally release a console after like 5-6 months max

To your second question, the only example of this is Switch. In the past they would announce the next console at the e3 the year before release year. But that much time is not needed anymore. So the normal model before Switch was 18 months or so from reveal to release.

 

[Audiophile]

$329 LCD
$379 OLED

 

[Imtjnotu]

Don't care for the price. Day one.

Can't live with out super smash

 

[Solarstrike]

Is there a contest for Switch 2 rumors or something. Wtf man, stop with these rumors fucking hell slam my nuts in a car door.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

I won't argue that point... but I think Nintendo doesn't want to do something like a Jan 8th launch. Plus January for a March release is too short of a timeframe.

Just going to have to suck it up.

It is?

Outside of a 2 minute reveal teaser with no confirmed software, we literally knew nothing about switch until January 11. And it launched 7 weeks later on March 3.

If Switch only needs 7 weeks from full unveiling to market, why does it’s successor need more than that?

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

I guess a reveal is more believable than a release.
Just to keep expectations in check.

If the system isn’t coming til early 2025 there is zero
reason to show it at all until end of the year. Since when do we need 9-10 months to chew on something before we decide if we want it? And Nintendo doesn’t want Switch sales to suffer in it’s last holiday on the market without a successor to compete with it.

The “Most *Nintendo” way to do this is to put out a short teaser at the end of the year of the new system, and then do a full unveiling in January for a March or April release. Give the Switch one last big holiday to not share the spotlight, and rake in those profits before the low margin successor comes out.

 

[ADiTAR]

If the system isn’t coming til early 2025 there is zero
reason to show it at all until end of the year. Since when do we need 9-10 months to chew on something before we decide if we want it? And Nintendo doesn’t want Switch sales to suffer in it’s last holiday on the market without a successor to compete with it.

The “Most *Nintendo” way to do this is to put out a short teaser at the end of the year of the new system, and then do a full unveiling in January for a March or April release. Give the Switch one last big holiday to not share the spotlight, and rake in those profits before the low margin successor comes out.

They may reveal it at the TGAs or announce a reveal date in Jan, and cut the price of switch for the holidays.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

They may reveal it at the TGAs or announce a reveal date in Jan, and cut the price of switch for the holidays.

Why now? They’ve made it 7 years without a single price cut. Might as well finish out the generation without one. Sales are remarkably stable for such a mature system.

I think the older high-margin software could go into Player’s Choice or Nintendo Selects and be discounted this year. All of those games have made so much damn money it’s just ridiculous.

 

[kruis]

The question for the competition is can you beat Nintendo on portability, power, and price? Two of the three? Even three of the three? It comes down to how much of a profit Nintendo decides to sell the Switch 2 for vs another manufacturer who might subsidize hardware rather than profit on it.

You're leaving out the software part in that equation. Nintendo can get away with weak hardware, because their software is so strong and they target a customer base that doesn't care about graphics, namely parents with children. Even if Sony and Microsoft came out with portable devices that could play lowres PS4/5 and Xbox games, Nintendo would still make a killing because their two main competitors have nothing that can compete with Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong and all those other perennial Nintendo staples. Sony has done a few half-hearted efforts to broaden their user base with games like Destruction Allstars and Sackboy: A Big Adventure but both games were sales failure. The only thing that has the potential to compete would be a full-fledget Astrobot game, but Sony would need many more high quality games for all ages (but primarily kids) before parents would take notice.

 

[Deerock71]

I'd imagine that could mean a significant price cut ($100?) to the Switch, to clear out stocks over Christmas.

Plenty of people still out there who would buy a cheap Switch even knowing a new, but probably more expensive model was coming soon in the new year.

I'd buy another OLED as a backup.

 

[Ozriel]

It's not going to be Steam Deck in power. Anyone expecting that is setting themselves up for disappointment and doesn't understand Nintendo. They're the richest company in Japan with zero debt because they don't take losses on hardware. Ever. They wait until the components they want to use can be sold cheaply without taking a loss and release the consoles at $299. The OLED Switch was $50 more because of the screen. The Deluxe Wii U was $50 more because it had additional internal storage. They've never launched a console for more than that.

It’s going to be more powerful than the Steamdeck, though.

And the whole story of the Deck losing money at $400 is a myth. Dunno why people keep repeating that shit

 

[Woopah]

There is still price elasticity related to products for families and children. The more expensive it is, the less likely you'll buy multiple ones for families with multiple kids.

They already have to convince people to upgrade a switch to a switch 2 just to play Mario Kart 9. That's always been a pretty tall order for them.

Agreed, but I think at launch Nintendo will mostly be targeting early adopters at launch. To reach multiple consoles per family they can release a budget "Lite" version a couple of years down the line, just like they did with the original Switch.

The speed in which gaming changes and the speed in which competition can catch up to you.

Gaming is bigger than ever before and although the Switch has been a massive success, it's also merged Nintendo's console and handheld brands together.

Inherently, that's A LOT of risk. So slowing down Switch sales AND giving your competitors time to catch up to you, maybe isn't the wisest move.

Both PS5 and Xbox Series were talked about around a year before launch, and we saw their first games several months in advance. If Switch 2 is coming Feb or March 2025, then January is too late for a reveal. And I don't think they'd want to have a big reveal event during the holiday season itself

I therefore expect them to tell investors about the new platform before the next fiscal briefing in May 2024, and to have a reveal event sometime between June and September 2024. Both Nintendo and third parties will want several months to market their Switch 2 games.

I've contended for a while now that a handheld PS5 (downscaled similar to the Switch and Series S) would take a big chunk out of the Switch 2s sales, particularly in Japan.

The way the internet, social media, and communications... I would expect the Switch sales to really dry up for the remainder of the year, which could in turn make the PS5 userbase grow faster (especially with no Switch 2 taking up sales for the rest of the year). A larger user base for the PS5 as a console, greatly helps the sales potential of a handheld PS5.

If Switch sells 150 million units and Switch 2 sells 100 million units, I'm not sure that the combined handheld/console strategy will have been considered a success the second time around.

I do agree that it gives an advantage to PS5, and it would be preferable if Nintendo could announce and release Switch 2 in the same calendar year. But if they can't do that and the successor is coming Q1 2025, they still need to announce the platform this calendar year.

For the Japan part, Sony's issue there is software, not hardware (PS5 hardware is selling noticeably faster than PS4 in Japan, while PS5 software is selling noticeably slower). A handheld PS5 would only take a big chunk of Switch 2's sales if it is accompanied by a noticeable increase in software strength.

If Switch sells 150 million units and Switch 2 sells 100 million units, I'm not sure that the combined handheld/console strategy will have been considered a success the second time around.

With the way game development time and budgets are increasing, I'm not sure what the alternative for Nintendo is. Dividing their resources between a handheld ecosystem and a console ecosystem will result in at least one of those platforms having pretty poor support (as what happened to the Wii U and to a lesser extent the 3DS).

It would completely crater the sales of a product that is still selling strong, particularly for the holidays. Seems far fetched.

The DS was still going strong when Nintendo first talked about the 3DS in Feb 2010. Likewise the PS4 was still going strong in October 2019 when Sony started giving more details on the PS5.

So I wouldn't say it was far fetched at all. Usually we get the first details on a new console about a year before launch. And in any case, if the new platform is coming in the next fiscal year, Nintendo has a duty to tell their investors about that. They can't wait until after the holidays.

 

[IDKFA]

If the system isn’t coming til early 2025 there is zero
reason to show it at all until end of the year. Since when do we need 9-10 months to chew on something before we decide if we want it? And Nintendo doesn’t want Switch sales to suffer in it’s last holiday on the market without a successor to compete with it.

The “Most *Nintendo” way to do this is to put out a short teaser at the end of the year of the new system, and then do a full unveiling in January for a March or April release. Give the Switch one last big holiday to not share the spotlight, and rake in those profits before the low margin successor comes out.

Probably the most sensible post I've read in this thread.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Agreed, but I think at launch Nintendo will mostly be targeting early adopters at launch. To reach multiple consoles per family they can release a budget "Lite" version a couple of years down the line, just like they did with the original Switch.

Both attracting early adopters and families will be more difficult with the Switch 2 positioned to compete against the PS5.

If the PS5 drops to 400 dollars by the time the Switch 2 launches (2025) and maybe the PS5 DE is 350 dollars and the Switch 2 is 400 this is a real difference from when the Switch was 300 dollars and the PS4 was 300 dollars and the ps5 was subsequently 500 dollars.

Matters will be even worse if Sony puts out a portable PS5 (720p or 1080p) for 450-500 by the end of the year next year.

I just think you're in a very different dynamic when it comes to price and competition.

All of that isn't even to say that the Switch 2 is going "fail" but if Sony does put out a competitive alternative, I think it'll really struggle to hit similar sales numbers, which will drastically impact their software sales.

Both PS5 and Xbox Series were talked about around a year before launch, and we saw their first games several months in advance. If Switch 2 is coming Feb or March 2025, then January is too late for a reveal. And I don't think they'd want to have a big reveal event during the holiday season itself

I therefore expect them to tell investors about the new platform before the next fiscal briefing in May 2024, and to have a reveal event sometime between June and September 2024. Both Nintendo and third parties will want several months to market their Switch 2 games.

Both systems were in more serious decline sales wise than Switch is right now.

I do agree that it gives an advantage to PS5, and it would be preferable if Nintendo could announce and release Switch 2 in the same calendar year. But if they can't do that and the successor is coming Q1 2025, they still need to announce the platform this calendar year.

For the Japan part, Sony's issue there is software, not hardware (PS5 hardware is selling noticeably faster than PS4 in Japan, while PS5 software is selling noticeably slower). A handheld PS5 would only take a big chunk of Switch 2's sales if it is accompanied by a noticeable increase in software strength.

A lot of the software between Switch and PS5 are the same. The biggest difference is the hardware sales because people prefer to be able to game on the go or at least not on the TV.

A handheld PS5 would garner Sony even more software support in Japan.

With the way game development time and budgets are increasing, I'm not sure what the alternative for Nintendo is. Dividing their resources between a handheld ecosystem and a console ecosystem will result in at least one of those platforms having pretty poor support (as what happened to the Wii U and to a lesser extent the 3DS).


The DS was still going strong when Nintendo first talked about the 3DS in Feb 2010. Likewise the PS4 was still going strong in October 2019 when Sony started giving more details on the PS5.

So I wouldn't say it was far fetched at all. Usually we get the first details on a new console about a year before launch. And in any case, if the new platform is coming in the next fiscal year, Nintendo has a duty to tell their investors about that. They can't wait until after the holidays.

I think Nintendo should launch 3 systems. Switch 2, Switch 2 Lite, and Switch 2 Pro. Or simply focus on Switch 2 Lite and Switch 2 Pro. Can still be the same games, but Nintendo is going to need to open itself up to more 3rd party support in line with the PS5 and XBS.

 

[Woopah]

Both attracting early adopters and families will be more difficult with the Switch 2 positioned to compete against the PS5.

If the PS5 drops to 400 dollars by the time the Switch 2 launches (2025) and maybe the PS5 DE is 350 dollars and the Switch 2 is 400 this is a real difference from when the Switch was 300 dollars and the PS4 was 300 dollars and the ps5 was subsequently 500 dollars.

Matters will be even worse if Sony puts out a portable PS5 (720p or 1080p) for 450-500 by the end of the year next year.

I just think you're in a very different dynamic when it comes to price and competition.

Agree with all of this, but I don't think it will change the fact that Nintendo will want to market Switch 2 and its games for several months before it comes out.

Both systems were in more serious decline sales wise than Switch is right now.

Which means that Switch could have a better last year than either the PS4 or Xbox One did, even with the Switch 2 getting a similar announcement to release timing to what PS5 and Xbox Series got.

A lot of the software between Switch and PS5 are the same. The biggest difference is the hardware sales because people prefer to be able to game on the go or at least not on the TV.

Lots of people in Japan like to game on the go, but lots like to game on the TV as well.

There is an overlap between PS5 and Switch, but most of the games that are driving Switch's high hardware sales in the country are not part of that overlap.

In 2023, none of the top 10 Switch games in Japan (at least by physical sales) were available on PlayStation. In 2022 and 2021, only 1 of the top 10 Switch games were on PlayStation (it was Minecraft both times).

A handheld PS5 would garner Sony even more software support in Japan.

What major games in Japan would you expect a handheld PS5 to get that the console PS5 is not getting?

I think Nintendo should launch 3 systems. Switch 2, Switch 2 Lite, and Switch 2 Pro. Or simply focus on Switch 2 Lite and Switch 2 Pro. Can still be the same games, but Nintendo is going to need to open itself up to more 3rd party support in line with the PS5 and XBS.

Most Switch owners used the console as a hybrid, so I think its important that the hybrid comes first. But I can certainly see the wisdom in launching a handheld only version and a Pro version later down the line.

I definitely expect them to get better third party support at the launch of Switch 2 than they got at the launch of Switch, and continuing to improve their third party support should be a top priority for them.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

I definitely expect them to get better third party support at the launch of Switch 2 than they got at the launch of Switch, and continuing to improve their third party support should be a top priority for them.

The problem with this (and why I like my new SD OLED) is the fact all ports from existing consoles will be easily priced at $39.99 if not more for something you can find below $10 on other platforms. It’s a tough sell.

 

[RAIDEN1]

Let's see how Switch 2 compares against the new kid in town: SteamDeck

 

[Woopah]

The problem with this (and why I like my new SD OLED) is the fact all ports from existing consoles will be easily priced at $39.99 if not more for something you can find below $10 on other platforms. It’s a tough sell.

There definitely will be ports, but I would expect of lot of same day multiplatform releases on Switch 2 as well.

 

[Robb]

will be easily priced at $39.99

If something like Elden Ring etc. releases on “Switch 2” I’d expect them to go all out with a $70 price tag.

It’s not like Skyrim on Switch released at a lower price despite being a port of a port of a port of a…. It was still $60.

Expect the worst.

 

[IDKFA]

Let's see how Switch 2 compares against the new kid in town: SteamDeck

I have it down to overpowering the SteamDeck by a large margin.

I have no evidence. Just blind faith.

 

[Boss Man]

Can't wait for the glasses free 3d

I bought a 3DS XL last week and it’s awesome. I feel like I really missed out on that generation.

Incremental Switch sounds boring, especially since it looks like the screen won’t be OLED.

I get it from a business perspective though, and in fairness I have disagreed with every single Nintendo console since the Gamecube and then I buy them later and realize I was wrong.

 

[TikiLagoonSam]

Nintendo development teams on a new generation of hardware that ACTUALLY will be a huge bump in visual fidelity will be magic. I CANNOT wait to see what they do.
Versus playstation and xbox that has had cutting edge hardware 10 years ago will make the Switch 2 graphical bump compared to Switch 1 seem even greater.

In regards to the delay, because Switch is such a huge seller, we should still be seeing some quality releases from developers this year including Nintendo that will release purely for guaranteed sales. My hopes for a WIND WAKER release this year have just increased.

 

[UltimaKilo]

The DS was still going strong when Nintendo first talked about the 3DS in Feb 2010. Likewise the PS4 was still going strong in October 2019 when Sony started giving more details on the PS5.

So I wouldn't say it was far fetched at all. Usually we get the first details on a new console about a year before launch. And in any case, if the new platform is coming in the next fiscal year, Nintendo has a duty to tell their investors about that. They can't wait until after the holidays.

The DS was their secondary console, Nintendo now has only one console. Could be a Jan 2025 reveal and spring launch.

Moreover, companies usually don’t tell investors what their pipeline is, that would be crazy.

 

[magnumpy]

I could imagine a June reveal with the console launching ~November-December