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[MisterFalcon]

So you are of the opinion that the West has done nothing, zero actions which could be interpreted as aggressive? I'm genuinely curious.

I'm not saying we shouldn't have done them or that I don't agree or would have approved it myself, but I'm also wise to the perception of others. I don't see this type of thinking in here.

If you consider limiting the ability of Russia to invade some of its neighbours on a whim to be agression then, yes, the West has been agressive by allowing small Eastern European states to join NATO.

 

[InverseAgonist]

Anything that would remotely justify what Russia has done in Ukraine? Absolutely not. Baltic states wanted to join NATO because they knew Russia for what it was and is. Russia proved they were prudent to do so by launching an unprovoked genocidal invasion.

You might feel disrespected if I spit on the ground while passing you by on the street, but that doesn't mean that's any sort of justification to pull out a gun and blow my head off. I don't understand the propensity for some to expect the west to search for reasons to self-flagellate because Russia decided to launch an unprovoked genocidal campaign.

Interesting. So, lets think about this. Poland, a NATO member now, is host to the American run AEGIS ashore system which can accommodate nuclear-tipped missiles with a flight time sub-ICBM/SLBM to Moscow and high-value targets. Thus far, there is no mechanism for verification for the Russians that it's purely defensive, although the Americans have talked that they would and I hope we would.

Are you familiar with the American response to the Soviets putting IRBMs with a short flight time in Cuba in 1962? The Americans (rightly) considered this a destabilizing event and started an internationally illegal blockade of the island -- although Kennedy called it a "quarantine". They began preparing an invasion and conducted several preparation overflights of Cuban airspace (illegal) and massed troops for an invasion that was barely averted.

What's your thoughts? Do you see a parallel? Again, it's not from our perspective and you don't have to agree with them, try to read and learn about them and their history and think like they would. Being a thinker doesn't mean you need to morally agree with their actions and God only knows some of the people in here will tar and feather you for that, but it's a good thing to understand your partner, your lover, your friend, your enemy, the thing you hate the most in life.

 

[k1m1d4n]

Ukraine has been attacking Crimea, """"""officially"""""" a Russian territory (according to Russia, that is) for weeks, if not months now, and Russia hasn't really done much. Why would they do more for those newly annexed territories?

While talking with my wife about your response (she's Ukrainian btw) we came to the conclusion that your probably right. Up until now both sides have been bombing the region and only one cares about it's people. Then what is, in your opinion, the reason why they always rush to annex territory. It can't be just to justify the "special operation" to all the propaganda believers.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

Interesting. So, lets think about this. Poland, a NATO member now, is host to the American run AEGIS ashore system which can accommodate nuclear-tipped missiles with a flight time sub-ICBM/SLBM to Moscow and high-value targets. Thus far, there is no mechanism for verification for the Russians that it's purely defensive, although the Americans have talked that they would and I hope we would.

Are you familiar with the American response to the Soviets putting IRBMs with a short flight time in Cuba in 1962? The Americans (rightly) considered this a destabilizing event and started an internationally illegal blockade of the island -- although Kennedy called it a "quarantine". They began preparing an invasion and conducted several preparation overflights of Cuban airspace (illegal) and massed troops for an invasion that was barely averted.

What's your thoughts? Do you see a parallel?

Wait I thought Ukraine was full of nazis that needed to be rooted out to save the ethnic Russians in the country who want to be part of Russia. Why have we moved on to “actually there are weapon systems in Poland and it’s just like the Cuban missile crisis?”

This is silly. There’s literally no justification for committing wanton violence and destruction in Ukraine. And you should note, the Cuban missile crisis was solved through diplomacy. Just as the west tried to avert invasion through diplomacy earlier this year. Putin spat in their faces and did it anyway.

 

[InverseAgonist]

Wait I thought Ukraine was full of nazis that needed to be rooted out to save the ethnic Russians in the country who want to be part of Russia. Why have we moved on to “actually there are weapon systems in Poland and it’s just like the Cuban missile crisis?”

This is silly. There’s literally no justification for committing wanton violence and destruction in Ukraine. And you should note, the Cuban missile crisis was solved through diplomacy. Just as the west tried to avert invasion through diplomacy earlier this year. Putin spat in their faces and did it anyway.

So, now I'm not just a Russian sympathizer, and not just Putin's Instagram or whatever junkie, but I'm parroting Putin's propaganda? This place is insane. You are not responding in good faith, I just explained how you need to communicate clearly (where have I ever mentioned something like that?!) and think through issues from a place of knowledge about the other party and try to understand them to the best of your ability to simulate what they're thinking.

And you give me this shit about Nazi's in Ukraine? GTFO you scummy fuck.


The WHOLE point is that there is a sense of threat to the Americans in the Cuban Missile Crisis by placing IRBMs close, the Russians feel the Americans are doing the same with AEGIS ashore and NMD in Poland and moves to bring Ukraine in. Are they right? No, of course not. But this is where their priors and history and culture are leading them. Become a student of history and understanding.

The WHOLE point of what I'm saying is that just as the Cuban missile crisis was solved diplomatically, this needs to be solved diplomatically. Fuck, it should have been taken care of years ago. The 2008 Georgia-Russia war anyone? The Breaking of the Budapest Memorandum, fuck the signing of that? Don't get me started.

If you knew me, you'd realize how dumb these comments about being a Russian sympathizer are. I was a cold war kid who hated the Soviets and studied this because of my hatred. But I'm not the type of person who doesn't think and just goes with the masses demanding unending war once we can reasonably end something at the same place it started in. It's the MINIMAX strategy in game theory. There are too many variables in this, it's too complex a mess and the West for geopolitical advantage is exogenously pumping the conflict with fuel. Something will go horribly wrong if it continues, between the immediate death and raping and murder and what's happening in the 3rd world with food and Europe with energy. The Korean war was noble, but they knew when to call it quits (having lost everything, taken everything and then back to the starting lines) and peace out too. That's what leaders need to be.

Instead you use terms like "spat in their faces" -- I'm sure that's what they're discussing in Kiev and State right now.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

What did he expect? Putler needs more meat for the grinder. It does not matter if this is pretty much a racial cleansing in Ruzzia.

 

[MisterFalcon]

Interesting. So, lets think about this. Poland, a NATO member now, is host to the American run AEGIS ashore system which can accommodate nuclear-tipped missiles with a flight time sub-ICBM/SLBM to Moscow and high-value targets.

Who made this up? Aegis missiles are not nuclear.

 

[Nikodemos]

Who made this up? Aegis missiles are not nuclear.

It's some regurgitated Putinist bullshit. The US has repeatedly invited the Russians to inspect the facilities in Poland and Romania. Of course the Russians didn't show up, because they aren't fucking retarded, they know the emplacements are used only for interceptors.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[Brazen]

There are too many variables in this, it's too complex a mess and the West for geopolitical advantage is exogenously pumping the conflict with fuel.

There is only one variable. Russia pulls out of Ukraine and the war is over.

Your Russian argument of "Look at what you made us (putin/russians) do!!" is fooling no one.

 

[InverseAgonist]

Who made this up? Aegis missiles are not nuclear.

Reading comprehension combined with talking about what you know goes a long way.

The AEGIS system used the Mk41 VLS, does it not? Can a Mk41 accommodate a Tomahawk TLAM cruise missile? Can you equip a BGM-109G in an Mk41?

You answered your own question and that's the Russian problem. Now, since people here are fucking insane, I would never believe for a second the US will secretly move the G-variant from storage to Poland, but that's not how strategic balance works when your the nuclear power at the receiving end.

 

[InverseAgonist]

It's some regurgitated Putinist bullshit. The US has repeatedly invited the Russians to inspect the facilities in Poland and Romania. Of course the Russians didn't show up, because they aren't fucking retarded, they know the emplacements are used only for interceptors.

That's right, just "regurgitated Putinist bullshit". That's why people like the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace are writing papers on how to ensure transparency and steps the the US can actively persue to allow the Russians security and access last year.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/...egime-for-european-missile-defenses-pub-85960​

Just Putinist fantasy that serious thinkers in Defense and IR in the West take seriously for some reason. It's almost like maybe nuclear transparency and access and verification is something that need to happen, improve and be worked at by both sides?!

Nope, just Putinist bullshit. I heard it on the Twitterz.

 

[MisterFalcon]

edit: I was wrong, the Mk 41 VLS is indeed part of the Aegis land based BMD.
So here the threat is that in this extremely well known location, quite far from the border and right next to all the air defense systems of Kaliningrad the Americans will sneak in some Tomahawks to launch in a suprise strike. Instead of launching from B2 bombers or subs.

And we seem top have suddenly switched from 'nuclear-tipped missiles with a flight time sub-ICBM/SLBM to Moscow' to a slow ass Tomahawk. What is this amazing hypothetical weapon exactly?
Redzikowo to Moscow is 1300 kilometers, 1,5 hours for a Tomahawk in a straight line right over Kaliningrad. ICBMs are way faster.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

So, now I'm not just a Russian sympathizer, and not just Putin's Instagram or whatever junkie, but I'm parroting Putin's propaganda? This place is insane. You are not responding in good faith, I just explained how you need to communicate clearly (where have I ever mentioned something like that?!) and think through issues from a place of knowledge about the other party and try to understand them to the best of your ability to simulate what they're thinking.

And you give me this shit about Nazi's in Ukraine? GTFO you scummy fuck.


The WHOLE point is that there is a sense of threat to the Americans in the Cuban Missile Crisis by placing IRBMs close, the Russians feel the Americans are doing the same with AEGIS ashore and NMD in Poland and moves to bring Ukraine in. Are they right? No, of course not. But this is where their priors and history and culture are leading them. Become a student of history and understanding.

The WHOLE point of what I'm saying is that just as the Cuban missile crisis was solved diplomatically, this needs to be solved diplomatically. Fuck, it should have been taken care of years ago. The 2008 Georgia-Russia war anyone? The Breaking of the Budapest Memorandum, fuck the signing of that? Don't get me started.

If you knew me, you'd realize how dumb these comments about being a Russian sympathizer are. I was a cold war kid who hated the Soviets and studied this because of my hatred. But I'm not the type of person who doesn't think and just goes with the masses demanding unending war once we can reasonably end something at the same place it started in. It's the MINIMAX strategy in game theory. There are too many variables in this, it's too complex a mess and the West for geopolitical advantage is exogenously pumping the conflict with fuel. Something will go horribly wrong if it continues, between the immediate death and raping and murder and what's happening in the 3rd world with food and Europe with energy. The Korean war was noble, but they knew when to call it quits (having lost everything, taken everything and then back to the starting lines) and peace out too. That's what leaders need to be.

Instead you use terms like "spat in their faces" -- I'm sure that's what they're discussing in Kiev and State right now.

For the record, I don't think I said anything about you personally or labeled you anything such as "sympathizer." The reason I keep hand waving the comparison is because the justifications for the invasion are always whatever the Kremlin's flavor of the week is. Bringing those up as a "but wait a minute here..." is what I'd consider to be a bad faith argument. And this is all ignoring the fact they already annexed Crimea 8 years ago, was that also to counter...uhh the AEGIS system in Poland? Jesus man.

If you could possibly connect the dots between how kidnapping Ukrainian children and assimilating them into Russian families addresses the supposed threat of an AEGIS system in Poland, by all means continue. But at face value that proposition seems so absurd that I'm just handwaving it alongside the "denazify" bullshit they've been spouting. I'm lumping those things together because the Kremlin changes its story every five minutes.

And "spat in their faces" is accurate. Putin acted like a petulant child on a set course he was unwilling to deviate from, all while lying about it all the way up until he invaded, and even now when he continues to call it a "special military operation."

It's genocide. Speak plainly, as he exhorts.

The lies upon lies upon lies have only continued since. So why should we even entertain what the Russians are blubbering about for an explanation? Just pay attention to what they're doing: raping, mutilating, and murdering. No, I'm not going to listen to "well her skirt was too short so she had it coming" nonsense when it comes to understanding why a rapist rapes.

This is the 21st century. Wars of conquest and genocide, which is what this is, are inexcusable. Period. If Russia had legitimate grievances, they completely forfeited any moral high ground and expectation of redress.

 

[Artoris]

There are morons that beleive the earth is flat, the earth is 6000yrs old and that Russia is a mighty country, i really wouldnt worry about them, let them shout nonsense at each other on Facebook

The very worst thing about morons is that they have power if they band together

 

[InverseAgonist]

The Mk41 VLS is on boats. Aegis BMD is on land.

And we seem top have suddenly switched from 'nuclear-tipped missiles with a flight time sub-ICBM/SLBM to Moscow' to a slow ass Tomahawk. What is this amazing hypothetical weapon exactly?

They use Mk41 in AEGIS ashore as well my friend.

Pro-tip, calculate the flight-time of a BGM-109G to high-value Russian targets and add in the low-trajectory of a TLAM as opposed to an ICBM or SLBM which will be picked up by high-orbit Russian EWS satellites and you've solved this riddle. This is why the Pershing II and Tomahawk deployment in the 80s was so controversial and ultimately withdrawn, why the Jupiter missiles in Turkey were destabilizing, why the Cuban situation was destabilizing. You don't upset the balance of the nuclear game.

 

[Nikodemos]

Just Putinist fantasy that serious thinkers in Defense and IR in the West take seriously for some reason. It's almost like maybe nuclear transparency and access and verification is something that need to happen, improve and be worked at by both sides?!

The same 'thinkers' who routinely Westsplain and talk over the concerns of Eastern European analysts and theoreticians?

Fuck them. A bunch of useless hacks running a decades' long grift for various gibs. A small mercy that, with the advent of the online age, trees are no longer killed to fuel the drivel factories of said establisments.

 

[Facism]

For the lads, Atesh is Turkish for Fire.

Hopefully they set many.

 

[InverseAgonist]

It's genocide. Speak plainly, as he exhorts.

The lies upon lies upon lies have only continued since. So why should we even entertain what the Russians are blubbering about for an explanation? Just pay attention to what they're doing: raping, mutilating, and murdering. No, I'm not going to listen to "well her skirt was too short so she had it coming" nonsense when it comes to understanding why a rapist rapes.

This is the 21st century. Wars of conquest and genocide, which is what this is, are inexcusable. Period. If Russia had legitimate grievances, they completely forfeited any moral high ground and expectation of redress.

I'm interested in this because we can agree. It is genocide and warcrimes are going on. What's happening is horrible and unthinkable and I'm appalled. If I could wave a hand and torture Putin for centuries I would.

Where we diverge is that I don't see your end-game. I don't see how the West exogenously pumping fuel on this fire beyond the current stalemate and lull in strategic advance helps. I see it as a net negative in everyway imaginable. More death, more suffering, Europe freezing, the 3rd world starving. And mark my words, we're rolling the dice every day this goes on and the Nordstream event was nothing compared to what could happen. An assassination, a NATO staging area or resupply ship or railroad train with men attacked. And then we have a conundrum. Many here might actually welcome that, I abhor the idea and what could follow. Putin is nearing the tipping point (if definitely not already) that I wrote about with Hitler from (ir)rational actor to totally paranoid insane fuck. That's dangerous, especially as they've recently amended their nuclear policies.

And what will be gained from more fighting? Do you really believe you're going to liberate Crimea militarily? Luhansk? The whole Donetsk basin? What's the end goal? Nobody articulates it. Will they march to the borders that existed in 1994 at the Bucharest summit with Yeltsin and stop and the Russians just go home and quit? What of the separatists? Will they go quietly into the night? I honestly don't know. I don't think you do either, nor would I wager many who talk so much in here have.

I do know we can do these things using diplomacy and IR, but first we need to turn off the hot war.

But the folks around here sure can talk up continuing a war indefinitely that most have no skin in directly.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

I'm interested in this because we can agree. It is genocide and warcrimes are going on. What's happening is horrible and unthinkable and I'm appalled. If I could wave a hand and torture Putin for centuries I would.

Where we diverge is that I don't see your end-game. I don't see how the West exogenously pumping fuel on this fire beyond the current stalemate and lull in strategic advance helps.

Wait, what? The Ukrainian counter offensive, fueled by the supply of western arms and training, has been very effective. In any conflict there will be some ebbs and flows but I don’t think stalemate is an accurate description.

I see it as a net negative in everyway imaginable. More death, more suffering, Europe freezing, the 3rd world starving. And mark my words, we're rolling the dice every day this goes on and the Nordstream event was nothing compared to what could happen. An assassination, a NATO staging area or resupply ship or railroad train with men attacked. And then we have a conundrum. Many here might actually welcome that, I abhor the idea and what could follow. Putin is nearing the tipping point (if definitely not already) that I wrote about with Hitler from (ir)rational actor to totally paranoid insane fuck. That's dangerous, especially as they've recently amended their nuclear policies.

What’s dangerous is setting a precedent that this type of aggression can be allowed to continue without consequence. Yes, we’re all going to pay more to heat our houses and feed our families. No, the answer isn’t to just bend over and let genocide commence because we’re complete pussies. All I’m being asked to do is pay more, not crawl through mud to defend Europe as the Ukrainians are doing for us.

And what will be gained from more fighting?

Sovereignty? The right to determine one’s own future? Saving the rest of Ukraine from the rape and torture that has already been unleashed in the East? Do you understand what has happened on the territories that Russia has already occupied? Do you think it’ll be any different elsewhere if Ukraine surrenders? They’re literally fighting for their and their families’ lives. If I had to decide to surrender and watch my wife and children be raped in front of me, as the Russians have done to countless Ukrainian families, or fight until every last drop of blood falls from me, I know what I would choose. And if the Ukrainians want to keep choosing to fight as I would, I’m willing to keep sending them ammo.

Anyway, good luck in the campaign to try to nuance this into something other than good vs. evil, because we’re actually seeing a case of just that. Russia won’t back down until we beat their faces into a bloody pulp. Start thinking that way and you’ll understand why some of us want to do that

 

[nemiroff]

I'm continually the only one in discussion with me

Well.. Either way, enough is enough, you are shitting up this thread for no good reason. I'm not a mod, but I feel I should remind you the very obvious fact that we're on a site where politics are generally banned, and you should rather look at this thread as a Ukraine news and support thread more than a debate thread, period. There's no amount of "argument balance" that can make up for the shit and suffering that ruzzia are/has caused in Ukraine. So please take it or leave it.

 

[GladiusFrog]

 

[Hawking Radiation]

And why is more not being done to deter Russia from further aggression?

Why allow them back in the UN security council?

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[Kenneth Haight]

And why is more not being done to deter Russia from further aggression?

Why allow them back in the UN security council?

They’re a permanent member of the UN Security Council…..unfortunately.

 

[InverseAgonist]

Well.. Either way, enough is enough, you are shitting up this thread for no good reason. I'm not a mod, but I feel I should remind you the very obvious fact that we're on a site where politics are generally banned, and you should rather look at this thread as a Ukraine news and support thread more than a debate thread, period. There's no amount of "argument balance" that can make up for the shit and suffering that ruzzia are/has caused in Ukraine. So please take it or leave it.

I think you really hit the nail-on-the-head.

I would recommend this thread be renamed the "Ukrainian Emotional Support Thread" as it more concisely describes what you and others desire in this thread. Unfortunately, I saw "Russia begins invasion of Ukraine" and assumed, like most of this wonderful forum, you were entitled to a rational and informed opinion on the entitled topic as long as you support it with sources and knowledge. I was wrong.

This really is a close-minded, one-emotive-hivemind-opinion-only thread that is basically cheerleading an undefined outcome that nobody can articulate, everyone avoids, but includes a lot of boisterous support for the continued death of people they don't know, on both sides, who were drawn into this by powers that be which are much larger than them.

In many ways it is fitting for a gaming board as that's exactly what this is. A game that is being played, where you push for your sides 'ultimate' victory at whatever cost (not your actual life, so whatever!) while sharing with giddied excitement and watching TikTok clips of death and destruction of your enemies. That's fascinating, actually! Huh.

 

[nemiroff]

I think you really hit the nail-on-the-head.

I would recommend this thread be renamed the "Ukrainian Emotional Support Thread" as it more concisely describes what you and others desire in this thread. Unfortunately, I saw "Russia begins invasion of Ukraine" and assumed, like most of this wonderful forum, you were entitled to a rational and informed opinion on the entitled topic as long as you support it with sources and knowledge. I was wrong.

This really is a close-minded, one-emotive-hivemind-opinion-only thread that is basically cheerleading an undefined outcome that nobody can articulate, everyone avoids, but includes a lot of boisterous support for the continued death of people they don't know, on both sides, who were drawn into this by powers that be which are much larger than them.

In many ways it is fitting for a gaming board as that's exactly what this is. A game that is being played, where you push for your sides 'ultimate' victory at whatever cost (not your actual life, so whatever!) while sharing with giddied excitement and watching TikTok clips of death and destruction of your enemies. That's fascinating, actually! Huh.

J.C.. Instead of just leaving in peace you continue act beyond pathetic. You, your high horse and your putinist meltdown was predictable as fuck.

Edit: Don't bother to reply, you've said more than enough already, and besides you're already in my ignore list.

 

[Brazen]

cheerleading an undefined outcome that nobody can articulate

What the fuck do you think freedom is if not what you just described here? That is what Ukraine is fighting for and what this war is all about. You should stop assuming where our hearts and minds are just because your unable to. We already know what happens if the Russians win here, more genocide, more deception, more tyranny, and more war.

You can flail around all you want. Russia is going to learn from its mistakes not it's victories, and your damn right we'll continue to cheer for their defeat/retreat.

 

[Lasha]

Playing that card is dangerous though, since gives China technically the right to attack and take Taiwan, since apparently the war never ended.

Self determination is the right for people in a given territory to decide where to stay, be alone as a new state or just get absorbed by an already existing one,never heard it being limited to people without a nation.

What "card" are you referring to? That is literally the current state of affairs wrt Taiwan. China can attack to end the war. It doesn't for fear of the damage to it's economy and cities.

Self determination applies to all people in a territory not just minority ethnic groups. What Russians support is a twisted mockery of the concept. Abkhazia suddenly wanted to be separate after ethnically cleansing all of the Georgians. Karabagh was 100% Armenian and an oppressed people looking for self determination after all of the Azeris were run out. Crimean self determination didn't give two shits about the Ukrainians or Tartars living there. Your interpretation of self interpretation is a redressing of expansionism.

 

[TwinB242]

Really not looking forward to Putin's speech tomorrow. Guy has become increasingly unhinged and will probably drop in some more nuclear threats towards Ukraine and the west because thats the last card he can play at this point.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Really not looking forward to Putin's speech tomorrow. Guy has become increasingly unhinged and will probably drop in some more nuclear threats towards Ukraine and the west because thats the last card he can play at this point.

Doesnt look like Russia is taking Ukraine over, so at some point Putin will hit his threshold.

Either he sends the nukes, or he calls it quits and the world knows he failed.

Considering how stubborn he is, I dont see him doing #2.

 

[akimbo009]

I think you really hit the nail-on-the-head.

I would recommend this thread be renamed the "Ukrainian Emotional Support Thread" as it more concisely describes what you and others desire in this thread. Unfortunately, I saw "Russia begins invasion of Ukraine" and assumed, like most of this wonderful forum, you were entitled to a rational and informed opinion on the entitled topic as long as you support it with sources and knowledge. I was wrong.

This really is a close-minded, one-emotive-hivemind-opinion-only thread that is basically cheerleading an undefined outcome that nobody can articulate, everyone avoids, but includes a lot of boisterous support for the continued death of people they don't know, on both sides, who were drawn into this by powers that be which are much larger than them.

In many ways it is fitting for a gaming board as that's exactly what this is. A game that is being played, where you push for your sides 'ultimate' victory at whatever cost (not your actual life, so whatever!) while sharing with giddied excitement and watching TikTok clips of death and destruction of your enemies. That's fascinating, actually! Huh.

Just stop

 

[TwinB242]

Im doing some research and Im finding it mind boggling how Putin is somehow annexing regions with significant portions that he doesn't control yet.

For example Zaphorizia city alone had a pre-war population of just over 700K.

The entire oblast had a population of 1.6 million.

When you take the other towns in UA controlled territory I think its fair to say that around half of the entire oblast is under Ukranian control.

....So Putin is basically annexing half of it using votes from only half of the population. Even in an alternate reality where the referendum votes were somehow legitimate, half of the population is being excluded. How exactly is that supposed to work? Is he going to try and redraw lines on a map and conclude that the other portion of Zaphorizia doesn't exist and his is the only legitimate one?

Im no geopolitics expert but this all just reeks of complete desperation.

 

[Kenpachii]

Im doing some research and Im finding it mind boggling how Putin is somehow annexing regions with significant portions that he doesn't control yet.

For example Zaphorizia city alone had a pre-war population of just over 700K.

The entire oblast had a population of 1.6 million.

When you take the other towns in UA controlled territory I think its fair to say that around half of the entire oblast is under Ukranian control.

....So Putin is basically annexing half of it using votes from only half of the population. Even in an alternate reality where the referendum votes were somehow legitimate, half of the population is being excluded. How exactly is that supposed to work? Is he going to try and redraw lines on a map and conclude that the other portion of Zaphorizia doesn't exist and his is the only legitimate one?

Im no geopolitics expert but this all just reeks of complete desperation.

I doubt they see Ukrainians as human, so yea they don't exist.

 

[Lasha]

Im doing some research and Im finding it mind boggling how Putin is somehow annexing regions with significant portions that he doesn't control yet.

For example Zaphorizia city alone had a pre-war population of just over 700K.

The entire oblast had a population of 1.6 million.

When you take the other towns in UA controlled territory I think its fair to say that around half of the entire oblast is under Ukranian control.

....So Putin is basically annexing half of it using votes from only half of the population. Even in an alternate reality where the referendum votes were somehow legitimate, half of the population is being excluded. How exactly is that supposed to work? Is he going to try and redraw lines on a map and conclude that the other portion of Zaphorizia doesn't exist and his is the only legitimate one?

Im no geopolitics expert but this all just reeks of complete desperation.

He's annexing all of it with half the population. Annexation includes all territory claimed by the self declared republics.

 

[funkygunther]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/30/putin-signs-independence-decrees-for-zaporzhia-kherson

“I order the recognition of the state sovereignty and independence” of Zaporizhia and Kherson in southern Ukraine, Putin said in presidential decrees issued late on Thursday.

The old independence routine as he tells his people back home they're actually part of Russia and that his job is done.

 

[Tams]

But you're assuming that diplomacy in this case would work, when it couldn't

Putin is under his impression that he's negotiating from strength, so he can set out the best terms for himself to the weaker party. Ukraine won't accept that, and shouldn't, therfore not taking his demands, not requests, seriously. Why negotiate with a tyrant?

And why should I remove emotive thinking? I can very easily point out a very famous wartime leader from my country, who used very emotive speeches and emotional pleas to the country and its allies. Emotions, as also shown by Ukriane in its daily briefings and social media posts calling out friends and foes, works amazingly, when done properly. Hell, even Hitler used emotion amazingly well to his advantage leading up to WW2. I'd say emotion and war go hand in hand



I don't understand this? The world has what, 6 or 7 nuclear states, probably a few other ones that haven't stated that they have knowledge or working weapons, but none of the Nato states that have joined recently have that capability

Russia invading another country because of a perceived new nuclear threat is ridiculous, when if USA wanted, they could have destroyed them realistically any time after WW2, or the handful of other nuclear states

In fact Ukraine got rid of its nuclear arsenal to please Russia and Nato, so Russia using it as an excuse is baffling?

If we're talking about historical territory, why not go further? I assume that you're OK with Italy invading Europe if they wanted to reclaim the Roman empire, fair game. Or maybe the Mongals taking back its claims on half of Europe and Russia?

I, and others may be thinking emotionally yes, I'm sure we would all agree with that, but you're not thinking emotionally enough, when war in its true form is when 2 or more countries, cultures, peoples, clans, factions, whatever...hate each other enough to attack each other. Diplomacy should come before war, before emotion gets as far as hatred. After war has started its not diplomacy, its forcing the loser to terms that are set out by the victor(s)

War is the failure of diplomacy.

It's folly to try something that hasn't worked. Sure, attempts can be made, but really, once a war has started it needs to be fought out to a significant extent. The longer it goes on, the more grievances everyone involved gets but that can't be helped.

 

[TwinB242]

He's annexing all of it with half the population. Annexation includes all territory claimed by the self declared republics.

But he's clearly trying to sell the narrative that he's annexing the entirety of the regions, and not just what Russia currently occupies. Obviously declaring half of Zaporizhia as part of Russia doesn't quite roll off the tongue, but I doubt this kind of half measure is going to redeem him politically after the Kharkiv failure.

It also blows a huge hole in the whole 'we had to invade because of NATO' excuse that he's been shoving down the throat of Russians everywhere. He's basically confirming that his real intention for the invasion was to take more Ukrainian land. Are Russians really going to be ok with the fact that 50,000+ of their Sons, fathers, brothers, etc died because Putin wanted to extend Russia's borders by a miniscule amount of territory? And thousands more will follow as they continue to try and defend it? I don't even think the average Russian citizen gives a shit about Zaphorizhia or Kherson. At least with Crimea Russians did historically have a degree of attachment to it, but I've never heard of any of them fondly talking about Zaphorizhia and Kherson and how they want them to be apart of the motherland...

I really don't see any scenario where Putin manages to survive this shitshow of an invasion politically within Russia even after the annexations.

 

[MisterFalcon]

\
Pro-tip, calculate the flight-time of a BGM-109G to high-value Russian targets and add in the low-trajectory of a TLAM as opposed to an ICBM or SLBM which will be picked up by high-orbit Russian EWS satellites and you've solved this riddle. This is why the Pershing II and Tomahawk deployment in the 80s was so controversial and ultimately withdrawn, why the Jupiter missiles in Turkey were destabilizing, why the Cuban situation was destabilizing. You don't upset the balance of the nuclear game.

Nope, still makes no sense to base your suprise decapitation strike missile next to a city with 90,000 people and in a place where the shortest route to Moscow takes you over Kaliningrad and all of Belarus before even reaching Russia.

 

[Majukun]

What "card" are you referring to? That is literally the current state of affairs wrt Taiwan. China can attack to end the war. It doesn't for fear of the damage to it's economy and cities.

Self determination applies to all people in a territory not just minority ethnic groups. What Russians support is a twisted mockery of the concept. Abkhazia suddenly wanted to be separate after ethnically cleansing all of the Georgians. Karabagh was 100% Armenian and an oppressed people looking for self determination after all of the Azeris were run out. Crimean self determination didn't give two shits about the Ukrainians or Tartars living there. Your interpretation of self interpretation is a redressing of expansionism.

i never said anything about a "russia version of self determination" though?
only talked about self determination in my post in relation to taiwan and hong kong, snd only to say that while i support the sentiment, it's a double edged sword since a lot nations would risk splintering if that was an universally accepted concept.

don't think i even mentioned russian territories in those posts...

 

[akimbo009]

While some find their time well spent jerking off in this thread...

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

Lyman completely surrounded now. Let them surrender and check the town for war crimes (which there are probably many of) and get the them to snitch on each other on who did it. Then quickly punish the ones responsible right there and then.

 

[Lasha]

i never said anything about a "russia version of self determination" though?
only talked about self determination in my post in relation to taiwan and hong kong, snd only to say that while i support the sentiment, it's a double edged sword since a lot nations would risk splintering if that was an universally accepted concept.

don't think i even mentioned russian territories in those posts...

I was struggling to understand why you think Taiwan and Hong Kong are related to self determination. Hence why I explained the vastly different cultural context. Hong Kong always belonged to China and was returned. Taiwan has never stopped being a nation. It's the 111th year of the ROC by Taiwanese reckoning.

I agree with you though. The Russian definition of self determination would fuck every border where peoples intersect. The bigger country could always eat the smaller by making minorities declare microstates then absorbing them.

 

[Tams]

i never said anything about a "russia version of self determination" though?
only talked about self determination in my post in relation to taiwan and hong kong, snd only to say that while i support the sentiment, it's a double edged sword since a lot nations would risk splintering if that was an universally accepted concept.

don't think i even mentioned russian territories in those posts...

You come across like you're supporting a bunch of brutal cunts (the CCP in this case) though.

A think anyone who wants to be free of them and live in a free and fair society should be allowed to. On their own land, not flee into exile.

And these regimes are always the biggest hypocrites. For example, the PRC claim that because Tibet was a backwards theocracy, that they came and made it better. By attacking them, forcing their young (and therefore open to change) leader to flee, and not giving them a chance. All while the CCP had been doing almost jack shit in WW2, leaving almost all the hard work and loss to the KMT (hardly saints, but they became the basis of Taiwan).

You see it with Russia too. They took Crimea, and sure they built the Kerch Straight bridge, but have they really improved the lives of Crimeans? No, and now they have brought war to the region. Or South Ossetia and Abkhazia. There they expelled ethnic Georgians and the places are utter dumps, especially South Ossetia. Tranistria is a clown show. Kaliningrad is shit for what and where it is too.

 

[Ironbunny]

Run orc run!

 

[Ironbunny]

 

[Gp1]

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

I don’t understand their military strategy, they’re throwing themselves against the defense wall at bahkmut with massive losses, including the Wagner commander for Ukraine and meanwhile their defense line that had 3000 soldiers manning it at Lyman just fell and Ukraine liberated another chunk of Donetsk and gained access to critical cities like Svatove, Lsychank and Sverodonetsk.

 

[Big Baller]

Damn we even got Luke Skywalker helping out.

 

[Ironbunny]