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Stand and be counted: Predict when will the Coronavirus go away?
EverythingsOverrated
Member
This is what I'm more worried about. I think if this whole thing is still going on in July, people will be losing their shit. People will eventually protest/riot and it could get bad.
I already expect the crime to go up quite a bit in the next few weeks. I think you're going to see people breaking and entering into businesses and people just straight up snapping.
JordanN
Banned
But aren't the police/military already being deployed (hence the lockdowns)?
If it's just 1 or 2 people going around rioting, it would be suppressed very easily. It would need to be organized groups of people getting together to cause real damage.
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EverythingsOverrated
Member
I've been out on walks and bike rides pretty consistently the last couple weeks and I've probably seen less cops than usual. It's not like like post 9/11 where we had dudes with M16's at landmarks.
I don't think if this is happening in July that it will be one or two people. When you have a ton of people stuck in their houses for 3 months they're going to reach out to others via social media etc to organize
It won't ever go away, it's a flu virus. It isn't going anywhere. Eventually it will be routine in the yearly flu vaccinations people can opt for and we will just forget about it.
Over 30 years the flu has killed between 23,000 to 36,000 a year.
It's the fucking flu. Granted it easier to catch than most strains but it's still just the flu.
Over 30 years the flu has killed between 23,000 to 36,000 a year.
It's the fucking flu. Granted it easier to catch than most strains but it's still just the flu.
GymWolf
Member
People are loosing their minds right now, no chance in hell that they can continue this quarantine for much long.
People are also loosing their jobs and house during these last weeks, staying at home for another 3 or more months is simply impossible, only rich people are gonna survive by that time.
Landlords and suppliers still wants their money at the end of the month.
I think people are gonna riot in far less than 3 months, they are gonna go out and work anyway because a 5% risk of dying is not more scary than literally losing their home and all their savings, i can't see a reality where people are gonna stay home for longer than another month or 2 (and 2 is already a stretch)
People are also loosing their jobs and house during these last weeks, staying at home for another 3 or more months is simply impossible, only rich people are gonna survive by that time.
Landlords and suppliers still wants their money at the end of the month.
I think people are gonna riot in far less than 3 months, they are gonna go out and work anyway because a 5% risk of dying is not more scary than literally losing their home and all their savings, i can't see a reality where people are gonna stay home for longer than another month or 2 (and 2 is already a stretch)
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TheSadRanger
Banned
Oh if people don't get some financial relief soon, and I mean next week soon. Then this shit could make the Rodney King Riots look like fucking Disneyland once May hits.
M1chl
Currently Gif and Meme Champion
NOIt won't ever go away, it's a flu virus. It isn't going anywhere. Eventually it will be routine in the yearly flu vaccinations people can opt for and we will just forget about it.
Over 30 years the flu has killed between 23,000 to 36,000 a year.
It's the fucking flu. Granted it easier to catch than most strains but it's still just the flu.
Tesseract
Banned
Kagey K
Banned
That is how it feels, and I feel worst for my kids. They can’t have the life we had.
Elektro Demon
Banned
I miss the good old denial days of it's just a flu bro.
E-Cat
Member
Yeah, way easier to catch and like 10x as lethal, but it's just "the flu". Do you realize that !!!even with the extreme quarantine measures!!! this thing is still gonna kill a minimum 100,000 Americans? When do we ever have restrictions like that in place for "just the flu"? And imagine what would happen if we didn't for COVID-19.It won't ever go away, it's a flu virus. It isn't going anywhere. Eventually it will be routine in the yearly flu vaccinations people can opt for and we will just forget about it.
Over 30 years the flu has killed between 23,000 to 36,000 a year.
It's the fucking flu. Granted it easier to catch than most strains but it's still just the flu.
I swear, some people are just thick in the head for not grasping this concept.
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MiyazakiHatesKojima
Banned
And here i was investing in PC Gaming only to be left financially broken with no job and a list of GOG and MAGOG games that I'll never end up finishing.
2020 is off to a terrible start!
Elektro Demon
Banned
There's gonna be less people on earth.
In 3 months this shit ends, hopefully.
Tesseract
Banned
probabilities
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darkinstinct
...lacks reading comprehension.
A long fucking time. Because that's what flattening the curve means. You avoid the implosion of the health systems like it happened in Wuhan and Lombardy, but the price you pay is that it takes months and months longer, because if you screw up, you end up with a rising curve again. Every country that is taking the "flatten the curve" approach will have restrictions for half a year or even longer. Basically everybody will be under lockdown until they can prove they have antibodies (aka were already infected), in that case they can live their life normally. Or that's how it should work. Realistically, you can't control everybody that is outside. So everybody will need to be locked in until the number of new infections reaches 0. And when new ones appear, everything needs to be shut down again.
mcz117chief
Member
Oh, there are still plenty of places where people pat themselves on the back saying that all them time. The offshoot of r/TheDonald, TheDonald.win, has turned into a cesspool where anything they hear from any kind of media is automatically labeled as "fake news" and bigotry against practically anyone is reaching leftist levels. TheDonald was fun but .win is just terrible. Over there if you mention how potentially deadly corona is you get downvoted to oblivion.
eot
Banned
Riots will surely help
JordanN
Banned
It looks like some cities/towns are prepared for this.
I saw a new pic of Toronto's Eaton Center but with cement blockades installed at the mall's entrance.
pel1300
Member
It seems like a very common opinion is that the sooner we end all these shutdowns the better....but people are afraid to say so publicly on social media for fear of being called selfish or lacking empathy.
my young friends are expressing how their future has just been doomed because most of them were self-employed and relied on their small business for income, and in person socializing for happiness. They just lost both of those 2 things that kept them happy. I've lost touch with over half of them already since they are not on social media anymore.
my young friends are expressing how their future has just been doomed because most of them were self-employed and relied on their small business for income, and in person socializing for happiness. They just lost both of those 2 things that kept them happy. I've lost touch with over half of them already since they are not on social media anymore.
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Codes 208
Member
I believe pandoras box has been opened here, i believe it’s here to stay but as a seasonal flair-up. It came quickly so we were unprepared but once summer comes along and the infection rate caps, i believe that’ll give us a breather before another round hits again this coming fall/winter.
I believe at some point this will just be another expected every-so-often vaccine shot like the others.
I believe at some point this will just be another expected every-so-often vaccine shot like the others.
HellforLeather
Member
It all depends on what your personal definition of "over" is. I agree with you, there is no way that the current lockdown status will stay the norm for more than a few more months tops.
If the question is how long is the virus going to continue to be an issue....until a vaccine is widely available so over a year.
synchronicity
Member
It's really an unknown. I mean, it could be a blip in retrospect, or the global society could be forever changed.
diffusionx
Gold Member
It's not 10x as lethal unless every single person who has caught it has been identified. But nobody, not even the most hysterical doomsayers, are saying that has happened. So obviously a lot more people have caught it than have been tested positive for it. In reality, doctors and the government are telling people with coronavirus-like symptoms to stay home and not infect other people and not go to the hospital unless they really need it. So all of those people might have the virus or might not, but they're definitely not dying from it.
Stop being hysterical.
E-Cat
Member
You also need to remember that there are probably a lot of deaths that are not currently attributed to coronavirus. It will take months for that data to be sorted out. Also, the CFR projections already take the "not every single person who has caught it has been identified" into account. The 1% estimate is on the lower end of the spectrum as it is.
Furthermore, the same argument applies to flu - there is no reason to believe that the COVID-19 CFR projections suffer more from this bias vs other diseases. That is, the flu may be even milder than people think - so, to say that COVID-19 is 10x more lethal than the flu even if the CFR were under 1% might still be accurate.
Thirdly, investors with a 'gambling mindset' latch onto figures like 0.66 or 0.5, etc., whatever sounds most hopeful. But the majority of scientists think it is above 1%, depending on the demographic sample, and availability of health facilities. In some countries it might be over 5%.
Fourthly, one way to gauge the true CFR is to count how many more deaths there are above the typical background count. Cuomo says NYC is now seeing more than twice as many COVID-19 deaths as all other deaths, combined. It shouldn't be difficult to turn that into percents.
(Chair of NYC Council Health Committee)
So, the undercount is massive in NYC, and the situation is more dire than has been reported in the media.
In fact, the daily official death toll in NYC for COVID-19 is under about 200 cases; so, this means that you have to double the official figures to get the true death toll! Also, things are not slowing down, but are getting worse. It won't slow down for a few more days -- maybe by Wednesday or Thursday things will start to look up for NYC.
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It did turn out that the virus ain't as deadly as predicted. Life should get back on track soon and the economy should normalize in a years time.Welp, it's been nearly a month and a half since I made this thread and the world has only gotten worse...
I guess this is going to be the new normal for the rest of the year. Or maybe forever.
I work in the oil industry... Usually I'd be in China these days but yeah
Chinese companies bounced back quick, are already making record profits in some sectors. The manufacturing of drill bits for example in the US has been halted or severely hindered while China upped production with some clients switching to them... And that's one of the smallest and trivial sectors in the oil industry.
Some of those who switched to chinese manufacturers are benifitting from temporarily adjusted temp import bonds which basically skip through some HTS policies. This isn't limited to the US.
I don't think we'll ever see an event like this repeat in our lifetime. Laws, especially ones governing world economics, haven't been this malleable in a while. By the end of all this certain individuals will be much, much richer.
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