Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Whoa, I didn't realize this. That's pretty critical.

AcS7ysn.png
I can't tell who is going to be winning here in Missouri. I've seen an equal amount of Cruz, Trump, and Rubio signs around the Kansas City area and one huge Ben Carson banner a few weeks ago. But then you have the rural areas which are practically impossible to predict. It'll be an interesting night, for sure.
 
March 15th could be a big day for Bernie, but not "overcome the delegate difference" kind of big. Just big like maybe close the non-super delegate gap a bit, but I still don't think that even happens. I mean it's ~600 to ~400 right now without superdelegates which is still a big gap.

Outside of his bubble in the northeast he doesn't win by a lot when he wins a state. Winner take most states throw an interesting component into it though.
 
Does anyone know who is going to win tonight, my guess is Trump is taking Louisiana and Maine, Cruz will take Kansas and Kentucky
 
Whoa, I didn't realize this. That's pretty critical.

AcS7ysn.png

March 15th could be a big day for Bernie, but not "overcome the delegate difference" kind of big. Just big like maybe close the non-super delegate gap a bit, but I still don't think that even happens. I mean it's ~600 to ~400 right now without superdelegates which is still a big gap.

Outside of his bubble in the northeast he doesn't win by a lot when he wins a state. Winner take most states throw an interesting component into it though.

I think that's only for the Republicans. I think for the Democrats Illinois and Missouri are still proportional. I might be wrong though.
 
Is it true that Rubio only has an incredibly low 33% approval rating in Florida?

There is a few special guests at this Trump rally he has going on in Florida right now...

CraftyDisloyalAfricanelephant.gif


xQwlzKk.png
BtNK5Hv.png


TAY2JJS.png
 
Hillary is probably off somewhere pleasuring herself to this Trump speech.

This is the most time he's spent on Hillary. Let the fear seep in, Trump. Bathe in it.
 
March 15th could be a big day for Bernie, but not "overcome the delegate difference" kind of big. Just big like maybe close the non-super delegate gap a bit, but I still don't think that even happens. I mean it's ~600 to ~400 right now without superdelegates which is still a big gap.

Outside of his bubble in the northeast he doesn't win by a lot when he wins a state. Winner take most states throw an interesting component into it though.

Huh? 538 has him behind like... A ton in the big states for March 15th. Like, not even remotely close last I looked, which was yesterday. Closest was like within 15 points or so, Hillary leading. What states other than Ohio, NC, Florida, and Illinois vote that day, and how far just he be ahead to even be a possibility he makes up delegates that day?
Or, said differently, how many delegates do those "winner take most" states have that it would even make a tie for that day of primaries?
 
Why do evangelicals tend to vote for these dysfunctional people? How can anyone look at Rubio and Cruz and think they're honest/genuine people. At least trump is honest about being an asshole.
 
Okay so I took some really heavy shit that may or may not be drug related and I just woke up. What the fuck is going on guys. Are results coming in? How's it look?
 
Huh? 538 has him behind like... A ton in the big states for March 15th. Like, not even remotely close last I looked, which was yesterday. Closest was like within 15 points or so, Hillary leading. What states other than Ohio, NC, Florida, and Illinois vote that day, and how far just he be ahead to even be a possibility he makes up delegates that day?

I don't think it will be close, just was responding to the general "he still has a chance!" sentiment with what I would consider a realistic "big" day for him.
 
It's crazy that this shit gets counted manually by individuals who are clearly bias towards their pick. Does anybody think that people don't cheat in these primaries?
 
How does the Dem kansas thing work?
Politico is saying 0% reported yet Hillary has 1 delegate
 
Why do evangelicals tend to vote for these dysfunctional people? How can anyone look at Rubio and Cruz and think they're honest/genuine people. At least trump is honest about being an asshole.

Single issue voters. The democratic candidates are "ok with killing babies" if you buy into the evangelical view of abortion. I've talked to some folks who feel that way, they say they'll "never consider voting for baby murder" and thus will vote republican regardless of any other issues.

How does the Dem kansas thing work?
Politico is saying 0% reported yet Hillary has 1 delegate

She has 1 pledged super delegate there.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
 
It's crazy that this shit gets counted manually by individuals who are clearly bias towards their pick. Does anybody think that people don't cheat in these primaries?

Would you rather have a machine counting them? I wouldn't. As untrustworthy as people are computers could be programed to do far worse. And yeah, there probably is some cheating in primaries, but it's probably very small, and it's not from the top down. IE Hillary is not advocating for cheating. Or do you think a canidate or party does cheat?
 
It looks like the negative advertising might actually be hurting Trump. Also, Kasich is actually beating Rubio is early results. It will be insane if Rubio loses FL and Kasich wins OH and Rubio is forced to drop out.

Also, what is the rules on releasing delegates? Can you instruct them to vote for you who endorse?
 
So is it possibly for Cruz to pass Trump tonight in the delegate count or will Louisiana prevent that from happening.
 
So is it possibly for Cruz to pass Trump tonight in the delegate count or will Louisiana prevent that from happening.

Not possible* since all of the states are proportional.

* It's probably technically possible, but it would entail Cruz getting close to all of the vote and everyone else not meeting the minimum vote percentage to get delegates.
The only real shocking thing so far is Maine.
Is it? There were no polls in Maine and it's a closed caucus, which doesn't favor Trump. Trump does have the governor's endorsement, though.

Shocking that Cruz is doing so well? I've read that the Maine Republican base is more similar to the midwest than the northeast, so it would make sense for Cruz to do well there if that's true.

e: only 4.5% reporting. Cruz at 48%, Trump at 35%. Kasich and Rubio both below the 10% threshold. Cruz near the 50% winner-take-all threshold.
 
So is it possibly for Cruz to pass Trump tonight in the delegate count or will Louisiana prevent that from happening.

No. Cruz won't overtake Trump tonight. There are 168 delegates up for grabs and almost all are proportional.
 
Not possible* since all of the states are proportional.

* It's probably technically possible, but it would entail Cruz getting close to all of the vote and everyone else not meeting the minimum vote percentage to get delegates.

I could technically see cruz winning at least 80 delegates tonight, but donald probably going to win one or two states which will make it harder for cruz to beat him. Rubio's getting destroyed in Maine looking at the results right now. The gap between second and third will most likely increase tonight even if cruz does not catch up to donald.
 
I could technically see cruz winning at least 80 delegates tonight, but donald probably going to win one or two states which will make it harder for cruz to beat him. Rubio's getting destroyed in Maine looking at the results right now. The gap between second and third will most likely increase tonight even if cruz does not catch up to donald.

Yea, Rubio is looking more like a sacrificial lamb right now. He keeps attacking Trump even though it is hurting his numbers too. I don't know what the RNC leaders are even hoping for at this point. Kasichi/Rubio?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom