Sorry that I don't post on here as much. Source Gaming, and my responsibilities on SmashBoards is usually enough to keep me busy. If you told me on Twitter that you were discussing my opinions, I would've known directly to come here after my actual job. I didn't realize this event occurred until someone gave me the heads up.
It's just an opinion.
It's not fact, and I've never once presented it as a fact. If I had insider information I would be a lot more confident about his potential chances. However, I don't so I have no idea what's going to happen. It's just as much speculation as everyone else here. I just happen to go against the majority. I can be wrong, I've been wrong in the past. It's just an opinion.
It's been about six months since the original data slots found by Shiny Quagsire were found. That means they have been working on two characters for almost the same amount of time that Mewtwo (Initially revealed on October 23rd, released April 15th...so at least 7 month development cycle), Lucas, Roy, Ryu (Were all started before April 1st, but unknown exactly when. Lucas had significant Wii U progress in the April 1st direct, so at least Lucas was probably worked on for quite some time. Released June 14th) were in development.
While we are not exactly sure how long Lucas, Roy and Ryu were worked on...either way they were working on 4 characters in the timespan of 9 months. Of course they also added stages (3 of them), mode updates (replay, tourney mode (not released until July), share functionality), Mii Fighter costumes (3ds and Wii U), balance updates, and the promotional stuff (in-game store [which wasn't in the original data. Just the menu text for it], website, movies for all the newcomers. That's a lot of stuff in 6-7 months. In addition they might have planned the two characters, and one stage that Shiny Quaqsire found.
So essentially; from the way I see it, you have a long period of development for just 2 characters (now 3) and one stage (now 3). With that much time, I wouldn't be surprised if they are all newcomers.
We had a lot of stages, and Mii Fighter costumes but the modes should be all finished unless there is a surprise. Characters, additional stages and Mii costumes are left. We've been getting the stages (3 pre-June, 5-post June [Duck Hunt 3DS, Pirate Ship, Mario Maker Hyrule and Peach Castle 64) and Mii Fighters (2 pre-June update 2 post-June update waves so far) at an semi-expected rate, so I expect that work to be going into characters. Especially when most of the stages have been remakes/ ports (Literally Duck Hunt 3DS).
It's possible that Wolf is going to come back. However, I don't consider him as a shoo-in. Like I said in my tweets, it also wouldn't be a miracle if he got in. It really could go either way, I'm 50/50.
Dates for everything
Source for working on Lucas, Roy, Ryu before ballot announcement
Breakdown of the data found by Shiny Quaqsire
I broke down the Mii Fighter costume packs here.
tl;rd Wolf's not guaranteed. It's just my opinion based on the way I view the situation. I could be wrong.