Tal Shiar Agent
Banned
They need that warm water port. Otherwise the Bosphorus could easily be blockaded and their Baltic Sea ports freeze in the winter.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Russia will shoot down alliance jets over Syria if US launches air strikes on Alassad
- Thread starter Kolx
- Start date
- Status
They need that warm water port. Otherwise the Bosphorus could easily be blockaded and their Baltic Sea ports freeze in the winter.
There is no denying that Hezbollah's losses are enormous but it's still the most competent force on the battlefield at the moment. I've seen far too many spray and pray videos in this conflict by the FSA and SAA to be taken nothing more but a joke while Hezbollah conduct them self quite professionally regardless what you think about it. I am well aware about the atrocities they are committing but my point still stands, the most competent force in this war is Hezbollah. When your enemy send hordes of men to die of course you'll reach a stalemate.
I still don't know what you're arguing about? Cause I sure don't have any interest in this conflict except from a military point of view. There are no winners in the this conflict everyone involved have already lost. Syria will never be the same again and the best solution is to split up Syria.
I agree with your last statement. "We, the west" should have acted when the conflict was still in the early days when the moderate/secular opposition had a fighting chance, now it's an undoable clusterfuck with no end in sight...
MisterFalcon
Member
When the Bosphorus is blocked and Russia is in a de facto state of war with NATO that little pier in Syria is not going to make any difference. Russia is not being cornered here by agressors, they are the agressor.
Now I will do something I don't believe in, but for the sake of discussion, isn't Russia cornered? What is the argument against this? (I Believe the forces deployed in Europé was the lowest ever before Crimea right?)
Those troops are probably the inspectors involved in New START or similar treaties (like the regular bilateral flights over nuclear installations). If that counts, then Russia also has troops deployed in the US.
NATO expanded aggressively into Russia's neighbourhood even when the two sides were at 'peace'. Of course they are being cornered.
ah come on... that may backfire once or twice... but the 23rd time's the charm, right?
well yemen is not interesting because the new old-bad guy is not involved. (also it doesn't fit the good guy narrative I guess)
yeah... but as this thread demonstrates once again in all its glory, propaganda works wonderfully. Its kinda bizarre how many people honestly belief to be on the moral high ground/good side in this by supporting the US/allies (in this case). If I remember correctly, only one party in this conflict had a UN mandate, the other one is waging war illegally. You'll never guess which one.
But with all propaganda wars, I'd rather wait another ~10 to 15 years before I start believing anything any side claims. I'm sure it's going to be an interesting read.
actually Russia already prepared a deal for Assad to step down in an orderly fashion in 2012, but "the west" ignored the offer as they believed that their lovely rebels would get rid of Assad anyway.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-in-2012-to-have-syrias-assad-step-aside
Now this is what I'd call the moral low ground...
That is a biased narrative. Poland, the baltic nations, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. all asked on their own to be part of the NATO, they were not included against their will or aggressively on the alliance. They were affraid of Russia, and seeing what happened in Ukraine (or Moldova), they were right to be afraid.
Anyways, this announcement is only part of the negotiation between Russia and the US, is the response to the US leaking that they might attack Assads forces to stop their push in Aleppo. They are not going to start shooting each other anytime soon, both countries are only trying to improve their bargaining position when they return to the table
MisterFalcon
Member
Independent countries choosing to join NATO (without armed Little Green Men on the streets to make sure they decide the right way) <> 'expanding agressively'. It's only agression if you consider all of Eastern Europe your own.
And that map is ancient, most of those bases close to Russia have been closed years ago. The countries asked them to leave and they did. Imagine that !
MisterFalcon
Member
Let's go through this little joke of a map, starting from the top.
There is a base in the middle of the Barents Sea that can only be Bear Island, population 9. Maybe there is a secret base there no one knows about.
Then there are US BASE flags in Norway, the UK, Germany, Spain, Turkey and Italy. These have all been NATO members for decades.
Going by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_military_bases the bases in Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzistan and Uzbekistan are no longer in existence.
South Korea and Japan have US bases and have had them for decades.
In the Philippines the Subic Bay base has been closed since 1991.
In Thailand a Thai airbase allows US planes to refuel with a few hundred support staff stationed there.
Morocco had an airfield designated as a fallback landing site for the Space Shuttle, the other US bases were closed in the early 1960's.
Saudi Arabia has about 300 support troops at a Saudi base. Their role is apparently to hold up 3 giant US flags to scare Russia. Egypt has a similar number.
According to the map there is a US base in Brunei but this is kept very secret. There is a British training camp there.
The flag in Somalia is placed wrong, there is a US base in Djibouti.
I think I was in part presumptuous and triggered by your initial comments, I've had one too many conversations with supporters of said party and the conversation often devolved into propaganda lists of accomplishments and so on. The crimes in Syria upset me deeply on a personal level. Sorry to lump you in.
The Baath party would have never accepted such a deal - even if the Russians had offered it, I sincerely believe that it would have never gone through. The man has an ego that's apparently worth hundreds of thousands of lives and an entire country. I don't discount that the west did not accept in the hopes of displacing him on their terms and conditions.
Citation please.
CyclopsRock
Member
But they wouldn't. Assad called Obama's bluff on chemical weapon usage and got away Scott free.
Its always been about those warm water ports, hasnt it?
Good, last time the SAA was bombed in Deir Ez Zor, by "mistake", ISIS advanced towards the city. What a joke, turning the USAF into Alqaeda's air force in Aleppo.
As for the negotiations, to hell with it. The US has proven to be ineffective at influencing anyone on the ground, last year when there was a ceasefire, the "rebels" took advantage of the gov compliance and retook several towns in south Aleppo. With the least ceasefire "rebels" refused to disengage from the Castello road in Aleppo.
So honestly if the US cannot influence anyone on the ground then they're a useless negotiating partner and if they somehow managed to influence them, then would they be implicitly admitting to having ties to Nusra front?
As for the negotiations, to hell with it. The US has proven to be ineffective at influencing anyone on the ground, last year when there was a ceasefire, the "rebels" took advantage of the gov compliance and retook several towns in south Aleppo. With the least ceasefire "rebels" refused to disengage from the Castello road in Aleppo.
So honestly if the US cannot influence anyone on the ground then they're a useless negotiating partner and if they somehow managed to influence them, then would they be implicitly admitting to having ties to Nusra front?
Don't forget that the US started this by working to incite a coup 10 years ago.
KurtSloane
Banned
They do, at Shannon Airport, flights refuel there etc.
The origins of the Syrian uprising have very little to do with US ambitions in the region.
Yea, they should instead suck the cocks of those moderate, child-beheading islamist rebels and continue arming them, right? As usual manipulative reporting doing its' job perfectly.
Now I will do something I don't believe in, but for the sake of discussion, isn't Russia cornered? What is the argument against this? (I Believe the forces deployed in Europé was the lowest ever before Crimea right?)
That reminds me of the image of American Air bases around the borders of Iran that was posted when America were calling Iran the aggressors in everything. Cant remember if that was accurate.
Captain Smoker
Member
On the bright side, Mosul should be conquered back this year, therefore, ISIL is going to be de-facto defeated in Iraq.
But post-ISIL time is going to be complicated anyway.
From a strategic point, the sea port and military base in Tartus. edit: Assad himself is disposable, but they would need someone similarly aligned.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Assad is far worse, by multitudes than any extremist group or ISIS in this conflict.
Call thier bluff. Let them invoke Article 5, they backed down after provoking Turkey and they would do the same.
As do many other nations' military aircraft (2015):
The majority are US flights due to location.
Sephiroth503
Member
Right, which is an international airport. Lots of planes refuel there. Not a base.
Your purity test on the US is bullshit. You lack a massive understanding about geopolitics. I've seen you post for a good year now. Fuck Russia.
Chairman Yang
if he talks about books, you better damn well listen
Assad has done worse because he's had the capability to do worse. If he wins, I don't expect a genocide, just more horrible garden-variety dictatorial oppression. If ISIS wins, I can't say the same; things would be far, far worse.
MrToughPants
Brian Burke punched my mom
World police indeed.
Now I will do something I don't believe in, but for the sake of discussion, isn't Russia cornered? What is the argument against this? (I Believe the forces deployed in Europé was the lowest ever before Crimea right?)
That map isn't real...
No, he's not. ISIS are practically a fanatical death cult. Assad is a run of the mill dictator. ISIS with the arsenal of a state behind it would be terrifying.
Assad is worse my ass, at least he doesn't go beheading people left and right on account of their religious confession. The SAA is comprised of Sunnis, Shia, Alawites, Druze and Christians. Assad's Syria while a brutal dictatorship remains secular as opposed to the Syria envisioned by the likes of Ahrar Al Sham or JFS or the other dominant groups where Sunni Sharia law prevails and everyone who doesn't abide by it is an infidel.
Go ahead live a week in Tartus or Latakia then go to Raqqa or Idlib and then tell me who's worse.
Mammoth Jones
Member
Should have dealt with this once that red line got crossed.
Too late now.
Too late now.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Assad indiscriminately bombs populations with barrel bombs
Is using starvation as a weapon both (with Russian air strikes) denying aid and targeting convoys and aid stations
Bombing hospitals and aid stations (with Russian help)
Uses chemical weapons, cluster munitions, and White Phosphorus in civilian areas
Holds untold amounts in prisons with less than acceptable conditions for cattle much less humans
Has killed over 200k in the conflict with an estimated 60k in his prisons
Reduced major cities to rubble with no plan or intent to rebuild
Displaced ~8 million people internally and externally
No he is far worse than a "run of the mill" dictator and demonstrably worse than ISIS at this point.
Assad is definitively l not ideologically worse than ISIS, but then again, who is? He is however responsible for the majority of atrocities committed so far in Syria. 300,000 deaths are definitely not "run of the mill". He's managed to get more of his own people killed than his grand farce of resisting the state of Israel. Some people have a hard time swallowing it down, but it's extremely unlikely he would survive politically in the aftermath. The only way he might stay is in a partitioned Syria.
This is exactly what Assad had in mind when he started imprisoning and killing off any moderate opposition during the early years. He's essentially boiled it down to being between him and the crazies.
You know you could have actually read the replies to your posts instead of sticking your fingers into your ears and repeating yourself. All those things might be true (and bombing hospitals is something that everyone has done at this point unfortunately), now imagine instead of Assad you have Al-Baghdadi in control of this army, these chemical weapons etc
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Yes, Putin is so strong
So strong that he had to invade his former economic partner to prevent a major trade shift.
So strong they are now stuck in the middle of a Syrian civil war.
So strong that their economy is producing the GDP output of Spain.
You're confusing "strength and strategy" with what it really is, desperation. Russia has completely isolated itself and it's economy is tied to a natural commodity that will soon be not worth what is is now due to the shift to clean energy in the coming decades. Obama doing "nothing" has let Putin drag his country into the dirt for pure short term gains while suffering long term damages.
Also it's pretty disgusting seeing people defend Assad and Russia for committing mass murder.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Accidental strikes are one thing. Assad and Russia are systematically targeting hospitals and aid stations. They are even targeting bakeries for food distribution. NGOs have even stopped providing their locations because of the frequency of attacks.
Given the scope and effeincy of Assad's murder industry I don't think ISIS would be able to compete on the same scale.
Mr. Giggles
Member
I love how things always become "accidental" when our side fucks up.
somehow that makes one feel warm and cozy inside.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
It's not, never said it was "okay" it's something that should be condemned and recompense should be issued. Difference is there is at least of modicum of accountability there. Russia and Assad are doing this purposefully and refuse to even acknowledge the death they cause.
Luschient
Member
A pair of U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped two 700-pound faux nuclear bombs in the middle of the Nevada desert within the past few days.
Not sure how often they do this sort of thing but interesting timing.
Not sure how often they do this sort of thing but interesting timing.
He actually is. ISIS is definitely the next worst group, but in terms of scale no group outdoes the atrocities of Assad's forces.
Tal Shiar Agent
Banned
Pretty much. That's always been Russia's big disadvantage.
gutter_trash
Banned
Now I will do something I don't believe in, but for the sake of discussion, isn't Russia cornered? What is the argument against this? (I Believe the forces deployed in Europé was the lowest ever before Crimea right?)
why are the flags so big? it gives the false impression that their bases are either huge or that they are always patrolling the seas and sky in the area (which they are not)
US's presence in Portugal is not even on continental Europe but it is situated way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean on a air strip in the Azores (Islands)
this map is misleading
spindoctor
Member
It's a whoopsy daisy accident when "the good guys" do it and an inhumane war crime when Russia does it.
- Status