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Senator Bob Corker (R) Tennessee will not seek re-election next year
- Thread starter brianmcdoogle
- Start date
mugurumakensei
Member
Could also be shoving the ACA repeal through?
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Either impeachment or the Obamacare repeal
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Why would you have to do the Obamacare repeal "independently"?
RPGCrazied
Member
I hear this woman could be a challenger. Yikes.
Nordic4tKnight
Member
Hes on the Foreign Relations Committee, its probably North Korea
D
Deleted member 1159
Unconfirmed Member
If Kelli Ward beats Flake in the primary and John McCain retires/passes away, both seats could go blue. Its an absolutely best case pie in the sky scenario but not implausible really
I hear this woman could be a challenger. Yikes.
this isn't in the current US code at all
Abstrusity
Member
Hope Manning runs as a Republican so he can add to his losing streak amirite
RPGCrazied
Member
this isn't in the current US code at all
Right? And what is she going to do if they don't stand? Arrest them? I bet she would like that.
fredrancour
Member
Manchin has higher approval ratings than trump within WV. He'll have the seat for life at this rate.
I'm only worried about MO and IN
It's just reiterating "suggestions" of what should be done.
So functionally it's a useless piece of legislation to just fire up the base.
clevbrowns94
Member
I hear this woman could be a challenger. Yikes.
Awful, and what if you can't stand?
Robdraggoo
Member
No way. Dudes gonna get started on the retirement fund. Gonna milk some lobbyist and kill aca.
Cool, swinging a state from a solid R to a leans R makes taking a Senate seat a lot more likely. I'm not familiar with Democratic leaders in Tennessee, but I'm sure one of them could make a strong campaign
Mark Kirk is not a good example of how a seat can swing from one party to the other, though. Giannoulias, and the Democratic Party in Illinois as a whole, was tainted by working with Blagoviech's administration, given that Blagoviech's impeachment and very questionable appointment of Roland Burris as Obama's replacement. It was as much a referendum on the status of state government as it was electing a senator, and Mark Kirk did a good job of being a centrist candidate who could appeal to voters disillusioned by Blagoviech's blatant corruption. A better example would be Joni Ernst flipping Iowa's 2nd senator red after Tom Harkin's retirement in 2014, since she ran a successful campaign after a long-term senator retired and the Democratic newcomer was unable to capture the respect/interest of former Harkin voters
Mark Kirk is not a good example of how a seat can swing from one party to the other, though. Giannoulias, and the Democratic Party in Illinois as a whole, was tainted by working with Blagoviech's administration, given that Blagoviech's impeachment and very questionable appointment of Roland Burris as Obama's replacement. It was as much a referendum on the status of state government as it was electing a senator, and Mark Kirk did a good job of being a centrist candidate who could appeal to voters disillusioned by Blagoviech's blatant corruption. A better example would be Joni Ernst flipping Iowa's 2nd senator red after Tom Harkin's retirement in 2014, since she ran a successful campaign after a long-term senator retired and the Democratic newcomer was unable to capture the respect/interest of former Harkin voters
John Rabbit
Banned
Sinema has not announced her candidacy as far as I can tell. It'd be great if she won (she's my district rep), but I just don't see it.
You're underestimating the amount of nutjobs that would vote for Kelli Ward over literally anyone running as a 'D' in Arizona.
hodayathink
Member
As much as I think Dems do have a good chance if they can find a good candidate in Tennessee (even though I don't know who that would be), that was a pretty special case as Illinois Dems had basically proven themselves as some of the most corrupt politicians in the country at that time(the standing governor attempted to sell Obama's seat to the highest bidder after he was elected president, and is currently in jail because of that).
OdysseusVA
Banned
Could you explain how this would work?
Get out the vote should definitely be out in full force, but in the end it's up to people to not be complete dumbasses and let pubs stay where they are.
Frozenprince
Banned
Replacing Hatch with Romney is a net win as far as I'm concerned.
This map looks like more of an opportunity for Republicans then Democrats. Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, and West Virginia all went for Trump last year.
Escape Goat
Member
Tennessee will not go democratic. This is an opportunity for freedom caucus to pick up a seat at the expense of an establishment republican.
hodayathink
Member
It is, but some of those states are legitimately purple with decently popular Dem senators (Florida, Ohio) and the Dem senators in some of the red states are still polling pretty well (North Dakota, West Virginia, and I think Montana). The two that really have to be watched out for right now are Indiana and Missouri. Also, the Dems are almost assuredly going to get Heller's seat in Nevada.
This
Oh yeah it's Tennessee. The only thing is that Nashville is starting to be more diverse and is growing rapidly, but I think politically the state is going to be Republican territory for the foreseeable future.
Glass Shark
Banned
Oh god. Blackburn is a fucking nightmare creature. As I said before, if you think TN is going to get someone better out of this, you must not live here. These monsters are everywhere.I hear this woman could be a challenger. Yikes.
Queen Vulpix
Member
I hear this woman could be a challenger. Yikes.
Trying to pass laws forcing private citizens to obey/worship the flag and anthem or else sounds very dictator/North Korea -ish...
fredrancour
Member
Well yes it is. It's the same class of senators as 2000 (went even), 2006 (anti-bush wave), and 2012 (obama reelection) so the senate class is super-blue right now.
indiana and missouri are way more in jepoardy than any of the seats you just named though. those two tossups are currently held by dems.
WV loves manchin. he's got enough of an independent brand to keep his seat for life at this rate.
Ohio and florida are still purple. they didn't turn into oklahoma overnight.
incumbency advantage + no trump on the ballot to mobilize deplorables + no anti-hilary madness to make "moderates" do idiotic things means that the dems have improbably good odds of defending a very large number of seats while booting heller and taking swings at AZ.
Fantastical
Death Prophet
We will probably go more conservative/crazy.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
The 2005-2016 Dem strategy will be a hard habit to break, it seems.
Interesting phrasing huh? I wonder whatever it could mean...
HerbertBirdsfoot
Member
Corker had questioned Trumps competence to be president:
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-acti...nator-trump-white-house-needs-radical-changes
TN going Dem is possible now - open seat in a potential wave, likely a nutters Republican challenger? Could happen.
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-acti...nator-trump-white-house-needs-radical-changes
TN going Dem is possible now - open seat in a potential wave, likely a nutters Republican challenger? Could happen.
Majority of posts (or at least half) are expressing the opposite but sure lololol gaf amirite.
These are my thoughts as well. Holds in Indiana and Missouri would be amazing but it's not looking like a sure thing. Hope is in Nevada and Arizona.
eBay Huckster
Member
nah you guys are right with the "why bother" posts, let's only contest the handful of seats in states with conditions favorable to democrats because that's gone over so fuckin' well in the rest of the decade
Never going to happen. Tennessee is extremely racist so they are eating Trump's shit up. They will vote in someone else that supports his idiotic agenda.
HerbertBirdsfoot
Member
Corker won the seat in a very close race in 2006. Yes it was an anti-Bush wave but who knows what things will be like in 2018.
To think Tennessee would go Democratic is pretty impractical. Could it happen sure, anything is possible but it's not going to happen. Look at the state legislature and the difference in registered Democrats versus registered Republicans in the state. It's not a state that's going to be in play if you know the politics of Tennessee.
Scott Desjarlais a "family values" Tea Party asshole was reelected after it came out that not only did he cheat on his wife, he made his mistress have an abortion AND he made his wife have an abortion. Those people are going to vote for whoever has an R next to their name regardless of what they actually stand for.
HerbertBirdsfoot
Member
Harold Ford got 48% of the vote there in 2006. Shouldnt write off open seats.
whyamihere
Banned
I feel like if Michigan was open half of GAF would say that Trump won it and Dems have no shot.
The climate was much different then though. There was dissatisfaction amount the Republican base with Bush at that point. The same can't currently be said about Trump's base in TN. He is perfectly pandering to uneducated, white racist voters. They are loving his ridiculous rhetoric. Something could change in the next year, but I doubt it would change enough for the state to elect a Democratic Senator.
eBay Huckster
Member
I'm going to inform Mark Kirk and Scott Brown that they were never elected to the Senate against extremely strong state Democratic headwinds in a wave election
Mark Kirk winning a seat isn't surprising. If the populations in or around Chicago vote even remotely Republican a Republican has a chance to win because the majority of Illinois votes Republican to begin with. It would take a huge statewide shift that that to occur in Tennessee which is not likely under the current climate.
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