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Senator Bob Corker (R) Tennessee will not seek re-election next year

B

brianmcdoogle

Member
Historical footnote: In 2010, in the state of Illinois that Barack Obama won 61.92% to 36.78% just two years prior, Mark Kirk (R) won his election by less than 2 percentage points.

BREAKING: @SenBobCorker will not seek re-election next year. @Tennessean @knoxnews @memphisnews

This means that another safe Republican Senate seat is now going to be potentially up for grabs, and he joins an expanding list of Republican officials not seeking reelection next year. This does not necessarily mean the Democratic Party will pick up the seat, but it is evidence of a potential trend against the incumbent party as well as the need to use resources for what are typically considered extremely safe seats.

2017-08-24_Senate_Map_600.png
 
T

tbm24

Member
2018 is going to be a hell of an election year. Hoping the get out the vote apparatus takes this as seriously as they should.
 
D

DTC

Member
I wonder when Orrin Hatch is gonna retire. That dude is 83 and has been serving in the senate for over 40 years.
 
J

Jorok Goldblade

Member
My sister lives in Alabama. Apparently if the Republican Primary goes to Roy Moore, which is how it's leaning, general election polling is within the margin of error. Throw in the quarter million disenfranchised voters who could be re-registered thanks to the state finally defining what felonies fit the criteria for permanent disenfranchisement, and Alabama could be in play as well.
 
K

kirblar

Member
DTC said:
I wonder when Orrin Hatch is gonna retire. That dude is 83 and has been serving in the senate for over 40 years.
Click to expand...
That announcement could happen shortly. This is basically THE time to do it and there's been rumblings that Romney's interested in the seat.
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
TN is old South. Outside of Memphis people are not only okay with Trump's racism but some actively support it.

GOP states that are more likely to move to the left are outside of the old South, like Texas.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Trickster said:
So wait, now that they are finally in power, republicans are just going "fuck this, I'm out"?
Click to expand...

Why stick around when the bomb about how much Putin owns the GOP, not just Trump, is going to come to light soon?

Want your legacy associated with the stink of Russia and a bunch of their oligarch mobsters?
 
P

pa22word

Member
This map has never looked good to me, tbqh. Back when Clinton was still looking like a sure thing I was lamenting how hard this senate race looked for dems.

I mean Dems basically have to sweep everything in order to gain back the senate while the gop mostly just has to play defense and possibly can even bolster their majority with a few wins in states that voted for trump anyways.

Crossing my fingers, but yeah...
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Look for a strong candidate and freaking go for it, force the GOP to play defense. Dems have nothing to lose plus, as mentioned, midterms have seen some wild results.
 
D

DTC

Member
kirblar said:
That announcement could happen shortly. This is basically THE time to do it and there's been rumblings that Romney's interested in the seat.
Click to expand...

Romney would be interesting. I feel like he would feud with Trump more than the standard GOP member considering their history.
 
K

kirblar

Member
pa22word said:
This map has never looked good to me, tbqh. Back when Clinton was still looking like a sure thing I was lamenting how hard this senate race looked for dems.

I mean Dems basically have to sweep everything in order to gain back the senate while the gop mostly just has to play defense and possibly can even bolster their majority with a few wins in states that voted for trump anyways.

Crossing my fingers, but yeah...
Click to expand...
This map is "bad" for Dems because it's the one from '06 and '12, both very good Dem years. We can go only for inches instead of yards, but at 48/52, inches matter.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I don't see Dems winning the Senate back, unless Mueller finds something truly horrible and the GOP fouls-up its response to the findings.

My dream scenario is that Justice Kennedy decides to hold-on for another year, and the Dems retake the House and Senate. But that's an insane fantasy..

edit:
here's a "What If..?"
What if Corker knows something about what's coming?
 
Futurematic

Futurematic

Member
DTC said:
I wonder when Orrin Hatch is gonna retire. That dude is 83 and has been serving in the senate for over 40 years.
Click to expand...

He also defeated the fantastic Senator Frank Moss by saying 18 years was enough. I know there’s been a lot of terrible choices made by American voters in Senate races, but damn that one still bothers me.
 
D

DTC

Member
pa22word said:
This map has never looked good to me, tbqh. Back when Clinton was still looking like a sure thing I was lamenting how hard this senate race looked for dems.

I mean Dems basically have to sweep everything in order to gain back the senate while the gop mostly just has to play defense and possibly can even bolster their majority with a few wins in states that voted for trump anyways.

Crossing my fingers, but yeah...
Click to expand...

Breaking even in this map would be a great result for dems, because 2020 and 2022 are much more favorable maps. Gaining seats would be even more great.
 
M

Minty_Freshness

Neo Member
teh_pwn said:
TN is old South. Outside of Memphis people are not only okay with Trump's racism but some actively support it.

GOP states that are more likely to move to the left are outside of the old South, like Texas.
Click to expand...

Not to say that this will make a difference one way or the other in the election, but I have to mention that TN is a bit more layered than this. I grew up outside Memphis and was at UT Knoxville for 2 years.

Nashville is a good town, and Knoxville, being a college town, also has a relatively sane population. Will they be super progressive die hards in those cities? No. But I think there is a good segment of the population there that are, at minimum, closer to sane Republicans (at least those that used to exist in the distant past of the 1990s) than full on Trump supporters.

As with most of the country, urban and rural are different worlds, even in the South.
 
K

KingV

Member
I wonder if he knows he ain’t winning re-election with pics of him running around in a MAGA hat after the shit hits the fan with the Russia investigation.

As chair of the intel committee, he has more info than we do.
 
S

sflufan

Banned
Instead of a relatively "moderate" Republican like Corker, that seat will be filled by a knuckle-dragging Trumpist.

Fantastic. Just fantastic.
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Minty_Freshness said:
Not to say that this will make a difference one way or the other in the election, but I have to mention that TN is a bit more layered than this. I grew up outside Memphis and was at UT Knoxville for 2 years.

Nashville is a good town, and Knoxville, being a college town, also has a relatively sane population. Will they be super progressive die hards in those cities? No. But I think there is a good segment of the population there that are, at minimum, closer to sane Republicans (at least those that used to exist in the distant past of the 1990s) than full on Trump supporters.

As with most of the country, urban and rural are different worlds, even in the South.
Click to expand...

I lived in TN for 14 years. Yes, Nashville is much more moderate and is gradually getting more liberal, but it's offset by millions of people in suburbs. Growing up in the Nashville suburbs I didn't think much of it, but every time I visit I notice copious casual racism including a bunch of people that probably don't even realize they are racist. Half of the stuff Trump says probably goes over their heads unnoticed. This old South culture goes beyond just racism. In TN if you don't dress up for various things people think less of you. In Texas nobody gives a fuck.

In contrast, even rural Texas has a massive biracial Hispanic/White populace. Racism exists, especially in east Texas, but nowhere near the degree of Tennessee. People just don't think that way here as much. Even George W Bush pushed for immigration reform stating that family values don't end at the border.
 
P

pa22word

Member
DTC said:
Breaking even in this map would be a great result for dems, because 2020 and 2022 are much more favorable maps. Gaining seats would be even more great.
Click to expand...

kirblar said:
This map is "bad" for Dems because it's the one from '06 and '12, both very good Dem years. We can go only for inches instead of yards, but at 48/52, inches matter.
Click to expand...

Well yeah of course, I just think it's a good idea to temper expectations a bit rather than get people overly excited over a possible senate takeover that is a decent uphill climb. If the dems take even a single seat while holding what they have I think that'd be a really good day, no matter what blowhards on fox say.
 
G

Glass Shark

Banned
As a Tennessean, Corker sucks and I'll be glad to see him go. But I have zero confidence we'll get someone to replace him who's any better.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
gogosox82 said:
I wasn't really surprised by that. Kirk went up against a weak candidate in 2010 and its not like Kirk was a tea party guy. He was basically a centrist so its not surprising he won.
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If you're not surprised when Republicans win seats in states they almost lost by 30 points, you shouldn't be surprised if Democrats win seats in states they lost by almost 30 points.

John Rabbit said:
I'm really not seeing Arizona as a "toss-up". I don't forsee a strong Democrat candidate for Senate.
Click to expand...

Uh, yeah, Kyrsten Sinema is basically going to run and it's a tossup in a state that Trump won by like 3 points.
 
Velcro Fly

Velcro Fly

Member
Mark Kirk is way more moderate than your hardline Republican though. This will probably be closer to whoever the Dem is in Alabama running against Moore/Strange than it will be to Mark Kirk winning in Illinois
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
sflufan said:
Instead of a relatively "moderate" Republican like Corker, that seat will be filled by a knuckle-dragging Trumpist.

Fantastic. Just fantastic.
Click to expand...

I would much rather have a nut job who is going to clash with the establishment Republicans than these "Moderates" that vote yes on every evil initiative shoved their way like the healthcare bills.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
silkysmooth said:
Mark Kirk is way more moderate than your hardline Republican though. This will probably be closer to whoever the Dem is in Alabama running against Moore/Strange than it will be to Mark Kirk winning in Illinois
Click to expand...

That's not the analogous situation.

What if a moderate Jim Cooper runs? He's way more moderate than your hardline Democrat. So would you expect him to do well?

Again, if you're not surprised by a 30 point swing in an Illinois open seat in a midterm, you shouldn't be surprised by a 30 points swing in an Tennessee open seat in a midterm. Midterms are weird.
 
M

Minty_Freshness

Neo Member
teh_pwn said:
I lived in TN for 14 years. Yes, Nashville is much more moderate and is gradually getting more liberal, but it's offset by millions of people in suburbs. Growing up in the Nashville suburbs I didn't think much of it, but every time I visit I notice copious casual racism including a bunch of people that probably don't even realize they are racist. Half of the stuff Trump says probably goes over their heads unnoticed. This old South culture goes beyond just racism. In TN if you don't dress up for various things people think less of you. In Texas nobody gives a fuck.

In contrast, even rural Texas has a massive biracial Hispanic/White populace. Racism exists, especially in east Texas, but nowhere near the degree of Tennessee. People just don't think that way here as much. Even George W Bush pushed for immigration reform stating that family values don't end at the border.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the response. Your point about the larger Hispanic population in TX is a good one. I guess there's just that part of me that wants to believe that the old home state isn't totally irredeemable. But I do remember that gossipy/judging atmosphere, even growing up, that's the damn truth.
 
M

Mortemis

Banned
sflufan said:
Instead of a relatively "moderate" Republican like Corker, that seat will be filled by a knuckle-dragging Trumpist.

Fantastic. Just fantastic.
Click to expand...

Basically. It'd be better if another "moderate" republican ran but they'll probably vote in some bleeding MAGA fuck.

Anyways if it means the GOP has to use more funds to keep that seat that's nice. For 2018 democrats just holding on to their seats would be great.
 
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