I can't tell who is going to be winning here in Missouri. I've seen an equal amount of Cruz, Trump, and Rubio signs around the Kansas City area and one huge Ben Carson banner a few weeks ago. But then you have the rural areas which are practically impossible to predict. It'll be an interesting night, for sure.Whoa, I didn't realize this. That's pretty critical.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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March 15th could be a big day for Bernie, but not "overcome the delegate difference" kind of big. Just big like maybe close the non-super delegate gap a bit, but I still don't think that even happens. I mean it's ~600 to ~400 right now without superdelegates which is still a big gap.
Outside of his bubble in the northeast he doesn't win by a lot when he wins a state. Winner take most states throw an interesting component into it though.
Outside of his bubble in the northeast he doesn't win by a lot when he wins a state. Winner take most states throw an interesting component into it though.
Whoa, I didn't realize this. That's pretty critical.
I think that's only for the Republicans. I think for the Democrats Illinois and Missouri are still proportional. I might be wrong though.
First votes are coming in for Kansas: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results?ref=politics
Someone should make a thread for today's primaries/caucuses.
I'll make a thread in 20 minutes if no one else does.
Politico is also posting results:
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president?lo=ut_d1
this is the thread for the results
¯\_(ツ
_/¯I had just assumed there should be a separate one from the Tuesday contests.
In "way too soon to matter" news, Cruz is currently ahead in Maine and Kansas.
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/kansas
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/706184971044540416
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/706211841295433728
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/kansas
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/706184971044540416
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/706211841295433728
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
Both caucuses, right? Trump usually does poorly in those.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Cruz winning Kansas is not surprising since the Midwest is Trump's weakest are. Kasich nearly trying Rubio would be something.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
If trump doesn't get above 20%, does he not get delegates? In Kansas.
They are also closed (registered Republicans only), which has favored Cruz against Trump. Independents and Dems can't participate.
Expect the media to talk about this topic more in the coming days if Cruz does well today.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
It's 10%.
Cruz could possibly be the first candidate to win over 50% if these numbers hold relatively close.
Huh? 538 has him behind like... A ton in the big states for March 15th. Like, not even remotely close last I looked, which was yesterday. Closest was like within 15 points or so, Hillary leading. What states other than Ohio, NC, Florida, and Illinois vote that day, and how far just he be ahead to even be a possibility he makes up delegates that day?
Or, said differently, how many delegates do those "winner take most" states have that it would even make a tie for that day of primaries?
Prodigal Son
Member
Okay so I took some really heavy shit that may or may not be drug related and I just woke up. What the fuck is going on guys. Are results coming in? How's it look?
And Trumped skipped CPAC to do a rally in Kansas.
Kind of a bad look if he loses. Even more so if he gets wiped out.
Kansas is at 8% right now. Cruz at 3000 votes while Trump has 1500. So it's looking good for Cruz there.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
Shit man youve been out for a while. Trumps already getting sworn into office today.
I don't think it will be close, just was responding to the general "he still has a chance!" sentiment with what I would consider a realistic "big" day for him.
Prodigal Son
Member
Damn.
Was that expected?
I've stored up more pills for just the occasion.
And Trumped skipped CPAC to do a rally in Kansas.
Kind of a bad look if he loses. Even more so if he gets wiped out.
2008: Huckabee (59.6%), McCain (23.5%) - http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/KS.html
2012: Santorum (51.2%), Romney (20.9%) - http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/kansas
Kansas is an outlier state.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Not entirely unexpected given the location and it being a closed caucus, but there was almost no polling done whatsoever.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Trump only had a slighter high chance of winning, but many expected Cruz to win based on Oklahoma and Trump performing poorly in the Midwest.
Interesting. Cruz probably should have been more favored going in. He's squarely in the Huckabee/Santorum lane.
God knows why Trump choose Kansas as his alternative to CPAC. Bad optics.
Prodigal Son
Member
Ohh I see, sorry I'm dumb
RPGCrazied
Member
Trump losing, yesssssss.
Mulitple news agencies have already called it for Cruz.
Delegates are proportionally allocated though.
Single issue voters. The democratic candidates are "ok with killing babies" if you buy into the evangelical view of abortion. I've talked to some folks who feel that way, they say they'll "never consider voting for baby murder" and thus will vote republican regardless of any other issues.
She has 1 pledged super delegate there.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
That's probably a super.
Would you rather have a machine counting them? I wouldn't. As untrustworthy as people are computers could be programed to do far worse. And yeah, there probably is some cheating in primaries, but it's probably very small, and it's not from the top down. IE Hillary is not advocating for cheating. Or do you think a canidate or party does cheat?
It looks like the negative advertising might actually be hurting Trump. Also, Kasich is actually beating Rubio is early results. It will be insane if Rubio loses FL and Kasich wins OH and Rubio is forced to drop out.
Also, what is the rules on releasing delegates? Can you instruct them to vote for you who endorse?
Also, what is the rules on releasing delegates? Can you instruct them to vote for you who endorse?
That's Sam Brownback.
The "dream" only has an bedazzled coffin ordered for it at this juncture. It's not actually inside the coffin yet.
Bedameister
Member
So what results do we get today? What time?
OpinionatedCyborg
Member
Not possible* since all of the states are proportional.
* It's probably technically possible, but it would entail Cruz getting close to all of the vote and everyone else not meeting the minimum vote percentage to get delegates.
Is it? There were no polls in Maine and it's a closed caucus, which doesn't favor Trump. Trump does have the governor's endorsement, though.
Shocking that Cruz is doing so well? I've read that the Maine Republican base is more similar to the midwest than the northeast, so it would make sense for Cruz to do well there if that's true.
e: only 4.5% reporting. Cruz at 48%, Trump at 35%. Kasich and Rubio both below the 10% threshold. Cruz near the 50% winner-take-all threshold.
No. Cruz won't overtake Trump tonight. There are 168 delegates up for grabs and almost all are proportional.
I could technically see cruz winning at least 80 delegates tonight, but donald probably going to win one or two states which will make it harder for cruz to beat him. Rubio's getting destroyed in Maine looking at the results right now. The gap between second and third will most likely increase tonight even if cruz does not catch up to donald.
Yea, Rubio is looking more like a sacrificial lamb right now. He keeps attacking Trump even though it is hurting his numbers too. I don't know what the RNC leaders are even hoping for at this point. Kasichi/Rubio?
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