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Startup claims it's created a robot that entirely replaces fast-food kitchen staff

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milanbaros

Member?
If you want to see how society will adapt to widespread automation just look at the past 250 years. Ultimately, new industries and jobs are created and automation and efficiency improvements simply lead to higher productivity and income.

I can almost guarantee that people were having the same discussion 200 years ago.
 

sans_pants

avec_pénis
If you want to see how society will adapt to widespread automation just look at the past 250 years. Ultimately, new industries and jobs are created and automation and efficiency improvements simply lead to higher productivity and income.

I can almost guarantee that people were having the same discussion 200 years ago.

yes, if it was as slow as it had always been it would be one thing. robots will be able to replace most human labor over the next 30-50 years, thats really fast. millions of jobs could be lost to automation in the next decade. tesla is using low cost robots to build its cars, every company that ships boxes can replace most of their staff, google could replace all transport jobs. in just the next decade(could not will, its gonna be a crazy ethics issue and people will probably be afraid of automatic cars for a while)
 

maharg

idspispopd
If you want to see how society will adapt to widespread automation just look at the past 250 years. Ultimately, new industries and jobs are created and automation and efficiency improvements simply lead to higher productivity and income.

I can almost guarantee that people were having the same discussion 200 years ago.

They did. And then there was a huge amount of upheaval and a whole lot of things in our society were forced to change. You wouldn't have liked working in one of the factories that popped up in the industrial revolution very much, I can guarantee you that.


yes, if it was as slow as it had always been it would be one thing. robots will be able to replace most human labor over the next 30-50 years, thats really fast. millions of jobs could be lost to automation in the next decade. tesla is using low cost robots to build its cars, every company that ships boxes can replace most of their staff, google could replace all transport jobs. in just the next decade(could not will, its gonna be a crazy ethics issue and people will probably be afraid of automatic cars for a while)

Eh, people have always predicted this kind of technological revolution is mere decades away. It's probably no more true now than it was a hundred years ago. But this sort of thing does reach tipping points along the way for sure.


--

Really the main thing that's kept jobs from automating for the last half century or so is the rapidly growing access to cheap foreign labour through free trade agreements. The service industry has managed to avoid this fate largely because you don't really have that labour pool available to man a store.
 

Tzeentch

Member
One of the largest social problems facing first-world countries these days is declining birth rates.
-- It's not entirely a social problem really, it's an economic problem (the two are very closely related, though). Declining working-age population stresses the existing social safety nets (fewer and fewer people paying for all those retirement benefits which is bad because most are ran like pyramid schemes) and means a decline in market size.
-- There's going to be all sorts of aftershocks from mass automation. It will be interesting ... the curse sort of interesting.
 

sans_pants

avec_pénis
They did. And then there was a huge amount of upheaval and a whole lot of things in our society were forced to change. You wouldn't have liked working in one of the factories that popped up in the industrial revolution very much, I can guarantee you that.




Eh, people have always predicted this kind of technological revolution is mere decades away. It's probably no more true now than it was a hundred years ago. But this sort of thing does reach tipping points along the way for sure.


--

Really the main thing that's kept jobs from automating for the last half century or so is the rapidly growing access to cheap foreign labour through free trade agreements. The service industry has managed to avoid this fate largely because you don't really have that labour pool available to man a store.

let me just say that i dont agree. googles self driving cars alone could put millions out of work and they will be in dealerships in less than a decade
 
T

Transhuman

Unconfirmed Member
moon-gerty202.jpg


"Would you like some hot sauce on your beans?"
 

Monocle

Member
For maximum efficiency, the robot should use former employees for the burgers.

(Have we made this joke yet?)
 

Zaptruder

Banned
Eh, people have always predicted this kind of technological revolution is mere decades away. It's probably no more true now than it was a hundred years ago. But this sort of thing does reach tipping points along the way for sure.

The timelines have been inaccurate... but the point is ultimately still valid.

Once automation (i.e. AI) tech is generalizable enough and cheap enough, it obviates the need for human labour.

The general conception of how this will go down is simply; 'lower skill' (i.e. easier to automate) jobs will go away first, until even high skill jobs have been replaced, rendering the labour of people unnecessary.

That said, 30-50 years from our current stand point is a fairly educated guess when accounting for technology acceleration. I know that's something that tech optimists say a lot... but we are are closing in on multiple vectors of a versatile, generalizable form of AI - either from a brute force emulation perspective, or several million cycles of complex evolutionary algorithms evolving AI, or via neural network modeling, or any other possible avenue from which to reach intelligence.

Obviously, the more optimistic the estimates are, the larger the margin of error - saying that cheap effective AI will be available within 100 years is almost an absolute definitive.

100 years of actual accelerated progress should encompass some 10,000+ current years of tech progress. It's difficult to imagine that we can't come up with hard AI in that time span when we're already coming up with headlines about Google search AI 'dreaming of cats' from the sampling of youtube videos.
 

maharg

idspispopd
I'm not aware of any reason to believe we're anywhere near close to some kind of generalizable AI. The state of the art in that area has barely moved for 30 years, benefiting almost entirely from increases in computational power. It will take algorithmic improvements to have actual AI and those haven't really been forthcoming.

AI in a much weaker, more domain specific, sense has been improving at leaps and bounds, but there's no reason to think that will translate into movement on truly learning systems.

I just want to be clear I don't think it's impossible, and I don't think it's permanently out of our reach, but I do think predictions of the singularity being close are basically like predictions of the fiat currency meltdown. No matter when you ask it's right around the corner because of X unpredictable process.
 

Reuenthal

Banned
The timelines have been inaccurate... but the point is ultimately still valid.

Once automation (i.e. AI) tech is generalizable enough and cheap enough, it obviates the need for human labour.

The general conception of how this will go down is simply; 'lower skill' (i.e. easier to automate) jobs will go away first, until even high skill jobs have been replaced, rendering the labour of people unnecessary.

That said, 30-50 years from our current stand point is a fairly educated guess when accounting for technology acceleration. I know that's something that tech optimists say a lot... but we are are closing in on multiple vectors of a versatile, generalizable form of AI - either from a brute force emulation perspective, or several million cycles of complex evolutionary algorithms evolving AI, or via neural network modeling, or any other possible avenue from which to reach intelligence.

Obviously, the more optimistic the estimates are, the larger the margin of error - saying that cheap effective AI will be available within 100 years is almost an absolute definitive.

100 years of actual accelerated progress should encompass some 10,000+ current years of tech progress. It's difficult to imagine that we can't come up with hard AI in that time span when we're already coming up with headlines about Google search AI 'dreaming of cats' from the sampling of youtube videos.

A scenario where things have reached the point where A.I is cheap and mass produced enough to be our labor and render almost all not A.I related labor unnecessary results probably in something like this: Humanity through both market results (obvious for something to be so mass produced) and goverment intervention also helping with distribution to humans controls the A.I slave labor. There will still be humans controlling robots and directing policy so maybe not entirely humans without labor, and inequality will still be there but it will be a competition between humans who own different numbers of automation in a society with a society high levels of production and wealth.

So far they don't rebel it is all good.

The biggest problem with the above scenario is if A.I has the same rights of humans then we would have a big issue probably. So we would need A.I that is advanced enough to do what we want but not advanced enough to be as good as humans at self awareness, and other issues that would make us want to grant it rights. It would be interesting issue if we can do that and how possible it is.

In short: we become owners of means of more cost effective than even people means of production rather than us being labor. Which allows more free time than the past and wealth.
 

FoxSpirit

Junior Member
The Wired's article's conclusion is so self referencing. What are we going to do once we don't battle in a quest for power? We will be like domestic animals!!

Bloody propaganda bullspeak, the constant power battle is one of the worst things in and for society.
 

CiSTM

Banned
Robots will never replace the low-end jobs lol. Keep living the dream.

Why not? Assembly line work is low-end job and it's diminishing at rapid rate. Casshier at conviniecn store is low-end job and every year there is more automated stores in the world.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Robots will never replace the low-end jobs lol. Keep living the dream.

....

They've already replaced many many "low-end" jobs over the last century. Are you joking? Manufacturing in particular has moved almost entirely to either robotic assembly lines or to workers overseas who are paid so little a robot in the US would form a union to fight getting paid (and thus aren't even low end). Even without AI.
 
The timelines have been inaccurate... but the point is ultimately still valid.

Once automation (i.e. AI) tech is generalizable enough and cheap enough, it obviates the need for human labour.

The general conception of how this will go down is simply; 'lower skill' (i.e. easier to automate) jobs will go away first, until even high skill jobs have been replaced, rendering the labour of people unnecessary.

Besides jobs involving creativity/expression, though I am sure Robots will eventually reach that as well.
 

Xun

Member
Considering what I've heard happens at fast-food restaurants this isn't an issue for me.

Faster potentially better food.
 

Mr Swine

Banned
So in the future, will every family own its own robot that is out and working? Meaning that a poor family has one robot, a middle income family has 2-3 and a rich family has between 5-50 of them
 

Zaptruder

Banned
Besides jobs involving creativity/expression, though I am sure Robots will eventually reach that as well.

Even though I'm sure they'll be able to do a better job of it eventually, I think we might want to make the job of creation/expression the domain of humanity (outside of AI generated curios) - simply so that we can maintain some degree of meaning and function in a life where everything is taken care for us.

The conception is to essentially turn is into virtual gods (literally, gods within the virtual realm; creating things and making them interact per our intentions) while AI takes care of the daily maintenance of our world.

It's like the technologist equivalent of been a mormon.
 

Dambrosi

Banned
And with this, a lot of jobs will be gone, but this is the future.
Exactly. That's why I laugh so heartily at conservatives who tell unemployed people like myself to "get a job" as if it were that easy. And, with both increased outsourcing and advancements like this (and they are advancements, whether they take people's jerbs or not), things are going to get even worse for those of us looking for work in the decades to come. Welcome to the future - there's gonna be a lot more of us around.

Shit Happens, that's why we have insurance. Austrian economics can suck my big fat chubby.
 

Zaptruder

Banned
A scenario where things have reached the point where A.I is cheap and mass produced enough to be our labor and render almost all not A.I related labor unnecessary results probably in something like this: Humanity through both market results (obvious for something to be so mass produced) and goverment intervention also helping with distribution to humans controls the A.I slave labor. There will still be humans controlling robots and directing policy so maybe not entirely humans without labor, and inequality will still be there but it will be a competition between humans who own different numbers of automation in a society with a society high levels of production and wealth.

So far they don't rebel it is all good.

The biggest problem with the above scenario is if A.I has the same rights of humans then we would have a big issue probably. So we would need A.I that is advanced enough to do what we want but not advanced enough to be as good as humans at self awareness, and other issues that would make us want to grant it rights. It would be interesting issue if we can do that and how possible it is.

In short: we become owners of means of more cost effective than even people means of production rather than us being labor. Which allows more free time than the past and wealth.

While AI can be designed to be human like with respect to their rights; it would have to be an explicit concerted effort to do so in my opinion.

That is, we have the rights we do because we have a unique set of circumstances that involve things like cognitive capacity, pain, suffering, emotions, etc.

We don't have to build any of the shitty things into an AI - their concept of wrong doesn't have to be laden with things like guilt, pain, sorrow - it can simply be; do less of it. Similarly, they can have other cognition resolution (i.e. in case of conflicting rules) mechanisms outside of the limbic system that we use (our emotional center).

What I'm saying is... intelligence doesn't necessarily have to exist with the burdens of the system that emerged in the context of a biological system that needs to achieve a certain homoeostatic balance with its environment. Intelligence can exist independently of the human condition.
 

Zaptruder

Banned
I'm not aware of any reason to believe we're anywhere near close to some kind of generalizable AI. The state of the art in that area has barely moved for 30 years, benefiting almost entirely from increases in computational power. It will take algorithmic improvements to have actual AI and those haven't really been forthcoming.

AI in a much weaker, more domain specific, sense has been improving at leaps and bounds, but there's no reason to think that will translate into movement on truly learning systems.

I just want to be clear I don't think it's impossible, and I don't think it's permanently out of our reach, but I do think predictions of the singularity being close are basically like predictions of the fiat currency meltdown. No matter when you ask it's right around the corner because of X unpredictable process.

It certainly hasn't progressed as fast as we'd hope... but this statement is quite far from my admittedly limited understanding of the field. Are you able to elaborate more on this opinion?

Personally, the domain specific advancements are part and parcel of a more generalizable intelligence solution - not unlike our own human evolution, where organisms with basic motor and sensory capacities had to evolve before they could start to develop the additional cognitive nuances of the neo-cortex.

If nothing else, it's certainly possible to conceive of 'crowd sourced intelligence' - an AI system by which people can edit and refine the behaviour of functional labour saving robots - which have certain basic capacities including object/image recognition and physical understanding of the world (i.e. has a physics model and a method for interacting with that model, that it uses to predict its behaviour relative to its environment)... to start the crowd sourcing excitement with.

Such a robot would go a long way towards eliminating menial labour jobs.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Besides jobs involving creativity/expression, though I am sure Robots will eventually reach that as well.

Maybe the more mechanical aspects, but the actual creative aspects would have a different quality to human produced stuff so I doubt would really replace human production.


It certainly hasn't progressed as fast as we'd hope... but this statement is quite far from my admittedly limited understanding of the field. Are you able to elaborate more on this opinion?

Personally, the domain specific advancements are part and parcel of a more generalizable intelligence solution - not unlike our own human evolution, where organisms with basic motor and sensory capacities had to evolve before they could start to develop the additional cognitive nuances of the neo-cortex.

If nothing else, it's certainly possible to conceive of 'crowd sourced intelligence' - an AI system by which people can edit and refine the behaviour of functional labour saving robots - which have certain basic capacities including object/image recognition and physical understanding of the world (i.e. has a physics model and a method for interacting with that model, that it uses to predict its behaviour relative to its environment)... to start the crowd sourcing excitement with.

Such a robot would go a long way towards eliminating menial labour jobs.

I don't think you really need a generalized AI to replace menial labour jobs, so this really is kind of getting off on a tangent. But the point is that while we can improve the mechanical aspects of 'intelligence' with faster and faster computers, it's the leap to a system that can improve itself that really defines a generalized AI, and the goal of all AI research. And, quite simply, no one really knows how to make that leap.

As an example, the google car isn't better at driving than a human because it's more creative or more able to deal with nuanced or new situations. It's better at driving almost entirely because it can simply take in more information and react to it faster. The rules by which it operates are still inherently constrained to those its programmers have designed it to handle (in scope as well as complexity).

And it's sensor, battery, memory, and processing technology that has made it a more viable technology in 2012 than it might have been in the renaissance of AI back in the 80s.
 

Zaptruder

Banned
I don't think you really need a generalized AI to replace menial labour jobs, so this really is kind of getting off on a tangent. But the point is that while we can improve the mechanical aspects of 'intelligence' with faster and faster computers, it's the leap to a system that can improve itself that really defines a generalized AI, and the goal of all AI research. And, quite simply, no one really knows how to make that leap.

As an example, the google car isn't better at driving than a human because it's more creative or more able to deal with nuanced or new situations. It's better at driving almost entirely because it can simply take in more information and react to it faster. The rules by which it operates are still inherently constrained to those its programmers have designed it to handle (in scope as well as complexity).

And it's sensor, battery, memory, and processing technology that has made it a more viable technology in 2012 than it might have been in the renaissance of AI back in the 80s.

I get what you're saying... but it's kinda downplaying just how important 'brute force' is to intelligence.

After all, AIs wouldn't be able to drive cars if they weren't able to 'react' (read; process millions of factors and variables) sufficiently fast enough.

Similarly... much of human intelligence is basically a case of contextual, intersecting rules of thumbs (i.e. rote memorized solutions from learning and observation) on a massively parallel scale.

Even our new ideas boil down to that; we consider a problem, and use existing principles/rules of thumbs to derive a new solution.

The trick to human intelligence then is the massive computational power inherent in massive parallelism.

With increased computing power, we are better able to simulate such massive parallelisations (like with the Google learning net that conceived of the cat); something that we simply couldn't do before even if we knew how to. With said increased computing power, we are able to practically iterate and refine on design hypothesis that will allow for the emergence of practical intelligence machines.

Assuming the trend of increasing computational power holds true; we'll have the computing capacity of a human brain in a mobile sized device around 2035 (IIRC). If even a fraction of that computing power goes into simulating and designing various intelligence systems, it seems that even if we don't arrive at an insight to recreating intelligence, we'll brute force some sort of solution to generalized intelligence (especially when all the other various modules of intelligence are more built up and accessible).
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Low wage jobs like these are supposed to be an entry into the workforce for 16-20 year olds. Fortunately, due to our sparkling economy, they are also jobs for people with families to feed. Sigh.

There's other markets for lower skilled labor that could be filled. But this wouldn't be a big problem if our government corrected the education bubble and heavily subsidized both college level and technician level education, with emphasis on STEM.

All of the political talk of trying to win over last century's jobs from emerging 1st world nations is crazy talk. That would lower our standard of living. People in 1900 may have said "we gots to get that postal office and farming jerbs back" but they too were crazy.
 

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
I think Zaptruder is really bringing up interesting advancements in AI when he talks about Google's recent neural network experiment - not only because of the level of... intelligence, I guess, that it shows (being able to self categorize patterns visually, and label them, is pretty amazing) but it's interesting because it's not vapour - the experiment's results are being directly applied to their products. They've already recently integrated neural networks into speech recognition to increase the accuracy dramatically (I think it was 25%), and they're looking to implement it in picture recognition soon as well.

I'm assuming they'll be using it for character recognition as well. Which, I gather, might have some impact on data entry if it becomes accurate enough.
 
T

Transhuman

Unconfirmed Member
Exactly.
The sort of heavy capitalist societal structure you currently have in the United States will just result in most technological progress benefiting the very rich at the cost of the plebians.

A dollar inherited is a dollar earned, right?
 

sans_pants

avec_pénis
Maybe the more mechanical aspects, but the actual creative aspects would have a different quality to human produced stuff so I doubt would really replace human production.

theres no reason they cant learn some stuff. music is basically patterns, screenwriting has a formula, etc
 

Kinitari

Black Canada Mafia
Update:
Interesting - apparently they're considering opening their own chain, and are looking at what the "2.0" version of said robot will be able to do

http://momentummachines.com/concepts/
http://foodbeast.com/content/2012/11/16/heres-a-look-at-the-worlds-first-smart-restaurant-chain-kitchen-free-and-run-by-robots-2/

Our next revision will offer custom meat grinds for every single customer. Want a patty with 1/3 pork and 2/3 bison ground after you place your order? No problem.
Also, our next revision will use gourmet cooking techniques never before used in a fast food restaurant, giving the patty the perfect char but keeping in all the juices.

They talk about how there will be pretty much no wait times, kitchen staff and how the robot needs a lot less room to work, giving more room for customers to chill in.

Refinement6-11-1024x446.jpg
 
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