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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Fixed1979

Member
For the folks discussing AMD.

http://www.mideasttime.com/advanced-micro-devices-given-buy-rating-at-jefferies-group-amd-2/21919/

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by equities research analysts at Jefferies Group in a research note issued to investorson Wednesday, StockRatingsNetwork reports. They currently have a $5.00 price target on the stock.

A number of other firms have also recently commented on AMD. Analysts at Raymond James raised their price target on shares of Advanced Micro Devices from $3.00 to $5.00 in a research note to investors on Tuesday. They now have an “outperform” rating on the stock. Separately, analysts at UBS AG raised their EPS on shares of Advanced Micro Devices in a research note to investors on Monday. They now have a “neutral” rating and a $4.50 price target on the stock. They previously had a $2.75 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded shares of Advanced Micro Devices from a “neutral” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note to investors on Thursday, May 16th. They now have a $2.50 price target on the stock.

Six investment analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, seventeen have given a hold rating and four have given a buy rating to the stock. The stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $3.56.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) opened at 4.02 on Wednesday. Advanced Micro Devices has a one year low of $1.81 and a one year high of $6.46. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently $3.05. The company’s market cap is $2.872 billion.

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, April 18th. The company reported ($0.13) earnings per share for the quarter, beating the analysts’ consensus estimate of ($0.17) by $0.04. The company had revenue of $1.09 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.05 billion. During the same quarter last year, the company posted $0.12 earnings per share. Advanced Micro Devices’s revenue was down 31.4% compared to the same quarter last year. Analysts expect that Advanced Micro Devices will post $-0.26 EPS for the current fiscal year.
 
An adult read on the current stock market situation.

This is a good read, especially if you're invested in the stock market or thinking about buying stocks. The market is so volatile right now so there's so much uncertainty. I've been hesitant to buy stock because of this reason. However, I recently bought DXJ since Japan is trying to boost their economy and I've really been studying yahoo stock. I have a lot of confidence in their new CEO.

What are your thoughts on the direction of the stock markets?
 

Piecake

Member
An adult read on the current stock market situation.

This is a good read, especially if you're invested in the stock market or thinking about buying stocks. The market is so volatile right now so there's so much uncertainty. I've been hesitant to buy stock because of this reason. However, I recently bought DXJ since Japan is trying to boost their economy and I've really been studying yahoo stock. I have a lot of confidence in their new CEO.

What are your thoughts on the direction of the stock markets?

Short term, no idea. Long term, it will go up. Basically the reason why i invest in index funds
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
TAN (solar ETF) has been going up almost 100% in a few months. I got burned before on solar so I'm not buying any, but at least an ETF wouldn't be like buying stocks of a company that ends up going bankrupt:p

Still in the process of rebalancing my portfolio towards ETFs. Waiting on AAPL and CAT to pick up to sell either or both and transfer that money to ETFs.

I really wish there was some 3D Printing ETF out there, there's just too few 3D printing companies.
 

awm8604

Banned
It's amazing how directly the Fed is propping this market up. Any whiff of the money printing being reduced and it drops. Not healthy at all.
 

Piecake

Member
Agreed.

Although I'm not as heavy in index funds as Piecake is (mostly because I have "fun" hand-picking some stocks), index funds really are the best (in terms of price vs. risk) long-term investments, and I see no reason why they'll fail, if you give them enough time.

I actually do have a small percentage of my portfolio allocated for fun stock picks. Once they become long-term gains, I am going to get rid of the though. I don't find them all that fun anymore
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Man I really want to put a bit of money in TAN. We're starting to see solar in consumer products (attached to your backpack to recharge your laptop/tablet/phone wherever you are, even when camping). It seems like the right time, but damnit the price already went up so much.
 

Piecake

Member
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/business/for-stock-picking-advice-dont-ask-an-economist.html

Nothing really new, but a good synopsis of why you should invest in index funds by Greg Mankiw (Im sure we all read his economics boks in college)

I used to believe in market efficiency, but right now I am leaning towards 'animal spirits' now. Not really how you can call it efficient anymore when it gets wrecked by bubbles constantly and stock prices can fluctuate so much on short term earnings reports or bombs, or whatever.
 

RevoDS

Junior Member
I used to believe in market efficiency, but right now I am leaning towards 'animal spirits' now. Not really how you can call it efficient anymore when it gets wrecked by bubbles constantly and stock prices can fluctuate so much on short term earnings reports or bombs, or whatever.

Yeah, the efficient markets hypothesis doesn't really hold any water when you see such irrational moves.

As far as explaining how markets work over different time frames, I really like Buffett's explanation that in the short term, it's a voting machine that goes up and down with the votes of fickle investors, but in the long term, it's a weighing machine that always ends up going back to the asset's true value in the end.

It may not be useful for investing in specific way, but it goes a long way towards explaining the market's overall behavior.
 

Piecake

Member
Yeah, the efficient markets hypothesis doesn't really hold any water when you see such irrational moves.

As far as explaining how markets work over different time frames, I really like Buffett's explanation that in the short term, it's a voting machine that goes up and down with the votes of fickle investors, but in the long term, it's a weighing machine that always ends up going back to the asset's true value in the end.

It may not be useful for investing in specific way, but it goes a long way towards explaining the market's overall behavior.

Yea, I basically agree with that. And is pretty much the main reason why I dont invest for the short term, but invest in index funds for the long term. I think investing in a few companies long term is just really difficult to do because while things might look great for long term growth now, it can change 5-10 years.
 
Short term, no idea. Long term, it will go up. Basically the reason why i invest in index funds

Can you tell me a little more about index funds. Are you referring to index mutual funds or ETFs?

I'm investing pretty heavily into index funds for my retirement plan through work. I'm also thinking of starting putting my cash savings into index funds as well. It seems like a better place than the 0.8% interest it's collection right now.

What is the cost of purchasing ETFs? Is it just like buying common stock? Any recurring fees for owning/holding ETFs?

Edit:
Currently eyeing SPY and VOO.
 

Piecake

Member
Can you tell me a little more about index funds. Are you referring to index mutual funds or ETFs?

I'm investing pretty heavily into index funds for my retirement plan through work. I'm also thinking of starting putting my cash savings into index funds as well. It seems like a better place than the 0.8% interest it's collection right now.

What is the cost of purchasing ETFs? Is it just like buying common stock? Any recurring fees for owning/holding ETFs?

I use mutual funds, but etfs are the same basically. The only difference between a mutual fund and an etf is the method of buying and selling.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsSnapshot?FundId=0085&FundIntExt=INT

See, the fund has it in an etf form or admiral shares (mutual fund with more money)

You by ETFs like a stock, so there is a trading fee. However, if your brokerage is Vanguard, you can buy their ETFs for free, and so long as you sign up for electric mail, you wont incur any other account fees.

Personally, I prefer funds because it is easier to dollar cost average and its easier to buy and sell since I can just put in how much money i want to buy and it will do it at the end of the day. I dont have to worry about brokerage accounts, limit orders and all of that other crap. I really don't care about getting it at the lowest price during the day anyway because that will not matter at all over the long haul.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Video:Bogleheads®_investment_philosophy

These videos are excellent. I would watch these. It doesnt tell you about etf versus mutual funds, but its just a good overview of index fund philosophy

I would just open an account at vanguard and go from there. If you want to do etfs, youll have to go one step further and open a brokerage account, but its not that big of a deal.

As for cash savings, thats a bit tricky since bond returns are so pathetically low. Short-term bond index fund is a good place to stick your emergency fund if you dont want it sitting in the bank. I don't know if id put my EF in stocks. Of course, I am not a believer in the 6 month emergency fund either. I have a few thousand for my EF and felt perfectly fine. I can get to oher money if I absolutely need to since its not all in retirement accounts

As for what funds, I am personally a fan of

Vanguard total Stock Market
Vanguard Total International Market
Vanguard Total Bond market

Lowest expense ratio around and you track the whole world market. Well, you miss out on international bonds, but whateves. Dont think id trust an international bond fund.
 
I use mutual funds, but etfs are the same basically. The only difference between a mutual fund and an etf is the method of buying and selling.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsSnapshot?FundId=0085&FundIntExt=INT

See, the fund has it in an etf form or admiral shares (mutual fund with more money)

You by ETFs like a stock, so there is a trading fee. However, if your brokerage is Vanguard, you can buy their ETFs for free, and so long as you sign up for electric mail, you wont incur any other account fees.

Personally, I prefer funds because it is easier to dollar cost average and its easier to buy and sell since I can just put in how much money i want to buy and it will do it at the end of the day. I dont have to worry about brokerage accounts, limit orders and all of that other crap. I really don't care about getting it at the lowest price during the day anyway because that will not matter at all over the long haul.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Video:Bogleheads®_investment_philosophy

These videos are excellent. I would watch these. It doesnt tell you about etf versus mutual funds, but its just a good overview of index fund philosophy

I would just open an account at vanguard and go from there. If you want to do etfs, youll have to go one step further and open a brokerage account, but its not that big of a deal.

As for cash savings, thats a bit tricky since bond returns are so pathetically low. Short-term bond index fund is a good place to stick your emergency fund if you dont want it sitting in the bank. I don't know if id put my EF in stocks. Of course, I am not a believer in the 6 month emergency fund either. I have a few thousand for my EF and felt perfectly fine. I can get to oher money if I absolutely need to since its not all in retirement accounts

As for what funds, I am personally a fan of

Vanguard total Stock Market
Vanguard Total International Market
Vanguard Total Bond market

Lowest expense ratio around and you track the whole world market. Well, you miss out on international bonds, but whateves. Dont think id trust an international bond fund.

WOW! Thank you! That was a lot more than I expected. I'm humbly grateful.

I feel stupid asking this but what do you mean by "EF"?
 

Piecake

Member
I assume "EF" means "emergency funds," or, the money you keep on-hand to support you/your family in case you lose your job suddenly or have some other immediate and unexpected expense. The money in your EF should generally be easily accessible (e.g., in a savings account or something else very liquid) and not in something hard to access, such as having a stockpile of gold or something. Most people suggest having enough money in your EF to be able to support you and your family for at least 6 months.

That's my assumption as to what he means, anyway.

Yup. Got lazy and just went emergency fund - EF

Like I said, I am personally not a fan of the 6 months of expenses sitting in your bank doing jack shit. Thats a crap ton of money doing nothing! Its not like you are going to need it all at one point anyway. I think a month is plenty so long as you can actually get to more money if you need it (taxable account)
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
More and more I have taken to looking at my Roth IRA as my emergency fund. Better there in a fund accruing interest but still relatively easy to remove the principal if disaster strikes.

Our expenses are pretty low so UI would handle job loss in most cases.
 

Piecake

Member
More and more I have taken to looking at my Roth IRA as my emergency fund. Better there in a fund accruing interest but still relatively easy to remove the principal if disaster strikes.

Our expenses are pretty low so UI would handle job loss in most cases.

Ive heard this before, but I never understood it. Can you actually put the principal back in if you are forced to take it out without penalty or subject to yearly caps? If so, that sounds great. If not, I definitely wouldnt do it because building up the amount of your Roth is pretty important

This is a pretty hilarious article

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57586105/a-statistical-look-at-jim-cramers-skill-level/

Being a numbers guy, I couldn't resist calculating the odds of making four sell recommendations on what ends up being the four best performers out of 749 different stocks. Can we have a drum roll? The odds are 1 in 13.1 billion. By comparison, the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are much better at 1 in 175 million, or 75 times more likely to happen than picking four stocks that poorly. Thus, picking the four best performers as stocks to sell is the next closest thing to being statistically impossible.

lol. and yea, its selective, blah blah blah, but still hilarious
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Ive heard this before, but I never understood it. Can you actually put the principal back in if you are forced to take it out without penalty or subject to yearly caps? If so, that sounds great. If not, I definitely wouldnt do it because building up the amount of your Roth is pretty important
You can re contribute, but it has to be fast, I don't remember the cutoff,so there is certainly risk. But if your choice is 5 k rotting in savings or 5k in the Roth accruing interest I would choose the latter

You are out the principal if you have to tap the emergency find either way. But if an emergency doesn't happen you are taking advantage of your money in the meantime.
 

Septimius

Junior Member
TAN (solar ETF) has been going up almost 100% in a few months. I got burned before on solar so I'm not buying any, but at least an ETF wouldn't be like buying stocks of a company that ends up going bankrupt:p

Still in the process of rebalancing my portfolio towards ETFs. Waiting on AAPL and CAT to pick up to sell either or both and transfer that money to ETFs.

I really wish there was some 3D Printing ETF out there, there's just too few 3D printing companies.

the AAPL stock seems uncertain about where to go next. Just know that this might be as an opportuned time as can come in 6 months if it does decide to continue downwards. We're nearing the bottom of the shoulder-head, but I doubt it'll gain any big momentum over the next year, really.
 
the AAPL stock seems uncertain about where to go next. Just know that this might be as an opportuned time as can come in 6 months if it does decide to continue downwards. We're nearing the bottom of the shoulder-head, but I doubt it'll gain any big momentum over the next year, really.

The key question is what are the market opportunities for Apple? How can they sell more music? More apps? More devices?

The tablet and phone space is practically a zero-sum market. If you own an Android phone, you probably don't own an Apple phone as well and vice versa.

All trends show that Android is growing its marketshare, which means that Apple's opportunities are declining.

If they compete on price, they will start to lose their high margins.

What about innovation and driving new demand? The question is what do they have -- besides a flat UI in iOS7 -- to draw users back or add new users?

It will have some more ups and downs, but the long term trend doesn't look good in my amateur analysis.
 

Septimius

Junior Member
The key question is what are the market opportunities for Apple? How can they sell more music? More apps? More devices?

The tablet and phone space is practically a zero-sum market. If you own an Android phone, you probably don't own an Apple phone as well and vice versa.

All trends show that Android is growing its marketshare, which means that Apple's opportunities are declining.

If they compete on price, they will start to lose their high margins.

What about innovation and driving new demand? The question is what do they have -- besides a flat UI in iOS7 -- to draw users back or add new users?

It will have some more ups and downs, but the long term trend doesn't look good in my amateur analysis.

These are good questions. They're the questions Apple are asking themselves. And they see that they need to
1) create a new space to occupy
2) be creative in the space they have to remain relevant there

They'll try too hard, and won't be able to succeed. At least for the next full year. Maybe 2015 they'll become relevant in whatever the world has come to then.

This is just further backed up by technical analysis that suggest Apple's next top will come in 4 years, 5 years after the last major top. Then you have the joker of maybe the success came from mr Jobs' ideas. In which case, abandon ship.
 

East Lake

Member
Yeah, the efficient markets hypothesis doesn't really hold any water when you see such irrational moves.

As far as explaining how markets work over different time frames, I really like Buffett's explanation that in the short term, it's a voting machine that goes up and down with the votes of fickle investors, but in the long term, it's a weighing machine that always ends up going back to the asset's true value in the end.

It may not be useful for investing in specific way, but it goes a long way towards explaining the market's overall behavior.
Heh. I'm reading Security Analysis, 2nd Edition. Pretty sure this is where he got that analogy.

But the stock market itself has no time for such scientific scruples. It must make its values first and find its reasons afterwards. Its position is much like that of a jury in a breach-of-promise suit; there is no sound way of measuring the values involved, and yet they must be measured somehow and a verdict rendered. Hence the prices of common stocks are not carefully thought out computations but the resultants of a welter of human reactions. The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
So over the course of my annual rebalancing in January and February, I really read up on index funds, sinking a lot of time into Boglehead's site. After yet another month when the market as a whole did a lot better than the mutual funds in our ROTH, I just shifted most of our funds into Fidelity's Total Market Index.

I'm going to shift to largely index funds over the course of the next few months as I iron out the balance and how to manage the kids college funds and such, to include some bond and international exposure.

We're also going to cap the amount of company stock we have now, and start using additional shares earned at work to partially fund our ROTH IRAs. That way we can reduce the monthly contributions, and start contributing to the ROTH 401(k) at work. Essentially shifting from company stock in a personal account to a Roth, holding the market index. From one end of the diversification spectrum to the other. :lol

I think I'm done picking and choosing, for good. Just going to let them ride for the next 20 years.
 
Question about junk bonds.

When people say that a corporate takeover, for example, was financed by junk bonds, they're referring to the capital the hostile corporation received from investors who paid for those junk bonds that the corporation issued, correct?
 

toxicgonzo

Taxes?! Isn't this the line for Metallica?
Shares of video game purveyors Zynga (ZNGA) were halted on Nasdaq shortly before the company announced that it will lay off 18% of its staff, or 520 people, and take pre-tax charges of $24 million to $26 million this quarter, and upwards of $5 million in Q3, to cut expenses by as much as $80 million annually.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/06/03/znga-haltedcuts-staff-18-sees-deeper-q2-net-loss/?mod=yahoobarrons

As someone who had a short position on Zynga, this irritates me. I knew this company had no fundamentals!

Edit: ZNGA has resumed and is now dropping
 

CrankyJay

Banned
I cannot imagine anyone would buy them. Their IPs haven't proved to be lucrative beyond a single game (see: FarmVille 2 or whatever it was called) and they're still far too bloated and costly for what they do provide. When a company like Majesco is available for pennies on the dollar compared to Zynga, and Majesco also has at least a few worthwhile IPs and licenses (Zumba, Cooking Mama), it just doesn't make any sense.

Interesting.

I thought Words With Friends was doing well.
 
Question about junk bonds.

When people say that a corporate takeover, for example, was financed by junk bonds, they're referring to the capital the hostile corporation received from investors who paid for those junk bonds that the corporation issued, correct?

It sounds like the company that took over the other raised funds by issuing junk bonds, and used the proceeds to acquire the target company stock with the cash. In this environment there is little penalty for leveraging up to the tilt to buy equity.
 

RevoDS

Junior Member
Interesting.

I thought Words With Friends was doing well.
Thing is, even if a particular mobile game is successful, Zynga is running into the same problems as Facebook does: less screen real estate means fewer ads, which in turn means less money for each user.

It takes significantly more mobile users to amount to the same revenue as a game you'd play on a PC, and Zynga just isn't seeing that user growth.

Although one could make a fair case that in-game purchases don't decrease between the two formats (that data isn't made public by the company) and helps lessen the impact from the loss of advertising dollars, it is extremely unlikely that it completely makes up for it.

Consider the accounting gimmick Zynga used by decreasing the amortization period of users' purchases (thus booking more money each month than last year for an equivalent sale). That, to me, shows a company that is desperate to show some growth it simply doesn't have.

Unless its upcoming games do shockingly well and much better than its current roster, I see Zynga as having peaked in the short to mid-term revenue-wise.
 

Piecake

Member
Resisting The Temptation To 'Win' When Investing

"Most of the people who are trying harder are actually hurting themselves," he says.

When Americans invest in the stock market, it's usually through mutual funds. There are two varieties: actively traded funds, where an investment manager and his team try to pick winning stocks, and index funds, which passively mimic a benchmark like the S&P 500. Ellis says those actively traded funds are a bad bet.

"Candidly, the data's very disturbing. Comfortably more than half [of funds] over any reasonable 12-month period fall short of the target they choose for themselves," he says. But if you say a year is not long enough, over 10 years it rises to 70 percent. "While the data gets pretty thin, by the time you get it out to 20 years, it gets even worse. ... Somewhere around 80 percent fall short," he says.

For Ellis, this is a crucial point. A significant majority of funds that rely on managers to make trades do worse than passive index funds. And those active funds that happen to shine for a few years, you can't be sure they'll do it again in the future. The Warren Buffetts of the world are rare, and I'm not one of them. That's why Ellis is telling me not to try to beat the market.

"It's not that you can't," he says. "It's that you won't." The odds, he says, are stacked against me. The stacking comes from something called the expense ratio. It's the annual fee the fund charges you for the manager's salary and various administrative costs.


The Perils Of High Fees

"People pay way too much attention to past returns and way too little attention to the fees," says Terrance Odean, a finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business. While fees for actively managed funds have been coming down, they still charge almost 1 percent a year on average. Average fees for index funds are much more modest — just over one-tenth of a percent. Over the long haul, in a retirement account those higher fees can cost an investor tens of thousands of dollars.

"One thing about fees is [that] high fees this year almost always means high fees next year," Odean says. "In fact, you know what your fees are going to be next year. But high performance this year doesn't really tell you much about next year's performance."
 
I got in a while ago, and was planning to "top up" a bit last week, but was waiting for it to drop below $19 again before I did...now I'm not sure, I expect a bit of a fall back as it's risen so drastically over the past few days, if it gets below 20 or 21 again I'll dump some more into it.

I had planned on holding for 1 year, but wasn't anticipating such a quick spike.

Well.... Now's your time!

Fuuuck. Still holding on for the long haul. That's usually what people say ("It'll pick up!") when they're too scared to back out with losses, but in this case that was always my plan, so I'll stick to it.

Edit: For those unprivvy to our more or less private conversation here, we're talking about SNE.
 

Ecotic

Member
Well.... Now's your time!

Fuuuck. Still holding on for the long haul. That's usually what people say ("It'll pick up!") when they're too scared to back out with losses, but in this case that was always my plan, so I'll stick to it.

Edit: For those unprivvy to our more or less private conversation here, we're talking about SNE.
If there's a stock I want more of, it's Sony.

When you guys buy foreign stock, do you prefer the American Depository Receipt way, or to go straight for the stock on its native exchange?
 

evergoo

Neo Member
If there's a stock I want more of, it's Sony.

When you guys buy foreign stock, do you prefer the American Depository Receipt way, or to go straight for the stock on its native exchange?

Not seeing what's attractive about SNE. Extremely high P/E, low dividend yield, lacking wide economic moat in any of their businesses, and I'm pretty sure the PS4 is sold at a loss. *Shrugs*
 
Do you guys use your good knowledge from following the video games industry to invest/trade/short the stocks of game companies ?

The problem is that video game companies rarely have spikes where all of the sudden you can make tons of money off them. It is possible to pop in and make 10-15% but its a risk.

I think Nintendo is probably the most interesting video game stock right now. It is trading around all time lows, but they still have great cash flow and a never ending stable of games they could potentially draw from. Sometimes their ASK screws everything up, but right now it is ok. There is money to be made there for the brave.
 
Not seeing what's attractive about SNE. Extremely high P/E, low dividend yield, lacking wide economic moat in any of their businesses, and I'm pretty sure the PS4 is sold at a loss. *Shrugs*

Had I bought in when it hit the low of $9 in December, I would have more than doubled my money by now.

I thought about buying in when it hit $15 shortly before the PS4 announcement too.

Fucking goddammit fuck. My instincts told me to buy in, and I didn't listen to them. Next time I won't fuck around. No one could have predicted that Sony would just skullfuck MS this E3 but even a lackluster PS4 presentation at E3 would have made a potential investment earlier this year worthwhile.
 

giga

Member
Any opinions on online brokerages? Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.? Vanguard seems to have lower expense ratios for their index funds. The higher minimum investment ($3000) isn't a problem.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
If you are buying vanguard funds just go vanguard. No fees to buy their funds or ETFs, and no yearly fee with minimum OR with electronic statements.

Edit: If you are buying stocks just pick whatever you want with the most reasonable trading fees.
 

giga

Member
If you are buying vanguard funds just go vanguard. No fees to buy their funds or ETFs, and no yearly fee with minimum OR with electronic statements.

Edit: If you are buying stocks just pick whatever you want with the most reasonable trading fees.
Hm, really? I thought they do have a $20 annual fee. Ok scratch that, I see that it's waived on electronic statements!

I don't really have any fund preferences, but I often see their total stock market index recommended, so I was interested in that.
 
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