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"Another" new well-specced console? We haven't seen one of those in 10 years, and when we look at said "ongoing trends in the market" since then, like the business need to have multiplat games on everything that can run them to net as many sales as possible, it paints a slightly different picture. The industry isn't where it was when it could exclude a platform on a whim like in the PS2 era, so using the GameCube as some metric of how developers and publishers will treat Nintendo in the modern era has to come with a lot of really serious caveats.
You didn't address the point about how many viable consoles are needed to saturate the enthusiast market. First though, I assume, when we talk of "third parties", we're talking the Western, "core" ones that are basically non existent on Wii U. I realise the some Japanese and some casual games (Just dance) etc will be there.
Now that's out of the way, do they really need another console to sell to? How many Nintendo console owners will be ONLY Nintendo console owners and want said third party games? I would hazard a guess is't very, very few. Therefore the market is tiny for additional sales over and above PS4 and XBO.
I'd love to see any numbers anyone has on how many people are Nintendo only households and then how many of those want the big Western third party games.