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[Ether_Snake]

I'm calling it:

November 2016
Sanders VS Kasich VS Trump

 

[MThanded]

Clinton team said they are expecting a loss

Earlier they had someone on CNN( about 7pm ET). He was representing the campaign and seemed to believe that this was either going to be a loss or barely a win. So the campaign must have seen something in internal polling. At least some momentum.

 

[perfectchaos007]

91% in, 24k lead!!

She's making her move!!

 

[giga]

Bernie won Michigan, the right thing for Hillary to do is drop out of the race.

agreed

 

[Epsilon-delta]

Nate Silver walking it back, lol



Mmmhmm

The man has a hard time admitting when he's wrong. Nothing new here.

 

[brainchild]

You must not know much about how 538 works. Nate and the crew do a great job weighting the polls and they take all this into account.

Well, this unprecedented upset shows that they clearly didn't this time, lol

Anyway, I'm very familiar with how 538 works, and I'm saying that the weights don't even matter. ALL of the recent polls showed Clinton ahead by double digit margins. This isn't about luck, the polls were simply inaccurate.

 

[MThanded]

Nate Silver walking it back, lol



Mmmhmm

How is that walking it back?

Now yall hate nate silver? He's not a pollster.

 

[psynergylover]

clinton just cut like 10k off

 

[Blader]

Because he isn't as terrible as a liberal message board would have you believe

Did you have to raise your hand and swear fealty to the Donald before posting that?

 

[Y2Kev]

Nate Silver walking it back, lol



Mmmhmm

Hes a poll aggregator. You keep making this mistake.

 

[Brinbe]

I never thought the polling was right either. this seemed like a state that did play well to Bernie's strengths. I think Illinois and other midwestern states will be favorable to him too.

But as long as she cleans up the South, it won't matter. Her lead is insurmountable at this point.

The media is gonna overplay this to a stupid degree though. Which is annoying.

 

[RobotHaus]

I'm calling it:

November 2016
Sanders VS Kasich VS Trump

It's going to be a 4 horse race. Bernie, Hillary, Trump, and whoever the GOP wants.

 

[Dennis]

Bernie won Michigan, the right thing for Hillary to do is drop out of the race.

Hillary is the Democratic Rubio.

 

[Loudninja]

Hes a poll aggregator. You keep making this mistake.

Yeah I was about to say lol.

 

[Prodigal Son]

I'm calling it:

November 2016
Sanders VS Kasich VS Trump

lolno dude

This is a big deal but not big enough to fuck Hillary's lead. We still got a long race ahead.

 

[carlsojo]

I'm calling it:

November 2016
Sanders VS Kasich VS Trump

That would be so fucking awful.

 

[sk3]

How is Cruz edging up to Kasich in MI?

Weirdos out in west michigan.

 

[Miles X]

Well, this unprecedented upset shows that they clearly didn't this time, lol

Anyway, I'm very familiar with how 538 works, and I'm saying that the weights don't even matter. ALL of the recent polls showed Clinton ahead by double digit margins. This isn't about luck, the polls were simply inaccurate.

They did? They can only go on what the polls are saying.

What, you expected them to predict this based on all the polls being in Clintons favour??

 

[Alcibiades]

If Trump is so terrible why is he getting so many votes?

Some portion of the U. S. population is fed up with politicians, lobbyists, and corruption. Authentic or not, he is projecting an "outsider" status.

Same reason Sanders is getting a lot of votes against Clinton.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

In primary history.

Decision Desk needs to hide in a corner for awhile. Their reputation should be ruined.

They were following what every major poll was saying. Their metrology was fine, it's the data that appears to be innaccurate.

 

[Schattenjäger]

Look, I get that some of the things Trump says might seem reasonable to you. But "Ban Muslims from entering the US" is as terrible as you can get. Sure, he might not believe it, but it's the most insane thing I've heard coming out of politician's mouth.

We aren't talking about me

We are talking about the millions of votes already placed for trump

 

[Ashodin]

Hes a poll aggregator. You keep making this mistake.

Keep?

 

[Sheroking]

Hillary is the Democratic Rubio.

Except she's still winning.

I hope Bernie somehow runs this back, but...

 

[massoluk]

The man has a hard time admitting when he's wrong. Nothing new here.

He's not wrong about anything, he just collects polls

 

[DragonSworne]

So how did Sanders campaign know that the polling results were off/wrong but 538 didn't?

 

[SolarPowered]

How is that walking it back?

Now yall hate nate silver? He's not a pollster.

No one said anything about hating him.

 

[maabus1999]

Nate Silver walking it back, lol



Mmmhmm

7% of the GOP exit polls were Democrats, so yes it is a valid point. Been said multiple times. Turnout is low due to open primaries and people know Hillary is inevitable by the Delegate math and in truth probably not that excited to go vote for her versus the circus on the GOP side. Bernie has a very enthusiastic crowd though.

 

[Kickz]

WE GOT THIS HILL FAM

91% in hooooooooold!!!!!

 

[Orbis Tabula]

The debate, and his 3 recent victories also gave him some momentum here.

One thing I do know is that the campaign and his supporters were really pushing for viability in Mississippi and to narrow the loss in Michigan by as much as possible. I know they've been working hard. (Myself included, been phonebanking and textbanking and facebanking and blah blah blah.)

I think the narrative around the "terrible BernieBros" (and there are certainly terrible ones) has been a bummer mostly because it's caused people to disregard the amazing organization efforts of the Sanders subreddit. For a group of people who are all volunteering, without much experience in doing elections, I've been in awe of their passion and organization.

 

[Kusagari]

Bernie was at 49% with young black voters in Michigan.

Closest he's come with a black demographic to an outright win.

 

[MThanded]

Well, this unprecedented upset shows that they clearly didn't this time, lol

Anyway, I'm very familiar with how 538 works, and I'm saying that the weights don't even matter. ALL of the recent polls showed Clinton ahead by double digit margins. This isn't about luck, the polls were simply inaccurate.

So its not their fault if thats the case. I'm glad we agree.

No one said anything about hating him.

Hating is probably more appropriate. The slang.

 

[mo60]

It looks like trump is crushing everyone else in idaho now. Rubio is also fighting with Kasich yet again for last place.

 

[Y2Kev]

Keep?

Yes. Twice now Ive seen you comment on 538 as losing credibility. Do you understand what they do?

 

[nib95]

Well I guess those saying Bernie was done or would face a big hit after his poor Black comments were misplaced after all. In the end it turns out many people recognise it was a simple slip up, and still likely understood the greater merit of his point, which was ultimately still a noble one.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

It's going to be a 4 horse race. Bernie, Hillary, Trump, and whoever the GOP wants.

Then whoever the GOP wants wins the presidency. The house would pick the president.

 

[Sub_Level]

What the fuck just turned the tv on and Bernie is winning Michigan?

LOL

 

[Valhelm]

Can I just say that the reason why Bernie is winning Michigan is because of young people? And the open primary aspect of it, still I think the former carries more weight to it.

Young people are finally going out to vote, and they vote Sanders.

This is why the polls are wrong.

Am I wrong in believing that? I also think this paints a rather dire picture for Hilary's campaign truth be told...

This is my guess. Young voters are particularly likely to lack partisan affiliation, and smart groundwork in Michigan gave him a competitive edge in an open primary (particularly among suburban kids who aren't black).

Hillary can still win the state, but that seems less likely with every minute. Even if this is another Iowa for Bernie, anything other than a large Hillary win is a problem for her campaign.

Can Hillary tap into these young independents in the general?

 

[maabus1999]

So how did Sanders campaign know that the polling results were off/wrong but 538 didn't?

They didn't....look at his hasty press conference. They thought they were going to loose too. There is a lot of shocking pieces of this result. Has to be the open primary here that didn't get modeled by polls better.

 

[danm999]

Well, this unprecedented upset shows that they clearly didn't this time, lol

Anyway, I'm very familiar with how 538 works, and I'm saying that the weights don't even matter. ALL of the recent polls showed Clinton ahead by double digit margins. This isn't about luck, the polls were simply inaccurate.

Even the polls the Sanders campaign was pointing to (Michigan State) had Clinton with a 5 point lead.

Basically all pollsters got it wrong. A historic upset it looks like.

 

[Epsilon-delta]

They were following what every major poll was saying. Their metrology was fine, it's the data that appears to be innaccurate.

No, their methodology was bad. You do not mess up this big in primary history.

 

[boiled goose]

In primary history.

Decision Desk needs to hide in a corner for awhile. Their reputation should be ruined.

Illinois, Ohio.
Bernie is coming.

Hillary still favored but her and her fans are feeling the Bern.

 

[Baron Aloha]

18-29 turned out equal to 65+, nice.

 

[SlimySnake]

Chuck Todd is freaking me out. He's saying Trump will steal the same voters Bernie stole from her today.

Sherrod Brown of Ohio as VP. Not a bad choice. She cannot make the same mistake Kerry made and lose ohio. Sherrod Brown can deliver ohio for sure.

Well I guess those saying Bernie was done or would face a big hit after his poor Black comments were misplaced after all. In the end it turns out many people recognise it was a simple slip up, and still likely understood the greater merit of his point, which was ultimately still a noble one.

I am glad i didnt post even once in that thread. that was such a non-issue.

 

[SolarPowered]

Hillary is the Democratic Rubio.

Except she is smart enough to use an Intel processor unlike Rubio. AMD will never keep up with Trump.

 

[Goodstyle]

What does this massive upset mean for Clinton's polling in other States? Should we trust them, or is it anyone's game at this point?

 

[Ashodin]

Yes. Twice now Ive seen you comment on 538 as losing credibility. Do you understand what they do?

I understand what they do, but this was the first time I've quoted Nate Silver specifically.

Basically what is going to happen is that a lot could be up in the air next week.

 

[Kusagari]

Cruz up in Idaho, Trump in third.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

No, their methodology was bad. You do not mess up this big in primary history.

You do when the data is bad. They only build models from data.

 

[Alcander]

This is seriously crazy. How could the polls have been so inaccurate?

 

[eyeball_kid]

How many polls post-debate still showed such a big lead for Clinton? It's pretty stunning if this was completely out of left field.