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Sony Earnings next week - Analysts predict big losses

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aXQR2HiP7FM8&refer=asia

Sony's Stringer May Post Biggest Loss in Two Years, Plans Cuts

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Howard Stringer cut more than 9,000 jobs and $700 million in annual costs in eight years as head of Sony Corp.'s U.S. operations. Investors want more of the same now he's chief executive of the whole company.

Sony, the world's second-largest consumer electronics maker, will probably post a 70.3 billion yen ($658 million) loss in the quarter ended March 31, the biggest in two years, compared with an 38.2 billion yen loss the year earlier, according to the median forecast of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The Tokyo-based company reports on April 27.

Investors are counting on Stringer, the 63-year-old media executive who directed Sony's acquisition of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc., to revive earnings growth amid falling prices of its Wega televisions, DVD recorders and Net Walkman music players. Sony makes about a quarter of the profit of Apple Computer Inc. per employee and 6 percent of those at Samsung Electronics Co.

``Stringer appears to have a good track record in the U.S.,'' said Richard Rothwell, who holds Sony shares in his $1.3 billion Northern International Growth Equity fund at Northern Trust Co. in London. ``We hope that Sony would finally get their act together and release some of the hidden value and restructure the company.''

Shares of Sony have dropped 2.2 percent since March 7, when it named Stringer the company's first non-Japanese CEO and Ryoji Chubachi, 57, as president. The stock outperformed the 5.2 percent decline in the Topix Electric Appliances Index, which tracks shares of Sony, Canon Inc. and 160 other Japanese electronics makers.

Job Cuts

For the year ended March 31, the survey shows net income probably rose 70 percent to 150 billion yen, in line with the company's estimates. Operating profit, or sales minus the cost of goods sold and administrative expenses, probably gained 11 percent to 110 billion yen, according to the survey.

Stringer has said he will follow through with a three-year, 330 billion yen cost-cutting plan introduced by Sony's former CEO Nobuyuki Idei and former President Kunitake Ando in October 2003. The plan includes cutting 20,000 jobs, or about 12 percent of its workforce, by March 2007, and reducing the number of suppliers to 1,000 from 4,700.

Sony has fired at least 185 executives at MGM since its purchase of the studio, the Los Angeles Times reported this month. Sony is expected to cut about 1,300 of 1,500 MGM employees in the coming months as the 81-year-old studio, which owns the James Bond series, stops making and distributing its own movies, the Times reported.

Falling prices of digital electronics may take a further toll on earnings in the year started April 1, says Yuji Fujimori, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Japan Ltd. Profit for this fiscal year will probably be 129 billion yen on sales of 7.4 trillion yen, according to the survey.

Falling Prices

``The outlook is bleak,'' Fujimori said. ``The U.S. economy is showing signs of a slowdown and Sony will probably have to book further charges to accelerate cost cuts.''

The company's operating loss probably totaled 81.3 billion yen in the fiscal fourth quarter, from 109.8 billion yen a year earlier, the survey showed. The electronics business, which makes up two-thirds of total revenue, is set for a second year of operating losses.

Samsung, which earned more than Microsoft Corp. in 2004, and LG.Philips LCD Co. last week reported quarterly profit that missed analyst estimates because of price declines.

Sony's mobile phone earnings may also drop in the quarter after Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications Ltd., the cellular-phone venture with Sweden's Ericsson AB, said profit in the January to March quarter fell 61 percent because of sliding handset prices.

`Next iPod'

The company will also need products like the PlayStation Portable game player, its first foray into the handheld game industry dominated by Nintendo Co., to help the company differentiate its devices, say analysts such as Koya Tabata at Credit Suisse First Boston in Tokyo.

The PSP, as the gadget is known, can also play music and movie files and will be able to surf select Web sites for users to download music and other content when it debuts in South Korea next month.

``There is a possibility that the PSP can turn into the next iPod if it can define itself as more than just a video game player,'' said Tabata, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston in Tokyo who rates Sony shares ``outperform.''

In the first week of U.S. sales in March, the company sold more than 500,000 units of the handheld gadget, which came with a copy of Sony Picture Entertainment's ``Spider-Man 2'' movie. Sony has sold about 1.2 million units in Japan since a December debut.

Digital Library

The movie unit is making digital copies of its movies and television shows so filmmakers can use them more easily in DVDs, digital cable and Internet downloads, Senior Vice President Jeff Hargleroad told the Los Angeles Times this week. Sony expects to have 80 percent of its video collection in digital format within a year, Hargleroad said.

``Stringer could help the synergy between the electronics and entertainment units,'' said Yuuki Sakurai, who helps manage the equivalent of $4.7 billion of Japanese equities, including Sony shares, at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo. ``Success will hinge on whether it can weather the price declines and come out with a hit product like the Apple iPod.''
 
"The plan includes cutting 20,000 jobs, or about 12 percent of its workforce, by March 2007, and reducing the number of suppliers to 1,000 from 4,700."

note to Pana - i _told_ you that this is what would happen over 12 months ago.
 
Q4 is disastrous for Sony.
Anyway for the full fiscal year the situation is not so bad:

For the year ended March 31, the survey shows net income probably rose 70 percent to 150 billion yen, in line with the company's estimates. Operating profit, or sales minus the cost of goods sold and administrative expenses, probably gained 11 percent to 110 billion yen, according to the survey.
 
Games are actually the only thing saving Sony's ass right now. Software sales was 40 percent of the entire company's revenue for the last three months of 2004.

Where it's bleeding money is from the electronics division, because their stuff costs so much more.
 
Jungle Red said:
Where it's bleeding money is from the electronics division, because their stuff costs so much more.
It's also where SCEI likes to offload hardware start up costs and investment (usually under the guise of shared technology). Easy to make cash hand over fist in gaming when you don't have to account for that youself. ;)
 
Sony has fired at least 185 executives at MGM since its purchase of the studio, the Los Angeles Times reported this month. Sony is expected to cut about 1,300 of 1,500 MGM employees in the coming months as the 81-year-old studio, which owns the James Bond series, stops making and distributing its own movies, the Times reported.'
That sucks. MGM has a wealth of history behind it.
 
I would think this was expected. They spent a ton of money last quarter on things they hope will pay off for years to come. PS3 production next year should be costly as well. I don't see a good year for Sony until 2007. [/armchair_analyst]
 
Teddman said:
That sucks. MGM has a wealth of history behind it.

MGM has already been passed around like a redheaded stepchild for years. Any ties to their golden age have long sense been cut and all that remains is their sizeable and largely untapped library.
 
DCharlie said:
note to Pana - i _told_ you that this is what would happen over 12 months ago.

You did say that: I never said you were a dumb lad, did I ;) ?

edit: uhm... I wonder what exactly were those MGM guys doing.

Well, 185 executives does not seem like we are talking about the same group of people: the top-top brass is a smaller niche of leaders, but I guess we should wait and see on this one.

Did the money already arrived to you, btw :) ?
 
Dr_Cogent said:
When and why did Wario get banned?

He quoted that wonderful Lou Diamond Phillips movie about Ritchie Valens :D
(his tag said banned, but I was still able to see his profile, so maybe it was a warning)
 
sonycowboy said:
He quoted that wonderful Lou Diamond Phillips movie about Ritchie Valens :D
(his tag said banned, but I was still able to see his profile, so maybe it was a warning)

Don't know anything about the movie or quote, and I think most bannings here are usually have a timeout. I've gotten the impressions they don't perma ban often. But what the hell do I know. :lol
 
Here at Best Buy the projected cost of the PSP Value Pack is actually not even listed on our system.

In other words, we are losing money on every PSP sold.

So Sony must be feeling the heat even moreso.
 
Am I the only one that just found out that Samsung earned more than fucking Microsoft in 2004? How in the hell? How does an electronics company beat out a company that literally prints money? Is electronics Samsung's only business, or am I missing out on some key thing? Shit, I didn't think there would be another player that could theoretically join videogame industry for a long time, but if they're really that big Samsung may very well be the next challenger.
 
Andy787 said:
Am I the only one that just found out that Samsung earned more than fucking Microsoft in 2004? How in the hell? How does an electronics company beat out a company that literally prints money? Is electronics Samsung's only business, or am I missing out on some key thing? Shit, I didn't think there would be another player that could theoretically join videogame industry for a long time, but if they're really that big Samsung may very well be the next challenger.


They are probably pushing their products in developing countries like China and India etc. Those two specifically are very important especially for home electronics.
 
Cold-Steel said:
Here at Best Buy the projected cost of the PSP Value Pack is actually not even listed on our system.

In other words, we are losing money on every PSP sold.

So Sony must be feeling the heat even moreso.

What kind of peanut butter and jelly business is this. Buy a product to stock shelves with, then sell it to lose money?
 
"You did say that: I never said you were a dumb lad, did I ;) ?"

nope - but you did say that T60 was ontrack and they wouldn't resort to wholescale chopping to make the profit gain.

Actually, i got the number wrong, this is double what i predicted. :(

Hopefully, the games segment gets away from any burnination.
 
Cold-Steel said:
Here at Best Buy the projected cost of the PSP Value Pack is actually not even listed on our system.

In other words, we are losing money on every PSP sold.

So Sony must be feeling the heat even moreso.

:lol :lol :lol
 
This is Sony as a whole though. As a whole, they've been a crappy company for damn near a decade. Let's not forget that the PS1 superceded the Walkman in the mid-90's. They've been on a decline in different sectors since then. There was a brief hump, I believe around the dotcom era, then another slide. Fuck 'em, they can blame their bullshit policies, like making crappy, proprietary mediums. The Playstation line has been the only good thing in the company IMO. I guess Stringer's division has been doing well too, but I don't buy music or movies, so I don't follow that sector. I still think Kutaragi got the promotion. Then I wouldn't have to worry about the Playstation business model getting fucksed with. The business model itself could use some work, but what if outsourcing parts leads to compromises in PS4 design, and so on? Not where I'd like to see SCE heading in the future IMO. But I'll wait to see how Stringer handles it. With any luck, he can finally turn Sony (at large) into a company I actually like. For now, I hate everything they make not called Playstation. PEACE.
 
as far as i can see - Sony have always been a bit of a safe bet for the Japanese consumer. Buy a sony, it's a guarantee that the unit will function correctly and will look stylish, and will be fairly robust and won't just break after a year (we are talking about tv's and electronics here).

However, over the past few years other brands have increased the quality of their goods, whilst focusing on slashing the prices. This is leading to people to start to look away from sony brands... why get the Sony product that costs $500 more than a "lesser" brand unit with the exact same functionality that now start to look as good as (and in a lot of cases, surpasses) the Sony equivalent?

This coupled with a business model for even their successful PS line (high initial costs , long profit regaining period) leaves Sony open to quite large risks. The PS3 seems to have been built on budgets that suggest they expect to sell beyond the PS1/PS2, but with the Xb2 as a direct, earlier launching machine, that could either reduce or eliminate any potential profit from the PS3 line.

Sony will be a _very_ interesting company to watch over the next 4-5 years
 
Cold-Steel said:
Here at Best Buy the projected cost of the PSP Value Pack is actually not even listed on our system.

In other words, we are losing money on every PSP sold.

So Sony must be feeling the heat even moreso.

I'll call bullshit on this. And no, this isn't my opinion either.
 
i doubt any retailers are making zero profit on the hardware, whilst i'm sure sony are talking a hit on each unit they produce.
 
DCharlie said:
as far as i can see - Sony have always been a bit of a safe bet for the Japanese consumer. Buy a sony, it's a guarantee that the unit will function correctly and will look stylish, and will be fairly robust and won't just break after a year (we are talking about tv's and electronics here).

Nowadays people just say "don't buy Sony if you want quality". In Japan, many people buy Sony products for design and innovation, Panasonic is more the bastion of quality.
 
Pimpwerx said:
Let's not forget that the PS1 superceded the Walkman in the mid-90's.
Not entirely I'd say... many more Walkmans have been sold than PlayStations after all (330m Vs 190m).
 
YellowAce said:
Nowadays people just say "don't buy Sony if you want quality". In Japan, many people buy Sony products for design and innovation, Panasonic is more the bastion of quality.

Nixon used a Sony for the Watergate tapes.
 
jarrod said:
Not entirely I'd say... many more Walkmans have been sold than PlayStations after all (330m Vs 190m).

Well, in terms of a fair comparison, Playstation has now had a much more successful level of control in the marketshare versus the Walkman over a ten-year period. The pricepoint difference also should be considered. It's a fair statement, IMO.
 
MightyHedgehog said:
Well, in terms of a fair comparison, Playstation has now had a much more successful level of control in the marketshare versus the Walkman over a ten-year period. The pricepoint difference also should be considered. It's a fair statement, IMO.
That's not really true either, Walkman similarly dominated in the 1980s iirc. I'd guess both probably hovered around 60-65% marketshare.
 
jarrod said:
Not entirely I'd say... many more Walkmans have been sold than PlayStations after all (330m Vs 190m).
Huh? I meant marketshare. Back when the PS1 was making up 40% of Sony's revenue, it had already surpassed the Walkman as Sony's #1 consumer electronics device. I don't know if it's possible for any single console to compete with the massive Walkman install base. But the PS line will break that 300M mark in less time than it took the Walkman. I think it took the Walkman over 20 years to get to that total. PEACE.

EDIT: Marketshare isn't the word I'm looking for. I'm talking about the percentage of Sony's operating revenue. So...revenue-share, I guess.
 
Pimpwerx said:
Huh? I meant marketshare. Back when the PS1 was making up 40% of Sony's revenue, it had already surpassed the Walkman as Sony's #1 consumer electronics device. I don't know if it's possible for any single console to compete with the massive Walkman install base. But the PS line will break that 300M mark in less time than it took the Walkman. I think it took the Walkman over 20 years to get to that total. PEACE.

EDIT: Marketshare isn't the word I'm looking for. I'm talking about the percentage of Sony's operating revenue. So...revenue-share, I guess.
Oh that makes sense, PlayStation definitely rose as Walkman started dying down (in the mid 1990s). It's going to take PlayStation somewhere between 4-7 more years to break 300m though I think, even with PSP.
 
Microsoft has some damn good strategists and I expect they play this well. Sun Tzu (or was in von Klausewitz?) adviced not to fight to draining wars on two fronts simultaneously, it will lead to the destruction of your army.

Well, Sony has just coupled two giant upfront investment risks with an overall unhealthy company, for what just may become THE meltdown of 2000s.

In the long term this will suck to the consumers. Now we are seeing fantastic proposals like PSP for a small prize, but this won't last forever, unfortunately.

I expect Microsoft to up the ante until they really drain Sony dry - first hit Sony hard in the critical part of their biz model, the licence revenue (cutting platform fee), then outspend on marketing + exclusives, finally counter with cheaper hardware.
 
Chittagong said:
I expect Microsoft to up the ante until they really drain Sony dry - first hit Sony hard in the critical part of their biz model, the licence revenue (cutting platform fee), then outspend on marketing + exclusives, finally counter with cheaper hardware.


I've thought this all along, make them bleed
 
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