Support NeoGAF

[Piecake]

Thanks for the advice guys.

i do not know that much about ETFs, but I would prefer to handle it myself rather than just piggyback on someone else's work. I just want to learn the ins and outs of investing and do not mind not making a profit the next couple of years because of taxes and commissions. I would just like to try my hand and see if it something I can start putting more money into a couple years down the road.

@RevoDS, thanks for the advice about Sony. i did not know about point 1. I have been reading that Sony phone business in now becoming more profitable and has good margins.

I know Kaz also has a grand plan for 4k, which will see them stream there studio content to 4k boxes that can only connect to their 4k tvs.

@FlashFlooder thanks for the tip too. I actually live in SK saw would have to watch the American market for rescission too. I do not mind the extra work and time needed to watch the different markets.


Also guys, i wonder if you could help me on my strategy.

I have been looking at stocks that have seen a fall in is stock price in the last 12 months and then been looking and the causes and whether it was down to poor management and can be turned around, and if it was caused by external reasons. I am then studying all the financials and reading the reports.

I am then making my judgement based on whether the company is run well and has a good team that can turn it around and ha had solid financials except for one blip. And also if the external reasons should see an improvement and return the stock to near its previous worth.

An example: One company I am looking at is Anglo American. It was trading at around $17 dollars at the beginning of the year and is now at around $12. the dip in share price is down to the fall in mineral prices that have seen all mining stocks fall. But from what I can tell it is a well run company and next year will see them start outputting from their big Brazilian mining project. It has seen steady improvements since its 52 week low in early July.

Is my strategy a sound one?

Any pointers would be appreciated.

Well, I would definitely consider index investing if I were you. Unlike actively managed mutual funds, you will not be piggy-backing on to someone elses work. These funds follow an index.

For example, an SP 500 fund follows the top 500 companies in america. It does this without a manager and that keeps fees (super important) insanely low. A Total Stock market fund follows the entire American stock market. Or you could even follow a total world stock, which invests in, well, basically all the world's compaines (I am sure they are missing a few).

The issue with investing 1000 bucks is that you will not be diversified. thats super important. Investing in many companies is a lot less risky than investing in one company. Investing in one of the above ETfs will give you instant diversification. And you'll probably have to go with ETFs instead of a mutual fund due to the fund minimum.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vide...osophy#Invest_early_and_often_.28Rule_.232.29

I would watch these videos. The best part about investing this way is that it is super easy, takes very little time, and so long as the market does well you will do well.

If you are investing out of SK I really have no idea what options are available to you to do this. I am in the US and use Vanguard. No fees or trading costs so long as you buy their funds, and their business model is much better than the competition.

I know nothing about researching individual stocks so I can't help you there

S&P is now slightly below the long-term trendline since December of 2012.

Be cautious out there guys.

Yup, I am actually market timing (gasp!). I have some money I want to invest in the market, but I am holding out to see if doomsday actually ends up happening. Seems pretty stupid to invest your money in the market now when the market has a good shot of tanking in 10 days.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Here's what I think would happen as a worst-case but oh so typical scenario, the kind of worst-case scenario that seem to happen sometimes just to teach us a lesson:

1- Markets crash during a sudden self-feeding panic, meaning more and more people pull cash out without knowing why.
2- We reach a point where a bailout is needed, quickly, to avoid some banks going bust, again.
3- Ooops, Republicans have to sign a paper drawn up by the President to save the banks, a la 2008, except they would look fucking stupid signing anything when they would be pointed at as being responsible for the crash.

Now two outcome are possible:

1- They don't sign anything, they pull the same stunt they have with the deficit ceiling, they blame Obama and dig their heels even more knowing that otherwise they can pretty much kiss 2016 and potentially the mid-term elections goodbye.

2- They sign it, surrender, followed by a political purge in the party. This would probably lead to a Tea Party 2; smaller, fewer backers, but a huge annoyance for the Republicans for years to come, with some goof at its head.

In either case, a lot of damage will have been done, but if we reach outcome #1, it will be almost-funny levels of damage, who knows what the consequences would be.

 

[FireAndBlood]

Markets seem safe. Treasury yields are still low, which is an indicator investors still have confidence.

Though VIX has moved above 20. Is Oct.16th a good time to buy?

 

[teiresias]

So I don't frequent this thread at all, I'm not much of an investor outside of my retirement accounts where i tend to the targeted retirement index funds. However, I'm wondering if anyone has any advice when it comes to us Federal Employees that are in TSP (the government 401k essentially).

My main question is, ahead of large possible market action due to the default, should I be moving alot of my TSP account into the G-fund?

G-Fund =

The G Fund invests exclusively in a nonmarketable short-term U.S. Treasury security that is specially issued to the TSP. The earnings consist entirely of interest income on the security.

Currently, the majority of my account is held in the C, S, and I funds.

The C Fund assets are held in a separate account and managed to fully replicate the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index. The earnings consist primarily of dividend income and gains (or losses) in the price of stocks.

The S Fund invests in a stock index fund that tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. The earnings consist of dividend income and gains (or losses) in the price of stocks.

The I Fund invests in a stock index fund that fully replicates the Morgan Stanley Capital International EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index. The earnings consist of gains (or losses) in the price of stocks, dividend income, and change in the relative value of currencies.

Said about G-Funds:

The G Fund and the Debt Limit

The total amount of debt that the U.S. Treasury can issue to the public and to Federal agencies is limited by law. In recent years this limit—and what to do when it has been reached—has been discussed in the news with increasing frequency. What does it have to do with the G Fund?

The G Fund is invested in short-term U.S. Treasury securities specially issued to the TSP. As a result, the G Fund can be affected when the statutory debt limit is reached. However, the principal and interest payments on these securities are guaranteed by the U.S. Government.

When it reaches the debt limit, the Treasury has to find ways to manage its cash and borrowing so that it can continue funding government activities. One of the many ways it can do this is by suspending investments of the G Fund. As a G Fund investor, you should know that if the Treasury takes this action, your investment is always protected, and your G Fund earnings are fully guaranteed by law under the Thrift Savings Plan Investment Act of 1987. Your G Fund account balance would be exactly the same from day- to-day as if it were invested in Treasury securities. It will continue to accrue earnings and be updated each business day, and loans and withdrawals will be unaffected.

So it almost sounds, just to be safe, one may want to temporarily move into the G-Fun whole hog and buy back into the market once we're around the bend - and out of the woods hopefully.

Does anyone have an opinion on this? Thanks guys.

 

[Shanks D Zoro]

Well, I would definitely consider index investing if I were you. Unlike actively managed mutual funds, you will not be piggy-backing on to someone elses work. These funds follow an index.

For example, an SP 500 fund follows the top 500 companies in america. It does this without a manager and that keeps fees (super important) insanely low. A Total Stock market fund follows the entire American stock market. Or you could even follow a total world stock, which invests in, well, basically all the world's compaines (I am sure they are missing a few).

The issue with investing 1000 bucks is that you will not be diversified. thats super important. Investing in many companies is a lot less risky than investing in one company. Investing in one of the above ETfs will give you instant diversification. And you'll probably have to go with ETFs instead of a mutual fund due to the fund minimum.

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vide...osophy#Invest_early_and_often_.28Rule_.232.29

I would watch these videos. The best part about investing this way is that it is super easy, takes very little time, and so long as the market does well you will do well.

If you are investing out of SK I really have no idea what options are available to you to do this. I am in the US and use Vanguard. No fees or trading costs so long as you buy their funds, and their business model is much better than the competition.

I know nothing about researching individual stocks so I can't help you there



Yup, I am actually market timing (gasp!). I have some money I want to invest in the market, but I am holding out to see if doomsday actually ends up happening. Seems pretty stupid to invest your money in the market now when the market has a good shot of tanking in 10 days.

Thanks,

http://funds.internaxx.lu/7ewijz3hcu/etfreport/default.aspx?id=0P0000P0NL&SecurityToken=0P0000P0NL]22]0]UNIVE$$ALL_1282&ClientFund=0&LanguageId=en-GB&CurrencyId=EUR&UniverseId=UNIVE$$ALL_1282&BaseCurrencyId=USD

So this would be an example of the type of ETF you were talking about????

 

[Cloudy]

What is going on with nflx the last few days?

 

[No Love]

God damn. Anyone that isn't in ACYD (soon Wialan) needs to get in ASAP. I have been in since 0057 a couple weeks ago, and it just hit 2.49c. This will hit 10-30c in the next month IMO.

Go look at the chart, shit is cray cray. I've made well over $13k on this so far, looks like 100k+ profit in the next few weeks. Gonna be hard to decide whether to hold on for the long term capital gains tax rate or to cash out...

 

[ShOcKwAvE]

What is going on with nflx the last few days?

Same thing as the entire market: concerns about US shutdown and debt limit.

 

[Sanky Panky]

Markets seem safe. Treasury yields are still low, which is an indicator investors still have confidence.

Though VIX has moved above 20. Is Oct.16th a good time to buy?

I think things are evolving for the worse. The 1M Treasury yield is now above the 1M Libor rate (borrowing at treasury and lending at libor is a losing proposition right now), so the effects on the shadow banking system (repo markets, money market funds, etc) could get really nasty, really quick. We'll see how the 10yr auction does today.

Here is a great article talking about the many consequences and alternatives:

http://bawerk.net/?p=200

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

God damn. Anyone that isn't in ACYD (soon Wialan) needs to get in ASAP. I have been in since 0057 a couple weeks ago, and it just hit 2.49c. This will hit 10-30c in the next month IMO.

Go look at the chart, shit is cray cray. I've made well over $13k on this so far, looks like 100k+ profit in the next few weeks. Gonna be hard to decide whether to hold on for the long term capital gains tax rate or to cash out...

How many shares did you buy to get $100k in profit? I get the feeling it's going to be hard to cash out at that rate.

 

[Ether_Snake]

God damn. Anyone that isn't in ACYD (soon Wialan) needs to get in ASAP. I have been in since 0057 a couple weeks ago, and it just hit 2.49c. This will hit 10-30c in the next month IMO.

Go look at the chart, shit is cray cray. I've made well over $13k on this so far, looks like 100k+ profit in the next few weeks. Gonna be hard to decide whether to hold on for the long term capital gains tax rate or to cash out...

Look at the 10 year chart, lol.

Today I sold a lot of my positions. Only kept some gold and diamond, PBR, NKE, KO, CAE.

Will buy back into ADSK later when/if it drops lower. Other than that I'm waiting to put some money, maybe next week, in TSLA, SCTY, TAN, SSYS, and DDD. This will be for a higher risk investment but I want to get in.

 

[Piecake]

Thanks,

http://funds.internaxx.lu/7ewijz3hcu/etfreport/default.aspx?id=0P0000P0NL&SecurityToken=0P0000P0NL]22]0]UNIVE$$ALL_1282&ClientFund=0&LanguageId=en-GB&CurrencyId=EUR&UniverseId=UNIVE$$ALL_1282&BaseCurrencyId=USD

So this would be an example of the type of ETF you were talking about????

Yea, but I wouldnt invest in that if that is your only fund. Small caps means small companies so its more volatile than most. Its better than investing in one or a few companies, but just because you are investing in a more volatile etf doesnt mean that you'll get better returns.

 

[Mengy]

God damn. Anyone that isn't in ACYD (soon Wialan) needs to get in ASAP. I have been in since 0057 a couple weeks ago, and it just hit 2.49c. This will hit 10-30c in the next month IMO.

Look at the 10 year chart, lol.

Yeah, the trend up could just be due to new of the sale and the new policy of Wialan buying back stock themselves until the value has increased by 300%, which it looks like it already has to me. My guess is that any continued rise is just due to investors hopping on, and it will soon fall back down again to around .015 or so.

In other words, we've already missed the boat most likely.

 

[No Love]

How many shares did you buy to get $100k in profit? I get the feeling it's going to be hard to cash out at that rate.

Enough. I'll sell on the way up.

Look at the 10 year chart, lol.

Today I sold a lot of my positions. Only kept some gold and diamond, PBR, NKE, KO, CAE.

Will buy back into ADSK later when/if it drops lower. Other than that I'm waiting to put some money, maybe next week, in TSLA, SCTY, TAN, SSYS, and DDD. This will be for a higher risk investment but I want to get in.

Yeah, the trend up could just be due to new of the sale and the new policy of Wialan buying back stock themselves until the value has increased by 300%, which it looks like it already has to me. My guess is that any continued rise is just due to investors hopping on, and it will soon fall back down again to around .015 or so.

In other words, we've already missed the boat most likely.

Up trend is due to the float being locked pretty tight and Wialan working on contracts with Hughes (multi-billion dollar company) and having pending news announcements. Also, new ticker + symbol coming.

According to the CEO, Wialan has a bunch of contracts ready to go, they just need to be signed and finalized. CEO is very transparent and legit. So far, so good.

Also, they plan to have another conference call at the end of this month so I expect it to keep surging as they reveal what business contracts they have worked out and give details of future deals in the conference call.

Exciting stuff for sure. I'll update you guys as it goes on. I wish I had dumped another $10k in at the 1c level.

 

[No Love]

ACYD ended day at 3.55c... Jesus. Made like $20k today alone.

End of week + next week is going to be insane.

 

[GhaleonEB]

In January I do my annual re-balancing. And for our ROTH accounts (IRA and 401k), I'm debating the mix of bonds vs. stock index funds. We don't plan to start drawing down the Roth for at least a good 25 years, so I'm not worried about short or even long term volatility, which are one of the main reasons to own bonds. So I'm inclined to be pretty aggressive with stock indexes (a mix of US total market and international).

Another factor are the interest rates. I'm not one to time the market, but part of me wants to keep exposure pretty low for the next few years, until the Fed steps off their 0% target. So my inclination is to go with ~10%, and then re-evaluate in a few years, when I'm 40, and possibly step up to 15%. Are there any good arguments for holding a greater share of bonds right now, in a very long term portfolio?

 

[Ether_Snake]

What my portfolio holdings consist of at the moment:

Diamonds mine: SWY
Oil/gas: PBR
Gold: DBP, GLD
Consumer products/apparel: KO, NKE
3D Printing: SSYS, DDD
Solar: SCTY, TAN
Cars: TSLA
Healthcare: BAX
Simulation: CAE

It's a bit messy right now, more risky than I would like, but I'm waiting a bit before adding safer investments because I don't like making too many purchases at the same time.

 

[Shanks D Zoro]

I will be moving into a new apartment next week and then will register with TD Direct Investing so that i can start investing. It is a lot easier to register with them then it is e trade and some others, and they are based in Lux, so it is better for me if I ever decide to move back to Europe. hopefully that should be done by November

I started looking more into ETFs and decided to go with your recommendations and will put $2000 in to 1/2 of them that follows the index. I will start researching more and more about them and try to find one that suits me.

I should have about another $5000 saved up around Jan/Feb, So will constantly be researching more companies and reading more about daily economic activities.

I will then add around $700-$1000 dollars a month or $1400-$2000 every two month.

So far I have mainly been looking at Sony, Disney, and Anglo American.

I would love for my account to be registered by the end of the month and for Sony's share price to fall around $15. I would definitely try and snap some up before their second quarter financials.

I would also like to have Disney as my long hold. from looking at their last four financials there revenue has grown each year and the cost of goods in relation to revenue has gone from 79$ to 73% so they are being more efficient.

Spoiler

I hope I am doing this right

They also now own the single biggest entertainment IP and with new Star Wars films soon to come with the potential for new games and merchandising along with Avenger sequels i am really hoping that the price will continue to grow.

 

[RumblingRosco]

-

 

[Ether_Snake]

All my 401k investments are doing well, I get around 8% to 10% a year easily. But with individual stocks, I'm not making or losing money. When you add dividends, gains and losses pretty much have all evened out, and that's because I tried to keep things "balanced". I had investments in some emerging market and North America vandguard ETFs made early this year, and quite frankly they suck.

So screw it, I pick companies I like from here on out. Tesla, Nike, CAE, ADSK, DDD, SSYS, etc., and only ETFs for sectors that are too volatile to pick specific companies, such as for the solar market.

THAT has worked for me every single time before. It's only when I try to "balance" things, such as through index-ETFs or just putting money in sectors I'm not yet invested in that I end up losing.

So for me:
401k = steady growth, moving things around twice a year or so.
Rest = picking stocks I analyzed, and a + if they pay dividends.

Screw the whole "you can't beat the market" stuff, it's been false for me. Can't wait to get rid of more of the stuff I've been dragging around for a while (gold/mining/oil).

 

[Easystride]

I just started a Roth IRA this year after graduating college, and have maxed out for the year. Right now, I am just in a target retirement fund, but I think next year it would be better if I changed to some funds that issue dividends quarterly rather than annually, correct? Or should I wait until my third year when I will have (hopefully) over $15,000 and more ability to diversify between stock and bond funds.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Solar City up 20% today, one day after I bought some! Too bad I split my investment half-half between Solar City and TAN

 

[Cloudy]

Whoa NFLX

 

[RumblingRosco]

-

 

[Piecake]

There is no way to predict whether the price of stocks and bonds will go up or down over the next few days or weeks. But it is quite possible to foresee the broad course of the prices of these assets over longer time periods, such as, the next three to five years. These findings, which may seem both surprising and contradictory, were made and analyzed by this year’s Laureates, Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller.

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_pri...ureates/2013/popular-economicsciences2013.pdf

 

[CrankyJay]

Netflix blows my mind with what it did since the beginning of 2010. Huge rise, huge crash, huge rise.

I was eyeing it up at $75 last year...but damn that short thesis was looking good at the time. Damn.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Do I sell everything??? Do I sell everything??? Is there really a point in holding onto stocks at this point when you can just re-invest later if everything goes smooth?

 

[Mengy]

Do I sell everything??? Do I sell everything??? Is there really a point in holding onto stocks at this point when you can just re-invest later if everything goes smooth?

I sold quite a few of my positions this morning, about a third of my portfolio. They were all stocks that I've been contemplating getting out of for awhile now anyway, but I decided that now is the time to do it. Either the government reaches a deal and we are saved and the market does just fine, at which point I'll put the money into some much better stocks, or we go into default and the market crashes and I put that cash to use on a spending spree of great deals. I did keep all of the stocks that have been doing very well for me, most of my high dividend stocks with great long term trends.

I really think we are going into default though, the US government seems broken at this point. I'm even thinking of sending some more money into my Ameritrade account. If the market dips down enough I know I will.

 

[RevoDS]

Do I sell everything??? Do I sell everything??? Is there really a point in holding onto stocks at this point when you can just re-invest later if everything goes smooth?

Personally, if you're willing to try a slightly more exotic strategy, I think the best way to play this uncertainty would be to stay invested but buy a few lotto out-of-the-money puts on the SPY as a hedge.

Clearly, markets aren't pricing in the possibility of a default. If there's no deal, markets are going to seize up; I'd expect the S&P to revisit 1600 promptly, making November SPY 160 puts double or triple in the process, diminishing your losses quite a bit.

If, on the other hand, there is a deal, the volatility crunch will cause their value to collapse...but the rise of your stock portfolio will offset this.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yeah actually last week I sold a lot, but then bought the next day some other stocks I had my eyes on (Tesla, 3D printing and some solar) and it was a good move. But even after that I had still 1/5 of my investment money freed up. I just sold PEP and KO and BAX, even though I was waiting for BAX's earnings later this week before deciding, in the current context I don't think it matters, and KO released its earnings today and it didn't budge, while PEP was just to balance KO.

So since early last week I now have 1/3 of my money out of stocks. The loser stocks I still own are gold, so I'll keep that, and still have that crappy PBR which I'll just keep for whatever's sake, even if it makes no sense.

So I'm left with my solar, 3D printing, Tesla, NKE, CAE, and some gold. All of which (except gold maybe) would get crushed if a default happens, but whatever. I know I shouldn't feel attached to companies, but I can't help it with those

I don't want to short anything, I'm not comfortable with that or short-based ETFs, sadly.

edit: I moved all my 401k to obligations/certificates/stable investments. Worried that the time it takes for the transaction to be finished will take some time, never managed to know how long it really takes for the money to move.

 

[Cloudy]

If the market was gonna tank hard, we'd have seen it on Monday. The big boys told the GOP to stop screwin' around last week

 

[Ether_Snake]

I don't think it will be that simple. This thing will drag on for months. Only boost the market will get is extended QE. I'm probably not jumping back in until mid January.

 

[RevoDS]

If the market was gonna tank hard, we'd have seen it on Monday. The big boys told the GOP to stop screwin' around last week

The expectation is still for a last-minute deal, just like we had literally 20 minutes before the deadline in 2011.

As long as there's time (and thus hope), there's no reason for markets to sell off dramatically.

 

[CrankyJay]

The expectation is still for a last-minute deal, just like we had literally 20 minutes before the deadline in 2011.

As long as there's time (and thus hope), there's no reason for markets to sell off dramatically.

Even if they don't come to an agreement tonight, there will probably be a few days before the markets scramble.

 

[Ether_Snake]

SolarCity up 10% today, up 35% since I bought it last week. Woot! Just too bad I didn't put more cash in it and split it 50/50 with TAN but in my next round of investments I'll balance this 60% SCTY 40% TAN.

edit: BTW anyway thinks that while the fed MIGHT extend QE, there is the possibility that they will experiment with tapering since markets didn't fold under risk of default? Doesn't it give them some margin in this context to actually start tapering? And tapering can mean reducing the asset purchasing program in relative terms, meaning they can stretch the process for a long time while claiming they are "tapering".

 

[snack]

I'm thinking YELP, FB, or SCTY for my next big investment.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Gold rallying today, for whatever reason.

 

[Cloudy]

Look at GOOG. Wow...

 

[Ether_Snake]

Google will own the internet.

 

[Ovid]

Google will own the internet.

and the highways.

 

[Ether_Snake]

and the highways.

So that's the goal, make the cars self-driven so you can spend your travel time focused on advertising!

Next: Google sex-bots, and Google-dreams.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Damn, wish I had more GOOG. Screw this diversifying garbage!

 

[Mengy]

Damn, wish I had more GOOG. Screw this diversifying garbage!

Yeah, back when I bought into GOOG some part of me wanted to sell my entire portfolio and stuff it all into Google, but "never put your eggs into one basket" kept popping into my head so I didn't.

If only I had, wow. I mean don't get me wrong I've almost doubled the money I put into Google now, so I'm not too upset. But that profit could have been so much greater if I had only gone with my gut feeling.

Part of me wants to sell it all now and put all my money into GOOG even today, even at almost $1K per share. Is that as crazy as it sounds? Or will it keep going up and up and away?

 

[Onion_Relish]

Lol yoooooo Google. I bought one share at 893 a few months back. Just flogged it for a cool 100 dollars. Obviously wish I bought more!

 

[Ether_Snake]

What does it mean when there is an ever increasing gap between DOW/S&P/NASDAQ? Especially the NASDAQ VS the other two indicies, if you look back over the past couple of years.

My SCTY is up 50% since I bought last week. Calm down! Seriously if I had made all the investments I made last week much earlier I would have made some great profits by now (or not, cause I would not have sold anything anyway). I'm invested in the future I believe in!

 

[Erehtih]

If only I had bought my GOOG call options and stock in real markets and not only my class simulation..

 

[Mengy]

My SCTY is up 50% since I bought last week. Calm down! Seriously if I had made all the investments I made last week much earlier I would have made some great profits by now (or not, cause I would not have sold anything anyway). I'm invested in the future I believe in!

Yeah, SCTY really ramped up. I've been watching it for awhile but don't have anything into it. I wouldn't buy it now as I'm sure it's going to calm down and fall / level off soon. Wish I had bought some earlier though.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I think the markets will likely lose around 8%-10% in the near future. I'm only buying when the markets are down now anyway, so I'm waiting.

 

[RumblingRosco]

-

 

[Ether_Snake]

That's a rather significant amount to drop off. What makes you say this, and what timeline are you thinking for this?

Because oil prices have been going up rather steadily, and I expect them to rise faster now that a couple of hurdles have softened (US, Europe). Emerging markets seem to be stagnating somewhat compared to previous expectations (past couple of years), I don't expect Brazil or Russia to be able to do very well as issues there are IMO too deeply rooted to be dealt with short term, but I'm no expert.

My belief is that the world is not adapting quickly enough to renewable energy and as a result every time economic activity picks up oil prices rise to the point where they choke recovery by reducing discretionary income which is highly valuable to fuel recoveries (the worst the economy is doing, the more discretionary income has a positive impact since it is spread across a wider spectrum/feeds more sectors).

So emerging markets, with China being a big question mark, coupled with rising oil prices will IMO lead to stagnation, which will require fed intervention at a time when they were planning to start tapering. So either QE will end too soon, even if it is likely to be extended slightly in the near term, or QE/other measures might be limited because of an allergic political reaction to extended intervention at a time when an end was expected on the political side, even though it has made its proofs.

edit: Also I think the lack of market reaction to the risk of default will make some think that confidence has been restored, so I wouldn't be surprised if this even pushed further for limiting/ending QE.

edit2: Oh for a timeline, I think by late January at most.


Who knows though, I'm not analyst